* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Prediction as a Technology University of Colorado at Boulder Presented at the
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Numerical weather prediction wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Atmospheric model wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Prediction as a Technology Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Roger A. Pielke Jr. University of Colorado at Boulder Presented at the University of Texas at Austin January 25, 2007 A modified version was originally presented at Spoleto, Italy, July 15, 2006 There are three types of applications of these models: For process studies, for diagnosis and for forecasting Process Studies The application of climate models to improve our understanding of how the system works is a valuable application of these tools. The term sensitivity study characterizes such a process study. In a sensitivity study, a subset of the forcings and/or feedback of the climate system may be perturbed to examine its response. The model of the climate system might be incomplete and not include each of the important feedbacks and forcings. Diagnosis The application of climate models, in which observed data is assimilated into the model, to produce an observational analysis that is consistent with our best understanding of the climate system as represented by the manner in which the fundamental concepts and parameterizations are represented. Although not yet applied to climate models, this procedure is used for weather reanalyses (see the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project). Forecasting The application of climate models to predict the future state of the climate system. Forecasts can be made from a single realization, or from an ensemble of forecasts which are produced by slightly perturbing the initial conditions and/or other aspects of the model. The term ‘projection’ has been used to differentiate between a prediction and a projection. Dictionary definitions, however, indicate that these can mean the same thing, and that is how the climate impacts community interprets a ‘projection’ (i.e., as a forecast). The IPCC Models are Process Studies NOT Predictions The use of the term "projection" by the climate community obscures that they are not predictions, yet the impacts community treats them as predictions. Why is Weather Prediction Possible? Procedure To Make Weather Predictions 1. Observed initial weather conditions for "grid points" are obtained from satellites, balloon and surface data. 2. The change of the weather in time is solved on a computer for every grid point by marching forward in time steps of a minute or two. 3. Weather maps are periodically output to files for use by forecasters and the public. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_500_wnd.gif http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_mslp.gif http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_prcp.gif What are the Limits of Weather Prediction? What about Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction? Atmospheric Atmospheric carbon carbon dioxide dioxide record record from from Mauna Mauna Loa. Loa. C.D. C.D. Keeling Keeling and and T.P. T.P. Whorf, Whorf, Carbon Carbon Dioxide Dioxide Research Research Group, Group, Scripps Scripps Institution Institution of of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California 92093-0444. Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California 92093-0444. Period Period of of Record, Record, 1958-2004 1958-2004 http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf What is Necessary for Accurate Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction? National National Research Research Council, Council, 2005: 2005: Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Expanding Expanding the the Concept Concept and and Addressing Addressing Uncertainties, Uncertainties, Committee Committee on on Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing Effects Effects on on Climate, Climate, Climate Climate Research Research Committee, Committee, 224 224 pp. pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html Example of a pyrocumulus cloud (copyright 2001, Axel Thielmann). Example of industrial emissions from a smokestack From http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Laboratory/Aerosol/Images/anthro_smokestack.jpg U.S. Geological Survey land-cover classes for pre-1900’s natural conditions (left) and 1993 land-use patterns (right). From Marshall, C.H., Pielke Sr. R.A., Steyaert, L.T., 2003. Crop freezes and land-use change in Florida. Nature, 426, 29-30. http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-277.pdf From: Pielke, R.A., T.J. Lee, J.H. Copeland, J.L. Eastman, C.L. Ziegler, and C.A. Finley, 1997: Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations. Ecological Applications, 7, 3-21. http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-175.pdf • A Global Averages Surface Temperature Trend Tells Us Little About These Human Climate Forcings • Most of the Climate Forcings Are On Regional Scales But Have Global Effects • The Existence of These Human Climate Forcings Makes Multi-Decadal Climate Prediction A Very Difficult Task What is an Alternative for Decision Makers If Skillful Multidecadal Climate Prediction are not Possible? WE NEED TO FOCUS ON A BOTTOM-UP PERSPECTIVE OF THE THREATS TO SOCIETALLY IMPORTANT RESOURCES Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 Hurricane Damage North Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Hurricanes and Florida 1941-1950 Rapidly Increasing Losses Damage trend can’t be due to storm behavior alone Source: Source: C. C. Landsea Landsea 2006 2006 Source: C. Landsea, NOAA/HRD Two snapshots in time Recognize this place? Miami Beach 1926 Source: Wendler Collection How They Have Changed Miami Beach ~2000 Preliminary Data Preliminary Data – Most Damaging Storms • • • • • • • • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 1926 2005 1900 1992 1915 1938 1944 1928 1965 1903 Great Miami Katrina Galveston Andrew Storm 2 New England Storm 9 Lake Okeechobee Donna Storm 3 $129,700,000,000 $80,000,000,000 $53,100,000,000 $50,800,000,000 $50,200,000,000 $35,000,000,000 $34,300,000,000 $29,600,000,000 $23,900,000,000 $20,700,000,000 Preliminary Data – Most Damaging Years • • • • • • • • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 1926 2005 1900 1992 1915 1944 2004 1938 1954 1928 $141,400,000,000 $100,000,000,000 $53,100,000,000 $52,500,000,000 $52,200,000,000 $45,900,000,000 $45,100,000,000 $35,000,000,000 $32,700,000,000 $29,600,000,000 Looking Ahead What will future damages look like? ¾ Trend: doubling in real terms every 7-12 years ¾ If this trend continues by ~2020 ¾ 1926 Great Miami = ~$500 billion ¾ 1992 Andrew = ~200 billion ¾ 2005 Katrina = ~320 billion ¾ Damages will continue to rise ¾ We may continue to underestimate loss potentials Conclusions 1. Focus on regional and local scales. 2. Global warming is not equivalent to climate change. 3. The role of the radiative effect of the anthropogenic increase of CO2 on global warming, and more generally, on climate variability and change has been overstated 4. Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting climate change and variability on multidecadal time scales. 5. Attempts to significantly influence regional and local-scale climate based on controlling CO2 emissions alone is an inadequate policy for this purpose. 6. The assessment of the spectrum of threats to regional and local societal and environmental resources is a particularly effective framework to interact with policymakers. Publications and Presentations available at: Pielke Sr.’s Research Group http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke Pielke Jr.’s Research Group http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ Weblogs http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/ Presentation Prepared by Dallas Staley Professional Research Assistant [email protected] Email for copies of papers or presentations