Download A Bottom Up, Resource- Based Perspective To Deal With Climate Variability and Change

A Bottom Up, ResourceBased Perspective To
Deal With Climate
Variability and Change
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO
CUAHSI Hydrologic Synthesis Summer Institute
City College of New York, New York, NY
July 14, 2009
There Needs To Be A
New Approach To
Dealing With Climate
Variability
and Change
The Reasons Include the
Following:
1. The Observed Climate Data Is Conflicting
Significantly With The IPCC Model
Predictions Even On The Global Scale
2. Even If One Concludes That The Deviation
From The Models Is Short Term, The IPCC
Models Have Never Demonstrated Regional
Prediction Skill
3. "Global Warming" Is Just A Subset Of
Climate Variability and Change
4. The Policy Approach Of Top Down Driven
Regulations Is Not Working
Lets Look At Some Data
From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
TLT
TMT
TTS
TLS
Figure
Figure 7.
7. Global,
Global, monthly
monthly time
time
series
series of
of brightness
brightness temperature
temperature
anomaly
anomaly for
for channels
channels TLT,
TLT, TMT,
TMT,
TTS,
TTS, and
and TLS.
TLS. For
For Channel
Channel TLT
TLT
(Lower
(Lower Troposphere)
Troposphere) and
and Channel
Channel
TMT
(Middle
Troposphere),
TMT (Middle Troposphere), the
the
anomaly
time
series
is
dominated
anomaly time series is dominated
by
by ENSO
ENSO events
events and
and slow
slow
tropospheric
tropospheric warming.
warming. The
The three
three
primary
primary El
El Niños
Niños during
during the
the past
past
20
years
are
clearly
evident
as
20 years are clearly evident as
peaks
peaks in
in the
the time
time series
series occurring
occurring
during
during 1982-83,
1982-83, 1987-88,
1987-88, and
and
1997-98,
1997-98, with
with the
the most
most recent
recent one
one
being
being the
the largest.
largest. Channel
Channel TLS
TLS
(Lower
(Lower Stratosphere)
Stratosphere) is
is dominated
dominated
by
stratospheric
cooling,
by stratospheric cooling,
punctuated
punctuated by
by dramatic
dramatic warming
warming
events
events caused
caused by
by the
the eruptions
eruptions of
of
El
El Chichon
Chichon (1982)
(1982) and
and Mt
Mt Pinatubo
Pinatubo
(1991).
(1991). Channel
Channel TTS
TTS (Troposphere
(Troposphere
// Stratosphere)
appears
Stratosphere) appears to
to be
be aa
mixture
mixture of
of both
both effects.
effects. From:
From:
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_
data_description.html
data_description.html
Courtesy
Courtesy of:
of: Dr.
Dr. John
John Christy,
Christy, UAH,
UAH, (256)
(256) 961-7763
961-7763 ([email protected])
([email protected])
and
and Dr.
Dr. Roy
Roy Spencer,
Spencer, UAH,
UAH, (256)
(256) 961-7960
961-7960 ([email protected])
([email protected])
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg
El
El Nino
Nino bumps
bumps up
up SST
SST temperatures.
temperatures. From:
From:
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/hadsst-highest-values-since-1998/
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/hadsst-highest-values-since-1998/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/hov/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/hov/
Figure 1: Four-year rate of the global upper 700 m of ocean heat
changes in Joules at monthly time intervals. One standard error value is
also shown. (Figure courtesy of Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion
Laboratory).
What Does the
Science Tell Us?
National Research Council, 2005:
Radiative Forcing of Climate
Change: Expanding the Concept and
Addressing Uncertainties,
Committee on Radiative Forcing
Effects on Climate, Climate Research
Committee, 224 pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.ht
ml
From:
From: National
National Research
Research Council,
Council, 2005:
2005: Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing of
of Climate
Climate
Change:
Change: Expanding
Expanding the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee
on
on Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing Effects
Effects on
on Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate Research
Research Committee,
Committee, 224
224
pp.
pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
Despite all... [its]... advantages, the
traditional global mean TOA radiative
forcing concept has some important
limitations, which have come increasingly
to light over the past decade. The concept is
inadequate for some forcing agents, such as
absorbing aerosols and land-use changes,
that may have regional climate impacts
much greater than would be predicted from
TOA radiative forcing. Also, it diagnoses
only one measure of climate change - global
mean surface temperature response - while
offering little information on regional
climate change or precipitation.
from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11175&page=4
The 2005 National Research
Council report concluded that:
"regional variations in radiative forcing may have important
regional and global climate implications that are not resolved by
the concept of global mean radiative forcing.“
And furthermore:
"Regional diabatic heating can cause atmospheric teleconnections
that influence regional climate thousands of kilometers away from
the point of forcing."
This regional diabatic heating produces temperature increases or
decreases in the layer-averaged regional troposphere. This
necessarily alters the regional pressure fields and thus the wind
pattern. This pressure and wind pattern then affects the pressure
and wind patterns at large distances from the region of the forcing
which we refer to as teleconnections.
Some Examples
REGIONAL LAND-USE
CHANGE EFFECTS ON
CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN
THE SUMMER
U.S.
U.S. Geological
Geological Survey
Survey land-cover
land-cover classes
classes for
for pre-1900’s
pre-1900’s natural
natural conditions
conditions (left)
(left)
and
and 1993
1993 land-use
land-use patterns
patterns (right).
(right). From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T.
Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change
on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon.
Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Rhttp://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R272.pdf
272.pdf
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
of
anthropogenic
land-cover
change
on
the
Florida
peninsula
sea
breezes
impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes
and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28
28 52.
52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Associated
Associated convective
convective rainfall
rainfall (mm)
(mm) from
from the
the model
model simulations
simulations of
of
July-August
July-August 1973
1973 with
with pre-1900s
pre-1900s land
land cover
cover (top),
(top), 1993
1993 land
land use
use
(middle),
(middle), and
and the
the difference
difference field
field for
for the
the two
two (bottom;
(bottom; 1993
1993 minus
minus
pre-1900s
pre-1900s case).
case). From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert,
and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover
change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season
sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Same
Same as
as previous
previous figure
figure except
except for
for July
July and
and August,
August, 1989.
1989. From
From Marshall,
Marshall,
C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of
anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and
warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Max and Min
Temp Trends
Two-month
Two-month average
average of
of the
the daily
daily maximum
maximum shelter-level
shelter-level temperature
temperature (°C)
(°C) from
from the
the
model
model simulations
simulations of
of Jul-Aug
Jul-Aug 1989
1989 with
with (top)
(top) natural
natural land
land cover,
cover, (middle)
(middle) current
current
land
land cover.
cover. From
From Marshall
Marshall et
et al.
al. 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover
change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather.
Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Regional Land-Use
Change Effects On
Climate In The Eastern
United States in June
Albedo:
Albedo: 1650,
1650, 1850,
1850, 1920,
1920, 1992
1992
Historical
Historical Patterns
Patterns of
of
Broadband
Broadband Solar
Solar Albedo:
Albedo:
(a)
(a) 1650
1650
(b)
(b) 1850
1850
(c)
(c) 1920
1920
(d)
(d) 1992
1992
Source:
Source: Steyaert,
Steyaert, L.
L. T.,
T., and
and R.
R. G.
G. Knox,
Knox, 2008:
2008: Reconstructed
Reconstructed
historical
land
cover
and
biophysical
parameters
historical land cover and biophysical parameters for
for studies
studies of
of landlandatmosphere
interactions
within
the
eastern
United
States,
J.
atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res.,, 113,
113, D02101,
D02101,
doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
Surface Roughness Length:
1650, 1850, 1920, 1992
Historical
Patterns of
Surface
Roughness
Length (cm):
(a)
(a) 1650
1650
(b)
(b) 1850
1850
(c)
(c) 1920
1920
(d)
(d) 1992
1992
Source:
Source: Steyaert,
Steyaert, L.
L. T.,
T., and
and R.
R. G.
G. Knox,
Knox, 2008:
2008: Reconstructed
Reconstructed historical
historical
land
land cover
cover and
and biophysical
biophysical parameters
parameters for
for studies
studies of
of land-atmosphere
land-atmosphere
interactions
interactions within
within the
the eastern
eastern United
United States,
States, J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., J.
J.
,
113,
D02101,
doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
Geophys.
Res.
Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277.
a.)
a.) Maximum
Maximum temperature
temperature (ºC)
(ºC)
with
with 1992
1992 land
land cover.
cover. Dashed
Dashed
box
shows
area
of
region
box shows area of region 11
and
and solid
solid box
box shows
shows area
area of
of
region
region 2.
2. Difference
Difference in
in
maximum
maximum temperature
temperature
between
between 1992
1992 and
and b.)
b.) 1650,
1650,
c.)
c.) 1850,
1850, d.)
d.) 1920.
1920. From
From
Strack,
J.E.,
R.A.
Pielke
Strack, J.E., R.A. Pielke Sr,
Sr, L.T.
L.T.
Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and R.G.
R.G. Knox,
Knox, 2008:
2008:
Sensitivity
Sensitivity of
of June
June nearnearsurface
surface temperatures
temperatures and
and
precipitation
precipitation in
in the
the eastern
eastern
United
States
to
historical
United States to historical land
land
cover
changes
since
European
cover changes since European
settlement.
settlement. Water
Water Resources
Resources
Research,
Research, 44,
44, W11401,
W11401,
doi:10.1029/2007WR00654.
doi:10.1029/2007WR00654.
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf
From:
From: Adegoke,
Adegoke, J.O.,
J.O., R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., and
and A.M.
A.M. Carleton,
Carleton,
2007:
2007: Observational
Observational and
and
modeling
modeling studies
studies of
of the
the
impacts
impacts of
of agriculture-related
agriculture-related
land
land use
use change
change on
on climate
climate in
in
the
the central
central U.S.
U.S. Agric.
Agric. Forest
Forest
Meteor.,
Meteor., Special
Special Issue,
Issue, 132,
132,
203-215.
203-215.
http://www.climatesci.org/pu
http://www.climatesci.org/pu
blications/pdf/R-295.pdf
blications/pdf/R-295.pdf
The Spatial Pattern of
Radiative Heating From
the Human Input Of
Aerosols into
the Atmosphere
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Shortwave
Shortwave
aerosol
aerosol direct
direct
radiative
radiative forcing
forcing
(ADRF)
(ADRF) for
for top-of
top-of
atmosphere
atmosphere (TOA),
(TOA),
surface,
surface, and
and
atmosphere.
atmosphere. From:
From:
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
Measurement-based
estimation
estimation of
of the
the
spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of
aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative
forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys.
Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL
doi:10.1029/2006GL
025974.
025974.
http://climatesci.col
http://climatesci.col
orado.edu/publicati
orado.edu/publicati
ons/pdf/R-312.pdf
ons/pdf/R-312.pdf
raditive forcing
(W/m2)
mean TOA radiative forcing
2
1
1.7
-1.59
-1.38
GRF
ADRF
AIRF
0
-1
-2
Figure 4. Comparison of Mean TOA radiative forcing between infrared GRF, shortwave
ADRF, and shortwave AIRF. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurementbased estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res.
Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
NGoRF
NGoRF
surface
surface
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(meri)
ADRF(meri)
NGoRF
NGoRF
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
Figure
Figure 5.
5. Comparison
Comparison of
of
the
the meridional
meridional and
and the
the
zonal
zonal component
component of
of
NGoRF
NGoRF between
between infrared
infrared
GRF,
GRF, shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF,
10
15
20
10
15
20
and
and shortwave
shortwave AIRF
AIRF for
for
distance
distance (degree)
(degree)
atmosphere
atmosphere and
and surface.
surface.
From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and
AIRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
AIRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
AIRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
AIRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
Measurement-based
Measurement-based
atmosphere
atmosphere
estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial
gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol
radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL025
doi:10.1029/2006GL025
10
15
20
10
15
20 974.
974.
http://climatesci.colora
http://climatesci.colora
do.edu/publications/pdf
do.edu/publications/pdf
/R-312.pdf
/R-312.pdf
These other forcings, such as
land-use change and from
atmospheric pollution aerosols,
may have a greater effect on
our climate than the effects
that have been claimed for CO2
In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found
from observations of the spatial distribution
of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower
latitudes, that the aerosol effect on
atmospheric circulations, as a result of their
alteration in the heating of regions of the
atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to
the heating effect of the human addition of
well-mixed greenhouse gases.
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the
spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
The Regional Alteration in
Tropospheric Diabatic
Heating has a Greater
Influence on the Climate
System than a Change in the
Globally-Averaged Surface
and Tropospheric
Temperatures
Comments By Others
From
From Foley,
Foley, J.,
J., 2007:
2007: Planet
Planet against
against the
the grain.
grain. Presented
Presented at
at the
the NASA
NASA Land-Cover
Land-Cover and
and
Land-Use
Land-Use Change
Change Science
Science Team
Team Meeting,
Meeting, UMUC
UMUC Inn
Inn and
and Conference
Conference Center,
Center, Adelphi,
Adelphi,
MD,
MD, April
April 4
4 -- 6,
6, 2007.
2007.
From
From Foley,
Foley, J.,
J., 2007:
2007: Planet
Planet against
against the
the grain.
grain. Presented
Presented at
at the
the NASA
NASA Land-Cover
Land-Cover and
and
Land-Use
Land-Use Change
Change Science
Science Team
Team Meeting,
Meeting, UMUC
UMUC Inn
Inn and
and Conference
Conference Center,
Center, Adelphi,
Adelphi,
MD,
MD, April
April 4
4 -- 6,
6, 2007.
2007.
From
From Foley,
Foley, J.,
J., 2007:
2007: Planet
Planet against
against the
the grain.
grain. Presented
Presented at
at the
the NASA
NASA Land-Cover
Land-Cover and
and
Land-Use
Land-Use Change
Change Science
Science Team
Team Meeting,
Meeting, UMUC
UMUC Inn
Inn and
and Conference
Conference Center,
Center, Adelphi,
Adelphi,
MD,
MD, April
April 4
4 -- 6,
6, 2007.
2007.
From
From Foley,
Foley, J.,
J., 2007:
2007: Planet
Planet against
against the
the grain.
grain. Presented
Presented at
at the
the NASA
NASA Land-Cover
Land-Cover and
and
Land-Use
Land-Use Change
Change Science
Science Team
Team Meeting,
Meeting, UMUC
UMUC Inn
Inn and
and Conference
Conference Center,
Center, Adelphi,
Adelphi,
MD,
MD, April
April 4
4 -- 6,
6, 2007.
2007.
From
From Foley,
Foley, J.,
J., 2007:
2007: Planet
Planet against
against the
the grain.
grain. Presented
Presented at
at the
the NASA
NASA Land-Cover
Land-Cover and
and
Land-Use
Land-Use Change
Change Science
Science Team
Team Meeting,
Meeting, UMUC
UMUC Inn
Inn and
and Conference
Conference Center,
Center, Adelphi,
Adelphi,
MD,
MD, April
April 4
4 -- 6,
6, 2007.
2007.
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A.
Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions,
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.
"Geographically distributed predictions of future
climate, obtained through climate models, are widely
used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically
without assessing their reliability. Here we compare
the output of various models to temperature and
precipitation observations from eight stations with
long (over 100 years) records from around the globe.
The results show that models perform poorly, even at
a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections
cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that
models can perform better at larger spatial scales is
unsupported."
We Need A New Approach
The Vulnerability Perspective
To Move Forward We Need A
Bottom-Up Resource Based
Focus, Rather Than Relying
On Downscaling From
Global Climate Models
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., 2008:
2008: Global
Global climate
climate models
models -- Many
Many contributing
contributing
influences.
influences. Citizen's
Citizen's Guide
Guide to
to Colorado
Colorado Climate
Climate Change,
Change, Colorado
Colorado Climate
Climate
Foundation
Foundation for
for Water
Water Education,
Education, pp.
pp. 28-29.
28-29.
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf
http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf
From:
From: Bravo
Bravo de
de Guenni,
Guenni, L.,
L., R.E.
R.E. Schulze,
Schulze, R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., and
and M.F.
M.F. Hutchinson,
Hutchinson,
2004:
2004: The
The vulnerability
vulnerability approach.
approach. Chapter
Chapter E.5
E.5 In:
In: Vegetation,
Vegetation, Water,
Water, Humans
Humans
and
and the
the Climate:
Climate: A
A New
New Perspective
Perspective on
on an
an Interactive
Interactive System.
System. Global
Global Change
Change
-- The
The IGBP
IGBP Series,
Series, P.
P. Kabat
Kabat et
et al.,
al., Eds.,
Eds., Springer,
Springer, 499-514.
499-514.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-40.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-40.pdf
From:
From: Pielke,
Pielke, R.A.
R.A. Sr.,
Sr., and
and L.
L. Bravo
Bravo de
de Guenni,
Guenni, 2004:
2004: Conclusions.
Conclusions. Chapter
Chapter E.7
E.7
In:
In: Vegetation,
Vegetation, Water,
Water, Humans
Humans and
and the
the Climate:
Climate: A
A New
New Perspective
Perspective on
on an
an
Interactive
Interactive System.
System. Global
Global Change
Change -- The
The IGBP
IGBP Series,
Series, P.
P. Kabat
Kabat et
et al.,
al., Eds.,
Eds.,
Springer,
Springer, 537-538.
537-538. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-42.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-42.pdf
Recommendations
1.
1.
The
The climate
climate science
science community
community should
should be
be polled
polled with
with respect
respect to
to
which
which of
of the
the following
following three
three hypotheses
hypotheses have
have been
been rejected:
rejected:
i.
i.
The
The human
human influence
influence is
is minimal
minimal and
and natural
natural variations
variations
dominate
climate
variations
on
all
time
scales;
dominate climate variations on all time scales;
ii.
ii.
While
While natural
natural variations
variations are
are important,
important, the
the human
human influence
influence
is
is significant
significant and
and involves
involves aa diverse
diverse range
range of
of first-order
first-order
climate
climate forcings,
forcings, including,
including, but
but not
not limited
limited to
to the
the human
human
input
input of
of CO2;
CO2;
iii.
iii.
The
The human
human influence
influence is
is dominated
dominated by
by the
the emissions
emissions into
into the
the
atmosphere
atmosphere of
of greenhouse
greenhouse gases,
gases, particularly
particularly carbon
carbon
dioxide.
dioxide.
2.
2.
National
National and
and International
International climate
climate assessments
assessments should
should be
be
written
written by
by climate
climate scientists
scientists without
without significant
significant conflicts
conflicts of
of
interest.
interest.
3.
3.
The
The focus
focus on
on reducing
reducing threats
threats from
from climate,
climate, and
and other
other
environmental,
environmental, variability
variability and
and change
change should
should be
be resource-based,
resource-based,
and
with
a
local
and
regional
vulnerability
perspective
and with a local and regional vulnerability perspective to
to start
start
with
with (i.e.
(i.e. aa "bottom-up
"bottom-up assessment).
assessment). Policy
Policy actions
actions which
which
optimize
optimize the
the entire
entire spectrum
spectrum of
of benefits
benefits for
for society
society and
and the
the
environment
should
be
the
goal.
environment should be the goal.
So what is my suggestion? There is no
doubt in my mind that there are multiple
types of human climate forcings. CO22 is
important and we need to look at it, but
there is a range of other forcings.
Policymakers should look for win-win
policies
in
order
to
improve
the
environment that we live in. The costs and
benefits of the regulation of the emissions
of CO22 into the atmosphere need to be
evaluated together with all other possible
environmental regulations. The goal should
be to seek politically and technologically
practical ways to reduce the vulnerability
of the environment and society to the
entire spectrum of human-caused and
natural risks.
Background Photograph Courtesy
of Mike Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm
Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/
PowerPoint Presentation
Prepared by
Dallas Jean Staley
Research Assistant and
Webmaster
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado 80309
[email protected]