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CONSIDERING THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE Roger A. Pielke Sr. University of Colorado, CIRES/ATOC, Boulder, George C. Marshall Institute, Washington, DC May 14, 2009 “Climate change is a clear and present danger to our world that demands immediate attention. Facts on the ground are outstripping worse-case scenario models that were developed only a few years ago.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/ http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/ The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide continues to rise in the annual average and this increase is almost all due to the human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This increase can be clearly seen, for example, in the data from the Earth System Research Laboratory http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ What Does The Other Climate Data Tell Us? Figure Figure 2. 2. Vertical Vertical relative relative weighting weighting functions functions for for each each of of the the channels channels discussed discussed on on this this website. website. The The vertical vertical weighting weighting function function describes describes the the relative relative contribution contribution that that microwave microwave radiation radiation emitted emitted by by aa layer layer in in the the atmosphere atmosphere makes makes to to the the total total intensity intensity measured measured above above the the atmosphere atmosphere by by the the satellite. satellite. The The weighting weighting functions functions are are available available on on the the FTP FTP site site at at ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_fun ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_fun ctions ctions From: From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html TLT TLT TMT TMT TTS TTS TLS TLS From: From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.11.2009.gif http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.11.2009.gif http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ Figure Figure 1: 1: Four-year Four-year rate rate of of the the global global upper upper 700 700 m m of of ocean ocean heat heat changes changes in in Joules Joules at at monthly monthly time time intervals. intervals. One One standard standard error error value value is is also also shown. shown. (Figure (Figure courtesy courtesy of of Josh Josh Willis Willis of of NASA’s NASA’s Jet Jet Propulsion Propulsion Laboratory). Laboratory). http://www.heartland.org/books/PDFs/SurfaceStations.pdf Fort Fort Morgan Morgan site site showing showing images images of of the the cardinal cardinal directions directions from from the the sensor sensor (from (from Hanamean Hanamean et et al. al. 2003) 2003) http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/ http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/ Santa Santa Ana, Ana, Orange Orange County County CA CA site site situated situated on on the the rooftop rooftop of of the the local local fire fire department. department. See See related related article article and and photos photos at: at: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ and and http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-thehttp://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-theheat-in-oc/ heat-in-oc/ Photo Photo taken taken at at Roseburg, Roseburg, OR OR (MMTS (MMTS shelter shelter on on roof, roof, near near a/c a/c exhaust) exhaust) http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg Buffalo Buffalo Bill Bill Dam, Dam, Cody Cody WY WY shelter shelter on on top top of of aa stone stone wall wall at at the the edge edge of of the the river. river. It It is is surrounded surrounded by by stone stone building building heat heat sinks sinks except except on on the the river river side. side. On On the the river river it it is is exposed exposed to to waters waters of of varying varying temperatures, temperatures, cold cold in in spring spring and and winter, winter, warm warm in in summer summer and and fall fall as as the the river river flows flows vary vary with with the the season. season. The The level level of of spray spray also also varies, varies, depending depending on on river river flow. flow. http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measurehttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measuretemperature-part-67/ temperature-part-67/ Lampasas, Lampasas, TX, TX, February February 10, 10, 2008 2008 http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296 http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296 Climate Climate Reference Reference Network Network Rating Rating Guide: Guide: Class Class 11 Flat Flat and and horizontal horizontal ground ground surrounded surrounded by by aa clear clear surface surface with with aa slope slope below below 1/3 1/3 (<19deg). (<19deg). Grass/low Grass/low vegetation vegetation ground ground cover cover <10 <10 centimeters centimeters high. high. Sensors Sensors located located at at least least 100 100 meters meters from from artificial heating or reflecting surfaces, such as buildings, concrete surfaces, and parking lots. Far artificial heating or reflecting surfaces, such as buildings, concrete surfaces, and parking lots. Far from from large large bodies bodies of of water, water, except except if if it it is is representative representative of of the the area, area, and and then then located located at at least least 100 100 meters away. No shading when the sun elevation >3 degrees. meters away. No shading when the sun elevation >3 degrees. Class Class 22 Same Same as as Class Class 11 with with the the following following differences. differences. Surrounding Surrounding Vegetation Vegetation <25 <25 centimeters. centimeters. No No artificial artificial heating heating sources sources within within 30m. 30m. No No shading shading for for aa sun sun elevation elevation >5deg. >5deg. Class 3 (error 1C) Same as Class 2, except no artificial heating sources Class 3 (error 1C) - Same as Class 2, except no artificial heating sources within within 10 10 meters. meters. Class Class 44 (error (error >= >= 2C) 2C) -- Artificial Artificial heating heating sources sources <10 <10 meters. meters. Class Class 55 (error (error >= >= 5C) 5C) -- Temperature Temperature sensor sensor located located next next to/above to/above an an artificial artificial heating heating source, source, such such aa building, building, roof roof top, top, parking parking lot, lot, or or concrete concrete surface." surface." Surveyed CRN Site Quality Rating CRN=4 57% CRN=1 CRN=5 12% CRN=2 CRN=3 CRN=1 3% CRN=2 9% 724 stations rated as of 12/21/2008 CRN=3 19% CRN=4 CRN=5 Other Problems With The Surface Temperature Trends A conservative estimate of the warm bias resulting from measuring the temperature near the ground is around 0.21°C per decade (with the nighttime minimum temperature contributing a large part of this bias). Since land covers about 29% of the Earth's surface, the warm bias due to this influence explains about 30% of the IPCC estimate of global warming. In other words, consideration of the bias in temperature would reduce the IPCC trend to about 0.14°C per decade; still a warming, but not as large as indicated by the IPCC. From From http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf If This Is An Issue, The Difference Between The Surface and Tropospheric Temperatures Should Increase With Time NCDC NCDC minus minus UAH UAH lower lower troposphere troposphere (blue (blue line) line) and and NCDC NCDC minus minus RSS RSS lower lower troposphere troposphere (green (green line) line) annual annual land land temperature temperature differences differences over over the the period period from from 1979-2008. 1979-2008. The The expected expected anomaly anomaly difference difference given given the the model model amplification amplification lapse lapse rate rate factor factor of of 1.2 1.2 is is also also provided. provided. All All differences differences are are normalized normalized so so that that the the difference difference in in 1979 1979 is is zero. zero. From From Klotzbach Klotzbach et et al. al. (2009). (2009). http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-345.pdf http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-345.pdf Is Climate Change Dominated By The Human Emissions of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases, Particularly CO2? Extensive peer-reviewed research has shown that the focus on just carbon dioxide as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow. We have found that natural variations are still quite important, and moreover, the human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2 . National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html From: From: National National Research Research Council, Council, 2005: 2005: Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Expanding Expanding the the Concept Concept and and Addressing Addressing Uncertainties, Uncertainties, Committee Committee on on Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing Effects Effects on on Climate, Climate, Climate Climate Research Research Committee, Committee, 224 224 pp. pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html The acceptance of CO2 as a pollutant by the EPA , yet it is a climate forcing not a traditional atmospheric pollutant, opens up a wide range of other climate forcings which the EPA could similarly regulate (e.g., land use, water vapor). REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER U.S. U.S. Geological Geological Survey Survey land-cover land-cover classes classes for for pre-1900’s pre-1900’s natural natural conditions conditions (left) (left) and and 1993 1993 land-use land-use patterns patterns (right). (right). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Rhttp://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R272.pdf 272.pdf From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28 28 52. 52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Associated Associated convective convective rainfall rainfall (mm) (mm) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of July-August July-August 1973 1973 with with pre-1900s pre-1900s land land cover cover (top), (top), 1993 1993 land land use use (middle), (middle), and and the the difference difference field field for for the the two two (bottom; (bottom; 1993 1993 minus minus pre-1900s pre-1900s case). case). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Same Same as as previous previous figure figure except except for for July July and and August, August, 1989. 1989. From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Max and Min Temp Trends Two-month Two-month average average of of the the daily daily maximum maximum shelter-level shelter-level temperature temperature (°C) (°C) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of Jul-Aug Jul-Aug 1989 1989 with with (top) (top) natural natural land land cover, cover, (middle) (middle) current current land land cover. cover. From From Marshall Marshall et et al. al. 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf These other forcings, such as land-use change and from atmospheric pollution aerosols, may have a greater effect on our climate than the effects that have been claimed for CO2 Figure Figure 1. 1. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol direct direct radiative radiative forcing forcing (ADRF) (ADRF) for for toptopof of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), (TOA), surface, surface, and and atmosphere. atmosphere. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL02 doi:10.1029/2006GL02 5974. 5974. http://climatesci.color http://climatesci.color ado.edu/publications/ ado.edu/publications/ pdf/R-312.pdf pdf/R-312.pdf NGoRF NGoRF surface surface 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 00 00 55 ADRF(zone) ADRF(zone) ADRF(meri) ADRF(meri) NGoRF NGoRF 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 00 00 55 Figure Figure 5. 5. Comparison Comparison of of the the meridional meridional and and the the zonal zonal component component of of NGoRF NGoRF between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, and and 10 15 20 shortwave AIRF AIRF for for 10 15 20 shortwave distance atmosphere distance (degree) (degree) atmosphere and and surface. surface. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: AIRF(zone) GRF(zone) AIRF(zone) GRF(zone) Measurement-based Measurement-based AIRF(meri) GRF(meri) AIRF(meri) GRF(meri) estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial atmosphere atmosphere gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL0259 doi:10.1029/2006GL0259 74. 74. http://climatesci.colorado. http://climatesci.colorado. edu/publications/pdf/Redu/publications/pdf/R10 15 20 10 15 20 312.pdf 312.pdf In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found from observations of the spatial distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower latitudes, that the aerosol effect on atmospheric circulations, as a result of their alteration in the heating of regions of the atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to the heating effect of the human addition of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf The IPCC and CCSP assessments, as well as the science statements completed by the AGU, AMS, and NRC, are completed by a small subset of climate scientists who are often the same individuals. This oligarchy has prevented science of the climate system to be properly communicated to policymakers. Conflict of Interest in the CCSP Report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences ” Complete report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, 2006. A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC. Preface Exec Summ Chap 1 Chap 2 Santer, B.D., B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, Wigley, C. Mears, Mears, F.J. Wentz, Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, G.S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl, Karl, J.R. Lanzante, Lanzante, G.A. Meehl, Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, G. Russel, and G.A. Schmidt, 2005: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309, 155115511556. DOI:10.1126/science.1114867. Chap 3 Chap 4 Sherwood, S.C., S.C., J.R. Lanzante, Lanzante, and C.L. Meyer, 2005: Radiosonde daytime biases and latelate-20th century warming. Science, 155615561559.doi:10.1126/science.11156 40. Chap 5 Chap 6 Append A Mears, C.A., C.A., and F.J. Wentz, Wentz, 2005: The effect of diurnal correction on satellitesatellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature. Science, 15481548-1551. doi:10.1126/science.1114772. CCSP CCSP REPORT REPORT Preface Preface .. Report Report Motivation Motivation and and Guidance Guidance for for Using Using this this Synthesis/Assessment Synthesis/Assessment Report Report by by Karl, Karl, T.R., T.R., C. C. D. D. Miller, Miller, and and W. W. L. L. Murray, Murray, editor editor Executive Executive Summary Summary by by Wigley, Wigley, T.M.L., T.M.L., V. V. Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, J.R. J.R. Christy, Christy, J.R. J.R. Lanzante, Lanzante, C.A. C.A. Mears, Mears, B.D. B.D. Santer, Santer, C.K. C.K. Folland Folland Chapter Chapter 11 .. Why Why do do temperatures temperatures vary vary vertically vertically (from (from the the surface surface to to the the stratosphere) stratosphere) and and what what do do we we understand understand about about why why they they might might vary vary and and change change over over time? time? by by Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, V., V., J.W. J.W. Hurrell, Hurrell, G.A. G.A. Meehl Meehl Chapter Chapter 22.. What What kinds kinds of of atmospheric atmospheric temperature temperature variations variations can can the the current current observing observing systems systems measure measure and and what what are are their their strengths D.J. Seidel, Seidel, S.C. S.C. Sherwood Sherwood strengths and and limitations, limitations, both both spatially spatially and and temporally? temporally? by by Christy, Christy, J.R., J.R., D.J. Chapter Chapter 33.. What What do do observations observations indicate indicate about about the the changes changes of of temperature temperature in in the the atmosphere atmosphere and and at at the the surface surface since since the the advent advent of of measuring measuring temperatures temperatures vertically? vertically? by by Lanzante, Lanzante, J.R., J.R., T.C. T.C. Peterson, Peterson, F.J. F.J. Wentz, Wentz, K.Y. K.Y. Vinnikov Vinnikov Chapter Chapter 4. 4. What What is is our our understanding understanding of of the the contribution contribution made made by by observational observational or or methodological methodological uncertainties uncertainties to to the the previously previously reported reported vertical vertical differences differences in in temperature temperature trends? trends? by by Mears, Mears, C.A., C.A., C.E. C.E. Forest, Forest, R.W. R.W. Spencer, Spencer, R.S. R.S. Vose, Vose, R.W. R.W. Reynolds Reynolds Chapter Chapter 5. 5. How How well well can can the the observed observed vertical vertical temperature temperature changes changes be be reconciled reconciled with with our our understanding understanding of of the the causes causes of of these these temperature temperature changes? changes? by by Santer, Santer, B.D., B.D., J.E. J.E. Penner, Penner, P.W. P.W. Thorne Thorne Chapter Chapter 6. 6. What What measures measures can can be be taken taken to to improve improve our our understanding understanding of of observed observed changes? changes? by by Folland, Folland, C.K., C.K., D. D. Parker, Parker, R.W. R.W. Reynolds, Reynolds, S.C. S.C. Sherwood, Sherwood, P.W. P.W. Thorne Thorne Appendix Appendix AA.. Statistical Statistical Issues Issues Regarding Regarding Trends. Trends. by by Wigley, Wigley, T.M.L. T.M.L. Science Assessments Should Not Be Completed By Scientists Who Are Assessing Their Own Research Policymakers should look for win-win policies in order to improve the environment that we live in. The costs and benefits of the regulation of the emissions of CO22 into the atmosphere need to be evaluated together with all other possible environmental regulations. The goal should be to seek politically and technologically practical ways to reduce the vulnerability of the environment and society to the entire spectrum of humancaused and natural risks. An Example Of The Risks We Face From: Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: Global climate models - Many contributing influences. Citizen's Guide to Colorado Climate Change, Colorado Climate Foundation for Water Education, pp. 28-29. http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf To Move Forward We Need A Bottom-Up Resource Based Focus, Rather Than Relying On Downscaling From Global Climate Models Recommendations 1. 1. The The climate climate science science community community should should be be polled polled with with respect respect to to which which of of the the following following three three hypotheses hypotheses have have been been rejected: rejected: i. i. The The human human influence influence is is minimal minimal and and natural natural variations variations dominate dominate climate climate variations variations on on all all time time scales; scales; ii. ii. While While natural natural variations variations are are important, important, the the human human influence influence is is significant significant and and involves involves aa diverse diverse range range of of first-order first-order climate climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of of CO2; CO2; iii. iii. The The human human influence influence is is dominated dominated by by the the emissions emissions into into the the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. atmosphere of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. 2. 2. National National and and International International climate climate assessments assessments should should be be written written by by climate climate scientists scientists without without significant significant conflicts conflicts of of interest. interest. 3. 3. The The focus focus on on reducing reducing threats threats from from climate, climate, and and other other environmental, environmental, variability variability and and change change should should be be resource-based, resource-based, and and with with aa local local and and regional regional vulnerability vulnerability perspective perspective to to start start with (i.e. a "bottom-up assessment). Policy actions which with (i.e. a "bottom-up assessment). Policy actions which optimize optimize the the entire entire spectrum spectrum of of benefits benefits for for society society and and the the environment environment should should be be the the goal. goal. FINALLY There is a clear conflict of interest in the preparation of the IPCC and CCSP reports. The lead authors are individuals who are assessing their own research. There need to be new Committees convened which can provide a more objective assessment of climate, including the human role within it. Unless this is done, we are doomed to a continued repetition of the same information, which is misleading the public and policymakers with respect to what policy actions should be taken with respect to climate. Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites http://climatesci.colorado.edu/ http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/ Background Photograph Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by Dallas Jean Staley Research Assistant and Webmaster University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 [email protected]