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An Overview On the Complexity of the Climate System and the Role of Humans Within It Roger A. Pielke Sr. University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO Lecture Presented to University of Colorado Class ATOC4800/5000 "Policy Implications of Climate Controversies/Critical Issues in Climate and the Environment", Boulder February 5, 2009 Three Climate Change Hypotheses – Only One Of Which Can Be True The climate issue, with respect to how humans are influencing the climate system, can be segmented into three distinct hypotheses. These are: 1. The human influence is minimal and natural variations dominate climate variations on all time scales; 2. While natural variations are important, the human influence is significant and involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings (including, but not limited to the human input of CO22); 3. The human influence is dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. What Does The Data Tell Us? Vertical Vertical relative relative weighting weighting functions functions for for each each of of the the channels channels discussed discussed on on this this website. website. The The vertical vertical weighting weighting function function describes describes the the relative relative contribution contribution that that microwave microwave radiation radiation emitted emitted by by aa layer layer in in the the atmosphere atmosphere makes makes to to the the total total intensity intensity measured measured above above the the atmosphere atmosphere by by the the satellite. satellite. The The weighting weighting functions functions are are available available at at ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions ftp.ssmi.com/msu/weighting_functions From: From: http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_ http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_ description.html description.html Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS (from top to bottom). For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 198283, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposphere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. From: http://www.remss.com/msu/m su_data_description.html TLT TMT TTS TLS http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12 http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.1.19.2009.gif http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_ns_global.jpg http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/fig2b.gif Figure 1: Four-year rate of the global upper 700 m of ocean heat changes in Joules at monthly time intervals. One standard error value is also shown. (Figure courtesy of Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory). The Data Presents A Complex Variation In Time That Is Not Accurately Simulated By The Global Models Poor Microclimate Exposure At Many Climate Observing Sites http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ Davey, C.A., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2005: Microclimate exposures of surface-based weather stations - implications for the assessment of long-term temperature trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 86, No. 4, 497–504. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the sensor (from Hanamean et al. 2003) http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/ Santa Ana, Orange County CA site situated on the rooftop of the local fire department. See related article and photos at: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ and http://sciencedude.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/urbanization-raises-the-heat-in-oc/ Photo taken taken at at Roseburg, Roseburg, OR OR (MMTS (MMTS shelter on roof, near a/c exhaust) http://www.surfacestations.org/images/Roseburg_OR_USHCN.jpg Buffalo Buffalo Bill Bill Dam, Dam, Cody Cody WY WY shelter shelter on on top top of of aa stone stone wall wall at at the the edge edge of of the the river. river. ItIt is is surrounded surrounded by by stone stone building building heat heat sinks sinks except except on on the the river river side. side. On On the the river river itit is is exposed exposed to to waters waters of of varying varying temperatures, temperatures, cold cold in in spring spring and and winter, winter, warm warm in in summer summer and and fall fall as as the the river river flows flows vary vary with with the the season. season. The The level level of of spray spray also also varies, varies, depending depending on on river river flow. flow. http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-67/ http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/15/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-67/ Lampasas, TX, February 10, 2008 2008 http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296 http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=34296 Climate Climate Reference Reference Network Network Rating Rating Guide: Guide: Class Class 11 Flat Flat and and horizontal horizontal ground ground surrounded surrounded by by aa clear clear surface surface with with aa slope slope below below 1/3 1/3 (<19deg). (<19deg). Grass/low Grass/low vegetation vegetation ground ground cover cover <10 <10 centimeters centimeters high. high. Sensors Sensors located located at at least least 100 100 meters meters from from artificial artificial heating heating or or reflecting reflecting surfaces, surfaces, such such as as buildings, buildings, concrete concrete surfaces, surfaces, and and parking parking lots. lots. Far Far from from large bodies of water, except if it is representative of the area, and then located at least 100 meters large bodies of water, except if it is representative of the area, and then located at least 100 meters away. away. No shading when the sun elevation >3 degrees. No shading when the sun elevation >3 degrees. Class Class 22 Same Same as as Class Class 11 with with the the following following differences. differences. Surrounding Surrounding Vegetation Vegetation <25 <25 centimeters. centimeters. No No artificial artificial heating heating sources sources within within 30m. 30m. No No shading shading for for aa sun sun elevation elevation >5deg. >5deg. Class Class 33 (error (error 1C) 1C) -- Same Same as as Class Class 2, 2, except except no no artificial artificial heating heating sources sources within within 10 10 meters. meters. Class 4 (error >= 2C) Artificial heating sources <10 meters. Class 4 (error >= 2C) - Artificial heating sources <10 meters. Class Class 55 (error (error >= >= 5C) 5C) -- Temperature Temperature sensor sensor located located next next to/above to/above an an artificial artificial heating heating source, source, such such aa building, building, roof roof top, top, parking parking lot, lot, or or concrete concrete surface." surface." Surveyed CRN Site Quality Rating CRN=4 57% CRN=1 CRN=5 12% CRN=2 CRN=3 CRN=1 3% CRN=2 9% 724 stations rated as of 12/21/2008 CRN=3 19% CRN=4 CRN=5 National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html Global Radiative Forcing From: From: National National Research Research Council, Council, 2005: 2005: Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Expanding Expanding the the Concept Concept and and Addressing Addressing Uncertainties, Uncertainties, Committee Committee on on Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing Effects Effects on on Climate, Climate, Climate Climate Research Research Committee, Committee, 224 224 pp. pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html Despite all... [its]... advantages, the traditional global mean TOA radiative forcing concept has some important limitations, which have come increasingly to light over the past decade. The concept is inadequate for some forcing agents, such as absorbing aerosols and land-use changes, that may have regional climate impacts much greater than would be predicted from TOA radiative forcing. Also, it diagnoses only one measure of climate change - global mean surface temperature response - while offering little information on regional climate change or precipitation. from http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11175&page=4 Global Climate Effects Occur with ENSOs for the Following Reasons: 1. Large Magnitude 2. Long Persistence 3. Spatial Coherence Wu, Z. - X., and Newell, R. E. 1998 Influence of sea surface temperature of air temperature in the tropic. Climate Dynamics 14, 275-290. The 2005 National Research Council report concluded that: "regional variations in radiative forcing may have important regional and global climate implications that are not resolved by the concept of global mean radiative forcing.“ And furthermore: "Regional diabatic heating can cause atmospheric teleconnections that influence regional climate thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing." This regional diabatic heating produces temperature increases or decreases in the layer-averaged regional troposphere. This necessarily alters the regional pressure fields and thus the wind pattern. This pressure and wind pattern then affects the pressure and wind patterns at large distances from the region of the forcing which we refer to as teleconnections. WE SHOULD, THEREFORE EXPECT GLOBAL CLIMATE EFFECTS FROM ANY HUMAN AND NATURAL CLIMATE FORCING THAT HAS THE SAME THREE CHARACTERISTICS THE REGIONAL ALTERATION IN TROPOSPHERIC DIABATIC HEATING HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE CLIMATE SYSTEM THAN A CHANGE IN THE GLOBALLY-AVERAGED SURFACE AND TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF MORE HETEROGENEOUS CLIMATE FORCINGS RELATIVE TO MORE HOMOGENEOUS CLIMATE FORCING SUCH AS THE RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2? REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN JUNE Albedo: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Broadband Solar Albedo: (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Steyaert, L. T., and R. G. Knox, 2008: Reconstructed historical land cover and biophysical parameters for studies of land-atmosphere interactions within the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277 Surface Roughness Length: 1650, 1850, 1920, 1992 Historical Patterns of Surface Roughness Length (cm): (a) 1650 (b) 1850 (c) 1920 (d) 1992 Source: Source: Steyaert, Steyaert, L. L. T., T., and and R. R. G. G. Knox, Knox, 2008: 2008: Reconstructed Reconstructed historical historical land land cover cover and and biophysical biophysical parameters parameters for for studies studies of of land-atmosphere land-atmosphere interactions interactions within within the the eastern eastern United United States, States, J. J. Geophys. Geophys. Res., Res., 113, 113, D02101, D02101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008277 doi:10.1029/2006JD008277 a.) a.) Maximum Maximum temperature temperature (ºC) (ºC) with with 1992 1992 land land cover. cover. Dashed Dashed box box shows shows area area of of region region 11 and and solid solid box box shows shows area area of of region region 2. 2. Difference Difference in in maximum maximum temperature temperature between between 1992 1992 and and b.) b.) 1650, 1650, c.) c.) 1850, 1850, d.) d.) 1920. 1920. From From Strack Strack et et al. al. 2008: 2008: Sensitivity Sensitivity of of Summer Summer NearNearSurface Surface Temperatures Temperatures and and Precipitation Precipitation in in the the Eastern Eastern United United States States to to Historical Historical Land Land Cover Cover Changes Changes Since Since European European Settlement, Settlement, Water Water Resources Resources Research, Research, submitted. submitted. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-330.pdf REGIONAL LAND-USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON CLIMATE IN FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER U.S. U.S. Geological Geological Survey Survey land-cover land-cover classes classes for for pre-1900’s pre-1900’s natural natural conditions conditions (left) (left) and and 1993 1993 land-use land-use patterns patterns (right). (right). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28 28 52. 52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Associated convective rainfall (mm) from the model simulations of July-August 1973 with pre-1900s land cover (top), 1993 land use (middle), and the difference field for the two (bottom; 1993 minus pre-1900s case). From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Same as previous figure except for July and August, 1989. From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Max and Min Temp Trends Two-month average of the daily maximum shelter-level temperature (°C) from the model simulations of Jul-Aug 1989 with (top) natural land cover, (middle) current land cover. From Marshall et al. 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf Examples of land-use change from (a) 1700, (b) 1900, (c) 1970, and (d) 1990. The human-disturbed landscape includes intensive cropland (red) and marginal cropland used for grazing (pink). Other landscape includes tropical evergreen forest and deciduous forest (dark green), savannah (light green), grassland and steppe (yellow), open shrubland (maroon), temperate deciduous forest (blue), temperate needleleaf evergreen forest (light yellow) and hot desert (orange). Note the expansion of cropland and grazed land between 1700 and 1900. (Reproduced with permission from Klein Goldewijk 2001.) DJF temperature differences due to land-cover change in each of the scenarios. Values were calculated by subtracting the greenhouse gas–only forcing scenarios from a simulation including land-cover and greenhouse gas forcings. Feddema et al. 2005: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science 310, 1674-1678. AN EXAMPLE FOR AEROSOL CLIMATE FORCING Figure 1. Shortwave aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) for top-of atmosphere (TOA), surface, and atmosphere. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf Figure 2. Vertical profile of atmospheric heating rate (K day-1) due to shortwave ADRF. Vertical coordinate is pressure level (mb). From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf raditive forcing (W/m2) mean TOA radiative forcing 2 1 1.7 -1.59 -1.38 GRF ADRF AIRF 0 -1 -2 Figure 4. Comparison of Mean TOA radiative forcing between infrared GRF, shortwave ADRF, and shortwave AIRF. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf NGoRF surface 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 NGoRF ADRF(zone) ADRF(meri) 10 15 distance (degree) AIRF(zone) AIRF(meri) 20 GRF(zone) GRF(meri) atmosphere 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 10 15 20 Figure 5. Comparison of the meridional and the zonal component of NGoRF between infrared GRF, shortwave ADRF, and shortwave AIRF for atmosphere and surface. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf In Matsui and Pielke Sr. (2006), it was found from observations of the spatial distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere in the lower latitudes, that the aerosol effect on atmospheric circulations, as a result of their alteration in the heating of regions of the atmosphere, is 60 times greater than due to the heating effect of the human addition of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf "Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported." Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008. From: Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: Global climate models - Many contributing influences. Citizen's Guide to Colorado Climate Change, Colorado Climate Foundation for Water Education, pp. 28-29. http://www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/NR-148.pdf In Conclusion The role of humans within the climate system must, therefore, be one of the following three possibilities: 1. The human influence is minimal and natural variations dominate climate variations on all time scales; 2. While natural variations are important, the human influence is significant and involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2; 3. The human influence is dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. To Move Forward We Need A Bottom-Up Resource Based Focus, Rather Than Relying On Downscaling From Global Climate Models FINALLY There is a clear conflict of interest in the preparation of the IPCC and CCSP reports. The lead authors are individuals who are assessing their own research. There need to be new Committees convened which can provide a more objective assessment of climate, including the human role within it. Unless this is done, we are doomed to a continued repetition of the same information, which is misleading the public and policymakers with respect to what policy actions should be taken with respect to climate. Roger A. Pielke Sr. Weblog http://climatesci.org Roger A. Pielke Sr. Website http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by Dallas Jean Staley Research Assistant and Webmaster University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado 80309 [email protected] Background Photograph Courtesy of Mike Hollingshead http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm