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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Preparing for the Future Jonathan Capstick RESTRICTED Adaptation • Crystal Balls • Evidence - Projections & CCRA • Action Now • Action in the Future RESTRICTED 2 Looking to the Future: misconceptions Predictions Come True Technology Solves One Future First World Comes First Space 1999: living on the Moon RESTRICTED 3 But we know about some key risks Unavoidable climate change Risks of not cutting emissions Population Increases Peak Oil RESTRICTED 4 Protect & Survive “The danger posed by climate change cannot be denied Future generations will look back and wonder why we refused to act Global warning: Sydney dust storm just the beginning Why we failed to pass on an environment that was worthy of our inheritance.” President Obama RESTRICTED 5 Adaptation vs mitigation – the balance Adaptation and Mitigation. We cannot have one without the other. We filled the cup – we need to deal with the consequences This is a key principle of Stern RESTRICTED What is adaptation? Adaptation is any adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Understanding Current climate Extent of Climate Change The climate and weather variables interact Assessing Action Vulnerability Impact Consequence Costs and Benefits Protect Retreat Live with Resilience RESTRICTED 7 Adaptation • Crystal Balls • Evidence - Projections & CCRA • Action Now • Action in the Future RESTRICTED 8 Evidence: Projections www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Copenhagen UK’s 80% goal Prepare for the impacts Ancient glaciers are disappearing faster than ever (24th Sept) Protect Seize opportunities Common Goals RESTRICTED 9 Probability Strategic Planning: Risks and Opportunities VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Some climate variable RESTRICTED 10 Emissions Pathways www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% GHG Increase GtCO2e Where we are now RESTRICTED 11 Range of Futures www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 6 5 4 3 Global Average Temperatures IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low Where we are heading Temp 2 Rise 1 degC 0 2000 RESTRICTED 2020 2040 2060 2080 210012 What are they based on? www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 6 Global Average Temperatures 5 4 3 Temp 2 Rise 1 degC Some change is certain 0 2000 Where we need to be RESTRICTED 2020 2040 2060 2080 210013 2080s – A Possible Future Significant Changes Our houses, infrastructure and natural environment are not adapted Changes to how we use land, water International effects RESTRICTED 14 Summer average temperature www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 2 to 3ºC increase 3 to 4ºC increase Unlikely to be less than 2.00C or greater than 6.40C for SE 2080s 2020s +1.6ºC 2040s +2.3ºC 2080s 4 to 5ºC increase +3.9ºC But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up RESTRICTED to 10ºC higher South-East England central estimate Medium emissions 15 Summer Temperatures in context www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures 2060s 2040s We are already committed to this from past emissions alone 2003 Source Met Office Hadley Centre 35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential RESTRICTED 16 Summer rainfall www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 2020s 10% to 20% decrease 20 to 30% decrease 30% to 40% decrease -7% 2040s -13% 2080s -23% Unlikely to be less than -49% or greater RESTRICTED than +6% for SW, 2080s South West central estimate Medium emissions 17 Winter rainfall www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 0% to 10% decrease 2020s +6% 10% to 20% increase Unlikely to be less than +3% or greater 2040s +10% than +35% for NW, 2080s 20% to 30% increase 2080s +16% But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North RESTRICTED North West central estimate Medium Emissions 18 Sea level rise www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Central Estimate Possible Outcome 2040 High++ scenario: 2100 Rises up to 1.9 m + 18cm 2080 + 36 cm RESTRICTED 19 Adaptation • Crystal Balls • Evidence - Projections & CCRA • Action Now • Action in the Future RESTRICTED 20 What are we doing already? www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation RESTRICTED 21 Adaptation Team – Our Framework • UK Projections • National Risk Assessment • Statutory Guidance • Regional/local action Providing Evidence Raising Awareness Generating Action Setting National Framework Embed Across Govt RESTRICTED • Adaptation SubCommittee • 56 LAAs NI188 • Government Programme. • Green Book • DAPs Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) Understand the level of risk and compared with others Prioritise adaptation policy Assess the costs and benefits of adaptation actions National – Regional - Local RESTRICTED Adaptation Reporting Power www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation • key sectors to report on the impacts to them of climate change Current Vulnerability to Climate Change • Primary lever for Govt • Consultation just ended Energy Water Electronic communications Emergencies Health & social care Transport Environment Responsible for National Infrastructure RESTRICTED No Existing Comprehensive Regulation Relating to Adaptation 24 Adaptation • Crystal Balls • Evidence - Projections & CCRA • Action Now • Action in the Future RESTRICTED 25 Adaptation in the Short Term www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 2008 Website LRAP Climate Change Act UKCIP NI188 Guidance LA support 2009 2010 2011/2 Projections launch & rollout Adpt Sub Committee 1st report CC Risk Assessment Adaptation SubCommittee Departmental Adaptation Plans National Programme Statutory Guidance General Election Regional Strategies RESTRICTED No Fate But What We Make Ambassadors for action on Climate Change Providing Help to others Working together RESTRICTED 27