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Rising to the Challenge of Climate Change in the South East Local Presenter & Organisation Partner’s Logo www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Outline What is climate change? How will the South East be affected? What is the South East Climate Change Partnership? How is [local organisation] involved? How do I find out more? www.climatesoutheast.org.uk What is climate change? Who to believe? Is it happening? Isn’t it ‘natural’? Can it be stopped? www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: who to believe? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) US Environmental Protection Agency US National Academy of Sciences Kyoto Protocol signatories www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: is it happening? Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Met Office) www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: is it happening? Increase in global surface temperature over the past 1000 years – and projections for this century. Source: IPCC www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: isn’t it natural? Climate has always changed – and always will. Natural factors include: – Changes in the Sun’s energy output – Changes in the Earth’s tilt & orbit – The effects of volcanoes But global climate also responds to changes in greenhouse gases: – Carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, CFCs, water vapour… www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: isn’t it natural? CO2 levels have risen by 31% in 250 years: – Pre-industrial = 280ppm – End of 20th century = 368ppm CO2 levels could more than double again by the 2080s Global climate takes time to respond to increasing GHG levels Changes we have seen so far have been a combination of natural and human factors www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: isn’t it natural? How “Natural”, “Man-made” & “Mixed” models compare with observations of rising temperature. Source: IPCC www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Climate change: can it be stopped? Emissions of GHGs now will affect climate from the 2050s onwards But we are already ‘locked in’ to climate change from past emissions Some change is inevitable! www.climatesoutheast.org.uk How will the SE be affected? How will our climate change? What are the challenges? www.climatesoutheast.org.uk How will the SE climate change? New climate change scenarios were produced for the UK in April 2002 Changes in 26 variables – e.g. temperature & rainfall etc 3 Timescales – ‘2020s’, ‘2050s’ & ‘2080s’ Most changes will be more extreme in the South East than elsewhere www.climatesoutheast.org.uk How will the SE climate change? Changes will include Temperature & Rainfall - plus: Soil moisture Humidity Cloud cover Solar energy reaching ground level (UV) Sea level Extreme events: – Storms – Flooding – Droughts www.climatesoutheast.org.uk How will the SE climate change? Change in UK Summer Temperatures for the 2080s (Medium-High Scenario) Source: UKCIP www.climatesoutheast.org.uk How will the SE climate change? www.climatesoutheast.org.uk How will the SE climate change? www.climatesoutheast.org.uk What are the challenges? Some further climate change is inevitable – Delayed climate response to GHGs Climate change will mean adapting the way we plan and manage: – Our countryside – Our built environment & heritage – Our water resources – Our floodplains – Our coastal defences – Our businesses www.climatesoutheast.org.uk John Craven – SECCP President “Combating the future effects of climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the world today, especially in low-lying denselypopulated areas such as the South East of England. We must be prepared.” www.climatesoutheast.org.uk Adaptive planning Integrated approach to decisions Climate change will continue It will impact on the South East We need to: – Reduce risks – Take opportunities – Avoid increasing future causes of change Make use of best current understanding Involve stakeholders www.climatesoutheast.org.uk South East Climate Change Partnership A partnership of public, private & voluntary sectors created to: Investigate, inform and advise on the threats & opportunities from the impacts of climate change in South East England Promote adaptive planning in the region. www.climatesoutheast.org.uk SE Climate Change Partnership Partners include: Public sector – Local & regional Government – National agencies Private sector – Water companies – Environmental technology & consultancy Voluntary sector – Wildlife charities – Heritage charities www.climatesoutheast.org.uk The response… The partnership approach & regional coverage help us, by – Demonstrating credibility in addressing the issues – Building confidence in developing our responses – Acting as a catalyst in bringing together sources of solutions www.climatesoutheast.org.uk SECCP activities Key sectors: Agriculture Biodiversity Business community Emergency planning Planning Tourism Utilities & infrastructure www.climatesoutheast.org.uk SECCP activities Annual forum – Members’ AGM & stakeholders conference Website: – Decision makers & public Quarterly bulletin – Members & stakeholders Training & Workshops – Skills & experience Projects – Research & demonstration www.climatesoutheast.org.uk For further information XXXX: Contact name Email Phone number SECCP: Mark Goldthorpe, Programme Manager Email: [email protected] Tel: 020 8541 7972 www.climatesoutheast.org.uk