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The links to global problems Presentation at the 25th anniversary special event of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution “Past successes and future challenges” Henning Wuester UNFCCC Secretariat Structure 1. Introduction 2. The substantive links between air pollution and climate change • Atmospheric chemistry • Techno-economic links • (Impact interdependencies) 3. Lessons for global problems from 25 years of LRTAP 4. Challenges Air pollutants act as greenhouse gases: Global mean radiative forcing 2000 relative to 1750 Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001 Different projections for CH4 emissions United States of America European Community Ukraine Canada Russian Federation Other Australia 30 25 20 15 10 700 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Methane emissions from developed countries for 1990-2001, UNFCCC data CH4 emissions (Tg/yr) Methane emissions (in Tg) 35 A1B A1T 600 A1F1 A2 500 B1 B2 400 A1p A2p 300 B1p B2p … further research and better data are needed! 200 1990 IS92a 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Methane emissions for the period 1990-2060 according to IPCC scenarios Sources of air pollutants and greenhouse gases and joint abatement options Common sources: •Energy (power generation, heating) •Transport •Industrial processes •Agriculture Examples of common measures to cut air pollution and mitigate climate change: •Enhance energy efficiency •Shift to renewable energy •Shift to natural gas There are also trade-offs, e.g. biomass burning, ammonia abatement. Potential cost-savings estimated for EU by the IIASA RAINS model Emission control costs compared to reference scenarios (billion €/yr): Control of CO2 CH4 GHGs (total) SO2 NOx PM Air pollutants (total) Total Fuel-shift +3.5 0 +3.5 -1.4 -0.3 -0.6 -2.3 Multi-gas +2.1 -1.2 +0.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.8 +1.2 -0.9 Comparing LRTAP and UNFCCC Similarities Differences • Anniversary in December 2004 • Atmospheric problem with similar sources • Political problems with the 1st protocol: concerns over the basic approach • Strong role of science in driving policy • Affordable technical fixes available for air pollutants • Autonomous structural change in the region • Transition process of the 1990s for UNECE region • Economic differences between Parties is lower in LRTAP SO2 emissions: European total 1960-2020: Avoided emissions compared to hypothetical levels 70000 SO2 emission (kt p.a.) 60000 50000 Reductions due to control measures 40000 Reductions due to changes within sectors 30000 Red. due to changes in energy structure Actual SO2 emissions 20000 10000 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 What lessons to learn from 25 years of LRTAP? • Science-based approach: Critical loads and levels as a common metric to evaluate policy impact • Variable geometry of obligations in more advanced protocols (emission ceilings, technology requirements, etc.) • De-link substantive issues from economic concerns (equity) Challenges • Contribute to climate change objectives by reducing O3 and BC at hemispheric scale • Make use of synergies by policy integration at the national level • At international level: – Consistent reporting systems – Cooperation at technical level (emission inventories, atmospheric and integrated assessment modelling) • LRTAP has a responsibility to offer its experience, while recognizing differences: – To other regions on air pollution issues – To global processes on environmental issues