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A Bottom Up, ResourceBased Perspective To Deal With Climate Variability and Change Roger A. Pielke Sr. University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO CUAHSI Hydrologic Synthesis Summer Institute City College of New York, New York, NY July 14, 2009 There Needs To Be A New Approach To Dealing With Climate Variability and Change The Reasons Include the Following: 1. The Observed Climate Data Is Conflicting Significantly With The IPCC Model Predictions Even On The Global Scale 2. Even If One Concludes That The Deviation From The Models Is Short Term, The IPCC Models Have Never Demonstrated Regional Prediction Skill 3. "Global Warming" Is Just A Subset Of Climate Variability and Change 4. The Policy Approach Of Top Down Driven Regulations Is Not Working Lets Look At Some Data From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html TLT TMT TTS TLS Figure Figure 7. 7. Global, Global, monthly monthly time time series series of of brightness brightness temperature temperature anomaly anomaly for for channels channels TLT, TLT, TMT, TMT, TTS, TTS, and and TLS. TLS. For For Channel Channel TLT TLT (Lower (Lower Troposphere) Troposphere) and and Channel Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), TMT (Middle Troposphere), the the anomaly time series is dominated anomaly time series is dominated by by ENSO ENSO events events and and slow slow tropospheric tropospheric warming. warming. The The three three primary primary El El Niños Niños during during the the past past 20 years are clearly evident as 20 years are clearly evident as peaks peaks in in the the time time series series occurring occurring during during 1982-83, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1987-88, and and 1997-98, 1997-98, with with the the most most recent recent one one being being the the largest. largest. Channel Channel TLS TLS (Lower (Lower Stratosphere) Stratosphere) is is dominated dominated by stratospheric cooling, by stratospheric cooling, punctuated punctuated by by dramatic dramatic warming warming events events caused caused by by the the eruptions eruptions of of El El Chichon Chichon (1982) (1982) and and Mt Mt Pinatubo Pinatubo (1991). (1991). Channel Channel TTS TTS (Troposphere (Troposphere // Stratosphere) appears Stratosphere) appears to to be be aa mixture mixture of of both both effects. effects. From: From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_ http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_ data_description.html data_description.html Courtesy Courtesy of: of: Dr. Dr. John John Christy, Christy, UAH, UAH, (256) (256) 961-7763 961-7763 ([email protected]) ([email protected]) and and Dr. Dr. Roy Roy Spencer, Spencer, UAH, UAH, (256) (256) 961-7960 961-7960 ([email protected]) ([email protected]) http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg El El Nino Nino bumps bumps up up SST SST temperatures. temperatures. From: From: http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/hadsst-highest-values-since-1998/ http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/hadsst-highest-values-since-1998/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/hov/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/hov/ Figure 1: Four-year rate of the global upper 700 m of ocean heat changes in Joules at monthly time intervals. One standard error value is also shown. (Figure courtesy of Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory). What Does the Science Tell Us? National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.ht ml From: From: National National Research Research Council, Council, 2005: 2005: Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Expanding Expanding the the Concept Concept and and Addressing Addressing Uncertainties, Uncertainties, Committee Committee on on Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing Effects Effects on on Climate, Climate, Climate Climate Research Research Committee, Committee, 224 224 pp. pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html Despite all... [its]... advantages, the traditional global mean TOA radiative forcing concept has some important limitations, which have come increasingly to light over the past decade. The concept is inadequate for some forcing agents, such as absorbing aerosols and land-use changes, that may have regional climate impacts much greater than would be predicted from TOA radiative forcing. Also, it diagnoses only one measure of climate change - global mean surface temperature response - while offering little information on regional climate change or precipitation. from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11175&page=4 The 2005 National Research Council report concluded that: "regional variations in radiative forcing may have important regional and global climate implications that are not resolved by the concept of global mean radiative forcing.“ And furthermore: "Regional diabatic heating can cause atmospheric teleconnections that influence regional climate thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing." This regional diabatic heating produces temperature increases or decreases in the layer-averaged regional troposphere. This necessarily alters the regional pressure fields and thus the wind pattern. This pressure and wind pattern then affects the pressure and wind patterns at large distances from the region of the forcing which we refer to as teleconnections. Some Examples REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER U.S. U.S. Geological Geological Survey Survey land-cover land-cover classes classes for for pre-1900’s pre-1900’s natural natural conditions conditions (left) (left) and and 1993 1993 land-use land-use patterns patterns (right). (right). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Rhttp://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R272.pdf 272.pdf From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28 28 52. 52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Associated Associated convective convective rainfall rainfall (mm) (mm) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of July-August July-August 1973 1973 with with pre-1900s pre-1900s land land cover cover (top), (top), 1993 1993 land land use use (middle), (middle), and and the the difference difference field field for for the the two two (bottom; (bottom; 1993 1993 minus minus pre-1900s pre-1900s case). case). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Same Same as as previous previous figure figure except except for for July July and and August, August, 1989. 1989. From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Max and Min Temp Trends Two-month Two-month average average of of the the daily daily maximum maximum shelter-level shelter-level temperature temperature (°C) (°C) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of Jul-Aug Jul-Aug 1989 1989 with with (top) (top) natural natural land land cover, cover, (middle) (middle) current current land land cover. cover. From From Marshall Marshall et et al. al. 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Regional Land-Use Change Effects On Climate In The Eastern United States in June Albedo: Albedo: 1650, 1650, 1850, 1850, 1920, 1920, 1992 1992 Historical Historical Patterns Patterns of of Broadband Broadband Solar Solar Albedo: Albedo: (a) (a) 1650 1650 (b) (b) 1850 1850 (c) (c) 1920 1920 (d) (d) 1992 1992 Source: Source: Steyaert, Steyaert, L. L. T., T., and and R. R. G. G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Reconstructed Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters historical land cover and biophysical parameters for for studies studies of of landlandatmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Geophys. Res., Res., J. J. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res.,, 113, 113, D02101, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. Surface Roughness Length: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Surface Roughness Length (cm): (a) (a) 1650 1650 (b) (b) 1850 1850 (c) (c) 1920 1920 (d) (d) 1992 1992 Source: Source: Steyaert, Steyaert, L. L. T., T., and and R. R. G. G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Reconstructed Reconstructed historical historical land land cover cover and and biophysical biophysical parameters parameters for for studies studies of of land-atmosphere land-atmosphere interactions interactions within within the the eastern eastern United United States, States, J. J. Geophys. Geophys. Res., Res., J. J. , 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. Geophys. Res. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. a.) a.) Maximum Maximum temperature temperature (ºC) (ºC) with with 1992 1992 land land cover. cover. Dashed Dashed box shows area of region box shows area of region 11 and and solid solid box box shows shows area area of of region region 2. 2. Difference Difference in in maximum maximum temperature temperature between between 1992 1992 and and b.) b.) 1650, 1650, c.) c.) 1850, 1850, d.) d.) 1920. 1920. From From Strack, J.E., R.A. Pielke Strack, J.E., R.A. Pielke Sr, Sr, L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and R.G. R.G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Sensitivity Sensitivity of of June June nearnearsurface surface temperatures temperatures and and precipitation precipitation in in the the eastern eastern United States to historical United States to historical land land cover changes since European cover changes since European settlement. settlement. Water Water Resources Resources Research, Research, 44, 44, W11401, W11401, doi:10.1029/2007WR00654. doi:10.1029/2007WR00654. http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf From: From: Adegoke, Adegoke, J.O., J.O., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., and and A.M. A.M. Carleton, Carleton, 2007: 2007: Observational Observational and and modeling modeling studies studies of of the the impacts impacts of of agriculture-related agriculture-related land land use use change change on on climate climate in in the the central central U.S. U.S. Agric. Agric. Forest Forest Meteor., Meteor., Special Special Issue, Issue, 132, 132, 203-215. 203-215. http://www.climatesci.org/pu http://www.climatesci.org/pu blications/pdf/R-295.pdf blications/pdf/R-295.pdf The Spatial Pattern of Radiative Heating From the Human Input Of Aerosols into the Atmosphere Figure Figure 1. 1. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol direct direct radiative radiative forcing forcing (ADRF) (ADRF) for for top-of top-of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), (TOA), surface, surface, and and atmosphere. atmosphere. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL doi:10.1029/2006GL 025974. 025974. http://climatesci.col http://climatesci.col orado.edu/publicati orado.edu/publicati ons/pdf/R-312.pdf ons/pdf/R-312.pdf raditive forcing (W/m2) mean TOA radiative forcing 2 1 1.7 -1.59 -1.38 GRF ADRF AIRF 0 -1 -2 Figure 4. Comparison of Mean TOA radiative forcing between infrared GRF, shortwave ADRF, and shortwave AIRF. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurementbased estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf NGoRF NGoRF surface surface 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 00 00 55 ADRF(zone) ADRF(zone) ADRF(meri) ADRF(meri) NGoRF NGoRF 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 00 00 55 Figure Figure 5. 5. Comparison Comparison of of the the meridional meridional and and the the zonal zonal component component of of NGoRF NGoRF between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, 10 15 20 10 15 20 and and shortwave shortwave AIRF AIRF for for distance distance (degree) (degree) atmosphere atmosphere and and surface. surface. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and AIRF(zone) GRF(zone) AIRF(zone) GRF(zone) R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: AIRF(meri) GRF(meri) AIRF(meri) GRF(meri) Measurement-based Measurement-based atmosphere atmosphere estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025 doi:10.1029/2006GL025 10 15 20 10 15 20 974. 974. http://climatesci.colora http://climatesci.colora do.edu/publications/pdf do.edu/publications/pdf /R-312.pdf /R-312.pdf These other forcings, such as land-use change and from atmospheric pollution aerosols, may have a greater effect on our climate than the effects that have been claimed for CO2 In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found from observations of the spatial distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower latitudes, that the aerosol effect on atmospheric circulations, as a result of their alteration in the heating of regions of the atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to the heating effect of the human addition of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf The Regional Alteration in Tropospheric Diabatic Heating has a Greater Influence on the Climate System than a Change in the Globally-Averaged Surface and Tropospheric Temperatures Comments By Others From From Foley, Foley, J., J., 2007: 2007: Planet Planet against against the the grain. grain. Presented Presented at at the the NASA NASA Land-Cover Land-Cover and and Land-Use Land-Use Change Change Science Science Team Team Meeting, Meeting, UMUC UMUC Inn Inn and and Conference Conference Center, Center, Adelphi, Adelphi, MD, MD, April April 4 4 -- 6, 6, 2007. 2007. From From Foley, Foley, J., J., 2007: 2007: Planet Planet against against the the grain. grain. Presented Presented at at the the NASA NASA Land-Cover Land-Cover and and Land-Use Land-Use Change Change Science Science Team Team Meeting, Meeting, UMUC UMUC Inn Inn and and Conference Conference Center, Center, Adelphi, Adelphi, MD, MD, April April 4 4 -- 6, 6, 2007. 2007. From From Foley, Foley, J., J., 2007: 2007: Planet Planet against against the the grain. grain. Presented Presented at at the the NASA NASA Land-Cover Land-Cover and and Land-Use Land-Use Change Change Science Science Team Team Meeting, Meeting, UMUC UMUC Inn Inn and and Conference Conference Center, Center, Adelphi, Adelphi, MD, MD, April April 4 4 -- 6, 6, 2007. 2007. From From Foley, Foley, J., J., 2007: 2007: Planet Planet against against the the grain. grain. Presented Presented at at the the NASA NASA Land-Cover Land-Cover and and Land-Use Land-Use Change Change Science Science Team Team Meeting, Meeting, UMUC UMUC Inn Inn and and Conference Conference Center, Center, Adelphi, Adelphi, MD, MD, April April 4 4 -- 6, 6, 2007. 2007. From From Foley, Foley, J., J., 2007: 2007: Planet Planet against against the the grain. grain. Presented Presented at at the the NASA NASA Land-Cover Land-Cover and and Land-Use Land-Use Change Change Science Science Team Team Meeting, Meeting, UMUC UMUC Inn Inn and and Conference Conference Center, Center, Adelphi, Adelphi, MD, MD, April April 4 4 -- 6, 6, 2007. 2007. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008. "Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported." We Need A New Approach The Vulnerability Perspective To Move Forward We Need A Bottom-Up Resource Based Focus, Rather Than Relying On Downscaling From Global Climate Models From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., 2008: 2008: Global Global climate climate models models -- Many Many contributing contributing influences. influences. Citizen's Citizen's Guide Guide to to Colorado Colorado Climate Climate Change, Change, Colorado Colorado Climate Climate Foundation Foundation for for Water Water Education, Education, pp. pp. 28-29. 28-29. http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf From: From: Bravo Bravo de de Guenni, Guenni, L., L., R.E. R.E. Schulze, Schulze, R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., and and M.F. M.F. Hutchinson, Hutchinson, 2004: 2004: The The vulnerability vulnerability approach. approach. Chapter Chapter E.5 E.5 In: In: Vegetation, Vegetation, Water, Water, Humans Humans and and the the Climate: Climate: A A New New Perspective Perspective on on an an Interactive Interactive System. System. Global Global Change Change -- The The IGBP IGBP Series, Series, P. P. Kabat Kabat et et al., al., Eds., Eds., Springer, Springer, 499-514. 499-514. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-40.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-40.pdf From: From: Pielke, Pielke, R.A. R.A. Sr., Sr., and and L. L. Bravo Bravo de de Guenni, Guenni, 2004: 2004: Conclusions. Conclusions. Chapter Chapter E.7 E.7 In: In: Vegetation, Vegetation, Water, Water, Humans Humans and and the the Climate: Climate: A A New New Perspective Perspective on on an an Interactive Interactive System. System. Global Global Change Change -- The The IGBP IGBP Series, Series, P. P. Kabat Kabat et et al., al., Eds., Eds., Springer, Springer, 537-538. 537-538. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-42.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-42.pdf Recommendations 1. 1. The The climate climate science science community community should should be be polled polled with with respect respect to to which which of of the the following following three three hypotheses hypotheses have have been been rejected: rejected: i. i. The The human human influence influence is is minimal minimal and and natural natural variations variations dominate climate variations on all time scales; dominate climate variations on all time scales; ii. ii. While While natural natural variations variations are are important, important, the the human human influence influence is is significant significant and and involves involves aa diverse diverse range range of of first-order first-order climate climate forcings, forcings, including, including, but but not not limited limited to to the the human human input input of of CO2; CO2; iii. iii. The The human human influence influence is is dominated dominated by by the the emissions emissions into into the the atmosphere atmosphere of of greenhouse greenhouse gases, gases, particularly particularly carbon carbon dioxide. dioxide. 2. 2. National National and and International International climate climate assessments assessments should should be be written written by by climate climate scientists scientists without without significant significant conflicts conflicts of of interest. interest. 3. 3. The The focus focus on on reducing reducing threats threats from from climate, climate, and and other other environmental, environmental, variability variability and and change change should should be be resource-based, resource-based, and with a local and regional vulnerability perspective and with a local and regional vulnerability perspective to to start start with with (i.e. (i.e. aa "bottom-up "bottom-up assessment). assessment). Policy Policy actions actions which which optimize optimize the the entire entire spectrum spectrum of of benefits benefits for for society society and and the the environment should be the goal. environment should be the goal. So what is my suggestion? There is no doubt in my mind that there are multiple types of human climate forcings. CO22 is important and we need to look at it, but there is a range of other forcings. Policymakers should look for win-win policies in order to improve the environment that we live in. The costs and benefits of the regulation of the emissions of CO22 into the atmosphere need to be evaluated together with all other possible environmental regulations. The goal should be to seek politically and technologically practical ways to reduce the vulnerability of the environment and society to the entire spectrum of human-caused and natural risks. Background Photograph Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites http://climatesci.colorado.edu/ http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/ PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by Dallas Jean Staley Research Assistant and Webmaster University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 [email protected]