Download Concerns On The IPCC Report: The Actual State Of Climate Science

Concerns On The IPCC Report:
The Actual State
Of Climate Science
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO
Conference with Respect to the United Nations
Climate Change Conference (COP 15)
Copenhagen, Denmark
6 December 2009
Human-Caused Climate
Change Has Become One Of
The Highest Political
Priorities in the United
States and Worldwide
“Climate change is a clear and
present danger to our world that
demands immediate attention.
Facts on the ground are
outstripping worse-case scenario
models that were developed only a
few years ago.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/
My Conclusion
I agree that there is no question
that human activity is resulting in
an increase in the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases
including carbon dioxide [CO2]
Science Organizations Remind
Senators of the Consensus on
Climate Change”
“Observations throughout the world
make it clear that climate change
is occurring, and rigorous scientific
research demonstrates that the
greenhouse gases emitted by
human activities are the primary
driver.
http://www.agu.org/journals/eo/eo0944/2009EO440008.pdf#anchor
Hypothesis #1
• The
human
influence
on
climate
variability and change is of minimal
importance, and natural causes dominate
climate variations and changes on all
time scales. In coming decades, the
human influence will continue to be
minimal
Hypothesis #2
• Although the natural causes of climate
variations and changes are undoubtedly
important, the human influences are
significant and are dominated by the
emission of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, the most important of
which is carbon dioxide. The impact of
these gases on regional and global
climate constitutes the primary climate
issue for the coming decades
Hypothesis #3
• Although the natural causes of climate
variation and changes are undoubtedly
important,
human
influences
are
significant and involve a diverse range
of first-order climate forcings, including,
but not dominated by the human input
of CO22. Most, if not all, of these human
influences on regional and global
climate will continue to be of concern
during the coming decades.
Only ONE of these
hypotheses can be correct
Important Findings
• Climate Variability and Change Are
Much More Than Global Warming or
Cooling
• Even with Global Warming only about
25-30% (my analysis), 40% (Shindell
et al. 2009) or 58% (the IPCC view) is
from CO22
[http://www.climatesci.org/publications/presentations/PPT-69.pdf]
[http://www.climatesci.org/publications/presentations/PPT-69.pdf]
• Humans Produce Both Global Warming
and Global Cooling Forcings
National Research Council, 2005: Radiative
Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the
Concept and Addressing Uncertainties,
Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on
Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224
pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From:
From: National
National Research
Research Council,
Council, 2005:
2005: Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing of
of Climate
Climate
Change:
Change: Expanding
Expanding the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee
on
on Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing Effects
Effects on
on Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate Research
Research Committee,
Committee, 224
224
pp.
pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
Examples Of Important
Non- Greenhouse Gas
Climate Forcings
REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE
EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA
IN THE SUMMER
U.S.
U.S. Geological
Geological Survey
Survey land-cover
land-cover classes
classes for
for pre-1900’s
pre-1900’s natural
natural conditions
conditions (left)
(left)
and
and 1993
1993 land-use
land-use patterns
patterns (right).
(right). From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T.
Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change
on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon.
Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
Max and Min
Temp Trends
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
of
anthropogenic
land-cover
change
on
the
Florida
peninsula
sea
breezes
impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes
and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28
28 52.
52.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
Associated
Associated convective
convective rainfall
rainfall (mm)
(mm) from
from the
the model
model simulations
simulations of
of July-August
July-August
1973
1973 with
with pre-1900s
pre-1900s land
land cover
cover (top),
(top), 1993
1993 land
land use
use (middle),
(middle), and
and the
the
difference
difference field
field for
for the
the two
two (bottom;
(bottom; 1993
1993 minus
minus pre-1900s
pre-1900s case).
case). From
From
Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea
breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
Same
Same as
as previous
previous figure
figure except
except for
for July
July and
and August,
August, 1989.
1989. From
From Marshall,
Marshall,
C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of
anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and
warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
Two-month
Two-month average
average of
of the
the daily
daily maximum
maximum shelter-level
shelter-level temperature
temperature (°C)
(°C) from
from the
the
model
model simulations
simulations of
of Jul-Aug
Jul-Aug 1989
1989 with
with (top)
(top) natural
natural land
land cover,
cover, (middle)
(middle) current
current
land
land cover.
cover. From
From Marshall
Marshall et
et al.
al. 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover
change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather.
Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf
Conclusion:
Most locations in south and central
Florida are drier and warmer today
than they would be under the same
large-scale weather patterns prior to
the 20th century due just to
landscape change.
This Effect Of Landscape
Change Is A Global
Climate Change Issue
Albedo: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992
Historical
Patterns of
Broadband
Solar Albedo:
(a) 1650
(b) 1850
(c) 1920
(d) 1992
Source:
Source: Steyaert,
Steyaert, L.
L. T.,
T., and
and R.
R. G.
G. Knox,
Knox, 2008:
2008: Reconstructed
Reconstructed
historical
historical land
land cover
cover and
and biophysical
biophysical parameters
parameters for
for studies
studies of
of landlandatmosphere
interactions
within
the
eastern
United
States,
J.
atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res.,, 113,
113, D02101,
D02101,
doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
Surface Roughness Length: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992
Historical
Patterns of
Surface
Roughness
Length (cm):
(a) 1650
(b) 1850
(c) 1920
(d) 1992
Source:
Source: Steyaert,
Steyaert, L.
L. T.,
T., and
and R.
R. G.
G. Knox,
Knox, 2008:
2008: Reconstructed
Reconstructed historical
historical
land
land cover
cover and
and biophysical
biophysical parameters
parameters for
for studies
studies of
of land-atmosphere
land-atmosphere
interactions
interactions within
within the
the eastern
eastern United
United States,
States, J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., J.
J.
,
113,
D02101,
doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
Geophys.
Res.
Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
a.)
a.) Maximum
Maximum
temperature
temperature (ºC)
(ºC) with
with
1992
1992 land
land cover.
cover. Dashed
Dashed
box
box shows
shows area
area of
of
region
region 1
1 and
and solid
solid box
box
shows
shows area
area of
of region
region 2.
2.
Difference
Difference in
in maximum
maximum
temperature
temperature between
between
1992
1992 and
and b.)
b.) 1650,
1650, c.)
c.)
1850,
1850, d.)
d.) 1920.
1920. From
From
Strack,
Strack, J.E.,
J.E., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke
Sr,
Sr, L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and
R.G.
R.G. Knox,
Knox, 2008:
2008:
Sensitivity
Sensitivity of
of June
June nearnearsurface
surface temperatures
temperatures
and
and precipitation
precipitation in
in the
the
eastern
eastern United
United States
States to
to
historical
historical land
land cover
cover
changes
changes since
since European
European
settlement.
settlement. Water
Water
Resources
Resources Research,
Research, 44,
44,
W11401,
W11401, doi:10.1029/
doi:10.1029/
2007WR00654.
2007WR00654.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-330.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-330.pdf
Conclusion: The eastern
2/3 of the USA has
undergone major climate
change as a result of
landscape conversion
From: Adegoke, J.O., R.A.
Pielke Sr., and A.M.
Carleton, 2007:
Observational and
and modeling
modeling
studies of the impacts of
agriculture-related land use
change on climate in the
central U.S. Agric. Forest
Meteor., Special Issue, 132,
203-215.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wor
dpress.com/files/2009/10/
r-295.pdf
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Shortwave
Shortwave
aerosol
aerosol direct
direct radiative
radiative
forcing
forcing (ADRF)
(ADRF) for
for toptopof
of atmosphere
atmosphere (TOA),
(TOA),
surface,
surface, and
and
atmosphere.
atmosphere. From:
From:
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
Measurement-based
estimation
estimation of
of the
the
spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of
aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative
forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res.
Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL02
doi:10.1029/2006GL02
5974.
5974.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf
NGoRF
NGoRF
surface
surface
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(meri)
ADRF(meri)
NGoRF
NGoRF
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
Figure
Figure 5.
5. Comparison
Comparison of
of
the
the meridional
meridional and
and the
the
zonal
zonal component
component of
of NGoRF
NGoRF
between
between infrared
infrared GRF,
GRF,
shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF, and
and
10
15
20
shortwave AIRF
AIRF for
for
10
15
20 shortwave
distance
atmosphere
distance (degree)
(degree)
atmosphere and
and surface.
surface.
From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
AIRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
AIRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
Measurement-based
Measurement-based
AIRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
AIRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial
atmosphere
atmosphere
gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol
radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys.
Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL0259
doi:10.1029/2006GL0259
74.
74.
10
10
15
15
20
20
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf
In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found
from observations of the spatial distribution
of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower
latitudes, that the aerosol effect on
atmospheric circulations, as a result of their
alteration in the heating of regions of the
atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to
the heating effect of the human addition of
well-mixed greenhouse gases.
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the
spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf
Extensive peer-reviewed research has
shown that the focus on just carbon
dioxide as the dominate human climate
forcing is too narrow.
Hypothesis #1 and #2 are refuted
Natural variations are important, and
also, the human influence is significant,
but it involves a diverse range of firstorder climate forcings, including, but
not limited to the human input of
greenhouse gases including CO2
These other forcings, such as
land-use change and from
atmospheric pollution aerosols,
may have a greater effect on
our climate than the effects
that have been claimed for CO2
The acceptance of CO2 as a
pollutant by the EPA , yet it is a
climate forcing not a traditional
atmospheric pollutant, opens up a
wide range of other climate
forcings which the EPA could
similarly regulate (e.g., land use,
water vapor).
What Does The Other Climate
Data Tell Us?
1) There is no regional predictive
skill by the multi-decadal global
models decades into the future;
2) Even the global average climate
metrics, such as global warming,
are not being accurately
predicted by these models
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A.
Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions,
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.
"Geographically distributed predictions of future
climate, obtained through climate models, are widely
used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically
without assessing their reliability. Here we compare
the output of various models to temperature and
precipitation observations from eight stations with
long (over 100 years) records from around the globe.
The results show that models perform poorly, even at
a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections
cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that
models can perform better at larger spatial scales is
unsupported."
The Real World Data Examples
Figure
Figure 2.
2. Vertical
Vertical relative
relative weighting
weighting
functions
functions for
for each
each of
of the
the channels
channels
discussed
discussed on
on this
this website.
website. The
The vertical
vertical
weighting
weighting function
function describes
describes the
the
relative
relative contribution
contribution that
that microwave
microwave
radiation
radiation emitted
emitted by
by aa layer
layer in
in the
the
atmosphere
atmosphere makes
makes to
to the
the total
total intensity
intensity
measured
measured above
above the
the atmosphere
atmosphere by
by the
the
satellite.
satellite.
The
The weighting
weighting functions
functions are
are available
available
on
on the
the FTP
FTP site
site at
at
ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions
ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions
From:
From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
TLT
TLT
From:
From:
http://www.ssmi.co
http://www.ssmi.co
m/msu/msu_data_
m/msu/msu_data_
description.html
description.html
TMT
TMT
TTS
TTS
TLS
TLS
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.11.30.2009.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.11.30.2009.gif
Figure
Figure 1:
1: Four-year
Four-year rate
rate of
of the
the global
global upper
upper 700
700 m
m of
of ocean
ocean heat
heat changes
changes in
in
Joules
Joules at
at monthly
monthly time
time intervals.
intervals. One
One standard
standard error
error value
value is
is also
also shown.
shown. (Figure
(Figure
courtesy
courtesy of
of Josh
Josh Willis
Willis of
of NASA’s
NASA’s Jet
Jet Propulsion
Propulsion Laboratory).
Laboratory).
What do the locations
where the surface
temperature data is
collected look like?
Fort
Fort Morgan
Morgan site
site showing
showing images
images of
of the
the cardinal
cardinal directions
directions from
from the
the sensor
sensor
(from
(from Hanamean
Hanamean et
et al.
al. 2003)
2003)
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/
Santa
Santa Ana,
Ana, Orange
Orange County
County CA
CA site
site situated
situated on
on the
the rooftop
rooftop of
of the
the local
local fire
fire
department.
department. See
See related
related article
article and
and photos
photos at:
at:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ and
and
http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-thehttp://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-theheat-in-oc/
heat-in-oc/
Photo
Photo taken
taken at
at Roseburg,
Roseburg, OR
OR (MMTS
(MMTS shelter
shelter on
on roof,
roof, near
near a/c
a/c exhaust)
exhaust)
http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg
http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg
Buffalo
Buffalo Bill
Bill Dam,
Dam, Cody
Cody WY
WY shelter
shelter on
on top
top of
of aa stone
stone wall
wall at
at the
the edge
edge of
of the
the river.
river.
It
It is
is surrounded
surrounded by
by stone
stone building
building heat
heat sinks
sinks except
except on
on the
the river
river side.
side. On
On the
the
river
river it
it is
is exposed
exposed to
to waters
waters of
of varying
varying temperatures,
temperatures, cold
cold in
in spring
spring and
and winter,
winter,
warm
warm in
in summer
summer and
and fall
fall as
as the
the river
river flows
flows vary
vary with
with the
the season.
season. The
The level
level of
of
spray
spray also
also varies,
varies, depending
depending on
on river
river flow.
flow.
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measurehttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measuretemperature-part-67/
temperature-part-67/
Lampasas,
Lampasas, TX,
TX, February
February 10,
10, 2008
2008
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296
Conclusion:
There is a significant amount of real
world data that conflicts with the
findings in the 2007 IPCC report
Why Has Hypothesis #3 Not
Received Attention?
A main reason for the failure to
accurately communicate climate
science to the policymakers is a
result of the real conflict of
interest among the leadership of
the climate community.
The IPCC and CCSP assessments,
as well as the science statements
completed by the AGU, AMS,
and NRC, are completed by a small
subset of climate scientists who are
led by the same individuals. They
are evaluating the robustness of
their own research.
One Example of a
Conflict of Interest Tom Karl,
Director of the
National Climatic Data
Center
Conflict of Interest in the CCSP Report
“Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps
for Understanding and Reconciling Differences ”
Complete report - Temperature
Trends in the Lower Atmosphere:
Steps for Understanding and
Reconciling Differences. Thomas
R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol,
Christopher D. Miller, and William
L. Murray, editors, 2006. A Report
by the Climate Change Science
Program and the Subcommittee
on Global Change Research,
Washington, DC.
Science Assessments Should
Not Be Completed By
Scientists Who Are
Assessing Their Own
Research
How Do We Move
Forward?
POLICYMAKERS SHOULD LOOK FOR WINWIN POLICIES IN ORDER TO IMPROVE
THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN
The costs and benefits of the regulation of the
emissions of CO22 into the atmosphere need to
be evaluated together with all other possible
environmental regulations. The goal should be
to seek politically and technologically practical
ways to reduce the vulnerability of the
environment and society to the entire spectrum
of human-caused and natural risks.
From: Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: Global climate models - Many contributing
influences. Citizen's Guide to Colorado Climate Change, Colorado
Climate Foundation for Water Education, pp. 28-29.
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf
To Move Forward We Need A
Bottom-Up Resource Based
Focus, Rather Than Relying On
Downscaling From Global
Climate Models
RECOMMENDATIONS
¾ National and International climate assessments
should be written by climate scientists without
significant conflicts of interest.
¾ The focus on reducing threats from climate, and
other environmental, variability and change should
be resource-based, and with a local and regional
vulnerability perspective to start with (i.e., a
"bottom-up assessment). Policy actions which
optimize the entire spectrum of benefits for society
and the environment should be the goal.
Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/
Background Photograph Courtesy
of Mike Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm
PowerPoint Presentation
Prepared by
Dallas Jean Staley
Research Assistant and
Webmaster
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado 80309
[email protected]