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Climate Dynamics
Lecture 1: Course Outline
Lecture given by Kevin Oliver
SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics
1
Weather vs. climate
Remember the December 2009/January
2010 cold snap? In northern Europe....
© Crown Copyright (17 Dec 2009) The Met Office
Cold east to north-easterly winds had become established
Courtesy: NASA (Terra satellite) & Dundee Satellite
across the UK and a weather system brought the first significant Receiving Station (7 Jan 2010)
snowfall of the cold spell to eastern areas of England.
SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics
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Weather vs. climate
... parts of North America....
“Bitter Florida cold drives up orange juice prices”
Germain Moyon (AFP) Jan 8, 2010
- Cold snap caused price hikes in orange juice
through fears of crop failure
“Cold Snap Grips South, Record Snow in East”
Florida orange harvest, Source: Flickr
myfoxboston.com jan 5, 2010
- Crop salvaging takes place and tourists expecting
warmth were met with very cold temperatures.
An example of a clear up operation in the US
Photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Nathanael T. Miller, Source: Flickr
Orange Harvest: Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 Generic
Clear up operation image: Creative Commons, Attribution 2.0 Generic
SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics
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Weather vs. climate
... while other places were unusually warm.
The map of the
Northern Hemisphere
shows the land
temperature anomalies
for the month of
December 2009. Blues
are cold compared to
normal, while
reds/oranges are warm
compared to normal.
Courtesy: NASA
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Weather vs. climate
These were weather events. Weather
occurs on the synoptic scale, which is
roughly the scale of planetary waves in the
atmosphere (of order 1000 km). Weather
systems are very large eddies.
Therefore, weather is intrinsically:
Transitory – decay and transit of eddies
Unpredictable – chaos, which we will
discuss in the course.
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Weather vs. climate
But the behavior of weather systems, is
related to the longer timescale, larger spatial
scale properties of the atmosphere...
For example, the Arctic
Oscillation (AO)
Figure by J. Wallace,
U. Washington
Source: Climate Prediction Centre
... i.e. it is related to climate.
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Weather vs. climate
One factor which increased the probability of
extreme weather was the extreme in the AO
climatic index.
The '09/
'10 "cold
snap"
Source: www.dailyclimate.org
We will look at what drives climate and
climate change on seasonal to glacial
timescales.
SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics
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Course Outline - Aims
(1) To provide a rigorous introduction into the processes
underlying climate variability and climate change, with
emphasis on the ocean’s key role.
(2) To introduce students to the development and use of a
hierarchy of climate models, including simplified models
that help to obtain conceptual understanding.
(3) To provide students with the skills and background
understanding needed to develop informed opinions on
topical issues in climate science.
SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics
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Course Outline - Synopsis
Concepts and models are introduced that help us to
understand fundamental aspects of the Earth's climate,
such as global mean temperature, global-scale
temperature differences, and what might cause these to
vary on timescales of decades and longer. Particular
emphasis will be placed on oceanic and coupled oceanatmosphere processes. While we cover observed elements
of the climate system and a hierarchy of models ranging
from the simplest ones to general circulation models, the
focus will be on conceptual understanding throughout.
Discussing what is not understood, and hence identifying
areas of current and future research, will be a crucial
element.
SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics
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Modelling & Philosophy
• "Science may be described as the
art of oversimplification: the art of
discerning what we may with
advantage omit."
– Karl Popper, “The Open Universe”,
Hutchinson, London (1982)
Course Outline - Topics
(1) Climate as a system – maths!
(2) The atmosphere and the Earth's energy balance
(3) The role of the ocean in climate
(4) A conceptual understanding of climate and the Earth
system, using a model hierarchy
(a) conceptual "box" models
(b) Earth system models of intermediate complexity
(EMICs)
(c) general circulation models (GCMs)
(5) Anthropogenic climate change and geoengineering
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Course Outline – learning outcomes
At the end of the module you should be able to:
(1) Outline the processes that determine past and
present climates, and are relevant to future climate change.
(2) Apply specialised oceanographic knowledge to the
interpretation of observed fluctuations in climate.
(3) Identify mechanisms that stabilise or destabilise the
climate system, both from empirical results and from
system equations.
(4) Choose climate models, at a level of complexity
appropriate for the problem, and use them to address a
range of scientific questions.
(5) Critically analyse the recent literature on a range of
topical issues in climate science.
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Course Outline – structure
Plenary-style Lectures (x18): An outline of each
lecture is provided prior to the start of a lecture or will be
available on the blackboard website. Each lecture
systematically covers the main concepts and topics by the
use of PowerPoint presentations.
Seminal papers to read and discuss (a total of 8 hours
reading time, 1 hour presentation preparation time, and 4
hours discussion time).
Computer modeling workshops: two models (6
hours), which will be used in the independent research part
of the course project.
Workshops on mathematics of linear dynamical
systems: providing essential background for applied theory
section of course project (3 hours total).
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