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Concerns On The IPCC Report: The Actual State Of Climate Science Roger A. Pielke Sr. University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO Conference with Respect to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 15) Copenhagen, Denmark 6 December 2009 Human-Caused Climate Change Has Become One Of The Highest Political Priorities in the United States and Worldwide “Climate change is a clear and present danger to our world that demands immediate attention. Facts on the ground are outstripping worse-case scenario models that were developed only a few years ago.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/ http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/27/us.global.warming/ My Conclusion I agree that there is no question that human activity is resulting in an increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide [CO2] Science Organizations Remind Senators of the Consensus on Climate Change” “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. http://www.agu.org/journals/eo/eo0944/2009EO440008.pdf#anchor Hypothesis #1 • The human influence on climate variability and change is of minimal importance, and natural causes dominate climate variations and changes on all time scales. In coming decades, the human influence will continue to be minimal Hypothesis #2 • Although the natural causes of climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and are dominated by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the most important of which is carbon dioxide. The impact of these gases on regional and global climate constitutes the primary climate issue for the coming decades Hypothesis #3 • Although the natural causes of climate variation and changes are undoubtedly important, human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not dominated by the human input of CO22. Most, if not all, of these human influences on regional and global climate will continue to be of concern during the coming decades. Only ONE of these hypotheses can be correct Important Findings • Climate Variability and Change Are Much More Than Global Warming or Cooling • Even with Global Warming only about 25-30% (my analysis), 40% (Shindell et al. 2009) or 58% (the IPCC view) is from CO22 [http://www.climatesci.org/publications/presentations/PPT-69.pdf] [http://www.climatesci.org/publications/presentations/PPT-69.pdf] • Humans Produce Both Global Warming and Global Cooling Forcings National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html From: From: National National Research Research Council, Council, 2005: 2005: Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Expanding Expanding the the Concept Concept and and Addressing Addressing Uncertainties, Uncertainties, Committee Committee on on Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing Effects Effects on on Climate, Climate, Climate Climate Research Research Committee, Committee, 224 224 pp. pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html Examples Of Important Non- Greenhouse Gas Climate Forcings REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER U.S. U.S. Geological Geological Survey Survey land-cover land-cover classes classes for for pre-1900’s pre-1900’s natural natural conditions conditions (left) (left) and and 1993 1993 land-use land-use patterns patterns (right). (right). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf Max and Min Temp Trends From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28 28 52. 52. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf Associated Associated convective convective rainfall rainfall (mm) (mm) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of July-August July-August 1973 1973 with with pre-1900s pre-1900s land land cover cover (top), (top), 1993 1993 land land use use (middle), (middle), and and the the difference difference field field for for the the two two (bottom; (bottom; 1993 1993 minus minus pre-1900s pre-1900s case). case). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf Same Same as as previous previous figure figure except except for for July July and and August, August, 1989. 1989. From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf Two-month Two-month average average of of the the daily daily maximum maximum shelter-level shelter-level temperature temperature (°C) (°C) from from the the model model simulations simulations of of Jul-Aug Jul-Aug 1989 1989 with with (top) (top) natural natural land land cover, cover, (middle) (middle) current current land land cover. cover. From From Marshall Marshall et et al. al. 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-272.pdf Conclusion: Most locations in south and central Florida are drier and warmer today than they would be under the same large-scale weather patterns prior to the 20th century due just to landscape change. This Effect Of Landscape Change Is A Global Climate Change Issue Albedo: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Broadband Solar Albedo: (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Source: Steyaert, Steyaert, L. L. T., T., and and R. R. G. G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Reconstructed Reconstructed historical historical land land cover cover and and biophysical biophysical parameters parameters for for studies studies of of landlandatmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Geophys. Res., Res., J. J. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res.,, 113, 113, D02101, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. Surface Roughness Length: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Surface Roughness Length (cm): (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Source: Steyaert, Steyaert, L. L. T., T., and and R. R. G. G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Reconstructed Reconstructed historical historical land land cover cover and and biophysical biophysical parameters parameters for for studies studies of of land-atmosphere land-atmosphere interactions interactions within within the the eastern eastern United United States, States, J. J. Geophys. Geophys. Res., Res., J. J. , 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. Geophys. Res. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277. a.) a.) Maximum Maximum temperature temperature (ºC) (ºC) with with 1992 1992 land land cover. cover. Dashed Dashed box box shows shows area area of of region region 1 1 and and solid solid box box shows shows area area of of region region 2. 2. Difference Difference in in maximum maximum temperature temperature between between 1992 1992 and and b.) b.) 1650, 1650, c.) c.) 1850, 1850, d.) d.) 1920. 1920. From From Strack, Strack, J.E., J.E., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr, Sr, L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and R.G. R.G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Sensitivity Sensitivity of of June June nearnearsurface surface temperatures temperatures and and precipitation precipitation in in the the eastern eastern United United States States to to historical historical land land cover cover changes changes since since European European settlement. settlement. Water Water Resources Resources Research, Research, 44, 44, W11401, W11401, doi:10.1029/ doi:10.1029/ 2007WR00654. 2007WR00654. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-330.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-330.pdf Conclusion: The eastern 2/3 of the USA has undergone major climate change as a result of landscape conversion From: Adegoke, J.O., R.A. Pielke Sr., and A.M. Carleton, 2007: Observational and and modeling modeling studies of the impacts of agriculture-related land use change on climate in the central U.S. Agric. Forest Meteor., Special Issue, 132, 203-215. http://pielkeclimatesci.wor dpress.com/files/2009/10/ r-295.pdf Figure Figure 1. 1. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol direct direct radiative radiative forcing forcing (ADRF) (ADRF) for for toptopof of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), (TOA), surface, surface, and and atmosphere. atmosphere. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL02 doi:10.1029/2006GL02 5974. 5974. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf NGoRF NGoRF surface surface 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 00 00 55 ADRF(zone) ADRF(zone) ADRF(meri) ADRF(meri) NGoRF NGoRF 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 00 00 55 Figure Figure 5. 5. Comparison Comparison of of the the meridional meridional and and the the zonal zonal component component of of NGoRF NGoRF between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, and and 10 15 20 shortwave AIRF AIRF for for 10 15 20 shortwave distance atmosphere distance (degree) (degree) atmosphere and and surface. surface. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: AIRF(zone) GRF(zone) AIRF(zone) GRF(zone) Measurement-based Measurement-based AIRF(meri) GRF(meri) AIRF(meri) GRF(meri) estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial atmosphere atmosphere gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL0259 doi:10.1029/2006GL0259 74. 74. 10 10 15 15 20 20 http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found from observations of the spatial distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower latitudes, that the aerosol effect on atmospheric circulations, as a result of their alteration in the heating of regions of the atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to the heating effect of the human addition of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-312.pdf Extensive peer-reviewed research has shown that the focus on just carbon dioxide as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow. Hypothesis #1 and #2 are refuted Natural variations are important, and also, the human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of firstorder climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of greenhouse gases including CO2 These other forcings, such as land-use change and from atmospheric pollution aerosols, may have a greater effect on our climate than the effects that have been claimed for CO2 The acceptance of CO2 as a pollutant by the EPA , yet it is a climate forcing not a traditional atmospheric pollutant, opens up a wide range of other climate forcings which the EPA could similarly regulate (e.g., land use, water vapor). What Does The Other Climate Data Tell Us? 1) There is no regional predictive skill by the multi-decadal global models decades into the future; 2) Even the global average climate metrics, such as global warming, are not being accurately predicted by these models Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008. "Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported." The Real World Data Examples Figure Figure 2. 2. Vertical Vertical relative relative weighting weighting functions functions for for each each of of the the channels channels discussed discussed on on this this website. website. The The vertical vertical weighting weighting function function describes describes the the relative relative contribution contribution that that microwave microwave radiation radiation emitted emitted by by aa layer layer in in the the atmosphere atmosphere makes makes to to the the total total intensity intensity measured measured above above the the atmosphere atmosphere by by the the satellite. satellite. The The weighting weighting functions functions are are available available on on the the FTP FTP site site at at ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions From: From: http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html TLT TLT From: From: http://www.ssmi.co http://www.ssmi.co m/msu/msu_data_ m/msu/msu_data_ description.html description.html TMT TMT TTS TTS TLS TLS http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.11.30.2009.gif http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.11.30.2009.gif Figure Figure 1: 1: Four-year Four-year rate rate of of the the global global upper upper 700 700 m m of of ocean ocean heat heat changes changes in in Joules Joules at at monthly monthly time time intervals. intervals. One One standard standard error error value value is is also also shown. shown. (Figure (Figure courtesy courtesy of of Josh Josh Willis Willis of of NASA’s NASA’s Jet Jet Propulsion Propulsion Laboratory). Laboratory). What do the locations where the surface temperature data is collected look like? Fort Fort Morgan Morgan site site showing showing images images of of the the cardinal cardinal directions directions from from the the sensor sensor (from (from Hanamean Hanamean et et al. al. 2003) 2003) http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/ http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/ Santa Santa Ana, Ana, Orange Orange County County CA CA site site situated situated on on the the rooftop rooftop of of the the local local fire fire department. department. See See related related article article and and photos photos at: at: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ and and http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-thehttp://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-theheat-in-oc/ heat-in-oc/ Photo Photo taken taken at at Roseburg, Roseburg, OR OR (MMTS (MMTS shelter shelter on on roof, roof, near near a/c a/c exhaust) exhaust) http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg Buffalo Buffalo Bill Bill Dam, Dam, Cody Cody WY WY shelter shelter on on top top of of aa stone stone wall wall at at the the edge edge of of the the river. river. It It is is surrounded surrounded by by stone stone building building heat heat sinks sinks except except on on the the river river side. side. On On the the river river it it is is exposed exposed to to waters waters of of varying varying temperatures, temperatures, cold cold in in spring spring and and winter, winter, warm warm in in summer summer and and fall fall as as the the river river flows flows vary vary with with the the season. season. The The level level of of spray spray also also varies, varies, depending depending on on river river flow. flow. http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measurehttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measuretemperature-part-67/ temperature-part-67/ Lampasas, Lampasas, TX, TX, February February 10, 10, 2008 2008 http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296 http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296 Conclusion: There is a significant amount of real world data that conflicts with the findings in the 2007 IPCC report Why Has Hypothesis #3 Not Received Attention? A main reason for the failure to accurately communicate climate science to the policymakers is a result of the real conflict of interest among the leadership of the climate community. The IPCC and CCSP assessments, as well as the science statements completed by the AGU, AMS, and NRC, are completed by a small subset of climate scientists who are led by the same individuals. They are evaluating the robustness of their own research. One Example of a Conflict of Interest Tom Karl, Director of the National Climatic Data Center Conflict of Interest in the CCSP Report “Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences ” Complete report - Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, 2006. A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC. Science Assessments Should Not Be Completed By Scientists Who Are Assessing Their Own Research How Do We Move Forward? POLICYMAKERS SHOULD LOOK FOR WINWIN POLICIES IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN The costs and benefits of the regulation of the emissions of CO22 into the atmosphere need to be evaluated together with all other possible environmental regulations. The goal should be to seek politically and technologically practical ways to reduce the vulnerability of the environment and society to the entire spectrum of human-caused and natural risks. From: Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: Global climate models - Many contributing influences. Citizen's Guide to Colorado Climate Change, Colorado Climate Foundation for Water Education, pp. 28-29. http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf To Move Forward We Need A Bottom-Up Resource Based Focus, Rather Than Relying On Downscaling From Global Climate Models RECOMMENDATIONS ¾ National and International climate assessments should be written by climate scientists without significant conflicts of interest. ¾ The focus on reducing threats from climate, and other environmental, variability and change should be resource-based, and with a local and regional vulnerability perspective to start with (i.e., a "bottom-up assessment). Policy actions which optimize the entire spectrum of benefits for society and the environment should be the goal. Roger Pielke Sr. Research Websites http://climatesci.colorado.edu/ http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/ Background Photograph Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by Dallas Jean Staley Research Assistant and Webmaster University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 [email protected]