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Green Infrastructure and Climate Change Dr Susannah Gill The Mersey Forest [email protected] www.merseyforest.org.uk Overview • Green infrastructure • Climate change • Green infrastructure for adaptation in urban areas • Policy relevance in the UK • North West Climate Change Action Plan • Conclusions www.merseyforest.org.uk Green Infrastructure • Life support system – the network of natural environmental components and green and blue spaces that lie within and between our cities, towns and villages and provide multiple social, economic and environmental benefits • http://www.greeninfrastructurenw.org.uk www.merseyforest.org.uk Our Climate is Changing • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Coherent changes in many aspects of the climate system not just temperature www.merseyforest.org.uk (source: IPCC, 2007) Changes go beyond natural variability Temperature change in last 50 years is very likely (>90% chance) due to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (source: IPCC, 2007) www.merseyforest.org.uk (relative to 1980-99) Global climate change projections www.merseyforest.org.uk (source: IPCC, 2007) What does this mean for the UK? • UKCIP02 – 4 emissions scenarios – 3 time slices – 50 km outputs (some 5 km) • UKCIP08 – Probabilistic scenarios – 25 km output – Due October 2008 www.merseyforest.org.uk UK Climate Changes • • • • • • • • • • • Average temp increases High temp extremes increase in frequency Low temp extremes decrease in frequency Sea-surface temp warms Thermal growing season lengthens Winter precipitation increases Winter precipitation intensity increases Greater contrast between summer & winter Snowfall decreases Summer soil moisture decreases Sea-level rises UKCIP02 High Confidence Levels www.merseyforest.org.uk Greater Manchester Average Maximum Summer Temperature Data from the UK Met Office and UKCIP02 www.merseyforest.org.uk Greater Manchester Summer Precipitation Data from the UK Met Office and UKCIP02 www.merseyforest.org.uk Greater Manchester Winter Precipitation Data from the UK Met Office and UKCIP02 www.merseyforest.org.uk Manchester (Mean Annual Temp) Baseline (1961-90) 2050s Low emissions 2050s High emissions 2080s High emissions Slide courtesy of Mark Broadmeadow Manchester (monthly mean temp, diurnal temp range & precipitation) Baseline (1961-90) 2050s Low emissions 2050s High emissions 2080s High emissions Slide courtesy of Mark Broadmeadow Matt Cardy/Getty Images Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images Kate Gillon/Getty Images Source: The Guardian website June-Aug temp anomalies (relative to 1961-1990 mean) Source: Stott et al, 2004 Climate Change Management www.merseyforest.org.uk Smit et al (1999) Mitigation Role of GI • • • • • Carbon sequestration & storage Direct fossil fuel substitution Material substitution Local food production Reducing need to travel www.merseyforest.org.uk Adaptation Role of GI • Moderating temperature extremes • Decreasing rate and volume of rainwater runoff • Providing wildlife corridors • Providing recreation spaces e.g. high capacity, less sensitive landscapes www.merseyforest.org.uk Key Stakeholders Town & Country Planning Association (Chair) Association of British Insurers Environment Agency North West Climate Group Office of the Deputy Prime Minister Royal Town Planning Institute South East Climate Group http://www.k4cc.org/Members/Claire/BKCC-Results-Publication.pdf ASCCUE Methodology • Two case study areas – Greater Manchester – Lewes, Sussex • Three exposure units – Integrity of the built environment – Human comfort – Urban greenspace Urban Greenspace • Urbanisation alters – Micro-climate – increased temperatures – Hydrology – increased rate & volume of surface runoff • Climate change alters temperature & rainfall patterns • Urban greenspace can moderate ‘urban heat island’ effect and reduce rate & volume of runoff • Therefore urban greenspace has potential to adapt cities to climate change Urban Morphology Types Urban Characterisation Greater Manchester Urban Morphology Types UMT UMT Surface Cover remnant countryside disused & derelict land distribution & storage offices manufacturing town centre retail hospitals schools low density residential med density residential high density residential cemeteries & crematoria refuse disposal water storage & treatment energy production & distribution river, canal rail airports major roads allotments informal open space formal open space formal recreation mineral workings & quarries woodland unimproved farmland improved farmland building other impervious tree shrub mown grass rough grass cultivated water bare soil / gravel 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Proportional cover 0.8 0.9 1.0 ‘Evapotranspiring’ Surfaces UMT ‘Urban’ Tree Cover remnant countryside disused & derelict land distribution & storage offices manufacturing town centre retail hospitals schools low density residential medium density residential high density residential cemeteries & crematoria refuse disposal water storage & treatment energy production & distribution river, canal rail airports major roads allotments informal open space formal open space formal recreation mineral workings & quarries woodland 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Percentage of all 'urban' tree cover Surface Cover and Residential Density Modelling environmental functions • Use surface cover data as one input into surface temperature and runoff models • Series of model runs – Current urban form • Baseline and future climate – ‘Development scenarios’ • Baseline and future climate Maximum Surface Temperatures For a day occurring on average twice per summer Residential ± 10% green cover High density residential Max surface temp (°C) 40 35 current form 30 -10% green 25 +10% green 20 15 1970s 2020s Low 2020s High 2050s Low 2050s High Time period and scenario 2080s Low 2080s High If grass does not evapotranspire… • Maximum surface temperatures increase by – 4.7-5.7°C in high density residential areas – 13.8-15.6°C in schools (Manchester Evening News, 2006) Occurrence of Drought for Grass Months/year when grass water stressed Adaptation in the Public Realm Surface temperature in tree shade here was 13°C cooler than in sun – large mature tree canopies provide more shade Surface Runoff 56% more rain results in 82% more runoff For a precipitation event occurring on average one day per winter, with normal antecedent moisture conditions Infiltration Capacity A case for ‘Conservation Areas’? Climatic adaptation via the green infrastructure Corridor Corridor Patch Matrix ••• •• • Infiltration capacity • •• ••• Evaporative cooling • ••• •• Shading • •• ••• Flood storage Patch Matrix Functional importance of urban greenspace needs to be reflected in plans, policies, strategies Summary of Findings • Greenspace moderates temperatures through evaporative cooling & shading – Mature trees critical for shading • Most effective in regulating surface runoff on high infiltration soils • Increase rainwater storage • Opportunity to use for irrigation in times of drought Policy Implications • Work across administrative boundaries & disciplines • Protect critical environmental capital • No net loss of green cover • Creative greening • Take opportunities in new development / restructuring • Ensure water supply Increasing Policy Relevance www.merseyforest.org.uk NW Climate Change Action Plan • “Undertake scoping studies to assess future regional risks, opportunities and priorities for the potential for green infrastructure, including regional parks, to adapt and mitigate for climate change impacts and commence implementation of findings” www.merseyforest.org.uk GI functions for climate change Mitigation Adaptation Biofuels production Timber production Food production Carbon storage Recreation Green travel routes Shading from sun Evaporative cooling Shading from sun Evaporative cooling Water storage Water interception Water infiltration Soil stabilisation Storm protection Habitat for wildlife Corridor for wildlife Recreation www.merseyforest.org.uk Conclusion • Climate change mitigation role limited but important • Climate change adaptation role substantial • GI is a good adaptation strategy as it has other functions and benefits • To maximise this need strategic planning at all levels, with functionality in mind • Protect, create, enhance, and maintain www.merseyforest.org.uk