Download Human health co-benefits from climate change mitigation

2017_97: Human health co-benefits from climate
change mitigation
Supervisors: Dr Apostolos Voulgarakis ([email protected]), Professor
Majid Ezzati (Public Health)
Department: Physics
Traditionally, climate and air quality research and policy-making have been pursued
individually, without substantial cross-fertilisation between those two fields. The fact
that the same human activities are responsible for both air quality degradation and
climate change through emitting a variety of harmful constituents makes it essential to
approach those two problems in a single framework. Even though climate and air
pollution science had been based on modelling that was developed separately, the
computational power that exists nowadays has made it possible to simulate different
components of the Earth system, such as atmospheric composition and climate, in
single modelling frameworks. The existence of such models allows for assessments
of how certain emission controls targeting greenhouse gases can lead to benefits for
both climate and for other aspects of the environment and human well being.
In this project, co-benefits for climate and health will be explored by studying the
atmospheric impacts of emission controls in different anthropogenic activity sectors
such as energy production, industry, transportation, agriculture, domestic, as well as
from forest fires. Full Earth system model simulations will be performed with the Met
Office’s UKESM1 model in which emissions from the above sectors will be perturbed
individually. The temperature output resulting from CO2 and other greenhouse gases’
changes will be analysed in parallel with the output of air quality-relevant variables,
specifically the atmospheric concentrations of particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen
oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). Subsequently, the global and regional
health impacts of the resulting changes in air quality and temperature will be quantified
based on the most up-to-date regionally varying concentration-response functions and
of temperature-health relationships from epidemiological studies. Global impacts will
be quantified, while also the most vulnerable areas of the globe will be identified. In
the next step, output from the future simulations performed with UKESM1 for the
forthcoming IPCC assessment will be used to explore what the impact of future
changes in anthropogenic emissions will be on human health, using the same metrics
and relationships. An extra simulation will be run with our recently developed
interactive, climate-sensitive fire module activated in UKESM1, in order to study the
For more information on how to apply visit us at www.imperial.ac.uk/changingplanet
Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet
additional health consequences from changing fire emissions in the future, as a result
of climate change.
The above work will provide the first systematic global analysis of health impacts
resulting from both air quality and temperature changes, as a consequence of both
anthropogenic and forest fire emissions, and using state-of-the-art modelling and
future scenarios. It is expected to provide valuable new insight that will boost both the
multi-disciplinary scientific understanding of environmental change and environmental
policy-making.
For more information on how to apply visit us at www.imperial.ac.uk/changingplanet