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Climate Dynamics Lecture 1: Course Outline Lecture given by Kevin Oliver SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 1 Weather vs. climate Remember the December 2009/January 2010 cold snap? In northern Europe.... © Crown Copyright (17 Dec 2009) The Met Office Cold east to north-easterly winds had become established Courtesy: NASA (Terra satellite) & Dundee Satellite across the UK and a weather system brought the first significant Receiving Station (7 Jan 2010) snowfall of the cold spell to eastern areas of England. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 2 Weather vs. climate ... parts of North America.... “Bitter Florida cold drives up orange juice prices” Germain Moyon (AFP) Jan 8, 2010 - Cold snap caused price hikes in orange juice through fears of crop failure “Cold Snap Grips South, Record Snow in East” Florida orange harvest, Source: Flickr myfoxboston.com jan 5, 2010 - Crop salvaging takes place and tourists expecting warmth were met with very cold temperatures. An example of a clear up operation in the US Photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Nathanael T. Miller, Source: Flickr Orange Harvest: Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 Generic Clear up operation image: Creative Commons, Attribution 2.0 Generic SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 3 Weather vs. climate ... while other places were unusually warm. The map of the Northern Hemisphere shows the land temperature anomalies for the month of December 2009. Blues are cold compared to normal, while reds/oranges are warm compared to normal. Courtesy: NASA SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 4 Weather vs. climate These were weather events. Weather occurs on the synoptic scale, which is roughly the scale of planetary waves in the atmosphere (of order 1000 km). Weather systems are very large eddies. Therefore, weather is intrinsically: Transitory – decay and transit of eddies Unpredictable – chaos, which we will discuss in the course. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 5 Weather vs. climate But the behavior of weather systems, is related to the longer timescale, larger spatial scale properties of the atmosphere... For example, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Figure by J. Wallace, U. Washington Source: Climate Prediction Centre ... i.e. it is related to climate. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 6 Weather vs. climate One factor which increased the probability of extreme weather was the extreme in the AO climatic index. The '09/ '10 "cold snap" Source: www.dailyclimate.org We will look at what drives climate and climate change on seasonal to glacial timescales. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 7 Course Outline - Aims (1) To provide a rigorous introduction into the processes underlying climate variability and climate change, with emphasis on the ocean’s key role. (2) To introduce students to the development and use of a hierarchy of climate models, including simplified models that help to obtain conceptual understanding. (3) To provide students with the skills and background understanding needed to develop informed opinions on topical issues in climate science. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 8 Course Outline - Synopsis Concepts and models are introduced that help us to understand fundamental aspects of the Earth's climate, such as global mean temperature, global-scale temperature differences, and what might cause these to vary on timescales of decades and longer. Particular emphasis will be placed on oceanic and coupled oceanatmosphere processes. While we cover observed elements of the climate system and a hierarchy of models ranging from the simplest ones to general circulation models, the focus will be on conceptual understanding throughout. Discussing what is not understood, and hence identifying areas of current and future research, will be a crucial element. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 9 Modelling & Philosophy • "Science may be described as the art of oversimplification: the art of discerning what we may with advantage omit." – Karl Popper, “The Open Universe”, Hutchinson, London (1982) Course Outline - Topics (1) Climate as a system – maths! (2) The atmosphere and the Earth's energy balance (3) The role of the ocean in climate (4) A conceptual understanding of climate and the Earth system, using a model hierarchy (a) conceptual "box" models (b) Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) (c) general circulation models (GCMs) (5) Anthropogenic climate change and geoengineering SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 11 Course Outline – learning outcomes At the end of the module you should be able to: (1) Outline the processes that determine past and present climates, and are relevant to future climate change. (2) Apply specialised oceanographic knowledge to the interpretation of observed fluctuations in climate. (3) Identify mechanisms that stabilise or destabilise the climate system, both from empirical results and from system equations. (4) Choose climate models, at a level of complexity appropriate for the problem, and use them to address a range of scientific questions. (5) Critically analyse the recent literature on a range of topical issues in climate science. SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 12 Course Outline – structure Plenary-style Lectures (x18): An outline of each lecture is provided prior to the start of a lecture or will be available on the blackboard website. Each lecture systematically covers the main concepts and topics by the use of PowerPoint presentations. Seminal papers to read and discuss (a total of 8 hours reading time, 1 hour presentation preparation time, and 4 hours discussion time). Computer modeling workshops: two models (6 hours), which will be used in the independent research part of the course project. Workshops on mathematics of linear dynamical systems: providing essential background for applied theory section of course project (3 hours total). SOES 6006: Climate Dynamics 13 Copyright statement • This resource was created by the University of Southampton and released as an open educational resource through the 'C-change in GEES' project exploring the open licensing of climate change and sustainability resources in the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences. The C-change in GEES project was funded by HEFCE as part of the JISC/HE Academy UKOER programme and coordinated by the GEES Subject Centre. • This resource is licensed under the terms of the Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/). • However the resource, where specified below, contains other 3rd party materials under their own licenses. The licenses and attributions are outlined below: • The University of Southampton and the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton and its logos are registered trade marks of the University. The University reserves all rights to these items beyond their inclusion in these CC resources. • The JISC logo, the C-change logo and the logo of the Higher Education Academy Subject Centre for the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences are licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution -non-commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 UK England & Wales license. All reproductions must comply with the terms of that license. • Content reproduced from Flikr are licensed under Separate creative commons licences as indicated on the slide these are: Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 Generic and Creative Commons, Attribution 2.0 Generic • All content reproduced www.dailyclimate.org are licensed under Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States, Users must cite original author/s and may not alter or modify the work.