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Foreign Policy Research on Climate Change Tuesday, May 6, 2008 Mykhaylo Komarnytskyy Iryna Bilotserkivska Marcie Hawranik Background Information Policy Options Recommendations Background Information Climate change impact on France: ♦ Average temperature increase by 2◦C ♦ Decrease in summer rainfall → worsening of forest health ♦ High risk of forest fires, floods, insect infestation ♦ Dwindling snow cover & avalanche threat in French Alps → tourism reduction ♦ Sea levels rise & increase in frequency of storms in French overseas territories Background Information France contribution on fighting climate change: ● Ratification of UNFCCC in March 1994 ● Party to the Kyoto Protocol since 1998 ● Launched climate change abatement strategy in early 1990’s ● One of the leading nuclear & renewable energy producers in the world Policy Option 1 ■ Continue policy on reducing CO2 emission PRO: Policy has already reduced CO2 emissions per head of population more that any other EU member CON: - Cost of greenhouse gas mitigation is relatively high; - Replacement of energy sources no longer produces further lasting reduction of CO2 emissions Policy Option 2 ■ Stop complying to Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC PRO: Avoid extra costs connected with CO2 emissions CON: France increases its possibility of suffering from climate change consequences and credibility will be diminished in the international arena Policy Option 3 ■ Push EU to adopt market-based policy that relies on trading permits or taxing emissions based on polluterpays principle PRO: Most effective, cheap and equitable way of sharing costs of reducing CO2 emissions between developed countries CON: - Challenge of establishing new international framework to regulate fair completion; - Failure to adopt this policy under the same conditions by all partners could lead to unacceptable burden on certain enterprises Recommendation Policy Option 3 EU as a whole would be more effective in reaching its target of reducing CO2 emissions Pollution abatement is achieved by minimum cost France would continue to work toward CO2 reduction while will be able to avoid high cost measures Recommendation Encourage former colonies to ratify Kyoto Protocol Possibility of modifying the road tax Policy Option 3 is consistent with the principle of economic efficiency and the polluter-pays principle QUESTIONS?