Download Prediction as a Technology

Prediction as a
Technology
Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Roger A. Pielke Jr.
University of Colorado at Boulder
Presented at Spoleto, Italy, July 15, 2006
Congratulations to Italy
on the World Cup !!!!
Why is Weather Prediction
Possible?
Procedure To Make Weather
Predictions
1. Observed initial weather conditions for "grid
points" are obtained from satellites, balloon and
surface data.
2. The change of the weather in time is solved on a
computer for every grid point by marching forward
in time steps of a minute or two.
3. Weather maps are periodically output to files for
use by forecasters and the public.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_500_wnd.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_mslp.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta24hr_sfc_prcp.gif
What are the Limits of
Weather Prediction?
What about Multi-Decadal
Climate Prediction?
Atmospheric
Atmospheric carbon
carbon dioxide
dioxide record
record from
from Mauna
Mauna Loa.
Loa. C.D.
C.D. Keeling
Keeling and
and T.P.
T.P.
Whorf,
Whorf, Carbon
Carbon Dioxide
Dioxide Research
Research Group,
Group, Scripps
Scripps Institution
Institution of
of
Oceanography,
University
of
California,
La
Jolla,
California
92093-0444.
Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California 92093-0444.
Period
Period of
of Record,
Record, 1958-2004
1958-2004
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf
What is Necessary for
Accurate Multi-Decadal
Climate Prediction?
National
National Research
Research Council,
Council, 2005:
2005:
Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing of
of Climate
Climate Change:
Change:
Expanding
Expanding the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing
Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee on
on Radiative
Radiative
Forcing
Forcing Effects
Effects on
on Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate
Research
Research
Committee,
Committee, 224
224 pp.
pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept
and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research
Committee, 224 pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
Example of a
pyrocumulus cloud
(copyright 2001, Axel
Thielmann).
Example of industrial
emissions from a
smokestack
From
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Laboratory/Aerosol/Images/anthro_smokestack.jpg
U.S. Geological Survey land-cover classes for pre-1900’s natural conditions
(left) and 1993 land-use patterns (right). From Marshall, C.H., Pielke Sr.
R.A., Steyaert, L.T., 2003. Crop freezes and land-use change in Florida.
Nature, 426, 29-30.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-277.pdf
From: Pielke, R.A., T.J. Lee, J.H. Copeland, J.L. Eastman, C.L. Ziegler, and C.A. Finley,
1997: Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations.
Ecological Applications, 7, 3-21.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-175.pdf
• A Global Averages Surface Temperature
Trend Tells Us Little About These Human
Climate Forcings
• Most of the Climate Forcings Are On
Regional Scales But Have Global Effects
• The Existence of These Human Climate
Forcings Makes Multi-Decadal Climate
Prediction A Very Difficult Task
What is an Alternative for
Decision Makers If Skillful Multidecadal Climate
Prediction are not Possible?
WE NEED TO FOCUS ON A BOTTOM-UP PERSPECTIVE OF THE
THREATS TO SOCIETALLY IMPORTANT RESOURCES
Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005
Hurricane Damage
North Atlantic Tropical Storms and
Hurricanes
Hurricanes and Florida 1941-1950
Rapidly Increasing Losses
Damage trend can’t be due to storm behavior alone
Source:
Source: C.
C. Landsea
Landsea 2006
2006
Source: C. Landsea, NOAA/HRD
Two snapshots in time
Recognize this place?
Miami Beach
1926
Source:
Wendler Collection
How They Have Changed
Miami Beach
~2000
Preliminary Data
Preliminary Data – Most
Damaging Storms
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
1926
2005
1900
1992
1915
1938
1944
1928
1965
1903
Great Miami
Katrina
Galveston
Andrew
Storm 2
New England
Storm 9
Lake Okeechobee
Donna
Storm 3
$129,700,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$53,100,000,000
$50,800,000,000
$50,200,000,000
$35,000,000,000
$34,300,000,000
$29,600,000,000
$23,900,000,000
$20,700,000,000
Preliminary Data – Most
Damaging Years
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
1926
2005
1900
1992
1915
1944
2004
1938
1954
1928
$141,400,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$53,100,000,000
$52,500,000,000
$52,200,000,000
$45,900,000,000
$45,100,000,000
$35,000,000,000
$32,700,000,000
$29,600,000,000
Looking Ahead
What will future damages look like?
¾ Trend: doubling in real terms every 7-12 years
¾ If this trend continues by ~2020
¾ 1926 Great Miami = ~$500 billion
¾ 1992 Andrew = ~200 billion
¾ 2005 Katrina = ~320 billion
¾ Damages will continue to rise
¾ We may continue to underestimate loss potentials
Conclusions
1. Focus on regional and local scales.
2. Global warming is not equivalent to
climate change.
3. The role of the radiative effect of the
anthropogenic increase of CO2 on global
warming, and more generally, on climate
variability and change has been overstated
4. Global and regional climate models have
not demonstrated skill at predicting
climate change and variability on multidecadal time scales.
5. Attempts to significantly influence
regional and local-scale climate based on
controlling CO2 emissions alone is an
inadequate policy for this purpose.
6. The assessment of the spectrum of
threats to regional and local societal and
environmental resources is a particularly
effective framework to interact with
policymakers.
Publications and Presentations available at:
Pielke Sr.’s Research Group
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu
Pielke Jr.’s Research Group
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/
Weblogs
http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/
Presentation Prepared by
Dallas Staley
Research Coordinator
970-491-8293
[email protected]
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