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14 Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
14 Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

... of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates. The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by region, but the specific char ...
[pdf]
[pdf]

a sensitive matter - The Global Warming Policy Foundation
a sensitive matter - The Global Warming Policy Foundation

Mid-Holocene monsoons - Macquarie University ResearchOnline
Mid-Holocene monsoons - Macquarie University ResearchOnline

Processes Responsible for Cloud Feedback
Processes Responsible for Cloud Feedback

... temperature signatures and may therefore produce a different cloud response than would a forced climate change [18]. While one could try to overcome this by working out local temperature-cloud relationships, processes responsible for cloud feedback may not be directly related to global or local surf ...
Insights to Key Questions about Climate Change
Insights to Key Questions about Climate Change

The terrestrial carbon cycle on the regional and global scale
The terrestrial carbon cycle on the regional and global scale

... and scenarios. Furthermore, simulation models can help in exchanging information across different scales. The terrestrial C-cycle model of IMAGE 2 (Integrated Model for Assessing the Global Environment) forms the backbone of this thesis. IMAGE 2 is an integrated approach that includes both socio-eco ...
Arctic oscillation response to the 1991 Pinatubo
Arctic oscillation response to the 1991 Pinatubo

2007-2012 Hadley Centre Climate Programme
2007-2012 Hadley Centre Climate Programme

... gas emissions. Model development has remained a central Met Office Hadley Centre activity with ad­ vances in three distinct areas. First, increases in High Performance Computing have been ex­ ploited to set up models with greater spatial detail, capable of explicitly representing more climate process ...
- Lancaster EPrints
- Lancaster EPrints

... quantifying the evolution since the pre-industrial period through to the end of the 21st ...
explaining extreme events of 2013
explaining extreme events of 2013

... greatly increased the risk for the extreme heat waves assessed in this report. How human influence affected other types of events such as droughts, heavy rain events, and storms was less clear, indicating that natural variability likely played a much larger role in these extremes. Multiple groups ch ...
Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate
Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate

... Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that is currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper, 20 different research groups explored the causes of 16 different events that occurred in 2013. The findings indicate that human-caused climate change greatly increased t ...
O'Reilly et al (2010)
O'Reilly et al (2010)

... parameters combined with Monte-Carlo analysis.61,62 Conflict uncertainty refers to the fact that, even when presented with the same information, experts may come to different conclusions about its significance, placing experts into conflict with each other. (Experts may also find themselves in confl ...
The Effects of Climate Change and Variation in New Zealand
The Effects of Climate Change and Variation in New Zealand

Climate Change Scenarios + cov.
Climate Change Scenarios + cov.

... and its applicability. It is important that adaptation decisions are based on a range of climate scenarios accounting for the many uncertainties associated with projecting future climate (Section 3). These are most conveniently derived by groups of neighbouring countries working together over a cert ...
Spin-up behavior of soil moisture content over East Asia in a land
Spin-up behavior of soil moisture content over East Asia in a land

... assuming the same soil/vegetation conditions and identical atmospheric forcing, the simulated SMCs show significant discrepancies between LSMs. Thus, soil moisture initialization using data from a LSM that is different from the LSM used for a prediction model may result in some erroneous predictions ...
Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5
Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5

Observed 20th Century Desert Dust Variability: Impact on Climate
Observed 20th Century Desert Dust Variability: Impact on Climate

Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2

... for different emission scenarios. As shown in Rogelj et al. [2012], the radiative forcing prescribed in the SRES and RCP scenarios can lead to different average temperature responses, and we expect that this will also be evident in seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation extremes. [7] As a ...
Lagrangian and Eulerian Descriptions in Solid Mechanics and Their
Lagrangian and Eulerian Descriptions in Solid Mechanics and Their

... The Lagrangian descriptions using second Piola-Kirchhoff stress and Green’s strain (with displacement as dependent variables) permitting large motion and large strain remain the most widely used strategy for developing mathematical models for solids. In this approach the governing differential equat ...
Lecture 14: Generative Models
Lecture 14: Generative Models

Regional Climate Projections
Regional Climate Projections

Read the Full Report - MAP Dashboard
Read the Full Report - MAP Dashboard

... Extreme weather impacts the economy and society in many ways. Since 2010, the state of Arizona has lost more than $3 billion in direct damages from extreme weather. Averaging $500 million per year, losses equal more than 5% of the state government’s annual operating budget.1 Tucson, and the surround ...
Summer climate and heatwaves in Europe
Summer climate and heatwaves in Europe

... Impact studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...
Impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols on clouds and
Impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols on clouds and

... used extensively here. In addition, it is not the author's intention to produce a thorough literature review or survey, which is nearly impossible and also unnecessary for this dynamical field. Instead, only a few selected representative results are discussed. The review starts from a discussion of ...
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Numerical weather prediction



Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.
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