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Transcript
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
Preparing for the Future
Jonathan Capstick
RESTRICTED
Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
RESTRICTED
2
Looking to the Future: misconceptions
Predictions Come True
Technology Solves
One Future
First World Comes First
Space 1999: living on
the Moon
RESTRICTED
3
But we know about some key risks
Unavoidable climate
change
Risks of not cutting
emissions
Population Increases
Peak Oil
RESTRICTED
4
Protect & Survive
“The danger posed by climate
change cannot be denied
Future generations will look
back and wonder why we
refused to act
Global warning:
Sydney dust
storm just the
beginning
Why we failed to pass on an
environment that was worthy
of our inheritance.”
President Obama
RESTRICTED
5
Adaptation vs mitigation – the balance
Adaptation and Mitigation.
We cannot have one
without the other.
We filled the cup – we need to
deal with the consequences
This is a key principle of Stern
RESTRICTED
What is adaptation?
Adaptation is any adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities
Understanding
Current climate
Extent of Climate
Change
The climate and weather
variables interact
Assessing
Action
Vulnerability
Impact
Consequence
Costs and Benefits
Protect
Retreat
Live with
Resilience
RESTRICTED
7
Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
RESTRICTED
8
Evidence: Projections
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
 Copenhagen
 UK’s 80% goal
 Prepare for the impacts
Ancient glaciers are
disappearing faster
than ever
(24th Sept)
 Protect
 Seize opportunities
 Common Goals
RESTRICTED
9
Probability
Strategic Planning: Risks and Opportunities
VERY UNLIKELY
LIKELY
VERY UNLIKELY
Some climate variable
RESTRICTED
10
Emissions Pathways
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
IPCC Emission Scenarios
High
Medium
Low
World Stabilisation Scenario
Peak in emissions at
2016 followed by an
annual decrease of
4%
GHG
Increase
GtCO2e
Where we
are now
RESTRICTED
11
Range of Futures
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
6
5
4
3
Global Average Temperatures
IPCC Emission
Scenarios
High
Medium
Low
Where we
are heading
Temp 2
Rise
1
degC
0
2000
RESTRICTED
2020
2040
2060
2080
210012
What are they based on?
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
6
Global Average Temperatures
5
4
3
Temp 2
Rise
1
degC
Some
change is
certain
0
2000
Where we
need to be
RESTRICTED
2020
2040
2060
2080
210013
2080s – A Possible Future
Significant
Changes
Our houses,
infrastructure and
natural
environment are
not adapted
Changes to how
we use land, water
International effects
RESTRICTED
14
Summer average temperature
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
2 to 3ºC
increase
3 to 4ºC
increase
Unlikely to be less than
2.00C or greater than
6.40C for SE 2080s
2020s
+1.6ºC
2040s
+2.3ºC
2080s
4 to 5ºC
increase
+3.9ºC
But we could see 5 times the
number of very hot days & the
hottest day of the year could be up
RESTRICTED
to 10ºC higher
South-East England
central estimate
Medium emissions
15
Summer Temperatures in context
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
2060s
2040s
We are already
committed to this from
past emissions alone
2003
Source Met Office Hadley Centre
35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of
2003 – effective planning is essential
RESTRICTED
16
Summer rainfall
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
2020s
10% to 20%
decrease
20 to 30%
decrease
30% to 40%
decrease
-7%
2040s
-13%
2080s
-23%
Unlikely to be less than -49% or
greater RESTRICTED
than +6% for SW, 2080s
South West
central estimate
Medium emissions
17
Winter rainfall
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
0% to 10%
decrease
2020s
+6%
10% to 20%
increase
Unlikely to be less
than +3% or greater
2040s
+10%
than +35% for NW,
2080s
20% to
30%
increase
2080s
+16%
But the wettest day of the
year could see up to 31%
more rainfall in the North
RESTRICTED
North West
central estimate
Medium Emissions
18
Sea level rise
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
Central Estimate Possible Outcome
2040
High++ scenario: 2100
Rises up to 1.9 m
+ 18cm
2080
+ 36 cm
RESTRICTED
19
Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
RESTRICTED
20
What are we doing already?
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
RESTRICTED
21
Adaptation Team – Our Framework
• UK Projections
• National Risk
Assessment
• Statutory
Guidance
• Regional/local
action
Providing
Evidence
Raising
Awareness
Generating
Action
Setting
National
Framework
Embed
Across
Govt
RESTRICTED
• Adaptation SubCommittee
• 56 LAAs NI188
• Government
Programme.
• Green Book
• DAPs
Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
Understand the
level of risk and
compared with
others
Prioritise
adaptation policy
Assess the costs
and benefits of
adaptation actions
National – Regional - Local
RESTRICTED
Adaptation Reporting Power
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
• key sectors to report on the
impacts to them of climate
change
Current
Vulnerability to
Climate Change
• Primary lever for Govt
• Consultation just ended
Energy
Water
Electronic
communications
Emergencies
Health & social care
Transport
Environment
Responsible
for National
Infrastructure
RESTRICTED
No
Existing
Comprehensive
Regulation
Relating to
Adaptation
24
Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
RESTRICTED
25
Adaptation in the Short Term
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
2008
Website
LRAP
Climate
Change Act
UKCIP
NI188
Guidance
LA support
2009
2010
2011/2
Projections
launch &
rollout
Adpt Sub
Committee 1st
report
CC Risk
Assessment
Adaptation
SubCommittee
Departmental
Adaptation
Plans
National
Programme
Statutory
Guidance
General Election
Regional Strategies
RESTRICTED
No Fate But What We Make
Ambassadors for
action on Climate
Change
Providing Help to
others
Working together
RESTRICTED
27