Download 1 Frank Raes, Peter Bergamaschi, Hugh Eva, Alan Belward

User Requirements and Policy Support
UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol
Frank Raes, Peter Bergamaschi, Hugh Eva, Alan Belward
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Joint Research Centre
European Commssion
www.jrc.cec.eu.int
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INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Art. 2:
OBJECTIVE
... stabilization greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere …
Art. 4:
COMMITMENTS
… develop … make available national inventories of anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks …
… promote … research, systematic observation … related to the
climate system …
… limit its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases …
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INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK
Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC
Art. 3:
... Parties included in Annex I shall … reduce their overall emissions
… by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period
2008 to 2012.
Art. 5:
… have in place (in 2007) a national system for the estimation of
anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks …
ensure Quality
… based on the work of … the IPCC and advice provided by the
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, the
Conference of The Parties … shall regularly … revise …methodologies …
COP
SBSTA
IPCC
research community
Art. 10: … co-operate in scientific … research and promote the maintenance
and the development of systematic observations systems … related
to the climate system
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EU POLICY FRAMEWORK
Implementation of UNFCCC and future Kyoto Protocol
DG ENVIRONMENT is in charge
DG ENVIRONMENT implements
- monitoring and reporting of emission reductions
- national system under the KP and related QA/QC programme
Monitoring Mechanism for Community CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
DG XXX implements specific reduction policies in sector XXX
DG RESEARCH is delegated to implement
- climate change research
Framework Programmes
- climate observations systems
e.g. GMES
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EU “NATIONAL” SYSTEM
and QA/QC
MS
UNFCCC
guidelines
EEA
EU=MS
DG ENV
UNFCCC
JRC
EUROSTAT
…
Research
GMES
...
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USER REQUIREMENTS
Emission inventories for
(UNFCCC)
- CO2, ……….. NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2
Trends of emissions for (less demanding)
- CO2, …
(KP)
Inventories
- aggregated at country level
- yearly averaged
- for a wide range of sectors (35 in total)
Inventories must be of high quality: i.e
- submitted timely (of year N by 15 April of year N+1)
- consistent in time
- complete (all sectors, all years, all countries)
- comparable (among countries)
- accurate (verification with other independent methods)
- cost-effective
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UNFCCC Common Reporting Format
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFC
PFCs
SF6
NOx
CO
NMVOC SO2
1. Energy
A. Fuel Combustion Activities
1.Energy industries
2.Manufacturing Industries
and Construction
3. Transport
4. …
B. Fugitive Emissions
2. Industrial Processes
A. Mineral Prodcts
B. Chemical Industry
C. Metal Production
D. …
3. Solvent and Other Product Use
4. Agriculture
A. Enteric Fermentation
B. Manure Management
C. Rice Cultivation
D. Agricultural Soils
E. …
5. Land-Use Change and Forestry
A. Changes in Forests and
Other Woody Biomass Stocks
B. Forest and Grassland Conversion
C. …
6. Waste
7. Others
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IMPROVING DATA QUALITY
Highest contributors to the overall uncertainty on the EU GHG inventory:
CO2 sink
CH4 and N2O from agriculture
APPROACHES
- Compare and harmonize methodologies of individual countries
- Develop a EU-wide methodology for verification of national and EU
emissions inventories
EXAMPLES of JRC activities:
- CH4 emissions by Inverse Modeling
- Workshop on Inverse Modeling, Oct 2003
- Monitoring of Land Use Change
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CH4 emissions 2001
CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling
a priori data
COUNTRY
Germany
Italy
France
BENELUX
Austria
Spain
Portugal
United Kingdom
Ireland
Greece
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
TOTAL
NATURAL
Gg CH4 / yr
3879.2
2023.0
2564.8
1467.8
319.7
1844.1
374.8
3351.4
643.7
403.7
1075.8
3227.6
337.0
255.8
-41.5
-114.4
153.4
-14.6
-64.3
-18.1
-38.9
-13.7
-14.9
853.9
2984.0
-6.4
3623.5
2064.5
2679.2
1314.5
334.2
1908.3
392.9
3390.3
657.4
418.6
221.9
243.6
343.4
2397.1
1734.3
3081.8
1490.9
432.1
1920.4
513.7
2195.5
598.2
529.7
278.4
255.6
267.0
0.66
0.84
1.15
1.13
1.29
1.01
1.31
0.65
0.91
1.27
1.25
1.05
0.78
21512.6
3920.3
17592.3
15694.7
0.89
EU-15
ANTHROPOGENIC
IIASA
UNFCCC UNFCCC/IIASA
Relative error: 1.00 ± 0.30
Uncertainty: 2 sigma
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CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling
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CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling
• offline atmospheric transport model
• meteo from ECMWF
• global simulation 6o x 4o
TM5 model grid
• zooming 1o x 1o (Europe, …)
• http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/
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CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling
observations: UBA / GAW
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CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling
posteriori data
Germany
Italy
France
BENELUX
Austria
Spain
Portugal
UK
Ireland
Greece
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
08/2001
0.59 ±
1.08 ±
1.41 ±
1.38 ±
0.96 ±
1.05 ±
1.01 ±
1.30 ±
0.68 ±
1.00 ±
0.98 ±
0.91 ±
1.04 ±
0.10
0.30
0.22
0.22
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.26
0.20
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.30
09/2001
0.68 ±
1.02 ±
1.46 ±
1.42 ±
0.96 ±
1.02 ±
1.00 ±
1.25 ±
0.74 ±
1.00 ±
0.97 ±
0.87 ±
1.04 ±
0.12
0.30
0.24
0.24
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.26
0.20
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
10/2001
1.03 ±
1.04 ±
1.25 ±
1.36 ±
0.96 ±
1.09 ±
1.02 ±
1.21 ±
0.86 ±
1.00 ±
1.00 ±
1.00 ±
1.02 ±
0.10
0.28
0.18
0.22
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.20
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
11/2001
0.72 ±
1.00 ±
1.35 ±
1.56 ±
1.01 ±
1.02 ±
1.00 ±
1.33 ±
0.44 ±
1.00 ±
1.00 ±
1.00 ±
1.02 ±
0.14
0.30
0.24
0.22
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.26
0.16
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
12/2001
0.96 ±
1.00 ±
1.57 ±
1.33 ±
0.95 ±
1.01 ±
1.00 ±
1.06 ±
0.52 ±
1.00 ±
1.03 ±
1.01 ±
1.06 ±
0.16
0.30
0.24
0.22
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.24
0.18
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
08-12/2001
0.80 ± 0.12
1.03 ± 0.30
1.41 ± 0.22
1.41 ± 0.22
0.97 ± 0.30
1.04 ± 0.30
1.01 ± 0.30
1.23 ± 0.26
0.65 ± 0.19
1.00 ± 0.30
1.00 ± 0.30
0.96 ± 0.30
1.04 ± 0.30
Units: relative to a priori estimates
A priori: 1.00 ± 0.30
Uncertainty: 2 sigma
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JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop
CONCLUSIONS - by scientists (Peter Bergamaschi)
- Techniques improved to the point that estimates of national
emission are possible for CH4, N2O, HFC’s
- Inverse Modeling includes biogenic emissions, which usually are
not in the official inventories (e.g. UNFCCC)
- Inverse Modeling of CO2 aims at biospheric emissions/sinks
estimates; anthropogenic emissions well known
- Most advanced studies are based on in-situ measurements; Need
for maintaining monitoring stations; set up a European framework
- Use of remote sensing is presently a problem as the column
concentrations of trace gases (CH4,CO2) don’t have the required
precision (< 1%)
- Need to integrate in-situ, remote sensing and modeling
- Inverse Modeling gives a consistent picture of emissions and
atmospheric concentrations
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JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop
CONCLUSIONS - by policy makers
probability
- Need independent verification
- To be worth the investment IM must have a higher precision than
the conventional (bottom-up) approaches
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1
emission
3
emission
emission
- Need for better understanding of the capabilities and costs
- Follow workshop in spring 2005
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Monitoring De- & Reforestation
1989
1992
1997
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Systematic Observations
THE SECOND REPORT ON THE ADEQUACY OF
THE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE
IN SUPPORT OF THE UNFCCC
by the GCOS secretariat for the IPCC
http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html
april 2003
essential climate variables of high impact on UNFCCC requirements
a.o.:
Atmospheric composition: CO2, CH4, O3, other long-lived GHG
aerosol properties
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Post Kyoto …
ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRATEGIES ?
Reduction of fossil fuel use and related CO2 emissions
remains the primary goal.
At present it is politically difficult to implement
Evaluate additional ways to reduce global warming, considering that
conventional short-lived air pollutants like ozone and black carbon
aerosols also have a warming effect,
Need to integrate climate change and air pollution policies.
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