Download A Realty Check on Global Warming

A Realty Check on Global
Warming
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
Senior Research Scientist
University of Colorado, Boulder
Professor Emeritus, Colorado State University
Presented to the Air & Waste Management Association
August 6, 2008
Denver, CO
What Does The Data Tell Us?
Vertical
Vertical relative
relative weighting
weighting functions
functions for
for
each
each of
of the
the channels
channels discussed
discussed on
on this
this
website.
website. The
The vertical
vertical weighting
weighting function
function
describes
describes the
the relative
relative contribution
contribution that
that
microwave
microwave radiation
radiation emitted
emitted by
by aa layer
layer
in
in the
the atmosphere
atmosphere makes
makes to
to the
the total
total
intensity
intensity measured
measured above
above the
the
atmosphere
atmosphere by
by the
the satellite.
satellite.
The
The weighting
weighting functions
functions are
are available
available at
at
ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions
ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions
From:
From:
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_d
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_d
escription.html
escription.html
Global, monthly time series of
brightness temperature
anomaly for channels TLT,
TMT, TTS, and TLS (from top
to bottom). For Channel TLT
(Lower Troposphere) and
Channel TMT (Middle
Troposphere), the anomaly
time series is dominated by
ENSO events and slow
tropospheric warming. The
three primary El Niños
during the past 20 years are
clearly evident as peaks in
the time series occurring
during 1982-83, 1987-88, and
1997-98, with the most
recent one being the largest.
Channel TLS (Lower
Stratosphere) is dominated
by stratospheric cooling,
punctuated by dramatic
warming events caused by
the eruptions of El Chichon
(1982) and Mt Pinatubo
(1991). Channel TTS
(Troposphere / Stratosphere)
appears to be a mixture of
both effects. From:
http://www.remss.com/msu/
msu_data_description.html
TLT
TMT
TTS
TLS
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region
=nhland&ui_month=6
=nhland&ui_month=6
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.28.2008.gif
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg
The Data Presents A Complex
Variation In Time That Is Not
Accurately Simulated By The
Global Models
The IPCC View
2007 IPCC SPM View
FIGURE SPM-2. Global-average radiative
forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for
anthropogenic
carbon
dioxide
(CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and
other important agents and mechanisms,
together with the typical geographical extent
(spatial scale) of the forcing and the assessed
level of scientific understanding (LOSU). The
net anthropogenic radiative forcing and its
range are also shown. These require summing
asymmetric uncertainty estimates from the
component terms, and cannot be obtained by
simple addition. Additional forcing factors not
included here are considered to have a very
low LOSU. Volcanic aerosols contribute an
additional natural forcing but are not
included in this figure due to their episodic
nature. Range for linear contrails does not
include other possible effects of aviation on
cloudiness.
National Research Council, 2005:
Radiative Forcing of Climate Change:
Expanding the Concept and
Addressing Uncertainties, Committee
on Radiative Forcing Effects on
Climate, Climate Research Committee,
224 pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate
Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee
on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224
pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate
Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties,
Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research
Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
EXPANDING THE RADIATIVE
FORCING CONCEPT
(NRC 2005 Recommendations)
ÆAccount for the Vertical Structure of
Radiative Forcing
ÆDetermine the Importance of Regional
Variation in Radiative Forcing
ÆDetermine the Importance of Nonradiative
Forcings
ÆProvide Improved Guidance to the Policy
Community
Determine the Importance of
Regional Variation in
Radiative Forcing
National Research Council Report
PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS
Use climate records to investigate
relationships between regional radiative
forcing (e.g., land use or aerosol changes)
and climate response in the same region,
other regions, and globally.
Determine the Importance of
Regional Variation in
Radiative Forcing
National Research Council Report
PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS
Quantify and compare climate responses from
regional radiative forcings in different
climate models and on different timescales
(e.g., seasonal, interannual), and report
results in climate change assessments.
Determine the Importance of
Nonradiative Forcings
National Research Council Report
PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS
Improve understanding and parameterizations of
aerosol-cloud thermodynamic interactions and
land-atmosphere interactions in climate models
in order to quantify the impacts of these
nonradiative forcings on both regional and
global scales.
Determine the Importance of
Nonradiative Forcings
National Research Council Report
PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS
Develop improved land-use and land-cover
classifications at high resolution for the past
and present, as well as scenarios for the
future.
Provide Improved Guidance to
the Policy Community
National Research Council Report
PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS
Encourage policy analysts and integrated
assessment modelers to move beyond simple
climate models based entirely on global mean
TOA radiative forcing and incorporate new
global and regional radiative and nonradiative
forcing metrics as they become available.
The Assessment of The Global
Radiative Imbalance From
Changes In Ocean Heat Content
Global
Radiative
Imbalance
From
From Lyman,
Lyman, J.M.,
J.M., J.
J. Willis,
Willis, and
and G.
G. Johnson,
Johnson, 2006:
2006: Recent
Recent cooling
cooling of
of the
the upper
upper
ocean.
ocean. Geophys
Geophys Res.
Res. Lett.,
Lett., 33,
33, L18604,
L18604, doi:10.1029/2006GL027033.
doi:10.1029/2006GL027033. Correction
Correction
completed
completed April
April 2007
2007 which
which eliminates
eliminates cooling
cooling but
but finds
finds no
no warming
warming in
in recent
recent
years.
years.
Global
Radiative
Forcing
2007 IPCC Total
Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing =
=
1.72 (0.66 to 2.7)
Watts per meter
squared
Best Estimate of
Total Radiative
Imbalance
(1993-2005) =
0.33 (0.10
to 0.56) Watts
per meter
squared
If the
the IPCC
IPCC
Forcing is
accepted as the
current
current forcing,
forcing,
than the
the net
net
global
global radiative
feedbacks
feedbacks are
are
negative!
Definition Of The Global Average
Radiative Temperature
“According to the radiative-convective equilibrium concept, the
equation for determining global average surface temperature of
the planet is
dH/dt = f - T’/λ (1)
where H……is the heat content of the land-ocean-atmosphere
system…..Equation (1) describes the change in the heat
content where f is the radiative forcing at the tropopause, T′ is
the change in surface temperature in response to a change in
heat content, and λ is the climate feedback parameter
[Schneider and Dickinson, 1974], also known as the climate
sensitivity parameter, which denotes the rate at which the
climate system returns the added forcing to space as infrared
radiation or as reflected solar radiation (by changes in clouds,
ice and snow, etc.).”
Poor Microclimate Exposure At Many
Climate Observing Sites
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/
Davey, C.A., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2005: Microclimate exposures of surface-based
weather stations - implications for the assessment of long-term temperature
trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 86, No. 4, 497–504.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf
Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the
sensor (from Hanamean et al. 2003)
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/
As shown in Pielke et al. [2004], the heat
content of surface air is given by
H = C pT + Lq
where H is the heat in Joules, Cpp is the heat
capacity of air at constant pressure, T is the
air temperature, L is the latent heat of
vaporization and q is the specific humidity.
This equation can be rewritten as
H
LVq
=TE =T +
Cp
Cp
Pielke,
Pielke, R.A.
R.A. Sr.,
Sr., K.
K. Wolter,
Wolter, O.
O. Bliss,
Bliss, N.
N. Doesken,
Doesken, and
and B.
B. McNoldy,
McNoldy, 2006:
2006: The
The July
July 2005
2005
Denver
heat
wave:
How
unusual
was
it?
Nat.
Wea.
Dig.,
31,
24-35.
Denver heat wave: How unusual was it? Nat. Wea. Dig., 31, 24-35.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf
Documentation Of A Significant
Warm Bias In Long-Term Trends
of Minimum Temperatures
From: Pielke Sr., R.A., and T. Matsui, 2005: Should light wind and windy
nights have the same temperature trends at individual levels even if the
boundary layer averaged heat content change is the same? Geophys. Res.
Letts., 32, No. 21, L21813, 10.1029/2005GL024407.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-302.pdf
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., and
and T.
T. Matsui,
Matsui, 2005:
2005: Should
Should light
light wind
wind and
and windy
windy
nights
nights have
have the
the same
same temperature
temperature trends
trends at
at individual
individual levels
levels even
even if
if the
the
boundary
boundary layer
layer averaged
averaged heat
heat content
content change
change is
is the
the same?
same? Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res.
Letts.,
Letts., 32,
32, No.
No. 21,
21, L21813,
L21813, 10.1029/2005GL024407.
10.1029/2005GL024407.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-302.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-302.pdf
A conservative estimate of the warm bias
resulting from measuring the temperature near
the ground is around 0.21°C per decade (with the
nighttime minimum temperature contributing a
large part of this bias). Since land covers about
29% of the Earth's surface, the warm bias due to
this influence explains about 30% of the IPCC
estimate of global warming. In other words,
consideration of the bias in temperature would
reduce the IPCC trend to about 0.14°C per
decade; still a warming, but not as large as
indicated
by
the
IPCC.
[From
[From http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf].
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf].
Human Climate Forcings
Ignored or Underreported in
the 2007 IPCC Report
¾ Land Use/Land Cover Change
¾ Nitrogen Deposition
¾ Black Carbon Deposition
¾ Dust Deposition
¾ Biogeochemical Effect of Added CO2
¾ Methane Outgassing
¾ Ozone Effects On Vegetation
Several Examples Follow
Regional Land-Use Change
Effects On Climate In The
Eastern United States in June
Albedo: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992
Historical
Patterns of
Broadband Solar
Albedo:
(a) 1650
(b) 1850
(c) 1920
(d) 1992
Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical
land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere
interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113,
D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277
Surface Roughness Length:
1650, 1850, 1920, 1992
Historical
Patterns of
Surface
Roughness
Length (cm):
(a)
(a) 1650
1650
(b)
(b) 1850
1850
(c)
(c) 1920
1920
(d)
(d) 1992
1992
Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical
land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere
interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113,
D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277
a.)
a.) Maximum
Maximum temperature
temperature (ºC)
(ºC) with
with 1992
1992 land
land cover.
cover. Dashed
Dashed box
box shows
shows area
area of
of region
region 11 and
and solid
solid box
box
shows
shows area
area of
of region
region 2.
2. Difference
Difference in
in maximum
maximum temperature
temperature between
between 1992
1992 and
and b.)
b.) 1650,
1650, c.)
c.) 1850,
1850, d.)
d.)
1920.
From
Strack
et
al.
2008:
Sensitivity
of
Summer
Near-Surface
Temperatures
and
Precipitation
1920. From Strack et al. 2008: Sensitivity of Summer Near-Surface Temperatures and Precipitation in
in the
the
Eastern
United
States
to
Historical
Land
Cover
Changes
Since
European
Settlement,
Water
Resources
Eastern United States to Historical Land Cover Changes Since European Settlement, Water Resources
Research,
Research, submitted.
submitted. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf
REGIONAL LAND-USE
CHANGE EFFECTS ON
CLIMATE IN FLORIDA
IN THE SUMMER
U.S.
U.S. Geological
Geological Survey
Survey land-cover
land-cover classes
classes for
for pre-1900’s
pre-1900’s natural
natural conditions
conditions (left)
(left) and
and
1993
1993 land-use
land-use patterns
patterns (right).
(right). From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert,
and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida
peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of
anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season
sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28
28 52.
52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Associated
Associated convective
convective rainfall
rainfall (mm)
(mm) from
from the
the model
model simulations
simulations of
of July-August
July-August 1973
1973
with
with pre-1900s
pre-1900s land
land cover
cover (top),
(top), 1993
1993 land
land use
use (middle),
(middle), and
and the
the difference
difference field
field for
for the
the
two
two (bottom;
(bottom; 1993
1993 minus
minus pre-1900s
pre-1900s case).
case). From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T.
Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the
Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132,
28-52.
28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Same
Same as
as previous
previous figure
figure except
except for
for July
July and
and August,
August, 1989.
1989. From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A.
Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic landlandcover
cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather.
Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Max and Min
Temp Trends
Two-month
Two-month average
average of
of the
the daily
daily maximum
maximum shelter-level
shelter-level temperature
temperature (°C)
(°C) from
from the
the model
model
simulations
simulations of
of Jul-Aug
Jul-Aug 1989
1989 with
with (top)
(top) natural
natural land
land cover,
cover, (middle)
(middle) current
current land
land cover.
cover. From
From
Marshall
Marshall et
et al.
al. 2004:
2004: The
The impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula
sea
sea breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
Examples
Examples of
of land-use
land-use change
change
from
from (a)
(a) 1700,
1700, (b)
(b) 1900,
1900, (c)
(c)
1970,
1970, and
and (d)
(d) 1990.
1990. The
The
human-disturbed
human-disturbed landscape
landscape
includes
includes intensive
intensive cropland
cropland
(red)
(red) and
and marginal
marginal cropland
cropland
used
used for
for grazing
grazing (pink).
(pink). Other
Other
landscape
landscape includes
includes tropical
tropical
evergreen
evergreen forest
forest and
and
deciduous
deciduous forest
forest (dark
(dark
green),
green), savannah
savannah (light
(light
green),
green), grassland
grassland and
and steppe
steppe
(yellow),
(yellow), open
open shrubland
shrubland
(maroon),
(maroon), temperate
temperate
deciduous
deciduous forest
forest (blue),
(blue),
temperate
temperate needleleaf
needleleaf
evergreen
evergreen forest
forest (light
(light
yellow)
yellow) and
and hot
hot desert
desert
(orange).
(orange). Note
Note the
the expansion
expansion
of
of cropland
cropland and
and grazed
grazed land
land
between
between 1700
1700 and
and 1900.
1900.
(Reproduced
(Reproduced with
with permission
permission
from
from Klein
Klein Goldewijk
Goldewijk 2001.)
2001.)
DJF
DJF temperature
temperature differences
differences due
due to
to land-cover
land-cover change
change in
in each
each of
of the
the scenarios.
scenarios. Values
Values were
were
calculated
calculated by
by subtracting
subtracting the
the greenhouse
greenhouse gas–only
gas–only forcing
forcing scenarios
scenarios from
from aa simulation
simulation
including
including land-cover
land-cover and
and greenhouse
greenhouse gas
gas forcings.
forcings. Feddema
Feddema et
et al.
al. 2005:
2005: The
The importance
importance of
of
land-cover
land-cover change
change in
in simulating
simulating future
future climates,
climates, Science
Science 310,
310, 1674-1678.
1674-1678.
Why Should Landscape
Effects, Which Cover Only a
Fraction of the Earth’s
Surface, Have Global
Circulation Effects?
“HOT TOWERS”
“As shown in the pioneering study by Riehl and
Malkus (1958) and by Riehl and Simpson (1979),
1500-5000 thunderstorms (which they refer to as
‘hot towers’) are the conduit to transport this
heat, moisture, and wind energy to higher
latitudes. Since thunderstorms occur only in a
relatively small percentage of the area of the
tropics, a change in their spatial patterns would
be expected to have global consequences.”
From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of
vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall.
Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Most
Most thunderstorms
thunderstorms (about
(about 10
10 to
to 1)
1) occur
occur over
over land.
land.
From:
From: http://thunder.nsstc.nasa.gov/images/HRFC_AnnualFlashRate_cap.jpg
http://thunder.nsstc.nasa.gov/images/HRFC_AnnualFlashRate_cap.jpg
Global Climate Effects occur with
ENSOs for the Following Reasons:
1.
2.
3.
Large Magnitude
Long Persistence
Spatial Coherence
Wu,
Wu, Z.
Z. -- X.,
X., and
and Newell,
Newell, R.
R. E.
E. 1998
1998 Influence
Influence of
of sea
sea surface
surface temperature
temperature of
of air
air
temperature
temperature in
in the
the tropic.
tropic. Climate
Climate Dynamics
Dynamics 14,
14, 275-290.
275-290.
We Should, Therefore Expect
Global Climate Effects With
Landscape Changes!
The Regional Alteration in
Tropospheric Diabatic Heating
has a Greater Influence on the
Climate System than a Change
in the Globally-Averaged
Surface and Tropospheric
Temperatures
WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF
MORE HETEROGENEOUS
CLIMATE FORCINGS RELATIVE
TO MORE HOMOGENEOUS
CLIMATE FORCING
SUCH AS THE RADIATIVE
FORCING OF CO2?
AN EXAMPLE FOR
AEROSOL CLIMATE
FORCING
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Shortwave
Shortwave aerosol
aerosol direct
direct radiative
radiative forcing
forcing (ADRF)
(ADRF) for
for top-of
top-of atmosphere
atmosphere (TOA),
(TOA),
surface,
surface, and
and atmosphere.
atmosphere. From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based
estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
Figure
Figure 2.
2. Vertical
Vertical profile
profile of
of atmospheric
atmospheric heating
heating rate
rate (K
(K day
day-1-1)) due
due to
to shortwave
shortwave ADRF.
ADRF.
Vertical
Vertical coordinate
coordinate is
is pressure
pressure level
level (mb).
(mb). From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
Figure
Figure 3.
3. Shortwave
Shortwave aerosol
aerosol indirect
indirect radiative
radiative forcing
forcing (AIRF)
(AIRF) for
for top-of
top-of atmosphere
atmosphere (TOA),
(TOA),
surface,
surface, and
and atmosphere.
atmosphere. From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: MeasurementMeasurementbased
based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res.
Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
raditive forcing
(W/m2)
mean TOA radiative forcing
2
1
0
-1
1.7
-1.59
-1.38
GRF
ADRF
AIRF
-2
Figure
Figure 4.
4. Comparison
Comparison of
of Mean
Mean TOA
TOA radiative
radiative forcing
forcing between
between infrared
infrared GRF,
GRF, shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF,
and
and shortwave
shortwave AIRF.
AIRF. From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based
estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33,
L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
NGoRF
surface
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
5
NGoRF
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(meri)
10
15
distance (degree)
AIRF(zone)
AIRF(meri)
20
GRF(zone)
GRF(meri)
atmosphere
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
5
10
15
20
Figure
Figure 5.
5. Comparison
Comparison of
of the
the meridional
meridional and
and the
the zonal
zonal component
component of
of NGoRF
NGoRF between
between
infrared
infrared GRF,
GRF, shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF, and
and shortwave
shortwave AIRF
AIRF for
for atmosphere
atmosphere and
and surface.
surface. From:
From:
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient
of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
WE NEED A NEW
PERSPECTIVE ON THE ROLE OF
ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY
AND CHANGE ON SOCIETY
AND THE ENVIRONMENT
A FOCUS ON
VULNERABILITY
Schematic
Schematic of
of the
the relation
relation of
of water
water resource
resource vulnerability
vulnerability to
to the
the spectrum
spectrum of
of the
the
environmental
environmental forcings
forcings and
and feedbacks
feedbacks (adapted
(adapted from
from [3]).
[3]). The
The arrows
arrows denote
denote nonlinear
nonlinear
interactions
interactions between
between and
and within
within natural
natural and
and human
human forcings.
forcings. From:
From: Pielke,
Pielke, R.A.
R.A. Sr.,
Sr., 2004:
2004:
Discussion
Discussion Forum:
Forum: A
A broader
broader perspective
perspective on
on climate
climate change
change is
is needed.
needed. IGBP
IGBP Newsletter,
Newsletter, 59,
59,
16-19.
16-19. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
From: Bravo de Guenni, L., R.E. Schulze, R.A. Pielke Sr., and M.F. Hutchinson,
2004: The vulnerability approach. Chapter E.5 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans
and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change
- The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 499-514.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-40.pdf
Time
Time series
series plot
plot of
of 25-year
25-year running
running mean
mean of
of reconstructed
reconstructed flows
flows of
of the
the Colorado
Colorado River
River at
at Lee
Lee Ferry
Ferry ..
Flows
Flows are
are plotted
plotted as
as percentage
percentage of
of the
the 1906–2004
1906–2004 mean
mean of
of observed
observed natural
natural flows
flows (18.53
(18.53 billion
billion cubic
cubic
meters,
meters, or
or 15.03
15.03 million
million acre-ft).
acre-ft). Confidence
Confidence interval
interval derived
derived from
from 0.10
0.10 and
and 0.90
0.90 probability
probability points
points of
of
ensemble
ensemble of
of 1000
1000 noise-added
noise-added reconstructions.
reconstructions. Horizontal
Horizontal dashed
dashed line
line is
is lowest25-year
lowest25-year running
running
mean
of
observed
flows
(1953–1977).
From
Meko,
D.,
C.
A.
Woodhouse,
C.
A.
Baisan,
T.
Knight,
mean of observed flows (1953–1977). From Meko, D., C. A. Woodhouse, C. A. Baisan, T. Knight, J.
J. J.
J.
Lukas,
M.
K.
Hughes,
and
M.
W.
Salzer
(2007),
Medieval
drought
in
the
upper
Colorado
River
Basin,
Lukas, M. K. Hughes, and M. W. Salzer (2007), Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin,
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Lett.,
Lett., 34,
34, L10705,
L10705, doi:10.1029/2007GL029988.
doi:10.1029/2007GL029988.
From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., and L. Bravo de Guenni, 2004: Conclusions. Chapter E.7
In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an
Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds.,
Springer, 537-538. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-42.pdf
CONCLUSIONS
¾ Human Caused Global Warming is a Subset of Human
Caused Climate Change (The Term Global Warming
≠ The Term Climate Change)
¾ Significant Climate Change Can Occur Without a
Change in the Global Average Surface Temperature
¾ Carbon is an Incomplete Metric to Characterize the
Human Role within the Climate System – the IPCC
Approach is Actually on Energy Policy Not on an
Inclusive Assessment for Effective Climate Policy
¾ The Use of an Annual Global Average Temperature
Change (e.g., +2C) Provides No Value In Characterizing
Regional Climate Change
Roger A. Pielke Sr. Weblog
http://climatesci.org
Roger A. Pielke Sr. Website
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke
PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by
Dallas Jean Staley
Research Assistant and Webmaster
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado 80309
[email protected]
Background Photograph Courtesy
of Mike Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm