Dynamics, Stratospheric Ozone, and Climate Change
... ozone distribution is approximately the same in the two hemispheres (Fig. 1 of Fioletov (this issue)). Below about 30 km (and during polar night), the lifetime of ozone is comparable to, or longer than, transport time scales and ozone is strongly affected by transport. Because most ozone is found in ...
... ozone distribution is approximately the same in the two hemispheres (Fig. 1 of Fioletov (this issue)). Below about 30 km (and during polar night), the lifetime of ozone is comparable to, or longer than, transport time scales and ozone is strongly affected by transport. Because most ozone is found in ...
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - e-Learning
... from 1968 to 1997, NAO (or NAM, see below) accounts for 1.6°C of the 3.0°C warming in Eurasian surface temperatures (IPCC, 2007). There were also significant effects on ocean heat content, sea ice, ocean currents and ocean heat transport (IPCC, 2007). That means, understanding the processes that gov ...
... from 1968 to 1997, NAO (or NAM, see below) accounts for 1.6°C of the 3.0°C warming in Eurasian surface temperatures (IPCC, 2007). There were also significant effects on ocean heat content, sea ice, ocean currents and ocean heat transport (IPCC, 2007). That means, understanding the processes that gov ...
Climate change detection in natural systems by
... point model allows for a time-varying trend and thus allows the identification of nonlinear changes. Its development starts from triangular functions, hence two linear segments, which match at particular change point choices. Although the endpoints of the time series remain fixed in the subsequent c ...
... point model allows for a time-varying trend and thus allows the identification of nonlinear changes. Its development starts from triangular functions, hence two linear segments, which match at particular change point choices. Although the endpoints of the time series remain fixed in the subsequent c ...
An investigation of the pattern scaling technique for describing future
... to highly complex mathematical models. The probability distributions – and thus the sources of uncertainty that they represent – may then be combined through Bayesian logic and Monte Carlo sampling into an overall assessment of future change that includes all the uncertainties of which we are aware. ...
... to highly complex mathematical models. The probability distributions – and thus the sources of uncertainty that they represent – may then be combined through Bayesian logic and Monte Carlo sampling into an overall assessment of future change that includes all the uncertainties of which we are aware. ...
Basic physical mechanisms for monsoon failure in past and future
... CLIMBER-3α, that project monsoon rainfall around the world to increase quasi–linearly with global warming in the coming centuries. While this is generally consistent with many other studies, the atmospheric component of CLIMBER-3α is based on a simplified statistical–dynamical approach, and may not ...
... CLIMBER-3α, that project monsoon rainfall around the world to increase quasi–linearly with global warming in the coming centuries. While this is generally consistent with many other studies, the atmospheric component of CLIMBER-3α is based on a simplified statistical–dynamical approach, and may not ...
Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi
... aversion can be simplified to a mean-variance model but where the expected return is adjusted to reflect the investor’s ambiguity about its estimate. The analytic expressions we obtain for the optimal portfolio weights allow us to provide insights about the effects of parameter and model uncertainty ...
... aversion can be simplified to a mean-variance model but where the expected return is adjusted to reflect the investor’s ambiguity about its estimate. The analytic expressions we obtain for the optimal portfolio weights allow us to provide insights about the effects of parameter and model uncertainty ...
China Meteorological Administration
... meteorological observing system incorporating space-based, airborne and groundbased observations, which has steadily improved the accuracy of weather forecasts and climate predictions. Its operational system has witnessed allround development covering climate change prediction & projection, weather ...
... meteorological observing system incorporating space-based, airborne and groundbased observations, which has steadily improved the accuracy of weather forecasts and climate predictions. Its operational system has witnessed allround development covering climate change prediction & projection, weather ...
Soil moisture regulates the biological response of
... Terrestrial biosphere models/land surface models are routinely used to study the effects of CO2 doubling and climate change. The objective of this study is to show that the biological response associated with CO2 doubling is important, and that the effects intrinsically depend on the soil moisture s ...
... Terrestrial biosphere models/land surface models are routinely used to study the effects of CO2 doubling and climate change. The objective of this study is to show that the biological response associated with CO2 doubling is important, and that the effects intrinsically depend on the soil moisture s ...
Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow
... Hydrologic Simulation Program―FORTRAN (HSPF) models. Scenarios of future climate change were developed based on statistically and dynamically downscaled climate model simulations representative of the period 2041−2070. Scenarios of urban and residential development for this same period were develope ...
... Hydrologic Simulation Program―FORTRAN (HSPF) models. Scenarios of future climate change were developed based on statistically and dynamically downscaled climate model simulations representative of the period 2041−2070. Scenarios of urban and residential development for this same period were develope ...
Anchoring amid uncertainty - Personal Page: Prof. Dr. Jeroen van
... of scientific knowledge that acts as scientific basis for the climate policy debate. Assessment draws upon information from research. Climate research programmes were developped in parallel with the emergence of assessment. Initially, climate research programmes aimed at the reduction of the uncerta ...
... of scientific knowledge that acts as scientific basis for the climate policy debate. Assessment draws upon information from research. Climate research programmes were developped in parallel with the emergence of assessment. Initially, climate research programmes aimed at the reduction of the uncerta ...
original articles aaem
... information for managing and preventing allergic symptoms. The effect of recent climate warming on vegetation phenology and aerobiology is an important issue which is being taken into account in climate-change studies [28, 53]. Because Quercus pollen emission is a springtime phenomenon, pollen seaso ...
... information for managing and preventing allergic symptoms. The effect of recent climate warming on vegetation phenology and aerobiology is an important issue which is being taken into account in climate-change studies [28, 53]. Because Quercus pollen emission is a springtime phenomenon, pollen seaso ...
US CLIVAR Science Plan
... US CLIVAR progress to date has increased public awareness of the impacts of climate variability on the safety and wellbeing of society. It has accomplished this through improved observing, understanding, modeling, and predicting our climate system. Continued advancement is needed in all these areas. ...
... US CLIVAR progress to date has increased public awareness of the impacts of climate variability on the safety and wellbeing of society. It has accomplished this through improved observing, understanding, modeling, and predicting our climate system. Continued advancement is needed in all these areas. ...
Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response
... the regular issuance of operational forecasts predicting when and where it will strike. At present, it is not computationally feasible to forecast turbulent eddies on horizontal scales of 100 m–2 km through explicit simulation with a global model of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Instead, c ...
... the regular issuance of operational forecasts predicting when and where it will strike. At present, it is not computationally feasible to forecast turbulent eddies on horizontal scales of 100 m–2 km through explicit simulation with a global model of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Instead, c ...
The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate
... Pierce et al. (2012); we refer the reader to that work for a detailed description. All ...
... Pierce et al. (2012); we refer the reader to that work for a detailed description. All ...
Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global
... adjustment of clouds to CO2 forcing and land-surface warming38, 39. Because it is unrelated to the global-mean surface temperature increase, this rapid adjustment is treated as a forcing rather than a feedback in the current feedback analysis framework40. An important implication is ...
... adjustment of clouds to CO2 forcing and land-surface warming38, 39. Because it is unrelated to the global-mean surface temperature increase, this rapid adjustment is treated as a forcing rather than a feedback in the current feedback analysis framework40. An important implication is ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.