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New Zealand
Population 4.2 million
Likely to be 5.1 million by
Low population density
Lots of natural resources
Key Impacts
• Hotter, drier North and East, drought in
wine producing regions
• South Island wetter, good for hydro
Good – CO2 fertilization, less cold
deaths, longer growing seasons
Bad – coastal stress from sea level rise,
invasion ecology and disease
Agriculture in NZ
Largest export, 5% of GDP, biggest share of GHG
Future trajectories largely determined by climate
Powerful farming lobby eg Fonterra
NZ GHG Emissions 2005
Eg apples, beer, wine
– longer growing season
– areas will have to shift southward
– new pests bigger ranges, new pesticides?
Adaptation Considerations
• Industry’s best & worst practices
• Role of government in adaptation?
- Regulation, Taxes, Subsidies, Education, Do nothing
Agriculture and Branding
• Reconcile policy with ‘Clean, Green’ branding
• Role of genetic modification
Mitigation and Adaptation
• Combine adaptation & mitigation
- Gain in adaptation
- Suffer with mitigation policies