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A Realty Check on Global Warming Roger A. Pielke Sr. Senior Research Scientist University of Colorado, Boulder Professor Emeritus, Colorado State University Presented to the Air & Waste Management Association August 6, 2008 Denver, CO What Does The Data Tell Us? Vertical Vertical relative relative weighting weighting functions functions for for each each of of the the channels channels discussed discussed on on this this website. website. The The vertical vertical weighting weighting function function describes describes the the relative relative contribution contribution that that microwave microwave radiation radiation emitted emitted by by aa layer layer in in the the atmosphere atmosphere makes makes to to the the total total intensity intensity measured measured above above the the atmosphere atmosphere by by the the satellite. satellite. The The weighting weighting functions functions are are available available at at ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions From: From: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_d http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_d escription.html escription.html Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS (from top to bottom). For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposphere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. From: http://www.remss.com/msu/ msu_data_description.html TLT TMT TTS TLS http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region =nhland&ui_month=6 =nhland&ui_month=6 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.28.2008.gif http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg The Data Presents A Complex Variation In Time That Is Not Accurately Simulated By The Global Models The IPCC View 2007 IPCC SPM View FIGURE SPM-2. Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other important agents and mechanisms, together with the typical geographical extent (spatial scale) of the forcing and the assessed level of scientific understanding (LOSU). The net anthropogenic radiative forcing and its range are also shown. These require summing asymmetric uncertainty estimates from the component terms, and cannot be obtained by simple addition. Additional forcing factors not included here are considered to have a very low LOSU. Volcanic aerosols contribute an additional natural forcing but are not included in this figure due to their episodic nature. Range for linear contrails does not include other possible effects of aviation on cloudiness. National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html EXPANDING THE RADIATIVE FORCING CONCEPT (NRC 2005 Recommendations) ÆAccount for the Vertical Structure of Radiative Forcing ÆDetermine the Importance of Regional Variation in Radiative Forcing ÆDetermine the Importance of Nonradiative Forcings ÆProvide Improved Guidance to the Policy Community Determine the Importance of Regional Variation in Radiative Forcing National Research Council Report PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS Use climate records to investigate relationships between regional radiative forcing (e.g., land use or aerosol changes) and climate response in the same region, other regions, and globally. Determine the Importance of Regional Variation in Radiative Forcing National Research Council Report PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS Quantify and compare climate responses from regional radiative forcings in different climate models and on different timescales (e.g., seasonal, interannual), and report results in climate change assessments. Determine the Importance of Nonradiative Forcings National Research Council Report PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS Improve understanding and parameterizations of aerosol-cloud thermodynamic interactions and land-atmosphere interactions in climate models in order to quantify the impacts of these nonradiative forcings on both regional and global scales. Determine the Importance of Nonradiative Forcings National Research Council Report PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS Develop improved land-use and land-cover classifications at high resolution for the past and present, as well as scenarios for the future. Provide Improved Guidance to the Policy Community National Research Council Report PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS Encourage policy analysts and integrated assessment modelers to move beyond simple climate models based entirely on global mean TOA radiative forcing and incorporate new global and regional radiative and nonradiative forcing metrics as they become available. The Assessment of The Global Radiative Imbalance From Changes In Ocean Heat Content Global Radiative Imbalance From From Lyman, Lyman, J.M., J.M., J. J. Willis, Willis, and and G. G. Johnson, Johnson, 2006: 2006: Recent Recent cooling cooling of of the the upper upper ocean. ocean. Geophys Geophys Res. Res. Lett., Lett., 33, 33, L18604, L18604, doi:10.1029/2006GL027033. doi:10.1029/2006GL027033. Correction Correction completed completed April April 2007 2007 which which eliminates eliminates cooling cooling but but finds finds no no warming warming in in recent recent years. years. Global Radiative Forcing 2007 IPCC Total Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing = = 1.72 (0.66 to 2.7) Watts per meter squared Best Estimate of Total Radiative Imbalance (1993-2005) = 0.33 (0.10 to 0.56) Watts per meter squared If the the IPCC IPCC Forcing is accepted as the current current forcing, forcing, than the the net net global global radiative feedbacks feedbacks are are negative! Definition Of The Global Average Radiative Temperature “According to the radiative-convective equilibrium concept, the equation for determining global average surface temperature of the planet is dH/dt = f - T’/λ (1) where H……is the heat content of the land-ocean-atmosphere system…..Equation (1) describes the change in the heat content where f is the radiative forcing at the tropopause, T′ is the change in surface temperature in response to a change in heat content, and λ is the climate feedback parameter [Schneider and Dickinson, 1974], also known as the climate sensitivity parameter, which denotes the rate at which the climate system returns the added forcing to space as infrared radiation or as reflected solar radiation (by changes in clouds, ice and snow, etc.).” Poor Microclimate Exposure At Many Climate Observing Sites http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ Davey, C.A., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2005: Microclimate exposures of surface-based weather stations - implications for the assessment of long-term temperature trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 86, No. 4, 497–504. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the sensor (from Hanamean et al. 2003) http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/ As shown in Pielke et al. [2004], the heat content of surface air is given by H = C pT + Lq where H is the heat in Joules, Cpp is the heat capacity of air at constant pressure, T is the air temperature, L is the latent heat of vaporization and q is the specific humidity. This equation can be rewritten as H LVq =TE =T + Cp Cp Pielke, Pielke, R.A. R.A. Sr., Sr., K. K. Wolter, Wolter, O. O. Bliss, Bliss, N. N. Doesken, Doesken, and and B. B. McNoldy, McNoldy, 2006: 2006: The The July July 2005 2005 Denver heat wave: How unusual was it? Nat. Wea. Dig., 31, 24-35. Denver heat wave: How unusual was it? Nat. Wea. Dig., 31, 24-35. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf Documentation Of A Significant Warm Bias In Long-Term Trends of Minimum Temperatures From: Pielke Sr., R.A., and T. Matsui, 2005: Should light wind and windy nights have the same temperature trends at individual levels even if the boundary layer averaged heat content change is the same? Geophys. Res. Letts., 32, No. 21, L21813, 10.1029/2005GL024407. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-302.pdf From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., and and T. T. Matsui, Matsui, 2005: 2005: Should Should light light wind wind and and windy windy nights nights have have the the same same temperature temperature trends trends at at individual individual levels levels even even if if the the boundary boundary layer layer averaged averaged heat heat content content change change is is the the same? same? Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 32, 32, No. No. 21, 21, L21813, L21813, 10.1029/2005GL024407. 10.1029/2005GL024407. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-302.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-302.pdf A conservative estimate of the warm bias resulting from measuring the temperature near the ground is around 0.21°C per decade (with the nighttime minimum temperature contributing a large part of this bias). Since land covers about 29% of the Earth's surface, the warm bias due to this influence explains about 30% of the IPCC estimate of global warming. In other words, consideration of the bias in temperature would reduce the IPCC trend to about 0.14°C per decade; still a warming, but not as large as indicated by the IPCC. [From [From http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf]. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Testimony-written.pdf]. Human Climate Forcings Ignored or Underreported in the 2007 IPCC Report ¾ Land Use/Land Cover Change ¾ Nitrogen Deposition ¾ Black Carbon Deposition ¾ Dust Deposition ¾ Biogeochemical Effect of Added CO2 ¾ Methane Outgassing ¾ Ozone Effects On Vegetation Several Examples Follow Regional Land-Use Change Effects On Climate In The Eastern United States in June Albedo: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Broadband Solar Albedo: (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277 Surface Roughness Length: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Surface Roughness Length (cm): (a) (a) 1650 1650 (b) (b) 1850 1850 (c) (c) 1920 1920 (d) (d) 1992 1992 Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277 a.) a.) Maximum Maximum temperature temperature (ºC) (ºC) with with 1992 1992 land land cover. cover. Dashed Dashed box box shows shows area area of of region region 11 and and solid solid box box shows shows area area of of region region 2. 2. Difference Difference in in maximum maximum temperature temperature between between 1992 1992 and and b.) b.) 1650, 1650, c.) c.) 1850, 1850, d.) d.) 1920. From Strack et al. 2008: Sensitivity of Summer Near-Surface Temperatures and Precipitation 1920. From Strack et al. 2008: Sensitivity of Summer Near-Surface Temperatures and Precipitation in in the the Eastern United States to Historical Land Cover Changes Since European Settlement, Water Resources Eastern United States to Historical Land Cover Changes Since European Settlement, Water Resources Research, Research, submitted. submitted. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER U.S. U.S. Geological Geological Survey Survey land-cover land-cover classes classes for for pre-1900’s pre-1900’s natural natural conditions conditions (left) (left) and and 1993 1993 land-use land-use patterns patterns (right). (right). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28 28 52. 52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Associated Associated convective convective rainfall rainfall (mm) (mm) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of July-August July-August 1973 1973 with with pre-1900s pre-1900s land land cover cover (top), (top), 1993 1993 land land use use (middle), (middle), and and the the difference difference field field for for the the two two (bottom; (bottom; 1993 1993 minus minus pre-1900s pre-1900s case). case). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Same Same as as previous previous figure figure except except for for July July and and August, August, 1989. 1989. From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic landlandcover cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Max and Min Temp Trends Two-month Two-month average average of of the the daily daily maximum maximum shelter-level shelter-level temperature temperature (°C) (°C) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of Jul-Aug Jul-Aug 1989 1989 with with (top) (top) natural natural land land cover, cover, (middle) (middle) current current land land cover. cover. From From Marshall Marshall et et al. al. 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Examples Examples of of land-use land-use change change from from (a) (a) 1700, 1700, (b) (b) 1900, 1900, (c) (c) 1970, 1970, and and (d) (d) 1990. 1990. The The human-disturbed human-disturbed landscape landscape includes includes intensive intensive cropland cropland (red) (red) and and marginal marginal cropland cropland used used for for grazing grazing (pink). (pink). Other Other landscape landscape includes includes tropical tropical evergreen evergreen forest forest and and deciduous deciduous forest forest (dark (dark green), green), savannah savannah (light (light green), green), grassland grassland and and steppe steppe (yellow), (yellow), open open shrubland shrubland (maroon), (maroon), temperate temperate deciduous deciduous forest forest (blue), (blue), temperate temperate needleleaf needleleaf evergreen evergreen forest forest (light (light yellow) yellow) and and hot hot desert desert (orange). (orange). Note Note the the expansion expansion of of cropland cropland and and grazed grazed land land between between 1700 1700 and and 1900. 1900. (Reproduced (Reproduced with with permission permission from from Klein Klein Goldewijk Goldewijk 2001.) 2001.) DJF DJF temperature temperature differences differences due due to to land-cover land-cover change change in in each each of of the the scenarios. scenarios. Values Values were were calculated calculated by by subtracting subtracting the the greenhouse greenhouse gas–only gas–only forcing forcing scenarios scenarios from from aa simulation simulation including including land-cover land-cover and and greenhouse greenhouse gas gas forcings. forcings. Feddema Feddema et et al. al. 2005: 2005: The The importance importance of of land-cover land-cover change change in in simulating simulating future future climates, climates, Science Science 310, 310, 1674-1678. 1674-1678. Why Should Landscape Effects, Which Cover Only a Fraction of the Earth’s Surface, Have Global Circulation Effects? “HOT TOWERS” “As shown in the pioneering study by Riehl and Malkus (1958) and by Riehl and Simpson (1979), 1500-5000 thunderstorms (which they refer to as ‘hot towers’) are the conduit to transport this heat, moisture, and wind energy to higher latitudes. Since thunderstorms occur only in a relatively small percentage of the area of the tropics, a change in their spatial patterns would be expected to have global consequences.” From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Most Most thunderstorms thunderstorms (about (about 10 10 to to 1) 1) occur occur over over land. land. From: From: http://thunder.nsstc.nasa.gov/images/HRFC_AnnualFlashRate_cap.jpg http://thunder.nsstc.nasa.gov/images/HRFC_AnnualFlashRate_cap.jpg Global Climate Effects occur with ENSOs for the Following Reasons: 1. 2. 3. Large Magnitude Long Persistence Spatial Coherence Wu, Wu, Z. Z. -- X., X., and and Newell, Newell, R. R. E. E. 1998 1998 Influence Influence of of sea sea surface surface temperature temperature of of air air temperature temperature in in the the tropic. tropic. Climate Climate Dynamics Dynamics 14, 14, 275-290. 275-290. We Should, Therefore Expect Global Climate Effects With Landscape Changes! The Regional Alteration in Tropospheric Diabatic Heating has a Greater Influence on the Climate System than a Change in the Globally-Averaged Surface and Tropospheric Temperatures WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF MORE HETEROGENEOUS CLIMATE FORCINGS RELATIVE TO MORE HOMOGENEOUS CLIMATE FORCING SUCH AS THE RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2? AN EXAMPLE FOR AEROSOL CLIMATE FORCING Figure Figure 1. 1. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol direct direct radiative radiative forcing forcing (ADRF) (ADRF) for for top-of top-of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), (TOA), surface, surface, and and atmosphere. atmosphere. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf Figure Figure 2. 2. Vertical Vertical profile profile of of atmospheric atmospheric heating heating rate rate (K (K day day-1-1)) due due to to shortwave shortwave ADRF. ADRF. Vertical Vertical coordinate coordinate is is pressure pressure level level (mb). (mb). From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf Figure Figure 3. 3. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol indirect indirect radiative radiative forcing forcing (AIRF) (AIRF) for for top-of top-of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), (TOA), surface, surface, and and atmosphere. atmosphere. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: MeasurementMeasurementbased based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf raditive forcing (W/m2) mean TOA radiative forcing 2 1 0 -1 1.7 -1.59 -1.38 GRF ADRF AIRF -2 Figure Figure 4. 4. Comparison Comparison of of Mean Mean TOA TOA radiative radiative forcing forcing between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, and and shortwave shortwave AIRF. AIRF. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf NGoRF surface 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 NGoRF ADRF(zone) ADRF(meri) 10 15 distance (degree) AIRF(zone) AIRF(meri) 20 GRF(zone) GRF(meri) atmosphere 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 10 15 20 Figure Figure 5. 5. Comparison Comparison of of the the meridional meridional and and the the zonal zonal component component of of NGoRF NGoRF between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, and and shortwave shortwave AIRF AIRF for for atmosphere atmosphere and and surface. surface. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf WE NEED A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON THE ROLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON SOCIETY AND THE ENVIRONMENT A FOCUS ON VULNERABILITY Schematic Schematic of of the the relation relation of of water water resource resource vulnerability vulnerability to to the the spectrum spectrum of of the the environmental environmental forcings forcings and and feedbacks feedbacks (adapted (adapted from from [3]). [3]). The The arrows arrows denote denote nonlinear nonlinear interactions interactions between between and and within within natural natural and and human human forcings. forcings. From: From: Pielke, Pielke, R.A. R.A. Sr., Sr., 2004: 2004: Discussion Discussion Forum: Forum: A A broader broader perspective perspective on on climate climate change change is is needed. needed. IGBP IGBP Newsletter, Newsletter, 59, 59, 16-19. 16-19. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf From: Bravo de Guenni, L., R.E. Schulze, R.A. Pielke Sr., and M.F. Hutchinson, 2004: The vulnerability approach. Chapter E.5 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 499-514. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-40.pdf Time Time series series plot plot of of 25-year 25-year running running mean mean of of reconstructed reconstructed flows flows of of the the Colorado Colorado River River at at Lee Lee Ferry Ferry .. Flows Flows are are plotted plotted as as percentage percentage of of the the 1906–2004 1906–2004 mean mean of of observed observed natural natural flows flows (18.53 (18.53 billion billion cubic cubic meters, meters, or or 15.03 15.03 million million acre-ft). acre-ft). Confidence Confidence interval interval derived derived from from 0.10 0.10 and and 0.90 0.90 probability probability points points of of ensemble ensemble of of 1000 1000 noise-added noise-added reconstructions. reconstructions. Horizontal Horizontal dashed dashed line line is is lowest25-year lowest25-year running running mean of observed flows (1953–1977). From Meko, D., C. A. Woodhouse, C. A. Baisan, T. Knight, mean of observed flows (1953–1977). From Meko, D., C. A. Woodhouse, C. A. Baisan, T. Knight, J. J. J. J. Lukas, M. K. Hughes, and M. W. Salzer (2007), Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin, Lukas, M. K. Hughes, and M. W. Salzer (2007), Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin, Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Lett., Lett., 34, 34, L10705, L10705, doi:10.1029/2007GL029988. doi:10.1029/2007GL029988. From: Pielke, R.A. Sr., and L. Bravo de Guenni, 2004: Conclusions. Chapter E.7 In: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System. Global Change - The IGBP Series, P. Kabat et al., Eds., Springer, 537-538. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/CB-42.pdf CONCLUSIONS ¾ Human Caused Global Warming is a Subset of Human Caused Climate Change (The Term Global Warming ≠ The Term Climate Change) ¾ Significant Climate Change Can Occur Without a Change in the Global Average Surface Temperature ¾ Carbon is an Incomplete Metric to Characterize the Human Role within the Climate System – the IPCC Approach is Actually on Energy Policy Not on an Inclusive Assessment for Effective Climate Policy ¾ The Use of an Annual Global Average Temperature Change (e.g., +2C) Provides No Value In Characterizing Regional Climate Change Roger A. Pielke Sr. Weblog http://climatesci.org Roger A. Pielke Sr. Website http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by Dallas Jean Staley Research Assistant and Webmaster University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 [email protected] Background Photograph Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm