Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south
... Many previous studies have used regression-based downscaling methods, which rely on empirical relationships between local-scale predictands and regional-scale predictors, to downscale daily and monthly GCM scenarios. These studies are differentiated from one another according to three major aspects: ...
... Many previous studies have used regression-based downscaling methods, which rely on empirical relationships between local-scale predictands and regional-scale predictors, to downscale daily and monthly GCM scenarios. These studies are differentiated from one another according to three major aspects: ...
The Resolution Dependence of Contiguous U.S. Precipitation
... Common approaches to work around such issues include the use of high-resolution atmosphere-only models or downscaling techniques. The latter includes methods based on the statistical distribution of precipitation in the present-day climate or further integration with a regional model, to add regiona ...
... Common approaches to work around such issues include the use of high-resolution atmosphere-only models or downscaling techniques. The latter includes methods based on the statistical distribution of precipitation in the present-day climate or further integration with a regional model, to add regiona ...
Endogeneity and Sampling of Alternatives in Spatial Choice Models
... Addressing the problem of omitted attributes and employing a sampling of alternatives strategy, are two key requirements of practical spatial choice models. The omission of attributes causes endogeneity when the unobserved variables are correlated with the measured variables, precluding the consiste ...
... Addressing the problem of omitted attributes and employing a sampling of alternatives strategy, are two key requirements of practical spatial choice models. The omission of attributes causes endogeneity when the unobserved variables are correlated with the measured variables, precluding the consiste ...
A Sensitivity Study of Radiative Fluxes at the Top of Atmosphere to
... 2013). To date, global climate models cannot fully treat details of the physical processes governing cloud and aerosol formation, lifetime, and radiative effects due to insufficient physical understanding or relatively coarse spatial resolution (due to computational limitation) that cannot resolve c ...
... 2013). To date, global climate models cannot fully treat details of the physical processes governing cloud and aerosol formation, lifetime, and radiative effects due to insufficient physical understanding or relatively coarse spatial resolution (due to computational limitation) that cannot resolve c ...
The ground-based FTIR network`s potential for investigating the
... et al. (2006b) it is demonstrated that high quality groundbased FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) spectrometer measurements can be used to retrieve δD profiles between the surface and the middle/upper troposphere. These measurements have been performed for up to two decades at globally distributed s ...
... et al. (2006b) it is demonstrated that high quality groundbased FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) spectrometer measurements can be used to retrieve δD profiles between the surface and the middle/upper troposphere. These measurements have been performed for up to two decades at globally distributed s ...
Ch4 Pre-release version - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
... to more complex scenarios based on climate model outputs.Transparency to users and limited computational resource requirements, which allow examination of a wide range of potential climate changes (the range is further increased by the possibility of changing individual variables independent of one ...
... to more complex scenarios based on climate model outputs.Transparency to users and limited computational resource requirements, which allow examination of a wide range of potential climate changes (the range is further increased by the possibility of changing individual variables independent of one ...
Almost Surely Asymptotic Stability of Numerical Solutions for Neutral
... Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. We investigate the almost surely asymptotic stability of Euler-type methods for neutral stochastic delay differential equations NSDDEs using the d ...
... Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. We investigate the almost surely asymptotic stability of Euler-type methods for neutral stochastic delay differential equations NSDDEs using the d ...
Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations
... hypothesis has inspired many models2–5 , variously depending upon Earth obliquity, orbital eccentricity, and precessional fluctuations, with the latter usually emphasized. A contrasting hypothesis is that glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability6–8 . Progress req ...
... hypothesis has inspired many models2–5 , variously depending upon Earth obliquity, orbital eccentricity, and precessional fluctuations, with the latter usually emphasized. A contrasting hypothesis is that glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability6–8 . Progress req ...
Reports of Phase 2 Activity, January 2005
... The first explicit risk management responses for adaptation to climate change in south-west Western Australia were taken, in 1988, by water managers who based forward planning on a scenario of gradual decline in rainfall from 1970 to 2040 caused by global warming from the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. ...
... The first explicit risk management responses for adaptation to climate change in south-west Western Australia were taken, in 1988, by water managers who based forward planning on a scenario of gradual decline in rainfall from 1970 to 2040 caused by global warming from the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. ...
Temperatures in transient climates
... Potential future changes in temperature variability are not yet well understood. By its third assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that there was some empirical evidence for a decrease in variability at intra-annual timescales, but sparse evidence for change ...
... Potential future changes in temperature variability are not yet well understood. By its third assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that there was some empirical evidence for a decrease in variability at intra-annual timescales, but sparse evidence for change ...
Future Climate Change: Modeling and Scenarios
... more complex scenarios based on climate model outputs.Transparency to users and limited computational resource requirements, which allow examination of a wide range of potential climate changes (the range is further increased by the possibility of changing individual variables independent of one ano ...
... more complex scenarios based on climate model outputs.Transparency to users and limited computational resource requirements, which allow examination of a wide range of potential climate changes (the range is further increased by the possibility of changing individual variables independent of one ano ...
Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining
... 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-l ...
... 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-l ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.