Download CONSIDERING THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE

CONSIDERING THE
HUMAN INFLUENCE ON
CLIMATE
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
University of Colorado, CIRES/ATOC, Boulder,
George C. Marshall Institute, Washington, DC
May 14, 2009
“Climate change is a clear and present
danger to our world that demands
immediate attention. Facts on the
ground are outstripping worse-case
scenario models that were developed
only a few years ago.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/
The atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide continues to rise in the annual
average and this increase is almost all due
to the human-caused emissions of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere. This increase
can be clearly seen, for example, in the
data from the Earth System Research
Laboratory
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
What Does The Other Climate
Data Tell Us?
Figure
Figure 2.
2. Vertical
Vertical relative
relative
weighting
weighting functions
functions for
for each
each of
of
the
the channels
channels discussed
discussed on
on this
this
website.
website. The
The vertical
vertical weighting
weighting
function
function describes
describes the
the relative
relative
contribution
contribution that
that microwave
microwave
radiation
radiation emitted
emitted by
by aa layer
layer in
in the
the
atmosphere
atmosphere makes
makes to
to the
the total
total
intensity
intensity measured
measured above
above the
the
atmosphere
atmosphere by
by the
the satellite.
satellite.
The
The weighting
weighting functions
functions are
are
available
available on
on the
the FTP
FTP site
site at
at
ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_fun
ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_fun
ctions
ctions
From:
From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
TLT
TLT
TMT
TMT
TTS
TTS
TLS
TLS
From:
From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.11.2009.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.11.2009.gif
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
Figure
Figure 1:
1: Four-year
Four-year rate
rate of
of the
the global
global upper
upper 700
700 m
m of
of ocean
ocean heat
heat changes
changes in
in
Joules
Joules at
at monthly
monthly time
time intervals.
intervals. One
One standard
standard error
error value
value is
is also
also shown.
shown. (Figure
(Figure
courtesy
courtesy of
of Josh
Josh Willis
Willis of
of NASA’s
NASA’s Jet
Jet Propulsion
Propulsion Laboratory).
Laboratory).
http://www.heartland.org/books/PDFs/SurfaceStations.pdf
Fort
Fort Morgan
Morgan site
site showing
showing images
images of
of the
the cardinal
cardinal directions
directions from
from the
the sensor
sensor
(from
(from Hanamean
Hanamean et
et al.
al. 2003)
2003)
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/
Santa
Santa Ana,
Ana, Orange
Orange County
County CA
CA site
site situated
situated on
on the
the rooftop
rooftop of
of the
the local
local fire
fire
department.
department. See
See related
related article
article and
and photos
photos at:
at:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ and
and
http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-thehttp://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-theheat-in-oc/
heat-in-oc/
Photo
Photo taken
taken at
at Roseburg,
Roseburg, OR
OR (MMTS
(MMTS shelter
shelter on
on roof,
roof, near
near a/c
a/c exhaust)
exhaust)
http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg
http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg
Buffalo
Buffalo Bill
Bill Dam,
Dam, Cody
Cody WY
WY shelter
shelter on
on top
top of
of aa stone
stone wall
wall at
at the
the edge
edge of
of the
the river.
river.
It
It is
is surrounded
surrounded by
by stone
stone building
building heat
heat sinks
sinks except
except on
on the
the river
river side.
side. On
On the
the
river
river it
it is
is exposed
exposed to
to waters
waters of
of varying
varying temperatures,
temperatures, cold
cold in
in spring
spring and
and winter,
winter,
warm
warm in
in summer
summer and
and fall
fall as
as the
the river
river flows
flows vary
vary with
with the
the season.
season. The
The level
level of
of
spray
spray also
also varies,
varies, depending
depending on
on river
river flow.
flow.
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measurehttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measuretemperature-part-67/
temperature-part-67/
Lampasas,
Lampasas, TX,
TX, February
February 10,
10, 2008
2008
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296
http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296
Climate
Climate Reference
Reference Network
Network Rating
Rating Guide:
Guide:
Class
Class 11 Flat
Flat and
and horizontal
horizontal ground
ground surrounded
surrounded by
by aa clear
clear surface
surface with
with aa slope
slope below
below 1/3
1/3 (<19deg).
(<19deg).
Grass/low
Grass/low vegetation
vegetation ground
ground cover
cover <10
<10 centimeters
centimeters high.
high. Sensors
Sensors located
located at
at least
least 100
100 meters
meters from
from
artificial
heating
or
reflecting
surfaces,
such
as
buildings,
concrete
surfaces,
and
parking
lots.
Far
artificial heating or reflecting surfaces, such as buildings, concrete surfaces, and parking lots. Far
from
from large
large bodies
bodies of
of water,
water, except
except if
if it
it is
is representative
representative of
of the
the area,
area, and
and then
then located
located at
at least
least 100
100
meters
away.
No
shading
when
the
sun
elevation
>3
degrees.
meters away. No shading when the sun elevation >3 degrees.
Class
Class 22 Same
Same as
as Class
Class 11 with
with the
the following
following differences.
differences. Surrounding
Surrounding Vegetation
Vegetation <25
<25 centimeters.
centimeters. No
No
artificial
artificial heating
heating sources
sources within
within 30m.
30m. No
No shading
shading for
for aa sun
sun elevation
elevation >5deg.
>5deg.
Class
3
(error
1C)
Same
as
Class
2,
except
no
artificial
heating
sources
Class 3 (error 1C) - Same as Class 2, except no artificial heating sources within
within 10
10 meters.
meters.
Class
Class 44 (error
(error >=
>= 2C)
2C) -- Artificial
Artificial heating
heating sources
sources <10
<10 meters.
meters.
Class
Class 55 (error
(error >=
>= 5C)
5C) -- Temperature
Temperature sensor
sensor located
located next
next to/above
to/above an
an artificial
artificial heating
heating source,
source, such
such aa
building,
building, roof
roof top,
top, parking
parking lot,
lot, or
or concrete
concrete surface."
surface."
Surveyed CRN Site Quality Rating
CRN=4
57%
CRN=1
CRN=5
12%
CRN=2
CRN=3
CRN=1
3%
CRN=2
9%
724 stations rated
as of 12/21/2008
CRN=3
19%
CRN=4
CRN=5
Other Problems With The Surface
Temperature Trends
A conservative estimate of the warm bias
resulting from measuring the temperature near
the ground is around 0.21°C per decade (with the
nighttime minimum temperature contributing a
large part of this bias). Since land covers about
29% of the Earth's surface, the warm bias due to
this influence explains about 30% of the IPCC
estimate of global warming. In other words,
consideration of the bias in temperature would reduce
the IPCC trend to about 0.14°C per decade; still a
warming, but not as large as indicated by the IPCC.
From
From
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf
If This Is An Issue, The
Difference Between The
Surface and Tropospheric
Temperatures Should
Increase With Time
NCDC
NCDC minus
minus UAH
UAH lower
lower troposphere
troposphere (blue
(blue line)
line) and
and NCDC
NCDC minus
minus RSS
RSS lower
lower
troposphere
troposphere (green
(green line)
line) annual
annual land
land temperature
temperature differences
differences over
over the
the period
period
from
from 1979-2008.
1979-2008. The
The expected
expected anomaly
anomaly difference
difference given
given the
the model
model
amplification
amplification lapse
lapse rate
rate factor
factor of
of 1.2
1.2 is
is also
also provided.
provided. All
All differences
differences are
are
normalized
normalized so
so that
that the
the difference
difference in
in 1979
1979 is
is zero.
zero. From
From Klotzbach
Klotzbach et
et al.
al.
(2009).
(2009). http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-345.pdf
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-345.pdf
Is Climate Change
Dominated By The Human
Emissions of Well-Mixed
Greenhouse Gases,
Particularly CO2?
Extensive peer-reviewed research has
shown that the focus on just carbon
dioxide as the dominate human climate
forcing is too narrow.
We have found that natural variations
are still quite important, and moreover,
the human influence is significant, but
it involves a diverse range of first-order
climate forcings, including, but not
limited to the human input of CO2 .
National Research Council, 2005: Radiative
Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the
Concept and Addressing Uncertainties,
Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on
Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224
pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From:
From: National
National Research
Research Council,
Council, 2005:
2005: Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing of
of Climate
Climate
Change:
Change: Expanding
Expanding the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee
on
on Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing Effects
Effects on
on Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate Research
Research Committee,
Committee, 224
224
pp.
pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
The acceptance of CO2 as a
pollutant by the EPA , yet it is a
climate forcing not a traditional
atmospheric pollutant, opens up a
wide range of other climate
forcings which the EPA could
similarly regulate (e.g., land use,
water vapor).
REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE
EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA
IN THE SUMMER
U.S.
U.S. Geological
Geological Survey
Survey land-cover
land-cover classes
classes for
for pre-1900’s
pre-1900’s natural
natural conditions
conditions (left)
(left)
and
and 1993
1993 land-use
land-use patterns
patterns (right).
(right). From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T.
Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change
on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon.
Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Rhttp://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R272.pdf
272.pdf
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
of
anthropogenic
land-cover
change
on
the
Florida
peninsula
sea
breezes
impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes
and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28
28 52.
52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Associated
Associated convective
convective rainfall
rainfall (mm)
(mm) from
from the
the model
model simulations
simulations of
of July-August
July-August
1973
1973 with
with pre-1900s
pre-1900s land
land cover
cover (top),
(top), 1993
1993 land
land use
use (middle),
(middle), and
and the
the
difference
difference field
field for
for the
the two
two (bottom;
(bottom; 1993
1993 minus
minus pre-1900s
pre-1900s case).
case). From
From
Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea
breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Same
Same as
as previous
previous figure
figure except
except for
for July
July and
and August,
August, 1989.
1989. From
From Marshall,
Marshall,
C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of
anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and
warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Max and Min
Temp Trends
Two-month
Two-month average
average of
of the
the daily
daily maximum
maximum shelter-level
shelter-level temperature
temperature (°C)
(°C) from
from the
the
model
model simulations
simulations of
of Jul-Aug
Jul-Aug 1989
1989 with
with (top)
(top) natural
natural land
land cover,
cover, (middle)
(middle) current
current
land
land cover.
cover. From
From Marshall
Marshall et
et al.
al. 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover
change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather.
Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
These other forcings, such as
land-use change and from
atmospheric pollution aerosols,
may have a greater effect on
our climate than the effects
that have been claimed for CO2
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Shortwave
Shortwave
aerosol
aerosol direct
direct radiative
radiative
forcing
forcing (ADRF)
(ADRF) for
for toptopof
of atmosphere
atmosphere (TOA),
(TOA),
surface,
surface, and
and
atmosphere.
atmosphere. From:
From:
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
Measurement-based
estimation
estimation of
of the
the
spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of
aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative
forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res.
Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL02
doi:10.1029/2006GL02
5974.
5974.
http://climatesci.color
http://climatesci.color
ado.edu/publications/
ado.edu/publications/
pdf/R-312.pdf
pdf/R-312.pdf
NGoRF
NGoRF
surface
surface
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(meri)
ADRF(meri)
NGoRF
NGoRF
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
Figure
Figure 5.
5. Comparison
Comparison of
of
the
the meridional
meridional and
and the
the
zonal
zonal component
component of
of NGoRF
NGoRF
between
between infrared
infrared GRF,
GRF,
shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF, and
and
10
15
20
shortwave AIRF
AIRF for
for
10
15
20 shortwave
distance
atmosphere
distance (degree)
(degree)
atmosphere and
and surface.
surface.
From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
AIRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
AIRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
Measurement-based
Measurement-based
AIRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
AIRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial
atmosphere
atmosphere
gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol
radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys.
Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL0259
doi:10.1029/2006GL0259
74.
74.
http://climatesci.colorado.
http://climatesci.colorado.
edu/publications/pdf/Redu/publications/pdf/R10
15
20
10
15
20 312.pdf
312.pdf
In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found
from observations of the spatial distribution
of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower
latitudes, that the aerosol effect on
atmospheric circulations, as a result of their
alteration in the heating of regions of the
atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to
the heating effect of the human addition of
well-mixed greenhouse gases.
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the
spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
The IPCC and CCSP assessments, as
well as the science statements
completed by the AGU, AMS,
and NRC, are completed by a small
subset of climate scientists who are
often the same individuals. This
oligarchy has prevented science of the
climate system to be properly
communicated to policymakers.
Conflict of Interest in the CCSP Report Temperature
Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for
Understanding and Reconciling Differences ”
Complete report Temperature
Trends in the Lower Atmosphere:
Steps for Understanding and
Reconciling Differences. Thomas
R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol,
Christopher D. Miller, and William
L. Murray, editors, 2006. A Report
by the Climate Change Science
Program and the Subcommittee
on Global Change Research,
Washington, DC.
Preface
Exec
Summ
Chap 1
Chap 2
Santer, B.D.,
B.D., T.M.L. Wigley,
Wigley, C. Mears,
Mears, F.J.
Wentz,
Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel,
Seidel, K.E. Taylor,
P.W. Thorne,
Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler,
J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C.
Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen,
G.S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl,
Karl, J.R.
Lanzante,
Lanzante, G.A. Meehl,
Meehl, V. Ramaswamy,
Ramaswamy, G.
Russel, and G.A. Schmidt, 2005: Amplification
of surface temperature trends and variability
in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309, 155115511556. DOI:10.1126/science.1114867.
Chap 3
Chap 4
Sherwood, S.C.,
S.C., J.R. Lanzante,
Lanzante,
and C.L. Meyer, 2005:
Radiosonde daytime biases and
latelate-20th century warming.
Science, 155615561559.doi:10.1126/science.11156
40.
Chap 5
Chap 6
Append
A
Mears, C.A.,
C.A., and F.J. Wentz,
Wentz,
2005: The effect of diurnal
correction on satellitesatellite-derived lower
tropospheric temperature.
Science, 15481548-1551.
doi:10.1126/science.1114772.
CCSP
CCSP REPORT
REPORT
Preface
Preface .. Report
Report Motivation
Motivation and
and Guidance
Guidance for
for Using
Using this
this Synthesis/Assessment
Synthesis/Assessment Report
Report by
by Karl,
Karl, T.R.,
T.R., C.
C. D.
D. Miller,
Miller, and
and W.
W. L.
L. Murray,
Murray,
editor
editor
Executive
Executive Summary
Summary by
by Wigley,
Wigley, T.M.L.,
T.M.L., V.
V. Ramaswamy,
Ramaswamy, J.R.
J.R. Christy,
Christy, J.R.
J.R. Lanzante,
Lanzante, C.A.
C.A. Mears,
Mears, B.D.
B.D. Santer,
Santer, C.K.
C.K. Folland
Folland
Chapter
Chapter 11 .. Why
Why do
do temperatures
temperatures vary
vary vertically
vertically (from
(from the
the surface
surface to
to the
the stratosphere)
stratosphere) and
and what
what do
do we
we understand
understand about
about why
why
they
they might
might vary
vary and
and change
change over
over time?
time? by
by Ramaswamy,
Ramaswamy, V.,
V., J.W.
J.W. Hurrell,
Hurrell, G.A.
G.A. Meehl
Meehl
Chapter
Chapter 22.. What
What kinds
kinds of
of atmospheric
atmospheric temperature
temperature variations
variations can
can the
the current
current observing
observing systems
systems measure
measure and
and what
what are
are their
their
strengths
D.J. Seidel,
Seidel, S.C.
S.C. Sherwood
Sherwood
strengths and
and limitations,
limitations, both
both spatially
spatially and
and temporally?
temporally? by
by Christy,
Christy, J.R.,
J.R., D.J.
Chapter
Chapter 33.. What
What do
do observations
observations indicate
indicate about
about the
the changes
changes of
of temperature
temperature in
in the
the atmosphere
atmosphere and
and at
at the
the surface
surface since
since the
the
advent
advent of
of measuring
measuring temperatures
temperatures vertically?
vertically? by
by Lanzante,
Lanzante, J.R.,
J.R., T.C.
T.C. Peterson,
Peterson, F.J.
F.J. Wentz,
Wentz, K.Y.
K.Y. Vinnikov
Vinnikov
Chapter
Chapter 4.
4. What
What is
is our
our understanding
understanding of
of the
the contribution
contribution made
made by
by observational
observational or
or methodological
methodological uncertainties
uncertainties to
to the
the previously
previously
reported
reported vertical
vertical differences
differences in
in temperature
temperature trends?
trends? by
by Mears,
Mears, C.A.,
C.A., C.E.
C.E. Forest,
Forest, R.W.
R.W. Spencer,
Spencer, R.S.
R.S. Vose,
Vose, R.W.
R.W. Reynolds
Reynolds
Chapter
Chapter 5.
5. How
How well
well can
can the
the observed
observed vertical
vertical temperature
temperature changes
changes be
be reconciled
reconciled with
with our
our understanding
understanding of
of the
the causes
causes of
of these
these
temperature
temperature changes?
changes? by
by Santer,
Santer, B.D.,
B.D., J.E.
J.E. Penner,
Penner, P.W.
P.W. Thorne
Thorne
Chapter
Chapter 6.
6. What
What measures
measures can
can be
be taken
taken to
to improve
improve our
our understanding
understanding of
of observed
observed changes?
changes? by
by Folland,
Folland, C.K.,
C.K., D.
D. Parker,
Parker, R.W.
R.W.
Reynolds,
Reynolds, S.C.
S.C. Sherwood,
Sherwood, P.W.
P.W. Thorne
Thorne
Appendix
Appendix AA.. Statistical
Statistical Issues
Issues Regarding
Regarding Trends.
Trends. by
by Wigley,
Wigley, T.M.L.
T.M.L.
Science Assessments Should
Not Be Completed By
Scientists Who Are
Assessing Their Own
Research
Policymakers should look for win-win
policies in order to improve the
environment that we live in.
The costs and benefits of the regulation of
the emissions of CO22 into the atmosphere
need to be evaluated together with all
other possible environmental regulations.
The goal should be to seek politically and
technologically practical ways to reduce the
vulnerability of the environment and
society to the entire spectrum of humancaused and natural risks.
An Example Of The Risks We Face
From: Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: Global climate models - Many contributing
influences. Citizen's Guide to Colorado Climate Change, Colorado Climate
Foundation for Water Education, pp. 28-29.
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf
To Move Forward We Need A
Bottom-Up Resource Based Focus,
Rather Than Relying On
Downscaling From Global Climate
Models
Recommendations
1.
1. The
The climate
climate science
science community
community should
should be
be polled
polled with
with respect
respect to
to
which
which of
of the
the following
following three
three hypotheses
hypotheses have
have been
been rejected:
rejected:
i.
i. The
The human
human influence
influence is
is minimal
minimal and
and natural
natural variations
variations
dominate
dominate climate
climate variations
variations on
on all
all time
time scales;
scales;
ii.
ii. While
While natural
natural variations
variations are
are important,
important, the
the human
human influence
influence is
is
significant
significant and
and involves
involves aa diverse
diverse range
range of
of first-order
first-order climate
climate
forcings,
including,
but
not
limited
to
the
human
input
forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of
of CO2;
CO2;
iii.
iii. The
The human
human influence
influence is
is dominated
dominated by
by the
the emissions
emissions into
into the
the
atmosphere
of
greenhouse
gases,
particularly
carbon
dioxide.
atmosphere of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide.
2.
2. National
National and
and International
International climate
climate assessments
assessments should
should be
be written
written
by
by climate
climate scientists
scientists without
without significant
significant conflicts
conflicts of
of interest.
interest.
3.
3. The
The focus
focus on
on reducing
reducing threats
threats from
from climate,
climate, and
and other
other
environmental,
environmental, variability
variability and
and change
change should
should be
be resource-based,
resource-based,
and
and with
with aa local
local and
and regional
regional vulnerability
vulnerability perspective
perspective to
to start
start
with
(i.e.
a
"bottom-up
assessment).
Policy
actions
which
with (i.e. a "bottom-up assessment). Policy actions which optimize
optimize
the
the entire
entire spectrum
spectrum of
of benefits
benefits for
for society
society and
and the
the environment
environment
should
should be
be the
the goal.
goal.
FINALLY
There is a clear conflict of interest in the
preparation of the IPCC and CCSP reports.
The lead authors are individuals who are
assessing their own research. There need to
be new Committees convened which can
provide a more objective assessment of
climate, including the human role within it.
Unless this is done, we are doomed to a
continued repetition of the same information,
which is misleading the public and
policymakers with respect to what policy
actions should be taken with respect
to climate.
Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/
Background Photograph Courtesy
of Mike Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm
PowerPoint Presentation
Prepared by
Dallas Jean Staley
Research Assistant and
Webmaster
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado 80309
[email protected]