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Climate Change: the challenges for Farming and Forestry Robin Mortimer Director of Climate Change, Air Quality, Landscape and Rural Affairs. RESTRICTED Contents 1. Background 2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation 3. Defra’s Plan 4. Partnership with AONBs RESTRICTED 2 Climate science: Global Surface Temperature RESTRICTED 3 Climate science: What’s causing the rise? RESTRICTED 4 Climate change: Who does what in HMG? DECC – lead on mitigation policy (tackling the cause - greenhouse gas emissions) Defra – Leads on adaptation policy (dealing with consequences of a changing climate) DfID – support adaptation and mitigation programmes overseas RESTRICTED 5 1. Background 2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation 3. Defra’s Plan 4. Partnership with AONBs RESTRICTED 6 Scale of UK challenge: 80% cut in emissions •Defra is responsible for the majority of non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases. •The Climate Change Act 2008 and the Low Carbon Transition Plan 2009 established the RESTRICTED Departmental Carbon Budget framework to cut emissions on the scale shown here. 7 Scale of UK Challenge - agriculture and waste If we achieve Low Carbon Transition Plan commitments Historical If agriculture stays at 2020 levels Agriculture & waste If waste reduces 90% from 1990 14% 1990 11% RESTRICTED 2006 12% 30% 2020 2050 8 Scale of UK Challenge: a changing climate RESTRICTED 9 Scale of Challenge - UKCP09 South West in 2050s (Medium Emissions Scenario) Drier Summer rainfall about 10-30% less Warmer Mean summer temperatures about 2 degrees warmer RESTRICTED Scale of Challenge UKCP09 South West 2080s (10% probability – high scenario) Much drier Summer rainfall about 50-70% less Much warmer Mean summer temperatures about 6-8 degrees warmer RESTRICTED 1. Background 2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation 3. Defra’s Plan 4. Partnership with AONBs RESTRICTED 12 Defra Carbon Budget Plan: Cutting agricultural emissions • Voluntary Action Plan agreed with farming industry to deliver 3MTCO2e cost-saving emissions savings per annum by 2020 (x% cut). • Looking at options for further Government action if this is not on track by 2012. • Opportunities for farmers in renewables and bio- energy • Beyond 2020 – tough choices RESTRICTED 13 Defra Adaptation Plan – Agriculture • Agriculture occupies 75% of UK land and is among the first to feel effects of climate change • Opportunities: reduced frost; longer growing seasons and/or new crops/livestock species • Risks: linked to more extreme and variable weather (storms, flooding, water scarcity/drought, heat stress, increased water pollution); new/more pests/diseases; variability in yield; need to change crops RESTRICTED • Defra role to support industry in response 14 Defra Carbon Budget Plan: Forestry •The Read Report shows that Woodland creation provides highly cost-effective abatement. •10,000 ha more woodland each year for 15 years would make major contribution – if continued to 2050 just 1-2% more land for woodland. •Looking at options to incentivise additional investment in woodland. RESTRICTED 15 Defra Adaptation Plan: Forestry • Managing Risks -The interaction of climate change and tree pest and disease outbreaks is of concern. New pests and diseases may establish and existing ones become more aggressive (e.g. oak processionary moth,Phytophthora). • Wider benefits – ecosystem benefits of trees and woodland support wider adaptation strategy – biodiversity, flood management, urban cooling, space for recreation RESTRICTED 16 Defra Adaptation Plan: Landscape • Climate change will affect many aspects of our cherished landscapes in the coming decades • Impacts through changes in flora and fauna and human responses to climate change. • Need to have an honest debate about how best we should manage these and other pressures to deliver maximum range of services for people and the environment: but avoiding change is not an option RESTRICTED 17 Illustrative farmed landscape RESTRICTED 18 1. Background 2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation 3. Defra’s Plan 4. Partnership with AONBs RESTRICTED 19 Defra and AONB Partnership • Defra, National Parks, AONBs and Natural England are working closely together on 2 year climate change Project. • Defra welcomes the Cotswolds Research Project on the Future of Farming and Forestry. • We need an ongoing partnership to respond to change. RESTRICTED 20