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New Zealand Population 4.2 million Likely to be 5.1 million by 2051 Low population density Lots of natural resources Key Impacts Regional • Hotter, drier North and East, drought in wine producing regions • South Island wetter, good for hydro catchments General Good – CO2 fertilization, less cold deaths, longer growing seasons Bad – coastal stress from sea level rise, invasion ecology and disease Agriculture in NZ Largest export, 5% of GDP, biggest share of GHG Future trajectories largely determined by climate Powerful farming lobby eg Fonterra NZ GHG Emissions 2005 Eg apples, beer, wine – longer growing season – areas will have to shift southward – new pests bigger ranges, new pesticides? Adaptation Considerations • Industry’s best & worst practices • Role of government in adaptation? - Regulation, Taxes, Subsidies, Education, Do nothing Agriculture and Branding • Reconcile policy with ‘Clean, Green’ branding • Role of genetic modification Mitigation and Adaptation • Combine adaptation & mitigation - Gain in adaptation - Suffer with mitigation policies