Download Climate Change Class at Osher Lifelong Learning

2016 OLLI Class – Our Changing Climate
1:15‐2:45 on Wednesdays
Lectures by NCSU Professors
Sept. 14 ‐‐ Dr. Russell Philbrick, Global Scale of Climate Change – pp 11‐34 Sept. 21 ‐‐ Dr. Lonnie Liethhold, Historical Perspective of Climate Change – pp 34‐59 Sept. 28 ‐‐ Dr. Anantha Aiyyer, Impact of Climate Change on Significant Weather Events Oct. 5 ‐‐ Dr. Dave DeMaster, Climate Change and High Latitudes – pp 60‐82 Oct. 12 ‐‐ Dr. William Kinsella, Climate Changes and the Future of Society – pp 83‐96 Oct. 19 ‐‐ Dr. Philbrick and Others, Climate Change Action Path and Wrap‐up – pp 97‐109 Attachments:
1. Handouts – pp1-10
2. Class Slides (2 per-page)
Handout at the 1st OLLI Class
Supplemental Information for OLLI Class: Our Changing Climate
Two attachments to this page provide useful detailed information to support and summarize our
best current knowledge on the topic of climate change. Much of the general published
information on the environment today is politicized in one-way or another, but these two short
items provide factual statements that represent our current understanding of this subject.
The attachments include:
1. A set of twelve summary statements that represent top level conclusions of the US National
Climate Assessment Report published in 2014. These three pages summarize the conclusions of
this study and the complete 814 page report (174 MB) is available on the web at:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads or from libraries using the following citation:
Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change
Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change
Research Program, 841 pp. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2.
2. The Executive Summary of CONFRONTING CIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE
UNIMANAGEABE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE, prepared by The Scientific
Research Society, Sigma Xi, for the United Nations Foundation in 2007, available at
www.conftontingclimatechance.org
If you wish to explore further, the major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol 1
2013 Report (1552 pg, 375 MB), IPCC with all of the technical details can be found at:
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
The follow up study and recommendations are available in the IPCC Vol 2 2014 Report at:
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/
1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES
Report Findings
These findings distill important results that arise from this National Climate Assessment. They
do not represent a full summary of all of the chapters’ findings, but rather a synthesis of
particularly noteworthy conclusions.
1. Global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide
range of observations. The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to
human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels.
Many independent lines of evidence confirm that human activities are affecting climate in unprecedented ways. U.S. average temperature has increased by 1.3°F to 1.9°F since record keeping began in 1895; most of this increase has occurred since about 1970. The most recent decade was the warmest on record. Because human‐induced warming is superimposed on a naturally varying climate, rising temperatures are not evenly distributed across the country or over time.21 See page 18. 2. Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and
new and stronger evidence confirms that some of these increases are related to
human activities.
Changes in extreme weather events are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human‐induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the United States has seen an increase in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, and in some regions, more severe droughts.22 See page 24. 3. Human-induced climate change is projected to continue, and it will accelerate
significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase.
Heat‐trapping gases already in the atmosphere have committed us to a hotter future with more climate‐
related impacts over the next few decades. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat‐trapping gases that human activities emit globally, now and in the future.23 See page 28. 4. Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are
expected to become increasingly disruptive across the nation throughout this
century and beyond.
Climate change is already affecting societies and the natural world. Climate change interacts with other environmental and societal factors in ways that can either moderate or intensify these impacts. The types and magnitudes of impacts vary across the nation and through time. Children, the elderly, the sick, and the poor are especially vulnerable. There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat‐trapping gases are greatly reduced.24 See page 32. 1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES
5. Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including
through more extreme weather events and wildfire, decreased air quality, and
diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water.
Climate change is increasing the risks of heat stress, respiratory stress from poor air quality, and the spread of waterborne diseases. Extreme weather events often lead to fatalities and a variety of health impacts on vulnerable populations, including impacts on mental health, such as anxiety and post‐
traumatic stress disorder. Large‐scale changes in the environment due to climate change and extreme weather events are increasing the risk of the emergence or reemergence of health threats that are currently uncommon in the United States, such as dengue fever.25 See page 34. 6. Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, heavy downpours, and extreme
heat; damages are projected to increase with continued climate change.
Sea level rise, storm surge, and heavy downpours, in combination with the pattern of continued development in coastal areas, are increasing damage to U.S. infrastructure including roads, buildings, and industrial facilities, and are also increasing risks to ports and coastal military installations. Flooding along rivers, lakes, and in cities following heavy downpours, prolonged rains, and rapid melting of snowpack is exceeding the limits of flood protection infrastructure designed for historical conditions. Extreme heat is damaging transportation infrastructure such as roads, rail lines, and airport runways.26 See page 38. 7. Water quality and water supply reliability are jeopardized by climate change in a
variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods.
Surface and groundwater supplies in some regions are already stressed by increasing demand for water as well as declining runoff and groundwater recharge. In some regions, particularly the southern part of the country and the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, climate change is increasing the likelihood of water shortages and competition for water among its many uses. Water quality is diminishing in many areas, particularly due to increasing sediment and contaminant concentrations after heavy downpours.27 See page 42. 8. Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projected to
become more severe over this century.
Some areas are already experiencing climate‐related disruptions, particularly due to extreme weather events. While some U.S. regions and some types of agricultural production will be relatively resilient to climate change over the next 25 years or so, others will increasingly suffer from stresses due to extreme heat, drought, disease, and heavy downpours. From mid‐century on, climate change is projected to have more negative impacts on crops and livestock across the country – a trend that could diminish the security of our food supply.28 See page 46. 1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES
9. Climate change poses particular threats to Indigenous Peoples’ health, well-being,
and ways of life.
Chronic stresses such as extreme poverty are being exacerbated by climate change impacts such as reduced access to traditional foods, decreased water quality, and increasing exposure to health and safety hazards. In parts of Alaska, Louisiana, the Pacific Islands, and other coastal locations, climate change impacts (through erosion and inundation) are so severe that some communities are already relocating from historical homelands to which their traditions and cultural identities are tied. Particularly in Alaska, the rapid pace of temperature rise, ice and snow melt, and permafrost thaw are significantly affecting critical infrastructure and traditional livelihoods.29 See page 48. 10. Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being affected by climate
change. The capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts of extreme events like
fires, floods, and severe storms is being overwhelmed.
Climate change impacts on biodiversity are already being observed in alteration of the timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst and substantial range shifts of many species. In the longer term, there is an increased risk of species extinction. These changes have social, cultural, and economic effects. Events such as droughts, floods, wildfires, and pest outbreaks associated with climate change (for example, bark beetles in the West) are already disrupting ecosystems. These changes limit the capacity of ecosystems, such as forests, barrier beaches, and wetlands, to continue to play important roles in reducing the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure, human communities, and other valued resources.30 See page 50. 11. Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean
circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life.
More acidic waters inhibit the formation of shells, skeletons, and coral reefs. Warmer waters harm coral reefs and alter the distribution, abundance, and productivity of many marine species. The rising temperature and changing chemistry of ocean water combine with other stresses, such as overfishing and coastal and marine pollution, to alter marine‐based food production and harm fishing communities.31 See page 58. 12. Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to
reduce future climate change, for example by cutting emissions) is becoming more
widespread, but current implementation efforts are insufficient to avoid increasingly
negative social, environmental, and economic consequences.
Actions to reduce emissions, increase carbon uptake, adapt to a changing climate, and increase resilience to impacts that are unavoidable can improve public health, economic development, ecosystem protection, and quality of life.32 See page 62. February 2007
Executive Summary
Introduction to
Confronting Climate Change
Three years ago, Sigma Xi was invited by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs to convene an international panel of scientists to prepare a report outlining the best measures for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. Chaired by Sigma Xi Past-President Peter
H. Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Garden, the 18-member Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
held its first meeting at the Sigma Xi Center in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, in December of 2004 and presented its final report in New
York on February 27, 2007. The non-profit United Nations Foundation co-sponsored the study. “This report gives very clear recommendations,”
Raven said, “for what the international community and nations themselves must do to mitigate and adapt to climate change.” The following is an
executive summary, and the full report can be found at www.sigmaxi.org.
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:
AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE
Executive Summary. Scientific Expert Group Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development.
Prepared for the 15th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development.
Global climate change, driven largely by the combustion of fossil fuels and by deforestation, is a growing threat to human well-being in developing and industrialized nations alike. Significant harm from climate change is already occurring, and further damages
are a certainty. The challenge now is to keep climate change from becoming a catastrophe. There is still a good chance of succeeding
in this, and of doing so by means that create economic opportunities that are greater than the costs and that advance rather than
impede other societal goals. But seizing this chance requires an immediate and major acceleration of efforts on two fronts: mitigation
measures (such as reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases and black soot) to prevent the degree of climate change from becoming unmanageable; and adaptation measures (such as building dikes and adjusting agricultural practices) to reduce the harm from
climate change that proves unavoidable.
Avoiding the Unmanageable
Human activities have changed the climate of the Earth, with significant impacts on ecosystems and human society,
and the pace of change is increasing. The
global-average surface temperature is now
about 0.8°C1 above its level in 1750, with
most of the increase having occurred
in the 20th century and the most rapid
rise occurring since 1970. Temperature
changes over the continents have been
greater than the global average and the
changes over the continents at high latitudes have been greater still.
The pattern of the observed changes
matches closely what climate science predicts from the buildup in the atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), and other greenhouse
gases (GHGs), taking into account other
known influences on the temperature.
The largest of all of the human and natural influences on climate over the past 250
years has been the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration resulting from
deforestation and fossil-fuel burning. The
CO2 emissions in recent decades (Figure
ES.1), which have been responsible for
the largest part of this buildup, have come
75% to 85% from fossil fuels (largely in
the industrialized countries) and 15% to
25% from deforestation and other landcover change (largely from developing
countries in the tropics).
The seemingly modest changes in average temperature experienced over the 20th
century have been accompanied by significant increases in the incidence of floods,
droughts, heat waves, and wildfires, particularly since 1970. It now appears that
the intensity of tropical storms has been
increasing as well. There have also been
large reductions in the extent of summer
sea ice in the Arctic, large increases in summer melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet,
signs of instability in the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet, and movement in the geographic
and altitudinal ranges of large numbers of
plant and animal species.
Even if human emissions could be instantaneously stopped, the world would not
escape further climatic change. The slow
equilibration of the oceans with changes
in atmospheric composition means that a
further 0.4°C to 0.5°C rise in global-average surface temperature will take place as a
result of the current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and particles.
If CO2 emissions and concentrations
grow according to mid-range projections, moreover, the global average surface temperature is expected to rise by
0.2°C to 0.4°C per decade throughout
1 A given temperature change in degrees Celsius (°C) can be converted into a change in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) by multiplying by 1.8. Thus, a change of 0.8°C corresponds to a change of 0.8 x 1.8 = 1.44°F.
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:
AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE
1
the 21st century and would continue to
rise thereafter. The cumulative warming
by 2100 would be approximately 3°C to
5°C over preindustrial conditions. Accumulating scientific evidence suggests that
changes in the average temperature of
this magnitude are likely to be associated
with large and perhaps abrupt changes
in climatic patterns that, far more than
average temperature alone, will adversely
impact agriculture, forestry, fisheries, the
availability of fresh water, the geography
of disease, the livability of human settlements, and more (see Figure ES.2). Even
over the next decade, the growing impacts
of climate change will make it difficult to
meet the UN’s Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs).
No one can yet say for certain what increase in global-average surface temperature
above the 1750 value is “too much,” in
the sense that the consequences become
truly unmanageable. In our judgment and
that of a growing number of other analysts
and groups, however, increases beyond 2°C
to 2.5°C above the 1750 level will entail
sharply rising risks of crossing a climate
“tipping point” that could lead to intolerable impacts on human well-being, in spite
of all feasible attempts at adaptation.
Ramping up mitigation efforts quickly enough to avoid an increase of 2°C to
2.5°C would not be easy. Doing so would
require very rapid success in reducing emissions of CH4 and black soot worldwide,
and it would require that global CO2 emissions level off by 2015 or 2020 at not much
above their current amount, before beginning a decline to no more than a third of
that level by 2100. (The stringency of this
trajectory and the difficulty of getting onto
it are consequences, above all, of the emission levels already attained, the long time
scale for removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes, and the long
operating lifetimes of CO2-emitting energy
technologies that today are being deployed
around the world at an increasing pace.)
But the challenge of halting climate
change is one to which civilization must rise.
Given what is currently known and suspected about how the impacts of climate change
are likely to grow as the global-average surface temperature increases, we conclude that
the goal of society’s mitigation efforts should
2
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production,
including land use change (Mt C per year from 1950 - 2003)
1 - 10
50 - 100
10 - 50
100 - 1000
1000 - 1500
Figure ES.1. The annual emissions of CO2 by country, averaged over the period 1950 to 2003, in millions of
tonnes of carbon per year (MtC/year).
be to hold the increase to 2°C if possible and
in no event more than 2.5°C.
Managing the Unavoidable
Even with greatly increased efforts to mitigate future changes in climate, the magnitude of local, regional, and global changes
in climatic patterns experienced in the 21st
century will be substantial.
• A 2°C increase in the global-average surface temperature above its 1750 value
is likely, for example, to result in up to
a 4°C warming in the middle of large
continents and even larger increases in
the polar regions. Regional changes will
be even more extreme if global average
temperatures rise by 3°C or higher.
• Climate change during the 21st century
is likely to entail increased frequency and
intensity of extreme weather, increases
in sea level and the acidity of the oceans
that will not be reversible for centuries to
millennia, large-scale shifts in vegetation
that cause major losses of sensitive plant
and animal species, and significant shifts
in the geographic ranges of disease vectors and pathogens.
man health, and settlements, resulting in
increased loss of life and property.
• Some sectors in some locations may benefit from the initial changes in climate.
Most impacts are expected to be negative,
however, with the social and economic
consequences disproportionately affecting
the poorest nations, those in water-scarce
regions, and vulnerable coastal communities in affluent countries.
Managing the unavoidable changes in climate, both by promoting adaptation and by
building capacity for recovery from extreme
events, will be a challenge. International, national, and regional institutions are, in many
senses, ill prepared to cope with current
weather-related disasters, let alone potential problems such as an increasing number
of refugees fleeing environmental damages
spawned by climate change. Society will
need to improve management of natural resources and preparedness/response strategies
to cope with future climatic conditions that
will be fundamentally different from those
experienced for the last 100 years.
Integrating Adaptation and
Mitigation to Achieve Multiple
• These changes have the potential to lead Benefits
to large local-to-regional disruptions in
ecosystems and to adverse impacts on
food security, fresh water resources, hu-
The simultaneous tasks of starting to drastically reduce GHG emissions, continuing to
adapt to intensifying climate change, and
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:
AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE
North America: Reduced springtime snowpack; changing river flows; shifting ecosystems, with loss of niche environments;
rising sea level and increased intensity
and energy of Atlantic hurricanes increase
coastal flooding and storm damage; more
frequent and intense heat waves and
wildfires; improved agriculture and forest
productivity for a few decades
Arctic: Significant retreat of ice; disrupted habitats of polar
megafauna; accelerated loss of ice from Greenland Ice Sheet and
mountain glaciers; shifting of fisheries; replacement of most tundra
by boreal forest; greater exposure to UV-radiation
Central and Northern Asia: Widespread melting of
permafrost, disrupting transportation and buildings;
greater swampiness and ecosystem stress from
warming; increased release of methane; coastal erosion
due to sea ice retreat
Southern Asia: Sea level rise and more intense
cyclones increase flooding of deltas and coastal
plains; major loss of mangroves and coral reefs;
melting of mountain glaciers reduces vital river
flows; increased pressure on water resources with
rising population and need for irrigation; possible
monsoon perturbation
Central America and West Indies:
Greater likelihood of intense rainfall
and more powerful hurricanes;
increased coral bleaching; some
inundation from sea level rise;
biodiversity loss
Pacific and Small Islands: Inundation of low-lying
coral islands as sea level rises; salinization of
aquifers; widespread coral bleaching; more
powerful typhoons and possible intensification of
ENSC extremes
South America: Disruption of tropical forests and
significant loss of biodiversity; melting glaciers
reduce water supplies; increased moisture stress
in agricultural regions; more frequent occurrence of
intense periods of rain, leading to more flash floods
Europe: More intense winter precipitation, river
flooding, and other hazards; increased summer heat
waves and melting of mountain glaciers; greater water
stress in southern regions; intensifying regional climatic
differences; greater biotic stress, causing shifts in flora;
tourism shift from Mediterranean region
Global Oceans: Made more acidic by increasing CO2
concentration, deep overturning circulation possibly
reduced by warming and freshening in North Atlantic
Antarctica and Southern Ocean:Increasing risk of significant ice loss
from West Antarctic Ice Sheet, risking much higher sea level in centuries
ahead; accelerating loss of sea ice, disrupting marine life and penguins
Africa: Declining agricultural yields and
diminished food security; increased
occurrence of drought and stresses on
water supplies; disruption of ecosystems
and loss of biodiversity, including some
major species; some coastal inundation
Australia and New Zealand: Substantial loss of coral
along Great Barrier Reef; significant diminishment of water
resources; coastal inundation of some settled areas;
increased fire risk; some early benefits to agriculture
Figure ES.2. Significant impacts of climate change that will likely occur across the globe in the 21st century.
achieving the MDGs will require skillful
planning and implementation, all the more
so because of the interaction of these aims.
For example, clean and affordable energy supplies are essential for achieving the
MDGs in the developing countries and for
expanding and sustaining well-being in the
developed ones. Energy’s multiple roles in
these issues provide “win-win” opportunities as well as challenges, including:
• Utilizing the most advanced building designs, which can provide emissions-free
space conditioning (cooling and heating)
in ways that greatly reduce energy and
water demands and that promote improved health and worker performance.
• Implementing carbon capture and storage
from fossil-fueled power plants, which
reduce impacts on climate while making
available concentrated CO2 that can be
used in enhanced natural gas and oil recovery and in agricultural applications.
• Replacing traditional uses of biomass fuels
for cooking and heating (including agricultural residues and animal dung burned
in inefficient cookstoves) with modern energy supplies that can reduce production
of black soot and other aerosols, improve
the health of women and children otherwise exposed to high indoor air pollution
from traditional uses of biomass, and reduce deforestation and land degradation.
• Combining the sustainable use of biomass for energy (renewable sources of
biomass to produce electricity, liquid
fuels, and gaseous fuels) with carbon
capture and sequestration, which can
power development and remove CO2
already emitted to the atmosphere.
In addition, reversing the unsustainable
land-use practices that lead to deforestation and degradation of soil fertility
will help limit the release of CO2 and
CH4 into the atmosphere from the soil.
Improving sanitation in rural areas can
reduce emissions of CH4 and provide a
renewable fuel to help reduce dependence
on coal, petroleum, and natural gas.
Projects and programs from around the
world have demonstrated that much progress can be made on climate-change mitigation and adaptation in ways that save
money rather than add to costs. Some of
the measures that will ultimately be required
are likely to have significant net costs—albeit much less, in all likelihood, than the
climate-change damages averted—but a clear
way forward for immediate application is to
promote much wider adoption of “win-win”
approaches, such as those described above,
that reduce climate-change risks while saving
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:
AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE
money, or that produce immediate co-benefits outweighing the costs of the measures.
To move further, government leadership is
required to establish policy frameworks that
create incentives for energy-system change
and establish public-private partnerships for
energy-technology development, deployment,
and diffusion. Leaders in the private sector
also need to seize opportunities to develop,
commercialize, and deploy low-emitting energy technologies that will also create jobs
and enable economic development. Individuals, especially in affluent societies, must also
show leadership by consuming responsibly.
The Elements of a Roadmap
Avoiding the unmanageable and managing
the unavoidable will require an immediate
and major acceleration of efforts to both
mitigate and adapt to climate change. The
following are our recommendations for immediate attention by the United Nations
(UN) system and governments worldwide.
1. Accelerate implementation of win-win
solutions that can moderate climate change
while also moving the world toward a more
sustainable future energy path and making
progress on attaining the MDGs. Key steps
must include measures to:
• Improve efficiency in the transportation sector through measures such as
3
vehicle efficiency standards, fuel taxes,
and registration fees/rebates that favor
purchase of efficient and alternative
fuel vehicles, government procurement
standards, and expansion and strengthening of public transportation and regional planning.
• Improve the design and efficiency of
commercial and residential buildings
through building codes, standards for
equipment and appliances, incentives
for property developers and landlords
to build and manage properties efficiently, and financing for energy-efficiency investments.
• Expand the use of biofuels, especially
in the transportation sector, through
energy portfolio standards and incentives to growers and consumers, with
careful attention to environmental impacts, biodiversity concerns, and energy
and water inputs.
• Promote reforestation, afforestation, and
improved land-use practices in ways that
enhance overall productivity and delivery
of ecological services while simultaneously storing more carbon and reducing
emissions of smoke and soot.
• Beginning immediately, design and deploy only coal-fired power plants that
will be capable of cost-effective and environmentally sound retrofits for capture and sequestration of their carbon
emissions.
2. Implement a new global policy framework for mitigation that results in significant emissions reductions, spurs development and deployment of clean energy
technologies, and allocates burdens and benefits fairly. Such a framework needs to be in
place before the end of the Kyoto Protocol’s
first commitment period in 2012. Elements
of the framework should include:
• An agreed goal of preventing a globalaverage temperature increase of more
than 2°C to 2.5°C above the 1750
value-accompanied by multi-decade
emission-reduction targets compatible
with this aim.
4
• Metrics of performance that enable
monitoring of progress towards reductions in energy and emissions intensity
at a national level.
• Flexibility in the types of policies, measures, and approaches adopted that reflect different national levels of development, needs, and capabilities.
• Mechanisms that establish a price for
carbon, such as taxes or “cap and trade”
systems. A carbon price will help provide
incentives to increase energy efficiency,
encourage use of low-carbon energysupply options, and stimulate research
into alternative technologies. Markets for
trading emission allocations will increase
economic efficiency.
• A mechanism to finance incremental costs
of more efficient and lower-emitting energy technologies in low-income countries.
3. Develop strategies to adapt to ongoing
and future changes in climate by integrating the implications of climate change
into resource management and infrastructure development, and by committing to
help the poorest nations and most vulnerable communities cope with increasing
climate-change damages. Taking serious
action to protect people, communities,
and essential natural systems will involve
commitments to:
• Undertake detailed regional assessments
to identify important vulnerabilities
and establish priorities for increasing
the adaptive capacity of communities,
infrastructure, and economic activities.
For example, governments should commit to incorporate adaptation into local
Agenda 21 action plans and national
sustainable-development strategies.
• Develop technologies and adaptivemanagement and disaster-mitigation
strategies for water resources, coastal
infrastructure, human health, agriculture, and ecosystems/biodiversity,
which are expected to be challenged in
virtually every region of the globe, and
define a new category of “environmental refugee” to better anticipate support
requirements for those fleeing environmental disasters.
• Avoid new development on coastal
land that is less than one meter above
present high tide, as well as within
high-risk areas such as floodplains.
• Ensure that the effects of climate
change are considered in the design of
protected areas and efforts to maintain
biodiversity.
• Enhance early-warning systems to provide improved prediction of weather
extremes, especially to the most vulnerable countries and regions.
• Bolster existing financial mechanisms
(such as the Global Environment Facility)- and create additional ones-for
helping the most vulnerable countries
cope with unavoidable impacts, possibly using revenues generated from
carbon pricing, as planned in the Adaptation Fund of the Clean Development Mechanism.
• Strengthen adaptation-relevant institutions and build capacity to respond to
climate change at both national and international levels. The UN Commission
on Sustainable Development (CSD)
should request that the UN system
evaluate the adequacy of, and improve
coordination among, existing organizations such as the CSD, the Framework Convention on Climate Change,
the World Health Organization, the
Food and Agriculture Organization, the
UN Refugee Agency, the World Bank,
and others to more effectively support
achievement of the MDGs and adaptation to climate change.
4. Create and rebuild cities to be climate resilient and GHG-friendly, taking
advantage of the most advanced technologies and approaches for using land, fresh
water, and marine, terrestrial, and energy
resources. Crucial action items include
the following elements:
• Modernize cities and plan land-use
and transportation systems, including
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:
AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE
greater use of public transit, to reduce
energy use and GHG intensity and increase the quality of life and economic
success of a region’s inhabitants.
• Construct all new buildings using designs appropriate to local climate.
• Upgrade existing buildings to reduce
energy demand and slow the need for
additional power generation.
• Promote lifestyles, adaptations, and
choices that require less energy and demand for non-renewable resources.
5. Increase investments and cooperation
in energy-technology innovation to develop the new systems and practices that
are needed to avoid the most damaging
consequences of climate change. Current
levels of public and private investment in
energy-technology research, development,
demonstration, and pre-commercial deployment are not even close to commensurate with the size of the challenge and
the extent of the opportunities. We recommend that national governments and
the UN system:
• Advocate and achieve a tripling to quadrupling of global public and private
investments in energy-technology research, emphasizing energy efficiency
in transportation, buildings, and the
industrial sector; biofuels, solar, wind,
and other renewable technologies; and
advanced technologies for carbon capture and sequestration.
• Promote a comparable increase in
public and private investments-with
particular emphasis on public-private
partnerships-focused on demonstration and accelerated commercial deployment of energy technologies with
large mitigation benefits.
• Use UN institutions and other specialized organizations to promote public-private partnerships that increase
private-sector financing for energy-efficiency and renewable-energy investments, drawing upon limited public
resources to provide loan guarantees
and interest rate buy-downs.
• Increase energy-technology research, development, and demonstration across
the developing regions of the world. Potential options for achieving this goal
include twinning arrangements between
developed and developing countries and
strengthening the network of regional
centers for energy-technology research.
• Over the next two years, complete a
study on how to better plan, finance,
and deploy climate-friendly energy
technologies using the resources of UN
and other international agencies such
as the UN Development Programme,
the World Bank, and the Global Environment Facility.
6. Improve communication to accelerate
adaptation and mitigation by increasing
education efforts and creating forums for
dialogue, technology assessment, and planning. The full range of public- and privatesector participants should be engaged to encourage partnerships across industrial and
academic experts, the financial community,
and public and private organizations. National governments and the UN system
should take the following steps:
• Develop an international process to assess technologies and refine sectoral targets
for mitigation that brings together experts
from industry, nongovernmental organizations, the financial community, and government. The Technology and Economic
Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol provides an effective model for assessing technological potential and effective,
realistic sectoral mitigation targets.
• Enhance national programs for public and
corporate education on the needs, paths,
opportunities, and benefits of a transition
to a low-emission energy future.
• Enlist the educational and capacitybuilding capabilities of UN institutions
to provide information about climate
change and the opportunities for adaptation and mitigation. Under the leadership of the Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, the UN should complete an internal study to more effectively
engage relevant UN agencies.
The Time for Collective Action is Now
Governments, corporations, and individuals must act now to forge a new path to a sustainable future with a stable climate and a
robust environment. There are many opportunities for taking effective early action at little or no cost. Many of these opportunities
also have other environmental or societal benefits. Even if some of the subsequent steps required are more difficult and expensive,
their costs are virtually certain to be smaller than the costs of the climate-change damages these measures would avert.
Two starkly different futures diverge from this time forward. Society’s current path leads to increasingly serious climate-change impacts, including potentially catastrophic changes in climate that will compromise efforts to achieve development objectives where there
is poverty and will threaten standards of living where there is affluence. The other path leads to a transformation in the way society
generates and uses energy as well as to improvements in management of the world’s soils and forests. This path will reduce dangerous
emissions, create economic opportunity, help to reduce global poverty, reduce degradation of and carbon emissions from ecosystems,
and contribute to the sustainability of productive economies capable of meeting the needs of the world’s growing population.
Humanity must act collectively and urgently to change course through
leadership at all levels of society. There is no more time for delay.
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE:
AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE
5
UNITED NATIONS–SIGMA XI SCIENTIFIC EXPERT GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Authors, Reviewers, and Contributors
Coordinating Lead Authors
Rosina Bierbaum, Professor and Dean, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, United States
John P. Holdren, Director, The Woods Hole Research Center, and Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy, Harvard
University, United States
Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, Climate Institute, United States
Richard H. Moss, Senior Director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation and University of Maryland, United States
Peter H. Raven, President, Missouri Botanical Garden, United States
Lead Authors
Special Technical Advisor
Ulisses Confalonieri, Professor, National School of Public Health
and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
James Edmonds, Senior Staff Scientist, Joint Global Change Research
Institute at University of Maryland College Park, United States
Jacques “Jack” Dubois, Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re,
United States
Research Assistant
Alexander Ginzburg, Deputy Director, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation
Nathan L. Engle, School of Natural Resources and Environment,
University of Michigan, United States
Peter H. Gleick, President, Pacific Institute for Studies in
Development, Environment, and Security, United States
Reviewers at the AAAS Annual Meeting, 2006
Zara Khatib, Technology Marketing Manager, Shell International, United
Arab Emirates
Anthony Arguez, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, United States
Janice Lough, Principal Research Scientist, Australian Institute of
Marine Science, Australia
Sally Benson, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States
Ann Bartuska, USDA Forest Service, United States
Ajay Mathur, President, Senergy Global Private Limited, India
Norm Christensen, Duke University, United States
Mario Molina, Professor, University of California, San Diego, United
States, and President, Mario Molina Center, Mexico
William Clark, Harvard University, United States
Keto Mshigeni, Vice Chancellor, The Hubert Kairuki Memorial
University, Tanzania
Gladys Cotter, US Geological Survey, United States
Nebojsa “Naki” Nakicenovic, Professor, Vienna University of
Technology, and Program Leader, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis, Austria
Geoff Hawtin, Global Crop Diversity Trust, United Kingdom
Taikan Oki, Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The University
of Tokyo, Japan
Edward Miles, University of Washington, United States
Hans Joachim “John” Schellnhuber, Professor and Director,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Richard Thomas, International Center for Agricultural Research in
the Dry Areas, Syrian Arab Republic
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Professor, Central European University, Hungary
Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States
Robert Corell, The Heinz Center, United States
Partha Dasgupta, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Daniel Kammen, University of California, Berkeley, United States
Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Cornell University, United States
Sigma Xi Sponsors
Special thanks to:
James F. Baur
Philip B. Carter (since September 2006)
Patrick D. Sculley (until September 2006)
Jeff Bielicki and Dave Thompson, Harvard University
Ko Barrett, NOAA
John Rintoul, Sigma Xi
Cosy Simon, Swiss Re
Naja Davis, David Harwood, Ryan Hobert,
Katherine Miller, and Tripta Singh,
UN Foundation
Lelani Arris, Copy Editor
UN Liaisons
JoAnne DiSano, Peter Mak, Walter Shearer,
Division for Sustainable Development, Department of
Economic & Social Affairs, United Nations
www.confrontingclimatechange.org
9/15/2016
OUTLINE
1. Introductions
2. Requirements for a Habitable Planet
3. Climate Change Signatures
4. Global Radiation Balance
5. Atmospheric Processes and Models
6. Future Action – What can we do?
7. Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change
References
1. Introduction
OLLI – Our Changing Climate
1:15‐2:45 on Wednesdays
Sept. 14 ‐‐ Dr. Russell Philbrick, Global Scale of Climate Change
Sept. 21 ‐‐ Dr. Lonnie Liethhold, Historical Perspective of Climate Change
Sept. 28 ‐‐ Dr. Anantha Aiyyer, Impact of Climate Change on Significant Weather Events
Oct. 5 ‐‐ Dr. Dave DeMaster, Climate Change and High Latitudes
Oct. 12 ‐‐ Dr. William Kinsella,
Climate Changes and the Future of Society
Oct. 19 ‐‐ Dr. Philbrick and Others, Climate Change Action Path and Wrap‐up Session.
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OLLI Lecture – September 14, 2016
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE
Prof. Russell Philbrick
MEAS Department, NCSU
Physics Department, NCSU
Emeritus Professor, Penn State University
Background of Lecturer:
NCSU Physics: BS (62), MS (64), PhD (66)
1966-1987 - AF Cambridge Research Lab, Hanscom AFB, MA
1988-2009 - Penn State University, Electrical Engineering Dept.
2009-present - NCSU
Recommended Readings:
Jared Diamond, Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,
Penguin Books 2005
Thomas Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, NY 2008
IPCC 2013 Vol 1-The Physical Science Basis - FINAL
2013/2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Reports,
IPCC Vol 1 2013 Report (1552 pg, 375 MB), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
IPCC Vol 2 2014 Report, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/
The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research
Program, doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2.
2014 US National Climate Assessment, 3rd Report,
NCA3, (814 pg, 174 MB) http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads
CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNIMANAGEABE
AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE, Executive Summary, prepared by
The Scientific Research Society, Sigma Xi, for the United Nations
Foundation, 2007, www.conftontingclimatechance.org
National Academy of Science Reports (49 identified on Climate Change)
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2. Requirements for a Habitable Planet
Our Blue
Planet
What are factors
that have allowed lifeforms to develop on this planet?
Life on Planet Earth –
Supporting and Sustaining Conditions
Long‐lifetime star (late development of our galaxy)
Close enough to galaxy center to have heavy isotopic masses
Far enough from galaxy center for low energetic radiation levels
Distance from Sun in life sustaining region (temperature)
Atmosphere that supports life forms – water, oxygen
Atmosphere removes (cosmic rays, ‐radiation, X‐ray, UV)
Atmosphere protects against interplanetary dust and meteors
Magnetic field rigidity protects against energetic ionized particles
Water vapor transports latent heat, distributes energy to poles
Global radiation balance is controlled primarily by “greenhouse” gasses and the planetary albedo (and radiation from Sun)
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Habitable regions of our Milkyway galaxy are very limited
Scientific American, pg 63, October 2001.
Venus, Earth’s sister planet. (similar size, gravity, and bulk composition)
Venus has a run‐away greenhouse atmosphere.
Atmosphere at Surface*
Temperature 460oC
Pressure 93 bars
~96.5% Carbon dioxide
~3.5% Nitrogen
0.015% Sulfur dioxide
*Wikipedia
Venus is believed to have had water oceans, but these evaporated as the temperature rose. The water probably dissociated, and hydrogen was swept into interplanetary space. Our atmosphere is subject to non‐linear processes, which we do not know how to model to determine the tipping point. 4
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The basic question – Can scientific, political, corporate and public interests come together to provide solutions for societal issues?
This is not an acceptable alternative!
IBM Advertisement Websphere for Mankind – Back cover Discover Magazine September 2001.
The primordial atmosphere of Earth had no oxygen. Present 21% of O2 is due
to plant production by photosynthesis which produced oil and coal deposits.
Chemistry of Atmospheres, R.P. Wayne, Oxford Science Publication, 1991.
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3. Climate Change Signatures
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007
6
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Temperature and
CO2 Changes
Past and Projected Changes
Global Mean Sea Level Changes –
Measurements and Model Projections
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Oceans become
more acidic as
they absorb CO2
1958 – 320 ppm
2011 – 391 ppm
2016 – 400.33 ppm 8 Sept.
~2.5 ppm/yr
~2 ppm/yr
Mauna Loa Observatory
~1 ppm/yr
The oscillation follows the summer/winter conversion of CO2.
CO2
Chlorophyll
O2
8
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4. Radiation Balance
Sun Emission
Earth Emission
Visible Spectrum
Atmospheric
Transmission
9
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Ultraviolet Visible
Infrared
%A
%A
Water Molecule - Energy States
http://www.lsbu.ac.uk/water/images/v1.gif
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Vol 1, Climate Change 2013
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1367 W/m2 at Top of Atmosphere
Global Mean Radiative Balance
5. Atmospheric Processes and Models
GtC = Gigaton of
Carbon
= 1015 grams
= 3.67 GtCO2
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Ice Loss/Gain
2003 to 2012
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Temperature Change (1861‐1880 Average)
Compared with CO2 (Gigaton)
Emissions and Projections
PgC = GtC
14
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Measurements & Models for
Radiative Forcing
(W/m2) and Surface Temperature (oC)
15
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GtC = Giga tons of Carbon
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle4.html
We release 5.5 x 109 (billion) tons of carbon by burning fossil fuels each year.
From this, 3.3 x 109 tons goes into the atmosphere and the rest into the ocean.
Photosynthesis reaction 6CO2 + 6H2O → C6H12O6 + 6O2
National Earth Science Teachers Association
The yellow line marks the mid‐Pliocene shoreline when the global sea level was about 25 m higher, three million years ago.
American Scientist Vol 99, pg 232, 2011 16
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The Issues:
(1) Present CO2 levels are approaching 400 ppm (>500 ppm by 2050)
(2) Most scientists that have studied the problem agree that unacceptable
climate changes will have occurred by the time CO2 reaches 450 ppm
(3) Fossil fuels account for 80% of the world’s energy use
(4) Today energy relies on digging or pumping 7 billion tons of carbon
each year that is mostly input to the atmosphere
(5) Today the global input is ~ 7x109 tons per year and at present rate of
growth that will be 14 billion tons per year by 2056
(6) US produces 25% of carbon emission with 5% of population
(7) Residential and commercial buildings account for > 60% of electric use
(8) Coal based synfuels add as much or more CO2 as a gasoline car
(9) Corn based biofuels add as much CO2 and may do more ecological
damage because of fertilizers
(10) A definite temperature increase is measured during the past 50 years
(20 of the hottest years on record occurred since 1980)
(11) US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol (reduce emission 7% below 1990 level)
(12) No simple single fix will help to avert the eventual possibility of a
“run-away greenhouse”
5. Future Action – What can we do?
Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to
Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006
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Each Wedge
Represents
1 Billion Tons
of CO2/Yr
Robert Socolow and
Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to
Keep Carbon in Check”
Sci. American, Sept. 2006
Require minimum of seven wedges to limit CO2 at survival level
(wedges only count if added use of technologies that have already been demonstrated)
# Wedges
1 – Lower birth rate to hold global population below 8 billion people in 2056
1 – Curtail the emissions of methane (CH4)
2 – Eliminate deforestation
1 – Wide spread use of synfuels with capture and storage of CO2
2 – Expand the number of nuclear power plants by factor of five to displace
conventional coal power plants
2 – Cut electricity use in building by half through use of super-efficient
lighting and appliances
1 – Industrial use of electricity more efficiently
1 – Increased efficiency of automobiles
1 – Efficiency in transportation (other than automobile)
1 – Capture and store the carbon emissions from the present coal power plants
1 – capture and store carbon from large natural gas power plants
-1 to -3 – 700 coal power plants (1000 MW) emit one wedge (a few thousand
such plants are presently expected to be built – natural gas plants
burn half as much carbon per unit of electricity)
Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006
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At what level will we experience irreversible changes?
Concept of several wedges to arrive at a solution.
Hold CO2 constant without choking economic growth.
2056 Goals
60 mpg car
cut electricity use in homes and buildings by half
carbon sequestering (capture and storage)
reduce coal use and increased green power production
increased alternative sources (solar cells, wind, waves)
What set of polices will result in saving seven wedges?
(a wedge represents 1 billion tons of carbon per year)
CO2 Reductions
Yeh, Sonia and David McCollum. "Optimizing Climate Mitigation Wedges for the Transportation
Sector." In STEPS Book: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis.
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Wind Power
Goal: 20% of US Power by 2030
Energy Sources
Smil, Global Energy, Am. Scientist, 99, p212, 2011
Improve efficiency in design,
construction, heating/cooling
systems, appliances, industrial
methods, and electrical
transmission.
Particularly, cleaner transportation
and generation of electrical energy.
Scientific American, September 2005
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CO2 is captured at Salah gas project in Algerian desert.
Compressed gas is injected into a brine deposit at 2 km depth –
the rate is 1/6 of that required for a 1,000 MW coal gasification
plant fitted for capture and storage.
Socolow, Can We Bury
Global Warming? Sc. Am.,
pg 49, July 2005
Population
Global Population Status and Projected Growth
Scientific American, September 2005
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7. Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change
The activities of man are changing the face of our
planet. The resources of our planet are stretched.
The quality of air, water and earth are deteriorating.
We must become better stewards of our Earth home!
A view of
fragile Earth
Population
Air
Water
Ocean
Land
Biodiversity
Energy
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm
Perspective –
Our universe has been here
about 14 billion years,
Our solar system formed
about 4 billion years ago,
Man has been walking this
planet about 4 million years,
Civilization’s roots for modern
society are about 2500 years old,
The industrial revolution to
produce our goods and services
began about 100 years ago.
Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000
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What can you do?
Become environment steward
Electricity, Water, Recycle
Improve use of energy resources
Use computer for paperless society
Plan for conservation
Consider the life cycle
Plan for resource preservation
Teach others, educate young & adult
Practice personal conservation
Be an example
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm
What can I do as an individual to conserve resources?
Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000
50 Simple Things You Can Do to Save Earth, Earth Works Press, 1991.
Use low phosphate detergent
Use low flow faucet aerator
Reuse containers
End junk mail
Use unbleached paper
Use sponge or cloth to wipe spills
Use less heating and AC
Reduce water use in toilet
Low-flow showerhead
Shower-soap-shower (30-35%)
Water flow – brush teeth – water
Conserve electricity use
Insulate home
Reduce travel by car – use public
Recycle glass, plastic, metal, paper
Plant a tree (avg use is 7 per year)
Eat low on food chain
Teach others to conserve
Support conservation with your pen
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EACH OF US
CAN MAKE A
DIFFERENCE!
Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000
References
Jared Diamond, “Collapse – How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” Penguin Books Ltd, London, 2005
Thomas L. Friedman, “Hot , Flat, and Crowded” Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, New York, 2008
IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007, and IPCC 5th Assessment, 2013-14
IBM Advertisement Websphere for Mankind – Back cover Discover Magazine September 2001.
Fusion Plasmas – http://www.plasma.org/photo-fusion.htm
NASA Photos - http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm
50 Simple Things You Can Do to Save Earth, Earth Works Press, 1991.
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter, National Research Council, 1998.
Technology and Environment – National Academy of Engineering, 1989.
Scientific American, June 2001, July 2001, October 2001, September 2005.
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming – National Academy Press, 1991.
Environmental Physics, Boeker and Grondelle, John Wiley & Sons, 1995.
Planet Earth, Cesare Emilliani, Cambridge University Press, 1995.
Chemistry of Atmospheres, R.P. Wayne, Oxford Science Publication, 1991.
Kwok, Ronold, and Norbert Untersteiner, “Thinning of Artic Sea Ice” Physics Today, April 2011
Energy’s Future Beyond Carbon, Scientific American, September 2006
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis.
World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar
Socolow, Can We Bury Global Warming? Sc. Am., 49, July 2005
Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and Beyond,
http://www.solar.udel.edu/pdf/SEIA%20Roadmap.pdf
Third National Climate Assessment, NCA3, 2014 http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads
Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding and Managing, Summary, 2007, www.conftontingclimatechance.org
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Climate change in Earth
History– a perspective on the
future
Dr. Lonnie Leithold
Department of Marine, Earth, and
Atmospheric Sciences
135 years of data
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The other CO2 problem– Ocean Acidification
26 years of data
Earth History
First modern humans (Homo sapiens
sapiens): 33,000 years ago (last 0.0007%)
First hominid fossils: about 7
million years old (Miocene Epoch)
Younger
Millions of
years ago
Time of “obvious life,” past ~600 million years
Formation of the planet, 4.6 billion years ago
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Many of us have a
sense that climate
has changed
How do we know?
What can we learn
from the past?
Climate in Earth History– Key
Points
We know a great deal about climate change
over Earth’s history based on numerous climate
“proxies”
The Earth’s past gives us important insights into
the impacts of climate change
When we look at the past, what stands out about
the present is the rate of climate change
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The Earth’s history “book”
Sedimentary strata in the Grand Canyon record over 1 billion years of history
Ocean and lake
sediments contain very
detailed records of past
environmental
conditions, including
climate
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Climate Proxies– Rock Types
Glacial tillite
Coal
An “evaporate”
mineral
Glaciers and glacial deposits
Glaciers are “rivers
of ice” that flow
under their own
weight
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Formation of glaciers
Glaciers form when snow
accumulates for a long time–
summer temperatures are
critical
As the snow is buried,
pressure causes the snow to
covert to small ice grains, and
eventually these ice grains
recrystallize to form glacial ice
How do we know about past glaciers?-Glacial erosion and deposition
Glaciers are very
effective at
eroding the rocks
over which they
flow
When they melt
back they leave
behind large
volumes of
sediment of all
sizes
6
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Glacial tills and tillites
Till is the term we use for “poorly sorted” sediment left
behind by glaciers when they melt
Glacial till in Minnesota, about 18,000 years old
7
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Tillite = Till that has been
“lithified”, turned to rock
More clues left behind by glaciers:
Ice rafted debris- Dropstones
Icebergs are
pieces of ice that
have broken off
glaciers and float
on lakes or the
ocean
Commonly
icebergs release
rocks that drop
into muddy
sediments below
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Ice-rafted debris-- dropstones
700 million year old dropstone from Virginia (!)
Climate Proxies-- Fossils
100 million year old breadfruit
leaf from Greenland
50 million year old pollen grains
9
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Evidence from fossil leaf “shape”
Plants are very
sensitive to
climate
Plants growing in
humid, tropical
areas have
leaves that have
smooth (“entire”)
margins and drip
tips
Evidence from fossil leaf “shape”
Plants growing
in temperate
climates have
more jagged or
“toothed”
margins
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Evidence from fossil leaves and pollen
A study of fossil leaves in North America provides
evidence for gradual cooling and drying of the climate,
especially between 30 and 40 million years ago
Climate Proxies– Chemical
clues
Isotopes are different forms of elements
(with variable numbers of neutrons)
Oxygen, for example, exists in three stable
forms: 16O, 17O, 18O
16O
17O
18O
99.76%
0.04%
0.20%
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Isotope “Behavior”
Molecules with different isotopes of a particular element
have different masses and bonding characteristics.
The bond involving the light isotope is usually weaker
and easier to break.
As a result, the molecules with different isotopes behave
a little bit differently during chemical reactions, as well as
during such physical processes as evaporation and
condensation.
Two water
molecules
18O
H
H
heavier
16O
H
H
lighter
Foraminifera (”forams”):
one-celled marine organisms
with shells constructed
of calcium carbonate CaCO3
Shells are sand-sized and are
abundant in sediments from the
deep sea
We can measure the proportions
of the most abundant O isotopes,
16O and 18O, in their shells
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Climate signals from foraminifera
shells in deep sea deposits– 18O/16O
The temperature of the water has an effect on
the proportion of oxygen isotopes that the
forams use to make their shells—if it is colder,
they tend to use relatively more 18O
The melting and freezing of glaciers has an even
larger effect on the proportion of 18O and 16O in
seawater, and hence in foram shells
Foram shell
composed of
CaCO3
Evidence from the chemistry of
foraminifera shells
When glaciers form,
they lock away 16O,
on land and the
oceans become
relatively enriched in
18O
During glacial times,
therefore, forams will
have shells that are
relatively rich in 18O
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18O/16O
in
forams from
Cenozoic
sediments
(past 65.5
million years)
More 18O = colder
ocean temperatures and
more ice on Earth
Zachos et al. 2001, Science
We will use these
data to look at
climate change at
three different time
scales
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Green House vs Ice House Climates– 100
million year cycles
Greenhouse
Earth
Silurian (430 Ma)
Cretaceous (100 Ma)
Times when
continents were
moving rapidly
apart were
times of rapid
seafloor
spreading, high
volcanic activity
and high
atmospheric
CO2 content
There was little
or no glacial ice
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Permian
(280 Ma)
Pleistocene
(50 Ka)
Icehouse
Earth
Times of when
“supercontinents”
were nearly or
totally assembled
are times of slow
seafloor
spreading, lower
volcanic activity
and atmospheric
CO2 levels, and
large continental
ice caps
Cenozoic Climate– The past 65.5
million years
During the Cenozoic Era, the Earth has undergone a
dramatic cooling of climate– a transition from Greenhouse
to Icehouse
The cooling reached its maximum during the Pleistocene
Epoch, beginning 1.8 million years ago
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Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
of the past 1.8 million years
Glacial-Interglacial Cycles of the
past 1.8 million years
The advances and
retreats of glaciers
in the late
Cenozoic are
related to
variations in the
earth’s orbit
(Milankovitch
cycles)
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Last Glacial Maximum
The last glacial
peak was about
18,000 years ago,
at which time
Canada and the
upper U.S. were
covered with ice
The current interglacial
In the normal course of
Milankovitch cycles, apart
from any warming induced
by humans, the present
interglacial should give
way within about 2,000
years to a gradual, uneven
decline in global
temperature and a major
ice age about 23,000
years from now.
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The man-made superinterglacial
Global temperatures
are projected to rise by
2.5 to 5.0 degrees C
by the year 2300
How does this compare to
climate changes of the past?
We know that the
Earth’s mean
temperature has
decreased by about
5 degrees C in the
past 50 million
years
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How does this compare to
climate changes of the past?
Between 18,000
and 7000 years
ago, orbital
changes melted
the ice sheet in
the northern
Hemisphere
How does this compare to
climate changes of the past?
In this time period,
global temperature
warmed by 4-6
degrees C
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How does this compare to
climate changes of the past?
Cause of change
Tectonics
(Greenhouse/Icehouse)
Orbital variations
Anthropogenic
greenhouse gases
Rate of change
(degrees C per 100 yr)
0.00001 (1/100,000)
0.05
0.83 to 1.66
(17-33X the rate of change due to
orbital variations)
Do we have any
analogues from
Earth History?– the
closest is an event
called the
Paleocene-Eocene
Thermal Maximum
(PETM) that
occurred about 56
million years ago
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The Paleocene-Eocene
Thermal Maximum (PETM)
3000 Pg (petagram =
1015 g) of carbon input
to the environment
over 4000-6000 years
Carbon isotopes point
to release of frozen
biologically-produced
gas (methane)
1 Pg= 1.1 billion US tons
Possible sources are frozen methane
hydrates from the oceans and/or
permafrost
Possible sources are frozen methane
hydrates from the oceans and/or permafrost
22
10/17/2016
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal
Maximum (PETM)
Led to global warming of 6oC
Caused dissolution of carbonate shells in
the deep sea
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal
Maximum (PETM)
Other impacts:
 Increased intensity of hydrologic cycle (storms,
flooding) and erosion rates
 Migrations and turnover of many terrestrial and marine
organisms, including mammals and plants
 Major extinction of bottom-dwelling forams, but the
extinction rate in general is minor compared to other
times in Earth history (such as the end of the
Cretaceous Period)
23
10/17/2016
Comparison of the PETM to the
Anthropocene
PETM
Anthropocene
Carbon released or
potentially released, in
Petagrams (Pg)
~3000
Fossil fuel reserves:
1000-2000
Annual rate of carbon
release
1.1 Pg
10 Pg in 2014
pH drop in surface
ocean waters
- 0.4 total (over 40006000 years)
-0.1 (-0.3 by end of
century)
Fossil fuel resources:
3000-13,500
Reserves = technically and economically
ready to be produced
1 Pg= 1.1 billion US tons
Resources = total amount estimated to be “in
the ground”
24
10/17/2016
Climate in Earth History– Key
Points
We know a great deal about climate change
over Earth’s history based on numerous climate
“proxies”
The Earth’s past gives us important insights into
the impacts of rapid climate change
When we look at the past, what stands out about
the present is the rate of climate change
Uncharted
Territory
Ahead
25
10/31/2016
Climate Change from the Marine
Perspective: Impacts and Signals from
High Latitudes
Dr. Dave DeMaster
Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
North Carolina State University
October 5th, 2016
Climate Change Themes Discussed Today
- CO2 in the Atmosphere (Past and Present)
- Global Temperature Changes through Time:
Natural and Anthropogenic
- The Carbon Cycle: Forcing and Budgets
- Ocean Acidification
- Impacts of Climate Change in High Latitudes
* Sea Ice Abundance and Sea Ice Formation
* Ocean Circulation and Climate Change
* Sea Level Rise and Climate Change
* Melting of Continental Ice Sheets
- Climate Change Impacts Closer to Home: North Carolina
- The latest Global Climate Change Agreement: The Paris
Agreement
- Counteracting Climate Change: What you can do.
1
10/31/2016
There is Some Urgency in Taking
Action to Limit Green House Gas
Emissions and Limit Climate Change
Remaining Supplies of Fossil Fuels
Oil
Nat. Gas
Coal
40 Years
80 Years
1000 Years
Renewables:
13% of total power
(19% of electricity generation)
Nuclear:
15% of total power
Fossil Fuel:
>70% of total power
The Ice Core Record:
(A Geological Time Perspective of Atmospheric CO2)
Drilling at Vostoc, Antarctica
2
10/31/2016
GlacialInterglacial
Temperature
changes
correspond to
~4-5 degrees C
in global
temperature
change.
The Ice Core Record Shows a Clear Correlation between CO2
Content of the Atmosphere and High-Latitude Temperature.
The Earth Has Performed the Greenhouse Experiment for Us,
Dozens of Times (although Rush Limbaugh won’t admit it)!!!
Natural versus
Anthropogenic
changes in the
carbon dioxide
content of the
atmosphere.
3
10/31/2016
2-3
miles
thick
The World Was
Very Different
18,000 y ago When
Global
Temperatures
Were Just 4-5
degrees C colder.
How Much Will it
Change, When the
Earth is 3-4
Degrees Warmer in
the next 50-100
years?
How Well Do We Understand the Processes Causing Climate Change?
Pretty
well,
especially
with
regard to
CO2
forcing!
IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Figure TS.5
Figure TS.5
4
10/31/2016
How Have
Global
Temperatures
Varied Over
the Past 100
to 1000 years?
Remember Al Gore and “Inconvenient Truth”?
Most of the
temperature
increase since
the late 1800’s
was coming out
of a Little Ice
Age (not human
induced)
Why Do Scientists Believe that Humankind has Contributed
to Global Warming? When did this first start to occur?
BOTTOM
LINE…
most
warming
in recent
decades
is due to
people!
Grey = model
Red = data
We must
incorporate
both natural
and
anthropogenic
forcing to
match the
observed
changes in
Temperature
5
10/31/2016
Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle
Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities,
averaged globally for the decade 2005–2014 (GtCO2/yr)
The Global
Carbon Project
is the best
resource to get
up-to-date
information on
the global
carbon cycle
and climate
change. It’s
website is:
www.globalcarb
onproject.org
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
Global carbon budget
The carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by
the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
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10/31/2016
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Sources
and Sinks
for CO2 in
the
Atmosphere
.
Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
The remaining carbon quota for 66% chance <2°C
The total remaining emissions from 2014 to keep global average temperature
change below 2°C (900GtCO2) will be used in ~20 years at current emission rates.
Likely emissions (past
and future) necessary
to have a 66% chance of
keeping the global
temperature change
<2oC (as a result of
human activity).
Grey: Total quota for 2°C. Green: Removed from quota. Blue: remaining quota.
With projected 2015 emissions, this remaining quota drops to 865 Gt CO2
Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
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10/31/2016
Breakdown of global emissions by country
Emissions from Annex B countries have slightly declined since 1990
Emissions from non-Annex B countries have increased rapidly in the last decade
Which
countries (past
and present)
have emitted
most of the CO2
to the
atmosphere?
USA, you are
the world leader
(cumulatively)!
Annex B countries had emission commitments in the Kyoto Protocol (excluding Canada and USA)
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
Total global emissions by source
Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950
What is the
source of the
CO2 in the
atmosphere?
A combination
of coal, oil and
natural gas.
Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring
Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
8
10/31/2016
of Anthropogenic
CO2 Emissions
(2005-2014)
FateFate
of anthropogenic
CO2 emissions
(2005-2014
average)
33.0±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%
16.0±0.4 GtCO2/yr
44%
Atmospheric Accumulation
Burning Fossil Fuels
Sources
Land-Use Change
Partitioning
9.5±2.9 GtCO2/yr
26%
Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components
Land Sink (by difference)
30%
10.9±1.8 GtCO2/yr
3.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%
Oceanic Uptake
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
Changes in the budget over time
The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions, but climate change will affect
carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere
Sources
Data: GCP
Sinks
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
9
10/31/2016
Uptake of CO2 by the Ocean comes at a cost:
Ocean Acidification
The causes of Ocean Acidification and Global Climate Change are the
same! Increased addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and
ocean. The lower the pH the more acidic the water!
10
10/31/2016
Ocean Acidification makes it
much harder for these CaCO3
biota to make their hard parts
(shells and skeletons).
C
O
C
C
O
L
I
T
H
(10 um)
B
I
V
A
L
V
E
S
(600 um)
F
O
R
A
M
C
O
R
A
L
Interested in Any Further Reading on Ocean
Acidification?
The references for two of the best articles are:
Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem
Annual Review of Marine Science
Vol. 1: 169-192 (Volume publication date
January 2009)
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834
11
10/31/2016
Predicted
Temperature
Changes
from
Doubling
Atmospheric
CO2 Levels
Warming in the
future is
predicted to be
most extensive
during winter
in the high
latitudes!
Sea Ice in the Arctic
is Disappearing at
an Alarming Rate!
Arctic sea ice cover
at record low
updated 3:20 p.m. EDT, Tue
September 11, 2007 CNN
BOULDER, Colorado (CNN) -- Ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, long held to be an
early warning of a changing climate, has shattered the all-time low record this
summer, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in
Boulder. It is possible that Arctic sea ice could decline even further this year
before the onset of winter.
Using satellite data and imagery, NSIDC now estimates the Arctic ice pack
covers 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles) -- equal to just
less than half the size of the United States. This figure is about 20 percent less
than the previous all-time low record of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05
million square miles) set in September 2005. Most researchers had anticipated
that the complete disappearance of the Arctic ice pack during summer months
would happen after the year 2070, he said, but now, "losing summer sea ice cover
by 2030 is not unreasonable."
12
10/31/2016
In Fact, Arctic Sea Ice is
Melting Faster than the
Global Warming Models
Predict!!!
This figure illustrates the extent to which Arctic sea ice is melting faster than projected by
computer models. The dotted line represents the average rate of melting indicated by
computer models, with the blue area indicating the spread among the different models
(shown as plus/minus one standard deviation). The red line shows the actual rate of Arctic
ice loss based on observations. The observations have been particularly accurate since
1979 because of new satellite technology. (Illustration by Steve Deyo, ©UCAR).
In Addition to Sea Ice
Melting, Some of the
Polar Ice Caps Are
Beginning to Show
Signs of Melting
Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet descending into a moulin. The moulin is a nearly vertical
shaft worn in the glacier by surface water, which carries the water to the base of the ice sheet and
then on to the ocean. (Photo courtesy of Roger Braithwaite and Jay Zwally.)
13
10/31/2016
Bottom Water Formation Occurs in Areas of Sea Ice
Formation (such as the North Atlantic Ocean and the
Antarctic Weddell Sea).
Diminished Sea Ice
Production (as a
result of global
warming) may
change the heat
transport
pathways for the
planet!
As both sea ice and ice shelves diminish, less bottom water formation
occurs, which may affect the global thermohaline circulation of the ocean.
This conveyor belt brings warm surface water to Europe (in our Gulf
Stream), so less bottom water formation may affect temperatures in
Europe.
Is There Any Evidence That Bottom Water Formation
and Climate Change May Be Correlated?
13,000 years ago a massive ice sheet covering Canada
melted as the climate warmed. This released lots of
freshwater to the North Atlantic, which decreased bottom
water formation (and the “conveyor belt”), which led to
several thousand years (Younger Dryas) of cooling in Europe.
14
10/31/2016
Another Serious Ramification of Global Warming is
Sea Level Rise!
IPCC
Report, 2012
Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate
how much the sea level will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much
ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica. In early drafts, scientists predicted a
sea level rise of no more than 58 centimeters (23 inches) by 2100, but that does
not include the polar ice sheet melts, which recently show signs of melting.
What Happens to Sea Level if Greenland and
the Antarctic Ice Sheets Melt?
Continental Ice Sheet
Equivalent Sea Level Rise
Greenland Ice Sheet
5 meters
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
6 meters
East Antarctic Ice Sheet
70 meters
Result: Raleigh becomes ocean-front property!!
Even if 1-3% of this ice
melts, it will have a
significant impact on
sea level!
15
10/31/2016
How Sensitive Are We Here
in North Carolina to Sea
Level Rise? --Very High!
Hurricane Dennis
Other Evidence of Climate Change Here in the Carolinas!
From the Raleigh News and Observer: January 31st, 2012 --
One day of warm or cold does not provide good
evidence of a long-term trend, such as climate.
However, decadal changes in agriculture (and
temperature) are good integrators of the global
warming process.
16
10/31/2016
In the Antarctic (90% of the World’s Ice), What Ice
Sheet is the Most Vulnerable to Global Warming?
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (corresponding to 6 m of sea
level rise) is surrounded by warming waters. The Antarctic
Peninsula is experiencing some of the most rapid warming
on the planet! The proverbial “Canary in the Coal Mine”!
Recent Breakup
of Antarctic Ice
Shelves
17
10/31/2016
Why is the Breakup of Antarctic Ice Shelves
Such a Big Concern?
The big concern about
Antarctic ice shelves
melting is that they may
be holding the
continental ice sheets
back from moving to the
ocean, where they may
experience warmer
temperatures and
increased melting
(leading to higher rates
of sea level rise).
Dr. D’s
Research
18
10/31/2016
Ice shelves, especially those on the Antarctic Peninsula, are
exhibiting increased calving and melting. This figure shows
the location of all of the ice shelves surrounding Antarctica.
Note that the ones that are melting, as well as the biggest
ones, are associated with the West Antarctic regime, which is
experiencing rapid warming as a result of Climate Change.
(Since 1992 Conv. Cl. Change) COP21/CMP11 (Kyoto
1997)
The Paris
Agreement
For the USA, who was
the only industrialized
country in the world
that didn’t ratify the
Kyoto Protocol, THIS IS
A BIG DEAL!!!
Adopted by consensus on
12 December 2015
Signed 22 April 2016 (Earth
Day) in New York City
Status: Not in Effect Yet!
19
10/31/2016
The Paris Agreement is an agreement within the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with
greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting
in the year 2020. The language of the agreement was negotiated by
representatives of 195 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties of
the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015.
The Aims of the Paris Agreement are:
1) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well
below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit
the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,
recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts
of climate change; (2) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse
impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low
greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not
threaten food production; (3) Making finance flows consistent with a
pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient
development. "Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of
greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible“. The Paris deal
is the world’s first comprehensive climate agreement (sort of).
The Paris Agreement: What People Want
A Global Perspective
20
10/31/2016
The Paris Agreement: Limitations
Nationally determined contributions and their limits
The contribution that each individual country should make in order
to achieve the worldwide goal are determined by all countries
individually and called "nationally determined contributions"
(NDCs). Article 3 requires them to be "ambitious", and should be
reported every five years. Each further ambition should be more
ambitious than the previous one, known as the principle of
'progression'. The Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions pledged during the 2015 Climate Change
Conference as the initial Nationally determined contribution.
However the 'contributions' themselves are not binding as a
matter of international law, as they lack the specificity,
normative character, or obligatory language necessary to
create binding norms. Furthermore, there will be no mechanism
to force a country to set a target in their NDC by a specific date
and no enforcement if a set target in an NDC is not met. There
will be only a "name and shame" system.
2015 Paris Agreement: Status
Currently, there are 191 signatories to the Paris Agreement. Of these, 62
Parties to the Convention have also deposited their instruments of
ratification, acceptance or approval accounting in total for 52 % of the
total global greenhouse gas emissions.
Party or
signatory
Percentage of
greenhouse
gases for
ratification
Date of
signature
Brazil
2.48%
22 April 2016
China
20.09%
22 April 2016
India
4.10%
22 April 2016
United States
17.89%
22 April 2016
Marshall Islands
0.00%
22 April 2016
Total
98.20%
191
Date of deposit
of instruments of
Ratification
or
Accession
21 September
2016
3 September
2016
2 October 2016
3 September
2016
22 April 2016
62 (52% of global
emissions)
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10/31/2016
The emission pledges (INDCs) of the top-4 emitters
Indirectly, the USA and
the other 3 top
emitters are asking
the rest of the world to
stop emitting CO2 by
2030 or let the world
experience
temperature changes
of 2oC or more.
The emission pledges from the US, EU, China, and India leave little room
for other countries to emit in a 2°C emission budget (66% chance)
Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
What Can We Do To Counteract Global
Warming and Ocean Acidification?
• Stay informed about the scientific advances in global climate
change and ocean acidification science (i.e., this course).
• Don’t believe everything that you hear (e.g., D. Trump) or you
read (e.g., Michael Crichton’s State of Fear). Critical Thinking!
• Burning of all fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere (coal is the least efficient).
• Ethanol in our gasoline is better than burning pure gasoline (but
it still adds CO2 to the atmosphere).
• Support non-carbon emitting forms of energy production such
as photo-voltaic/solar, wind energy, or nuclear power.
• Be conscious of your individual carbon foot print and try to keep
it to a minimum (e.g., walk or bike more, eat local food).
• Be careful of new fads in fossil fuel energy production (e.g.,
“fracking” and “clean coal” (there is lots of spin out there).
22
10/31/2016
These High-Latitude
Ecosystems Are Quite
Fragile – But They
Accommodate Some of the
Most Spectacular Fauna on
the Planet.
Go Wolfpack!
23
10/30/2016
Speaking of Climate Change:
Social, Political,
and Cultural Dimensions
William Kinsella
Department of Communication
North Carolina State University
[email protected]
Our Changing Climate
Osher Lifelong Learning Institute
12 October 2016
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
1
[email protected]
Slides and handout prepared for limited distribution in connection
with NCSU-Osher Lifelong Learning Institute class, Fall 2016
1
10/30/2016
Clarification: No Crystal Ball
• “What do the climate changes portend
for future society, in the days of our
children and grandchildren?”
• “It’s tough to make predictions, especially
about the future.” — attributed to Yogi Berra
• “Path dependence” and “lock-in”
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
3
Overview
A social science & humanities perspective
A communication & rhetoric perspective
Living in a risk society
Anthropogenic climate change: the
Anthropocene epoch?
Climate change as a societal challenge
Climate change as a political challenge
Climate change as a communication challenge
Closing thoughts
Discussion
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
4
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10/30/2016
A Social Science
and Humanities Perspective
• Natural sciences: law-governed world,
prediction, control, positive knowledge
• Social sciences: rule-governed world (at
best), understanding, improvement,
discursive/narrative knowledge
• Humanities: poetic world, connection,
empathy, emotive/aesthetic/narrative
knowledge
• Interdisciplinarity: collaboration across
these boundaries
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
5
A Communication
and Rhetoric Perspective
• Models of communication:
-- information transfer (a limited model)
-- cooperation, negotiation, coordination
-- dialog
-- creates knowledge
-- makes a social (and material!) world
• Rhetoric, not “mere rhetoric”
• Rhetoric as basis for action under conditions
of uncertainty
• All communication is political communication
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
6
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10/30/2016
Rhetoric and Democracy
“The good [citizen] speaking well” (Quintillian)
The Raging Grannies, Step It Up climate action event
Raleigh, NC, 14 April 2007 (image: W. J. Kinsella)
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
7
Living in a Risk Society
“Risk Society” and “Reflexive Modernity” (Beck)
• Historical organizing principle for society:
how to create and distribute resources
(production, distribution, consumption)
• New organizing principle: how to manage
and distribute risks
• Concept of “risk” is a modern invention,
parallels rise of industrial society
• Reflexive, self-produced risks require
societal reflexivity
• Climate change as “emancipatory catastrophe”?
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
8
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10/30/2016
The Anthropocene Epoch?
“Considering . . . [the] major and still growing
impacts of human activities on earth and
atmosphere…it seems to us more than
appropriate to emphasize the central role
of mankind in geology and ecology by
proposing to use the term ‘anthropocene’
for the current geological epoch.”
— Crutzen & Stoermer (2000)
“The Anthropocene could be said to have
started in the latter part of the eighteenth
century, when [later] analyses of air trapped
in polar ice showed the beginning of growing
global concentrations of carbon dioxide and
methane. This date also happens to coincide
with James Watt’s design of the steam engine in 1784.”
— Crutzen (2002)
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
9
The Anthropocene Epoch?
“Official recognition of the concept would invite crossdisciplinary science. And it would encourage a mindset that
will be important not only to fully understand the
transformation now occurring but to take action to control
it.…Humans may yet ensure that these early years of the
Anthropocene are a geological glitch and not just a prelude
to a far more severe
disruption. But the
first step is to
recognize, as the
term Anthropocene
invites us to do, that
we are in the driver’s
seat.” (Nature, 2011,
p. 254)
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
10
5
10/30/2016
Path Dependence and “Lock-in”
Past
Wood
Present
Future
Coal/Oil/Gas
?
Energy Technologies
Coal
Transportation Technologies
Horse Steam engine
Agrarian
Petroleum
Social Organization
Urban
Suburban
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
?
?
11
Path Dependence and “Lock-in”
Past
Present
Anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic
Future
uncertainties
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
12
6
10/30/2016
Narratives of Climate Change
Stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining,
depression, acceptance (Kubler-Ross, 1969)
• Individual vs. collective psychology
• Individuals at different stages re: climate
change
•
Seidel & Keyes (1983), Can we
delay a greenhouse warming?
Schneider (1989),
Global warming
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
13
Narratives of Climate Change
Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU)
• Manufactured uncertainty (Oreskes & Conway)
• Consensus vs. unanimity
• Equal time journalism
• Deploying contrarian
scientists
• Details vs. big picture
• Cherry-picking examples
• Weather vs. climate
• Discrediting the messenger
(e.g., “Climategate”)
Supertramp, “Crisis? What crisis?” (1975)
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
14
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10/30/2016
Narratives of Climate Change
Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU)
from Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern
synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer.
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
15
Narratives of Climate Change
Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU)
from Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern
synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer.
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
16
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10/30/2016
Narratives of Climate Change
Anger at (fill in the blank)
Capitalism? Mass consumption?
Overpopulation? Industry?
Technology? Government?
Underregulation? Overregulation?
Wealthy nations? Populous nations?
Aspiring nations?
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
17
Total and Per
Capita CO2
Emissions,
2013
Source: European
Commission Emissions
Database for Global
Atmospheric Research
(EDGAR)
http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
18
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10/30/2016
Climate Change as a Societal and
Cultural Challenge
• Global problem requires global collaboration
• Cultural differences
-- individualistic vs. communalistic cultures
-- concepts of progress, democracy,
capitalism, freedom, enterprise
-- concepts of community
-- concepts of human/nature relationship
• Developmental differences
-- population growth
-- energy choices
• Environmental and energy justice
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
19
Climate Change as Political
Challenge: US National Level
Energy choices (partial list)
• Conservation and efficiency (green design, efficiency
•
•
•
•
•
standards, grid improvements, smart grid)
Renewable sources:
-- wind (onshore and offshore)
-- solar (thermal and photovoltaic)
-- hydro, tidal, wave, ocean thermal, geothermal
Improved fossil fuels? (natural gas, carbon capture &
storage)
Biofuels (natural and synthetic; food/fuel tradeoffs)
Nuclear (cost, safety, waste storage and disposal,
proliferation)
Role of integrated energy policy and planning
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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Climate Wedges
(Pacala & Socolow 2004)
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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Climate Change as Political
Challenge: US National Level
Incentives (partial list):
•
•
•
•
technology research & development subsidies
construction subsidies
loan guarantees
production tax credits
Mandates (partial list)
• emissions trading (e.g., cap & trade)
• carbon tax
• renewable energy portfolios
• EPA Clean Power Plan (implementation on
hold pending judicial review as of February
2016)
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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•
•
•
•
Climate Change as Political
Challenge: US National Level
Tensions with free-market philosophies
Economic environment
Politics of government scale and scope
Anti-regulation discourse and forms of
regulation
• Polarization of political and public
discourse
• Politicization of climate science
• Role of political leadership
• National / state / local levels
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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Climate Change as Political
Challenge: International Level
• International research collaboration
(e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC, created 1988)
• 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and Conference of the
Parties (COP)
• Forging international consensus
• Roles and expectations: Developed vs.
developing nations, climate equity and
justice
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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Climate Change as Political
Challenge: International Level
Paris agreement (COP-21)
• 195 party consensus December 2015
(of 193 UN states)
• 191 signatures, 77 ratified, as of October 2016
• Effective 4 November 2016
• Limits temperature increase to 1.5-2o above
pre-industrial levels
• Balances climate response with food production
• Encourages global finance measures
• Seeks to pass global peak as soon as possible
• “Nationally-determined contributions”
• Allows international collaboration and pooling
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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Climate Change as
Communication Challenge
• Public opinion
-- Yale/GMU Climate Project
• Media framing and agenda setting
• Communicating complexity
• Science & technology communication
• Risk communication
• Fostering public deliberation and debate
• Forums and venues for public debate
• Fostering agreement and action (is consensus
possible?)
• Diverse cultural values and narratives
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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Closing Thoughts
• Climate change is urgent—requires action
• Time has not (yet) run out
• Some actions require broad
agreement, others do not
• Problem requires robust
public conversation
↑ source: https://www.co2.earth/
• Actions needed at
individual, community,
national, and global levels
• Global climate change
 interdependence
and shared responsibility
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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References
• Beck, U. (1992). Risk society: Towards a new modernity. London: Sage.
• Carbon brief (2016). https://www.carbonbrief.org/anthropocene-journey-to-new-geologicalepoch
• CO2earth. https://www.co2.earth/
• Crutzen, P. J. (2002). Geology of mankind,” Nature, Jan 3, p. 23.
• Crutzen. P. J., & Stoermer, E. F. (2000). The Anthropocene.
International GeosphereBiosphere Programme Newsletter, 41, p. 17.
• European Commission Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)
http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
• Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume
1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer.
• Kubler-Ross, E. (1969). On death and dying. New York: Macmillan.
• Nature (2011). The human epoch [editorial]. Nature, 473, p. 254.
• Oreskes N., Conway E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt. New York: Bloomsbury.
• Pacala, S., & Socolow, R. (2004). Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for
the next 50 years with current technologies. Science, 13 August, 968–972.
• Schneider, S. H. (1989), Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century?
Sierra Club Books.
• Seidel, S., & Keyes, D. (1983). Can we delay a greenhouse warming? Washington, DC:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
• Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/
Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate
Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected]
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10/18/2016
OUTLINE
Plan for Today’s Class
1. Key Points from Prior Classes
Climate Change – Temperature & CO2 Russell Philbrick
Historical Records – Beginning to Now Lonnie Leithold
Sever Weather – Climate Impacts
Anantha Aiyyer
High Latitudes – Ocean & Ice
Dave DeMaster
Future Society – Necessary Changes
Bill Kinsella
2. Radiative Processes and Temperature
3. Anthropogenic CO2 a primary cause
4. A Focus on the Models – Global Future Environment
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
5. Today, Future Action – What can we do?
Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change
Radiation Balance
2. Radiative Processes and Temperature
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007
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3. Anthropogenic CO2 is primary cause
We have crossed the 400 ppm
threshold and must work to return to it in the future.
September is normally ~3 ppm/yr
the minimum and it was >400 ppm.
~2 ppm/yr
~1 ppm/yr
The CO2 concentration will not go below 400 ppm again until after we get our act together.
Data through 9 Oct 2016
The oscillation follows the summer/winter conversion of CO2.
CO2
Chlorophyll
O2
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4. A Focus on the Models ‐ Global Future Environment
All of the modeling groups show similar
features in results
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Temperature Change (1861‐1880 Average)
Compared with CO2 (Gigaton)
Emissions and Projections
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
515 PgC in 2011
790 PgC is limit to stay below 2 degree rise
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Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing
(W/m2)
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
GtC = Gigaton of
Carbon
= 1015 grams
= 3.67 GtCO2
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
1 EJ = 1 x 1018 J
1 J = 2.78 x 10‐7 kW‐hr
1 EJ = 2.78 1011 kW‐hr
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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
and Extended
Concentration Pathways (ECPs)
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1015 Btu = 1 quad = 1.005 EJ
1 EJ = 1 x 1018 J
1 J = 2.78 x 10‐7 kW‐hr
1 EJ = 2.78 1011 kW‐hr
Units: G Giga 109 T Tara 1012 P Peta 1015 E Exa 1018
Pg = Gt 1015 grams = 109 tons Tara‐Watt‐ hours (TWh)
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PgC = GtC
Normal
Below Average
Above Average
Normal Standard 1951‐1980)
Extreme Heat
Compare with 2004‐2014
Northern Hemisphere Summer Maximum ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4
Global Temperature Anomaly (Co)
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Global Water Cycle Change 2016 to 2035
Evaporation
Evaporation ‐ Precipitation
Runoff
Soil Moisture
Specific Humidity
Relative Humidity
NASA Drought Prediction
https://youtu.be/8ADxIBm0QrA
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Have We Passed the Point of No Return on Climate Change?
While we may not yet have reached the “point of no return”—when no amount of cutbacks on greenhouse gas emissions will save us from potentially catastrophic global warming—climate scientists warn we may be getting awfully close. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution a century ago, the average global temperature has risen some 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Most climatologists agree that, while the warming to date is already causing environmental problems, another 0.4 degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature, representing a global average atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) of 450 parts per million (ppm), could set in motion unprecedented changes in global climate and a significant increase in the severity of natural disasters—and as such could represent the dreaded point of no return. Greenhouse gas cuts must begin soon or it could be too late to halt global warming
The new Paris Agreement (12 Dec 2015) declares a goal of holding the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius if possible, calls for greenhouse gas pollution to be balanced with greenhouse gas removals after 2050, implements a 5‐year cycle of reviews of national plans and actions starting soon as well as monitoring of those actions, and confirms at least $100 billion per year to help those countries most affected by climate changes. It also calls for scientists to weigh in on how exactly the world might aim for 1.5 degree C given that temperatures are already up 1 degree C in 2015—the hottest year on record. Global greenhouse gas pollution must peak "as soon as possible," the pact states. The first official global "stocktake" of efforts to meet all these ambitions of the Paris Pact will occur in 2023. Now, this Paris pact is a reality since 55 nations, representing >55 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution, accepted it (threshold 5 Oct 2016, in force 4 Nov 2016).
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Summary
• “Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause
further warming and changes in all components of the
climate system. Limiting climate change will require
substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions.”
• Changes are projected throughout all climate
components, in most cases exceeding natural variations
by far. Changes in AR5 are similar to those in AR4 for
similar scenarios.
• Every ton of CO2 causes about the same amount of
warming, no matter when and where it is emitted.
• To limit warming to likely less than 2oC as in RCP2.6
requires total emissions since preindustrial to be limited to
less than about 790 PgC (515 PgC were emitted by 2011).
5. Today, Future Action – What can we do?
Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change
What can you do, either as an individual or on a group, do to help reduce the threat and/or mitigate the consequence of climate change? We discussed several possible ideas at the end of the first class.
Now is the chance for each of you to put forward your ideas and possible commitments.
My list of ideas:
1. Write a letter to President Obama to encourage his support of and his pledge to work for reducing the threat of climate change after his term.
2. Work to educate students and friends about the importance of climate change.
3. Propose a couple of new ideas that I have for research to measure properties that could help explain the increase in severe storms and additional heating.
4. Try to convince deniers of the scientific facts of climate change.
5. Investigate ways to at ways to improve the education of K‐12 students on the subject of climate change.
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RCPs ‐ Development Aims and Products There were five end‐products expected from development process: 1. Four Representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Four RCPs…produced from IAM scenarios available in the published literature: one high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time; two intermediate “stabilization pathways” in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 6 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2 after 2100; and one pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100 and then declines. These scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover… 2. RCP‐based climate model ensembles and pattern scaling. Ensembles of gridded, time dependent projections of climate change produced by multiple climate models including atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), Earth system models (ESMs), Earth system models of intermediate complexity, and regional climate models will be prepared for the four long‐term RCPs, and high‐resolution, near‐term projections to 2035 for the 4.5 W/m2 stabilization RCP only. 3. New IAM scenarios. New scenarios will be developed by the IAM research community in consultation with the IAV community exploring a wide range of dimensions associated with anthropogenic climate forcing…Anticipated outputs include alternative socioeconomic driving forces, alternative technology development regimes, alternative realizations of Earth system science research, alternative stabilization scenarios including traditional “not exceeding” scenarios, “overshoot” scenarios, and representations of regionally heterogeneous mitigation policies and measures, as well as local and regional socioeconomic trends and policies… 4. Global narrative storylines. These are detailed descriptions associated with the four RCPs produced in the preparatory phase and such pathways developed as part of Product 3 by the IAM and IAV communities. These global and large‐region storylines should be able to inform IAV and other researchers. 5. Integrated scenarios. RCP‐based climate model ensembles and pattern scaling (Product 2) will be associated with combinations of new IAM scenario pathways (Product 3) to create combinations of ensembles. These scenarios will be available for use in new IAV assessments. In addition, IAM research will begin to incorporate IAV results, models, and feedbacks to produce comprehensively synthesized reference. RCP Primary Characteristics RCP 8.5 was developed using the MESSAGE model and the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria. This RCP is characterized by increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration levels (Riahi et al. 2007). RCP6 was developed by the AIM modeling team at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in Japan. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshoot, by the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Fujino et al. 2006; Hijioka et al. 2008). RCP 4.5 was developed by the GCAM modeling team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in the United States. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshooting the long‐run radiative forcing target level (Clarke et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al. 2009). RCP2.6 was developed by the IMAGE modeling team of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The emission pathway is representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. It is a “peak‐and‐decline” scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m2 by mid‐century, and returns to 2.6 W/m2 by 2100. In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions (and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced substantially, over time (Van Vuuren et al. 2007a)