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2016 OLLI Class – Our Changing Climate 1:15‐2:45 on Wednesdays Lectures by NCSU Professors Sept. 14 ‐‐ Dr. Russell Philbrick, Global Scale of Climate Change – pp 11‐34 Sept. 21 ‐‐ Dr. Lonnie Liethhold, Historical Perspective of Climate Change – pp 34‐59 Sept. 28 ‐‐ Dr. Anantha Aiyyer, Impact of Climate Change on Significant Weather Events Oct. 5 ‐‐ Dr. Dave DeMaster, Climate Change and High Latitudes – pp 60‐82 Oct. 12 ‐‐ Dr. William Kinsella, Climate Changes and the Future of Society – pp 83‐96 Oct. 19 ‐‐ Dr. Philbrick and Others, Climate Change Action Path and Wrap‐up – pp 97‐109 Attachments: 1. Handouts – pp1-10 2. Class Slides (2 per-page) Handout at the 1st OLLI Class Supplemental Information for OLLI Class: Our Changing Climate Two attachments to this page provide useful detailed information to support and summarize our best current knowledge on the topic of climate change. Much of the general published information on the environment today is politicized in one-way or another, but these two short items provide factual statements that represent our current understanding of this subject. The attachments include: 1. A set of twelve summary statements that represent top level conclusions of the US National Climate Assessment Report published in 2014. These three pages summarize the conclusions of this study and the complete 814 page report (174 MB) is available on the web at: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads or from libraries using the following citation: Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 pp. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2. 2. The Executive Summary of CONFRONTING CIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNIMANAGEABE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE, prepared by The Scientific Research Society, Sigma Xi, for the United Nations Foundation in 2007, available at www.conftontingclimatechance.org If you wish to explore further, the major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol 1 2013 Report (1552 pg, 375 MB), IPCC with all of the technical details can be found at: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ The follow up study and recommendations are available in the IPCC Vol 2 2014 Report at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/ 1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES Report Findings These findings distill important results that arise from this National Climate Assessment. They do not represent a full summary of all of the chapters’ findings, but rather a synthesis of particularly noteworthy conclusions. 1. Global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations. The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. Many independent lines of evidence confirm that human activities are affecting climate in unprecedented ways. U.S. average temperature has increased by 1.3°F to 1.9°F since record keeping began in 1895; most of this increase has occurred since about 1970. The most recent decade was the warmest on record. Because human‐induced warming is superimposed on a naturally varying climate, rising temperatures are not evenly distributed across the country or over time.21 See page 18. 2. Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and new and stronger evidence confirms that some of these increases are related to human activities. Changes in extreme weather events are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human‐induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the United States has seen an increase in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, and in some regions, more severe droughts.22 See page 24. 3. Human-induced climate change is projected to continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase. Heat‐trapping gases already in the atmosphere have committed us to a hotter future with more climate‐ related impacts over the next few decades. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat‐trapping gases that human activities emit globally, now and in the future.23 See page 28. 4. Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are expected to become increasingly disruptive across the nation throughout this century and beyond. Climate change is already affecting societies and the natural world. Climate change interacts with other environmental and societal factors in ways that can either moderate or intensify these impacts. The types and magnitudes of impacts vary across the nation and through time. Children, the elderly, the sick, and the poor are especially vulnerable. There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat‐trapping gases are greatly reduced.24 See page 32. 1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES 5. Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including through more extreme weather events and wildfire, decreased air quality, and diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water. Climate change is increasing the risks of heat stress, respiratory stress from poor air quality, and the spread of waterborne diseases. Extreme weather events often lead to fatalities and a variety of health impacts on vulnerable populations, including impacts on mental health, such as anxiety and post‐ traumatic stress disorder. Large‐scale changes in the environment due to climate change and extreme weather events are increasing the risk of the emergence or reemergence of health threats that are currently uncommon in the United States, such as dengue fever.25 See page 34. 6. Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, heavy downpours, and extreme heat; damages are projected to increase with continued climate change. Sea level rise, storm surge, and heavy downpours, in combination with the pattern of continued development in coastal areas, are increasing damage to U.S. infrastructure including roads, buildings, and industrial facilities, and are also increasing risks to ports and coastal military installations. Flooding along rivers, lakes, and in cities following heavy downpours, prolonged rains, and rapid melting of snowpack is exceeding the limits of flood protection infrastructure designed for historical conditions. Extreme heat is damaging transportation infrastructure such as roads, rail lines, and airport runways.26 See page 38. 7. Water quality and water supply reliability are jeopardized by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods. Surface and groundwater supplies in some regions are already stressed by increasing demand for water as well as declining runoff and groundwater recharge. In some regions, particularly the southern part of the country and the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, climate change is increasing the likelihood of water shortages and competition for water among its many uses. Water quality is diminishing in many areas, particularly due to increasing sediment and contaminant concentrations after heavy downpours.27 See page 42. 8. Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projected to become more severe over this century. Some areas are already experiencing climate‐related disruptions, particularly due to extreme weather events. While some U.S. regions and some types of agricultural production will be relatively resilient to climate change over the next 25 years or so, others will increasingly suffer from stresses due to extreme heat, drought, disease, and heavy downpours. From mid‐century on, climate change is projected to have more negative impacts on crops and livestock across the country – a trend that could diminish the security of our food supply.28 See page 46. 1: OVERVIEW AND REPORT FINDINGS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES 9. Climate change poses particular threats to Indigenous Peoples’ health, well-being, and ways of life. Chronic stresses such as extreme poverty are being exacerbated by climate change impacts such as reduced access to traditional foods, decreased water quality, and increasing exposure to health and safety hazards. In parts of Alaska, Louisiana, the Pacific Islands, and other coastal locations, climate change impacts (through erosion and inundation) are so severe that some communities are already relocating from historical homelands to which their traditions and cultural identities are tied. Particularly in Alaska, the rapid pace of temperature rise, ice and snow melt, and permafrost thaw are significantly affecting critical infrastructure and traditional livelihoods.29 See page 48. 10. Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being affected by climate change. The capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts of extreme events like fires, floods, and severe storms is being overwhelmed. Climate change impacts on biodiversity are already being observed in alteration of the timing of critical biological events such as spring bud burst and substantial range shifts of many species. In the longer term, there is an increased risk of species extinction. These changes have social, cultural, and economic effects. Events such as droughts, floods, wildfires, and pest outbreaks associated with climate change (for example, bark beetles in the West) are already disrupting ecosystems. These changes limit the capacity of ecosystems, such as forests, barrier beaches, and wetlands, to continue to play important roles in reducing the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure, human communities, and other valued resources.30 See page 50. 11. Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life. More acidic waters inhibit the formation of shells, skeletons, and coral reefs. Warmer waters harm coral reefs and alter the distribution, abundance, and productivity of many marine species. The rising temperature and changing chemistry of ocean water combine with other stresses, such as overfishing and coastal and marine pollution, to alter marine‐based food production and harm fishing communities.31 See page 58. 12. Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce future climate change, for example by cutting emissions) is becoming more widespread, but current implementation efforts are insufficient to avoid increasingly negative social, environmental, and economic consequences. Actions to reduce emissions, increase carbon uptake, adapt to a changing climate, and increase resilience to impacts that are unavoidable can improve public health, economic development, ecosystem protection, and quality of life.32 See page 62. February 2007 Executive Summary Introduction to Confronting Climate Change Three years ago, Sigma Xi was invited by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs to convene an international panel of scientists to prepare a report outlining the best measures for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. Chaired by Sigma Xi Past-President Peter H. Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Garden, the 18-member Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development held its first meeting at the Sigma Xi Center in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, in December of 2004 and presented its final report in New York on February 27, 2007. The non-profit United Nations Foundation co-sponsored the study. “This report gives very clear recommendations,” Raven said, “for what the international community and nations themselves must do to mitigate and adapt to climate change.” The following is an executive summary, and the full report can be found at www.sigmaxi.org. CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE Executive Summary. Scientific Expert Group Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Prepared for the 15th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development. Global climate change, driven largely by the combustion of fossil fuels and by deforestation, is a growing threat to human well-being in developing and industrialized nations alike. Significant harm from climate change is already occurring, and further damages are a certainty. The challenge now is to keep climate change from becoming a catastrophe. There is still a good chance of succeeding in this, and of doing so by means that create economic opportunities that are greater than the costs and that advance rather than impede other societal goals. But seizing this chance requires an immediate and major acceleration of efforts on two fronts: mitigation measures (such as reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases and black soot) to prevent the degree of climate change from becoming unmanageable; and adaptation measures (such as building dikes and adjusting agricultural practices) to reduce the harm from climate change that proves unavoidable. Avoiding the Unmanageable Human activities have changed the climate of the Earth, with significant impacts on ecosystems and human society, and the pace of change is increasing. The global-average surface temperature is now about 0.8°C1 above its level in 1750, with most of the increase having occurred in the 20th century and the most rapid rise occurring since 1970. Temperature changes over the continents have been greater than the global average and the changes over the continents at high latitudes have been greater still. The pattern of the observed changes matches closely what climate science predicts from the buildup in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), taking into account other known influences on the temperature. The largest of all of the human and natural influences on climate over the past 250 years has been the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration resulting from deforestation and fossil-fuel burning. The CO2 emissions in recent decades (Figure ES.1), which have been responsible for the largest part of this buildup, have come 75% to 85% from fossil fuels (largely in the industrialized countries) and 15% to 25% from deforestation and other landcover change (largely from developing countries in the tropics). The seemingly modest changes in average temperature experienced over the 20th century have been accompanied by significant increases in the incidence of floods, droughts, heat waves, and wildfires, particularly since 1970. It now appears that the intensity of tropical storms has been increasing as well. There have also been large reductions in the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic, large increases in summer melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet, signs of instability in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and movement in the geographic and altitudinal ranges of large numbers of plant and animal species. Even if human emissions could be instantaneously stopped, the world would not escape further climatic change. The slow equilibration of the oceans with changes in atmospheric composition means that a further 0.4°C to 0.5°C rise in global-average surface temperature will take place as a result of the current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and particles. If CO2 emissions and concentrations grow according to mid-range projections, moreover, the global average surface temperature is expected to rise by 0.2°C to 0.4°C per decade throughout 1 A given temperature change in degrees Celsius (°C) can be converted into a change in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) by multiplying by 1.8. Thus, a change of 0.8°C corresponds to a change of 0.8 x 1.8 = 1.44°F. CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE 1 the 21st century and would continue to rise thereafter. The cumulative warming by 2100 would be approximately 3°C to 5°C over preindustrial conditions. Accumulating scientific evidence suggests that changes in the average temperature of this magnitude are likely to be associated with large and perhaps abrupt changes in climatic patterns that, far more than average temperature alone, will adversely impact agriculture, forestry, fisheries, the availability of fresh water, the geography of disease, the livability of human settlements, and more (see Figure ES.2). Even over the next decade, the growing impacts of climate change will make it difficult to meet the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). No one can yet say for certain what increase in global-average surface temperature above the 1750 value is “too much,” in the sense that the consequences become truly unmanageable. In our judgment and that of a growing number of other analysts and groups, however, increases beyond 2°C to 2.5°C above the 1750 level will entail sharply rising risks of crossing a climate “tipping point” that could lead to intolerable impacts on human well-being, in spite of all feasible attempts at adaptation. Ramping up mitigation efforts quickly enough to avoid an increase of 2°C to 2.5°C would not be easy. Doing so would require very rapid success in reducing emissions of CH4 and black soot worldwide, and it would require that global CO2 emissions level off by 2015 or 2020 at not much above their current amount, before beginning a decline to no more than a third of that level by 2100. (The stringency of this trajectory and the difficulty of getting onto it are consequences, above all, of the emission levels already attained, the long time scale for removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by natural processes, and the long operating lifetimes of CO2-emitting energy technologies that today are being deployed around the world at an increasing pace.) But the challenge of halting climate change is one to which civilization must rise. Given what is currently known and suspected about how the impacts of climate change are likely to grow as the global-average surface temperature increases, we conclude that the goal of society’s mitigation efforts should 2 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, including land use change (Mt C per year from 1950 - 2003) 1 - 10 50 - 100 10 - 50 100 - 1000 1000 - 1500 Figure ES.1. The annual emissions of CO2 by country, averaged over the period 1950 to 2003, in millions of tonnes of carbon per year (MtC/year). be to hold the increase to 2°C if possible and in no event more than 2.5°C. Managing the Unavoidable Even with greatly increased efforts to mitigate future changes in climate, the magnitude of local, regional, and global changes in climatic patterns experienced in the 21st century will be substantial. • A 2°C increase in the global-average surface temperature above its 1750 value is likely, for example, to result in up to a 4°C warming in the middle of large continents and even larger increases in the polar regions. Regional changes will be even more extreme if global average temperatures rise by 3°C or higher. • Climate change during the 21st century is likely to entail increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather, increases in sea level and the acidity of the oceans that will not be reversible for centuries to millennia, large-scale shifts in vegetation that cause major losses of sensitive plant and animal species, and significant shifts in the geographic ranges of disease vectors and pathogens. man health, and settlements, resulting in increased loss of life and property. • Some sectors in some locations may benefit from the initial changes in climate. Most impacts are expected to be negative, however, with the social and economic consequences disproportionately affecting the poorest nations, those in water-scarce regions, and vulnerable coastal communities in affluent countries. Managing the unavoidable changes in climate, both by promoting adaptation and by building capacity for recovery from extreme events, will be a challenge. International, national, and regional institutions are, in many senses, ill prepared to cope with current weather-related disasters, let alone potential problems such as an increasing number of refugees fleeing environmental damages spawned by climate change. Society will need to improve management of natural resources and preparedness/response strategies to cope with future climatic conditions that will be fundamentally different from those experienced for the last 100 years. Integrating Adaptation and Mitigation to Achieve Multiple • These changes have the potential to lead Benefits to large local-to-regional disruptions in ecosystems and to adverse impacts on food security, fresh water resources, hu- The simultaneous tasks of starting to drastically reduce GHG emissions, continuing to adapt to intensifying climate change, and CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE North America: Reduced springtime snowpack; changing river flows; shifting ecosystems, with loss of niche environments; rising sea level and increased intensity and energy of Atlantic hurricanes increase coastal flooding and storm damage; more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires; improved agriculture and forest productivity for a few decades Arctic: Significant retreat of ice; disrupted habitats of polar megafauna; accelerated loss of ice from Greenland Ice Sheet and mountain glaciers; shifting of fisheries; replacement of most tundra by boreal forest; greater exposure to UV-radiation Central and Northern Asia: Widespread melting of permafrost, disrupting transportation and buildings; greater swampiness and ecosystem stress from warming; increased release of methane; coastal erosion due to sea ice retreat Southern Asia: Sea level rise and more intense cyclones increase flooding of deltas and coastal plains; major loss of mangroves and coral reefs; melting of mountain glaciers reduces vital river flows; increased pressure on water resources with rising population and need for irrigation; possible monsoon perturbation Central America and West Indies: Greater likelihood of intense rainfall and more powerful hurricanes; increased coral bleaching; some inundation from sea level rise; biodiversity loss Pacific and Small Islands: Inundation of low-lying coral islands as sea level rises; salinization of aquifers; widespread coral bleaching; more powerful typhoons and possible intensification of ENSC extremes South America: Disruption of tropical forests and significant loss of biodiversity; melting glaciers reduce water supplies; increased moisture stress in agricultural regions; more frequent occurrence of intense periods of rain, leading to more flash floods Europe: More intense winter precipitation, river flooding, and other hazards; increased summer heat waves and melting of mountain glaciers; greater water stress in southern regions; intensifying regional climatic differences; greater biotic stress, causing shifts in flora; tourism shift from Mediterranean region Global Oceans: Made more acidic by increasing CO2 concentration, deep overturning circulation possibly reduced by warming and freshening in North Atlantic Antarctica and Southern Ocean:Increasing risk of significant ice loss from West Antarctic Ice Sheet, risking much higher sea level in centuries ahead; accelerating loss of sea ice, disrupting marine life and penguins Africa: Declining agricultural yields and diminished food security; increased occurrence of drought and stresses on water supplies; disruption of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity, including some major species; some coastal inundation Australia and New Zealand: Substantial loss of coral along Great Barrier Reef; significant diminishment of water resources; coastal inundation of some settled areas; increased fire risk; some early benefits to agriculture Figure ES.2. Significant impacts of climate change that will likely occur across the globe in the 21st century. achieving the MDGs will require skillful planning and implementation, all the more so because of the interaction of these aims. For example, clean and affordable energy supplies are essential for achieving the MDGs in the developing countries and for expanding and sustaining well-being in the developed ones. Energy’s multiple roles in these issues provide “win-win” opportunities as well as challenges, including: • Utilizing the most advanced building designs, which can provide emissions-free space conditioning (cooling and heating) in ways that greatly reduce energy and water demands and that promote improved health and worker performance. • Implementing carbon capture and storage from fossil-fueled power plants, which reduce impacts on climate while making available concentrated CO2 that can be used in enhanced natural gas and oil recovery and in agricultural applications. • Replacing traditional uses of biomass fuels for cooking and heating (including agricultural residues and animal dung burned in inefficient cookstoves) with modern energy supplies that can reduce production of black soot and other aerosols, improve the health of women and children otherwise exposed to high indoor air pollution from traditional uses of biomass, and reduce deforestation and land degradation. • Combining the sustainable use of biomass for energy (renewable sources of biomass to produce electricity, liquid fuels, and gaseous fuels) with carbon capture and sequestration, which can power development and remove CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. In addition, reversing the unsustainable land-use practices that lead to deforestation and degradation of soil fertility will help limit the release of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere from the soil. Improving sanitation in rural areas can reduce emissions of CH4 and provide a renewable fuel to help reduce dependence on coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Projects and programs from around the world have demonstrated that much progress can be made on climate-change mitigation and adaptation in ways that save money rather than add to costs. Some of the measures that will ultimately be required are likely to have significant net costs—albeit much less, in all likelihood, than the climate-change damages averted—but a clear way forward for immediate application is to promote much wider adoption of “win-win” approaches, such as those described above, that reduce climate-change risks while saving CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE money, or that produce immediate co-benefits outweighing the costs of the measures. To move further, government leadership is required to establish policy frameworks that create incentives for energy-system change and establish public-private partnerships for energy-technology development, deployment, and diffusion. Leaders in the private sector also need to seize opportunities to develop, commercialize, and deploy low-emitting energy technologies that will also create jobs and enable economic development. Individuals, especially in affluent societies, must also show leadership by consuming responsibly. The Elements of a Roadmap Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable will require an immediate and major acceleration of efforts to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. The following are our recommendations for immediate attention by the United Nations (UN) system and governments worldwide. 1. Accelerate implementation of win-win solutions that can moderate climate change while also moving the world toward a more sustainable future energy path and making progress on attaining the MDGs. Key steps must include measures to: • Improve efficiency in the transportation sector through measures such as 3 vehicle efficiency standards, fuel taxes, and registration fees/rebates that favor purchase of efficient and alternative fuel vehicles, government procurement standards, and expansion and strengthening of public transportation and regional planning. • Improve the design and efficiency of commercial and residential buildings through building codes, standards for equipment and appliances, incentives for property developers and landlords to build and manage properties efficiently, and financing for energy-efficiency investments. • Expand the use of biofuels, especially in the transportation sector, through energy portfolio standards and incentives to growers and consumers, with careful attention to environmental impacts, biodiversity concerns, and energy and water inputs. • Promote reforestation, afforestation, and improved land-use practices in ways that enhance overall productivity and delivery of ecological services while simultaneously storing more carbon and reducing emissions of smoke and soot. • Beginning immediately, design and deploy only coal-fired power plants that will be capable of cost-effective and environmentally sound retrofits for capture and sequestration of their carbon emissions. 2. Implement a new global policy framework for mitigation that results in significant emissions reductions, spurs development and deployment of clean energy technologies, and allocates burdens and benefits fairly. Such a framework needs to be in place before the end of the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period in 2012. Elements of the framework should include: • An agreed goal of preventing a globalaverage temperature increase of more than 2°C to 2.5°C above the 1750 value-accompanied by multi-decade emission-reduction targets compatible with this aim. 4 • Metrics of performance that enable monitoring of progress towards reductions in energy and emissions intensity at a national level. • Flexibility in the types of policies, measures, and approaches adopted that reflect different national levels of development, needs, and capabilities. • Mechanisms that establish a price for carbon, such as taxes or “cap and trade” systems. A carbon price will help provide incentives to increase energy efficiency, encourage use of low-carbon energysupply options, and stimulate research into alternative technologies. Markets for trading emission allocations will increase economic efficiency. • A mechanism to finance incremental costs of more efficient and lower-emitting energy technologies in low-income countries. 3. Develop strategies to adapt to ongoing and future changes in climate by integrating the implications of climate change into resource management and infrastructure development, and by committing to help the poorest nations and most vulnerable communities cope with increasing climate-change damages. Taking serious action to protect people, communities, and essential natural systems will involve commitments to: • Undertake detailed regional assessments to identify important vulnerabilities and establish priorities for increasing the adaptive capacity of communities, infrastructure, and economic activities. For example, governments should commit to incorporate adaptation into local Agenda 21 action plans and national sustainable-development strategies. • Develop technologies and adaptivemanagement and disaster-mitigation strategies for water resources, coastal infrastructure, human health, agriculture, and ecosystems/biodiversity, which are expected to be challenged in virtually every region of the globe, and define a new category of “environmental refugee” to better anticipate support requirements for those fleeing environmental disasters. • Avoid new development on coastal land that is less than one meter above present high tide, as well as within high-risk areas such as floodplains. • Ensure that the effects of climate change are considered in the design of protected areas and efforts to maintain biodiversity. • Enhance early-warning systems to provide improved prediction of weather extremes, especially to the most vulnerable countries and regions. • Bolster existing financial mechanisms (such as the Global Environment Facility)- and create additional ones-for helping the most vulnerable countries cope with unavoidable impacts, possibly using revenues generated from carbon pricing, as planned in the Adaptation Fund of the Clean Development Mechanism. • Strengthen adaptation-relevant institutions and build capacity to respond to climate change at both national and international levels. The UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) should request that the UN system evaluate the adequacy of, and improve coordination among, existing organizations such as the CSD, the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the UN Refugee Agency, the World Bank, and others to more effectively support achievement of the MDGs and adaptation to climate change. 4. Create and rebuild cities to be climate resilient and GHG-friendly, taking advantage of the most advanced technologies and approaches for using land, fresh water, and marine, terrestrial, and energy resources. Crucial action items include the following elements: • Modernize cities and plan land-use and transportation systems, including CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE greater use of public transit, to reduce energy use and GHG intensity and increase the quality of life and economic success of a region’s inhabitants. • Construct all new buildings using designs appropriate to local climate. • Upgrade existing buildings to reduce energy demand and slow the need for additional power generation. • Promote lifestyles, adaptations, and choices that require less energy and demand for non-renewable resources. 5. Increase investments and cooperation in energy-technology innovation to develop the new systems and practices that are needed to avoid the most damaging consequences of climate change. Current levels of public and private investment in energy-technology research, development, demonstration, and pre-commercial deployment are not even close to commensurate with the size of the challenge and the extent of the opportunities. We recommend that national governments and the UN system: • Advocate and achieve a tripling to quadrupling of global public and private investments in energy-technology research, emphasizing energy efficiency in transportation, buildings, and the industrial sector; biofuels, solar, wind, and other renewable technologies; and advanced technologies for carbon capture and sequestration. • Promote a comparable increase in public and private investments-with particular emphasis on public-private partnerships-focused on demonstration and accelerated commercial deployment of energy technologies with large mitigation benefits. • Use UN institutions and other specialized organizations to promote public-private partnerships that increase private-sector financing for energy-efficiency and renewable-energy investments, drawing upon limited public resources to provide loan guarantees and interest rate buy-downs. • Increase energy-technology research, development, and demonstration across the developing regions of the world. Potential options for achieving this goal include twinning arrangements between developed and developing countries and strengthening the network of regional centers for energy-technology research. • Over the next two years, complete a study on how to better plan, finance, and deploy climate-friendly energy technologies using the resources of UN and other international agencies such as the UN Development Programme, the World Bank, and the Global Environment Facility. 6. Improve communication to accelerate adaptation and mitigation by increasing education efforts and creating forums for dialogue, technology assessment, and planning. The full range of public- and privatesector participants should be engaged to encourage partnerships across industrial and academic experts, the financial community, and public and private organizations. National governments and the UN system should take the following steps: • Develop an international process to assess technologies and refine sectoral targets for mitigation that brings together experts from industry, nongovernmental organizations, the financial community, and government. The Technology and Economic Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol provides an effective model for assessing technological potential and effective, realistic sectoral mitigation targets. • Enhance national programs for public and corporate education on the needs, paths, opportunities, and benefits of a transition to a low-emission energy future. • Enlist the educational and capacitybuilding capabilities of UN institutions to provide information about climate change and the opportunities for adaptation and mitigation. Under the leadership of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the UN should complete an internal study to more effectively engage relevant UN agencies. The Time for Collective Action is Now Governments, corporations, and individuals must act now to forge a new path to a sustainable future with a stable climate and a robust environment. There are many opportunities for taking effective early action at little or no cost. Many of these opportunities also have other environmental or societal benefits. Even if some of the subsequent steps required are more difficult and expensive, their costs are virtually certain to be smaller than the costs of the climate-change damages these measures would avert. Two starkly different futures diverge from this time forward. Society’s current path leads to increasingly serious climate-change impacts, including potentially catastrophic changes in climate that will compromise efforts to achieve development objectives where there is poverty and will threaten standards of living where there is affluence. The other path leads to a transformation in the way society generates and uses energy as well as to improvements in management of the world’s soils and forests. This path will reduce dangerous emissions, create economic opportunity, help to reduce global poverty, reduce degradation of and carbon emissions from ecosystems, and contribute to the sustainability of productive economies capable of meeting the needs of the world’s growing population. Humanity must act collectively and urgently to change course through leadership at all levels of society. There is no more time for delay. CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE 5 UNITED NATIONS–SIGMA XI SCIENTIFIC EXPERT GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGE Authors, Reviewers, and Contributors Coordinating Lead Authors Rosina Bierbaum, Professor and Dean, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, United States John P. Holdren, Director, The Woods Hole Research Center, and Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy, Harvard University, United States Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, Climate Institute, United States Richard H. Moss, Senior Director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation and University of Maryland, United States Peter H. Raven, President, Missouri Botanical Garden, United States Lead Authors Special Technical Advisor Ulisses Confalonieri, Professor, National School of Public Health and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil James Edmonds, Senior Staff Scientist, Joint Global Change Research Institute at University of Maryland College Park, United States Jacques “Jack” Dubois, Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re, United States Research Assistant Alexander Ginzburg, Deputy Director, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation Nathan L. Engle, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, United States Peter H. Gleick, President, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, United States Reviewers at the AAAS Annual Meeting, 2006 Zara Khatib, Technology Marketing Manager, Shell International, United Arab Emirates Anthony Arguez, NOAA National Climatic Data Center, United States Janice Lough, Principal Research Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Australia Sally Benson, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Ann Bartuska, USDA Forest Service, United States Ajay Mathur, President, Senergy Global Private Limited, India Norm Christensen, Duke University, United States Mario Molina, Professor, University of California, San Diego, United States, and President, Mario Molina Center, Mexico William Clark, Harvard University, United States Keto Mshigeni, Vice Chancellor, The Hubert Kairuki Memorial University, Tanzania Gladys Cotter, US Geological Survey, United States Nebojsa “Naki” Nakicenovic, Professor, Vienna University of Technology, and Program Leader, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria Geoff Hawtin, Global Crop Diversity Trust, United Kingdom Taikan Oki, Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan Edward Miles, University of Washington, United States Hans Joachim “John” Schellnhuber, Professor and Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Richard Thomas, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, Syrian Arab Republic Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Professor, Central European University, Hungary Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States Robert Corell, The Heinz Center, United States Partha Dasgupta, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom Daniel Kammen, University of California, Berkeley, United States Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Cornell University, United States Sigma Xi Sponsors Special thanks to: James F. Baur Philip B. Carter (since September 2006) Patrick D. Sculley (until September 2006) Jeff Bielicki and Dave Thompson, Harvard University Ko Barrett, NOAA John Rintoul, Sigma Xi Cosy Simon, Swiss Re Naja Davis, David Harwood, Ryan Hobert, Katherine Miller, and Tripta Singh, UN Foundation Lelani Arris, Copy Editor UN Liaisons JoAnne DiSano, Peter Mak, Walter Shearer, Division for Sustainable Development, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, United Nations www.confrontingclimatechange.org 9/15/2016 OUTLINE 1. Introductions 2. Requirements for a Habitable Planet 3. Climate Change Signatures 4. Global Radiation Balance 5. Atmospheric Processes and Models 6. Future Action – What can we do? 7. Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change References 1. Introduction OLLI – Our Changing Climate 1:15‐2:45 on Wednesdays Sept. 14 ‐‐ Dr. Russell Philbrick, Global Scale of Climate Change Sept. 21 ‐‐ Dr. Lonnie Liethhold, Historical Perspective of Climate Change Sept. 28 ‐‐ Dr. Anantha Aiyyer, Impact of Climate Change on Significant Weather Events Oct. 5 ‐‐ Dr. Dave DeMaster, Climate Change and High Latitudes Oct. 12 ‐‐ Dr. William Kinsella, Climate Changes and the Future of Society Oct. 19 ‐‐ Dr. Philbrick and Others, Climate Change Action Path and Wrap‐up Session. 1 9/15/2016 OLLI Lecture – September 14, 2016 OUR CHANGING CLIMATE Prof. Russell Philbrick MEAS Department, NCSU Physics Department, NCSU Emeritus Professor, Penn State University Background of Lecturer: NCSU Physics: BS (62), MS (64), PhD (66) 1966-1987 - AF Cambridge Research Lab, Hanscom AFB, MA 1988-2009 - Penn State University, Electrical Engineering Dept. 2009-present - NCSU Recommended Readings: Jared Diamond, Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Penguin Books 2005 Thomas Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, NY 2008 IPCC 2013 Vol 1-The Physical Science Basis - FINAL 2013/2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Reports, IPCC Vol 1 2013 Report (1552 pg, 375 MB), http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ IPCC Vol 2 2014 Report, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/final-drafts/ The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2. 2014 US National Climate Assessment, 3rd Report, NCA3, (814 pg, 174 MB) http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE: AVOIDING THE UNIMANAGEABE AND MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE, Executive Summary, prepared by The Scientific Research Society, Sigma Xi, for the United Nations Foundation, 2007, www.conftontingclimatechance.org National Academy of Science Reports (49 identified on Climate Change) 2 9/15/2016 2. Requirements for a Habitable Planet Our Blue Planet What are factors that have allowed lifeforms to develop on this planet? Life on Planet Earth – Supporting and Sustaining Conditions Long‐lifetime star (late development of our galaxy) Close enough to galaxy center to have heavy isotopic masses Far enough from galaxy center for low energetic radiation levels Distance from Sun in life sustaining region (temperature) Atmosphere that supports life forms – water, oxygen Atmosphere removes (cosmic rays, ‐radiation, X‐ray, UV) Atmosphere protects against interplanetary dust and meteors Magnetic field rigidity protects against energetic ionized particles Water vapor transports latent heat, distributes energy to poles Global radiation balance is controlled primarily by “greenhouse” gasses and the planetary albedo (and radiation from Sun) 3 9/15/2016 Habitable regions of our Milkyway galaxy are very limited Scientific American, pg 63, October 2001. Venus, Earth’s sister planet. (similar size, gravity, and bulk composition) Venus has a run‐away greenhouse atmosphere. Atmosphere at Surface* Temperature 460oC Pressure 93 bars ~96.5% Carbon dioxide ~3.5% Nitrogen 0.015% Sulfur dioxide *Wikipedia Venus is believed to have had water oceans, but these evaporated as the temperature rose. The water probably dissociated, and hydrogen was swept into interplanetary space. Our atmosphere is subject to non‐linear processes, which we do not know how to model to determine the tipping point. 4 9/15/2016 The basic question – Can scientific, political, corporate and public interests come together to provide solutions for societal issues? This is not an acceptable alternative! IBM Advertisement Websphere for Mankind – Back cover Discover Magazine September 2001. The primordial atmosphere of Earth had no oxygen. Present 21% of O2 is due to plant production by photosynthesis which produced oil and coal deposits. Chemistry of Atmospheres, R.P. Wayne, Oxford Science Publication, 1991. 5 9/15/2016 3. Climate Change Signatures Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007 6 9/15/2016 Temperature and CO2 Changes Past and Projected Changes Global Mean Sea Level Changes – Measurements and Model Projections 7 9/15/2016 Oceans become more acidic as they absorb CO2 1958 – 320 ppm 2011 – 391 ppm 2016 – 400.33 ppm 8 Sept. ~2.5 ppm/yr ~2 ppm/yr Mauna Loa Observatory ~1 ppm/yr The oscillation follows the summer/winter conversion of CO2. CO2 Chlorophyll O2 8 9/15/2016 4. Radiation Balance Sun Emission Earth Emission Visible Spectrum Atmospheric Transmission 9 9/15/2016 Ultraviolet Visible Infrared %A %A Water Molecule - Energy States http://www.lsbu.ac.uk/water/images/v1.gif 10 9/15/2016 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Vol 1, Climate Change 2013 11 9/15/2016 1367 W/m2 at Top of Atmosphere Global Mean Radiative Balance 5. Atmospheric Processes and Models GtC = Gigaton of Carbon = 1015 grams = 3.67 GtCO2 12 9/15/2016 Ice Loss/Gain 2003 to 2012 13 9/15/2016 Temperature Change (1861‐1880 Average) Compared with CO2 (Gigaton) Emissions and Projections PgC = GtC 14 9/15/2016 Measurements & Models for Radiative Forcing (W/m2) and Surface Temperature (oC) 15 9/15/2016 GtC = Giga tons of Carbon http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/CarbonCycle/carbon_cycle4.html We release 5.5 x 109 (billion) tons of carbon by burning fossil fuels each year. From this, 3.3 x 109 tons goes into the atmosphere and the rest into the ocean. Photosynthesis reaction 6CO2 + 6H2O → C6H12O6 + 6O2 National Earth Science Teachers Association The yellow line marks the mid‐Pliocene shoreline when the global sea level was about 25 m higher, three million years ago. American Scientist Vol 99, pg 232, 2011 16 9/15/2016 The Issues: (1) Present CO2 levels are approaching 400 ppm (>500 ppm by 2050) (2) Most scientists that have studied the problem agree that unacceptable climate changes will have occurred by the time CO2 reaches 450 ppm (3) Fossil fuels account for 80% of the world’s energy use (4) Today energy relies on digging or pumping 7 billion tons of carbon each year that is mostly input to the atmosphere (5) Today the global input is ~ 7x109 tons per year and at present rate of growth that will be 14 billion tons per year by 2056 (6) US produces 25% of carbon emission with 5% of population (7) Residential and commercial buildings account for > 60% of electric use (8) Coal based synfuels add as much or more CO2 as a gasoline car (9) Corn based biofuels add as much CO2 and may do more ecological damage because of fertilizers (10) A definite temperature increase is measured during the past 50 years (20 of the hottest years on record occurred since 1980) (11) US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol (reduce emission 7% below 1990 level) (12) No simple single fix will help to avert the eventual possibility of a “run-away greenhouse” 5. Future Action – What can we do? Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006 17 9/15/2016 Each Wedge Represents 1 Billion Tons of CO2/Yr Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006 Require minimum of seven wedges to limit CO2 at survival level (wedges only count if added use of technologies that have already been demonstrated) # Wedges 1 – Lower birth rate to hold global population below 8 billion people in 2056 1 – Curtail the emissions of methane (CH4) 2 – Eliminate deforestation 1 – Wide spread use of synfuels with capture and storage of CO2 2 – Expand the number of nuclear power plants by factor of five to displace conventional coal power plants 2 – Cut electricity use in building by half through use of super-efficient lighting and appliances 1 – Industrial use of electricity more efficiently 1 – Increased efficiency of automobiles 1 – Efficiency in transportation (other than automobile) 1 – Capture and store the carbon emissions from the present coal power plants 1 – capture and store carbon from large natural gas power plants -1 to -3 – 700 coal power plants (1000 MW) emit one wedge (a few thousand such plants are presently expected to be built – natural gas plants burn half as much carbon per unit of electricity) Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacla, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check” Sci. American, Sept. 2006 18 9/15/2016 At what level will we experience irreversible changes? Concept of several wedges to arrive at a solution. Hold CO2 constant without choking economic growth. 2056 Goals 60 mpg car cut electricity use in homes and buildings by half carbon sequestering (capture and storage) reduce coal use and increased green power production increased alternative sources (solar cells, wind, waves) What set of polices will result in saving seven wedges? (a wedge represents 1 billion tons of carbon per year) CO2 Reductions Yeh, Sonia and David McCollum. "Optimizing Climate Mitigation Wedges for the Transportation Sector." In STEPS Book: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis. 19 9/15/2016 Wind Power Goal: 20% of US Power by 2030 Energy Sources Smil, Global Energy, Am. Scientist, 99, p212, 2011 Improve efficiency in design, construction, heating/cooling systems, appliances, industrial methods, and electrical transmission. Particularly, cleaner transportation and generation of electrical energy. Scientific American, September 2005 20 9/15/2016 CO2 is captured at Salah gas project in Algerian desert. Compressed gas is injected into a brine deposit at 2 km depth – the rate is 1/6 of that required for a 1,000 MW coal gasification plant fitted for capture and storage. Socolow, Can We Bury Global Warming? Sc. Am., pg 49, July 2005 Population Global Population Status and Projected Growth Scientific American, September 2005 21 9/15/2016 7. Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change The activities of man are changing the face of our planet. The resources of our planet are stretched. The quality of air, water and earth are deteriorating. We must become better stewards of our Earth home! A view of fragile Earth Population Air Water Ocean Land Biodiversity Energy http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm Perspective – Our universe has been here about 14 billion years, Our solar system formed about 4 billion years ago, Man has been walking this planet about 4 million years, Civilization’s roots for modern society are about 2500 years old, The industrial revolution to produce our goods and services began about 100 years ago. Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000 22 9/15/2016 What can you do? Become environment steward Electricity, Water, Recycle Improve use of energy resources Use computer for paperless society Plan for conservation Consider the life cycle Plan for resource preservation Teach others, educate young & adult Practice personal conservation Be an example http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm What can I do as an individual to conserve resources? Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000 50 Simple Things You Can Do to Save Earth, Earth Works Press, 1991. Use low phosphate detergent Use low flow faucet aerator Reuse containers End junk mail Use unbleached paper Use sponge or cloth to wipe spills Use less heating and AC Reduce water use in toilet Low-flow showerhead Shower-soap-shower (30-35%) Water flow – brush teeth – water Conserve electricity use Insulate home Reduce travel by car – use public Recycle glass, plastic, metal, paper Plant a tree (avg use is 7 per year) Eat low on food chain Teach others to conserve Support conservation with your pen 23 9/15/2016 EACH OF US CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE! Olympus Photo Deluxe, 2000 References Jared Diamond, “Collapse – How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” Penguin Books Ltd, London, 2005 Thomas L. Friedman, “Hot , Flat, and Crowded” Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, New York, 2008 IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007, and IPCC 5th Assessment, 2013-14 IBM Advertisement Websphere for Mankind – Back cover Discover Magazine September 2001. Fusion Plasmas – http://www.plasma.org/photo-fusion.htm NASA Photos - http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery.htm 50 Simple Things You Can Do to Save Earth, Earth Works Press, 1991. Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter, National Research Council, 1998. Technology and Environment – National Academy of Engineering, 1989. Scientific American, June 2001, July 2001, October 2001, September 2005. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming – National Academy Press, 1991. Environmental Physics, Boeker and Grondelle, John Wiley & Sons, 1995. Planet Earth, Cesare Emilliani, Cambridge University Press, 1995. Chemistry of Atmospheres, R.P. Wayne, Oxford Science Publication, 1991. Kwok, Ronold, and Norbert Untersteiner, “Thinning of Artic Sea Ice” Physics Today, April 2011 Energy’s Future Beyond Carbon, Scientific American, September 2006 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar Socolow, Can We Bury Global Warming? Sc. Am., 49, July 2005 Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and Beyond, http://www.solar.udel.edu/pdf/SEIA%20Roadmap.pdf Third National Climate Assessment, NCA3, 2014 http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding and Managing, Summary, 2007, www.conftontingclimatechance.org 24 10/17/2016 Climate change in Earth History– a perspective on the future Dr. Lonnie Leithold Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences 135 years of data 1 10/17/2016 The other CO2 problem– Ocean Acidification 26 years of data Earth History First modern humans (Homo sapiens sapiens): 33,000 years ago (last 0.0007%) First hominid fossils: about 7 million years old (Miocene Epoch) Younger Millions of years ago Time of “obvious life,” past ~600 million years Formation of the planet, 4.6 billion years ago 2 10/17/2016 Many of us have a sense that climate has changed How do we know? What can we learn from the past? Climate in Earth History– Key Points We know a great deal about climate change over Earth’s history based on numerous climate “proxies” The Earth’s past gives us important insights into the impacts of climate change When we look at the past, what stands out about the present is the rate of climate change 3 10/17/2016 The Earth’s history “book” Sedimentary strata in the Grand Canyon record over 1 billion years of history Ocean and lake sediments contain very detailed records of past environmental conditions, including climate 4 10/17/2016 Climate Proxies– Rock Types Glacial tillite Coal An “evaporate” mineral Glaciers and glacial deposits Glaciers are “rivers of ice” that flow under their own weight 5 10/17/2016 Formation of glaciers Glaciers form when snow accumulates for a long time– summer temperatures are critical As the snow is buried, pressure causes the snow to covert to small ice grains, and eventually these ice grains recrystallize to form glacial ice How do we know about past glaciers?-Glacial erosion and deposition Glaciers are very effective at eroding the rocks over which they flow When they melt back they leave behind large volumes of sediment of all sizes 6 10/17/2016 Glacial tills and tillites Till is the term we use for “poorly sorted” sediment left behind by glaciers when they melt Glacial till in Minnesota, about 18,000 years old 7 10/17/2016 Tillite = Till that has been “lithified”, turned to rock More clues left behind by glaciers: Ice rafted debris- Dropstones Icebergs are pieces of ice that have broken off glaciers and float on lakes or the ocean Commonly icebergs release rocks that drop into muddy sediments below 8 10/17/2016 Ice-rafted debris-- dropstones 700 million year old dropstone from Virginia (!) Climate Proxies-- Fossils 100 million year old breadfruit leaf from Greenland 50 million year old pollen grains 9 10/17/2016 Evidence from fossil leaf “shape” Plants are very sensitive to climate Plants growing in humid, tropical areas have leaves that have smooth (“entire”) margins and drip tips Evidence from fossil leaf “shape” Plants growing in temperate climates have more jagged or “toothed” margins 10 10/17/2016 Evidence from fossil leaves and pollen A study of fossil leaves in North America provides evidence for gradual cooling and drying of the climate, especially between 30 and 40 million years ago Climate Proxies– Chemical clues Isotopes are different forms of elements (with variable numbers of neutrons) Oxygen, for example, exists in three stable forms: 16O, 17O, 18O 16O 17O 18O 99.76% 0.04% 0.20% 11 10/17/2016 Isotope “Behavior” Molecules with different isotopes of a particular element have different masses and bonding characteristics. The bond involving the light isotope is usually weaker and easier to break. As a result, the molecules with different isotopes behave a little bit differently during chemical reactions, as well as during such physical processes as evaporation and condensation. Two water molecules 18O H H heavier 16O H H lighter Foraminifera (”forams”): one-celled marine organisms with shells constructed of calcium carbonate CaCO3 Shells are sand-sized and are abundant in sediments from the deep sea We can measure the proportions of the most abundant O isotopes, 16O and 18O, in their shells 12 10/17/2016 Climate signals from foraminifera shells in deep sea deposits– 18O/16O The temperature of the water has an effect on the proportion of oxygen isotopes that the forams use to make their shells—if it is colder, they tend to use relatively more 18O The melting and freezing of glaciers has an even larger effect on the proportion of 18O and 16O in seawater, and hence in foram shells Foram shell composed of CaCO3 Evidence from the chemistry of foraminifera shells When glaciers form, they lock away 16O, on land and the oceans become relatively enriched in 18O During glacial times, therefore, forams will have shells that are relatively rich in 18O 13 10/17/2016 18O/16O in forams from Cenozoic sediments (past 65.5 million years) More 18O = colder ocean temperatures and more ice on Earth Zachos et al. 2001, Science We will use these data to look at climate change at three different time scales 14 10/17/2016 Green House vs Ice House Climates– 100 million year cycles Greenhouse Earth Silurian (430 Ma) Cretaceous (100 Ma) Times when continents were moving rapidly apart were times of rapid seafloor spreading, high volcanic activity and high atmospheric CO2 content There was little or no glacial ice 15 10/17/2016 Permian (280 Ma) Pleistocene (50 Ka) Icehouse Earth Times of when “supercontinents” were nearly or totally assembled are times of slow seafloor spreading, lower volcanic activity and atmospheric CO2 levels, and large continental ice caps Cenozoic Climate– The past 65.5 million years During the Cenozoic Era, the Earth has undergone a dramatic cooling of climate– a transition from Greenhouse to Icehouse The cooling reached its maximum during the Pleistocene Epoch, beginning 1.8 million years ago 16 10/17/2016 Glacial-Interglacial Cycles of the past 1.8 million years Glacial-Interglacial Cycles of the past 1.8 million years The advances and retreats of glaciers in the late Cenozoic are related to variations in the earth’s orbit (Milankovitch cycles) 17 10/17/2016 Last Glacial Maximum The last glacial peak was about 18,000 years ago, at which time Canada and the upper U.S. were covered with ice The current interglacial In the normal course of Milankovitch cycles, apart from any warming induced by humans, the present interglacial should give way within about 2,000 years to a gradual, uneven decline in global temperature and a major ice age about 23,000 years from now. 18 10/17/2016 The man-made superinterglacial Global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.5 to 5.0 degrees C by the year 2300 How does this compare to climate changes of the past? We know that the Earth’s mean temperature has decreased by about 5 degrees C in the past 50 million years 19 10/17/2016 How does this compare to climate changes of the past? Between 18,000 and 7000 years ago, orbital changes melted the ice sheet in the northern Hemisphere How does this compare to climate changes of the past? In this time period, global temperature warmed by 4-6 degrees C 20 10/17/2016 How does this compare to climate changes of the past? Cause of change Tectonics (Greenhouse/Icehouse) Orbital variations Anthropogenic greenhouse gases Rate of change (degrees C per 100 yr) 0.00001 (1/100,000) 0.05 0.83 to 1.66 (17-33X the rate of change due to orbital variations) Do we have any analogues from Earth History?– the closest is an event called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) that occurred about 56 million years ago 21 10/17/2016 The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 3000 Pg (petagram = 1015 g) of carbon input to the environment over 4000-6000 years Carbon isotopes point to release of frozen biologically-produced gas (methane) 1 Pg= 1.1 billion US tons Possible sources are frozen methane hydrates from the oceans and/or permafrost Possible sources are frozen methane hydrates from the oceans and/or permafrost 22 10/17/2016 The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) Led to global warming of 6oC Caused dissolution of carbonate shells in the deep sea The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) Other impacts: Increased intensity of hydrologic cycle (storms, flooding) and erosion rates Migrations and turnover of many terrestrial and marine organisms, including mammals and plants Major extinction of bottom-dwelling forams, but the extinction rate in general is minor compared to other times in Earth history (such as the end of the Cretaceous Period) 23 10/17/2016 Comparison of the PETM to the Anthropocene PETM Anthropocene Carbon released or potentially released, in Petagrams (Pg) ~3000 Fossil fuel reserves: 1000-2000 Annual rate of carbon release 1.1 Pg 10 Pg in 2014 pH drop in surface ocean waters - 0.4 total (over 40006000 years) -0.1 (-0.3 by end of century) Fossil fuel resources: 3000-13,500 Reserves = technically and economically ready to be produced 1 Pg= 1.1 billion US tons Resources = total amount estimated to be “in the ground” 24 10/17/2016 Climate in Earth History– Key Points We know a great deal about climate change over Earth’s history based on numerous climate “proxies” The Earth’s past gives us important insights into the impacts of rapid climate change When we look at the past, what stands out about the present is the rate of climate change Uncharted Territory Ahead 25 10/31/2016 Climate Change from the Marine Perspective: Impacts and Signals from High Latitudes Dr. Dave DeMaster Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences North Carolina State University October 5th, 2016 Climate Change Themes Discussed Today - CO2 in the Atmosphere (Past and Present) - Global Temperature Changes through Time: Natural and Anthropogenic - The Carbon Cycle: Forcing and Budgets - Ocean Acidification - Impacts of Climate Change in High Latitudes * Sea Ice Abundance and Sea Ice Formation * Ocean Circulation and Climate Change * Sea Level Rise and Climate Change * Melting of Continental Ice Sheets - Climate Change Impacts Closer to Home: North Carolina - The latest Global Climate Change Agreement: The Paris Agreement - Counteracting Climate Change: What you can do. 1 10/31/2016 There is Some Urgency in Taking Action to Limit Green House Gas Emissions and Limit Climate Change Remaining Supplies of Fossil Fuels Oil Nat. Gas Coal 40 Years 80 Years 1000 Years Renewables: 13% of total power (19% of electricity generation) Nuclear: 15% of total power Fossil Fuel: >70% of total power The Ice Core Record: (A Geological Time Perspective of Atmospheric CO2) Drilling at Vostoc, Antarctica 2 10/31/2016 GlacialInterglacial Temperature changes correspond to ~4-5 degrees C in global temperature change. The Ice Core Record Shows a Clear Correlation between CO2 Content of the Atmosphere and High-Latitude Temperature. The Earth Has Performed the Greenhouse Experiment for Us, Dozens of Times (although Rush Limbaugh won’t admit it)!!! Natural versus Anthropogenic changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. 3 10/31/2016 2-3 miles thick The World Was Very Different 18,000 y ago When Global Temperatures Were Just 4-5 degrees C colder. How Much Will it Change, When the Earth is 3-4 Degrees Warmer in the next 50-100 years? How Well Do We Understand the Processes Causing Climate Change? Pretty well, especially with regard to CO2 forcing! IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Figure TS.5 Figure TS.5 4 10/31/2016 How Have Global Temperatures Varied Over the Past 100 to 1000 years? Remember Al Gore and “Inconvenient Truth”? Most of the temperature increase since the late 1800’s was coming out of a Little Ice Age (not human induced) Why Do Scientists Believe that Humankind has Contributed to Global Warming? When did this first start to occur? BOTTOM LINE… most warming in recent decades is due to people! Grey = model Red = data We must incorporate both natural and anthropogenic forcing to match the observed changes in Temperature 5 10/31/2016 Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities, averaged globally for the decade 2005–2014 (GtCO2/yr) The Global Carbon Project is the best resource to get up-to-date information on the global carbon cycle and climate change. It’s website is: www.globalcarb onproject.org Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 Global carbon budget The carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 6 10/31/2016 Global carbon budget The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870 Sources and Sinks for CO2 in the Atmosphere . Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 The remaining carbon quota for 66% chance <2°C The total remaining emissions from 2014 to keep global average temperature change below 2°C (900GtCO2) will be used in ~20 years at current emission rates. Likely emissions (past and future) necessary to have a 66% chance of keeping the global temperature change <2oC (as a result of human activity). Grey: Total quota for 2°C. Green: Removed from quota. Blue: remaining quota. With projected 2015 emissions, this remaining quota drops to 865 Gt CO2 Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 7 10/31/2016 Breakdown of global emissions by country Emissions from Annex B countries have slightly declined since 1990 Emissions from non-Annex B countries have increased rapidly in the last decade Which countries (past and present) have emitted most of the CO2 to the atmosphere? USA, you are the world leader (cumulatively)! Annex B countries had emission commitments in the Kyoto Protocol (excluding Canada and USA) Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 Total global emissions by source Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950 What is the source of the CO2 in the atmosphere? A combination of coal, oil and natural gas. Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 8 10/31/2016 of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2005-2014) FateFate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2005-2014 average) 33.0±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91% 16.0±0.4 GtCO2/yr 44% Atmospheric Accumulation Burning Fossil Fuels Sources Land-Use Change Partitioning 9.5±2.9 GtCO2/yr 26% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components Land Sink (by difference) 30% 10.9±1.8 GtCO2/yr 3.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9% Oceanic Uptake Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 Changes in the budget over time The sinks have continued to grow with increasing emissions, but climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere Sources Data: GCP Sinks Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 9 10/31/2016 Uptake of CO2 by the Ocean comes at a cost: Ocean Acidification The causes of Ocean Acidification and Global Climate Change are the same! Increased addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and ocean. The lower the pH the more acidic the water! 10 10/31/2016 Ocean Acidification makes it much harder for these CaCO3 biota to make their hard parts (shells and skeletons). C O C C O L I T H (10 um) B I V A L V E S (600 um) F O R A M C O R A L Interested in Any Further Reading on Ocean Acidification? The references for two of the best articles are: Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem Annual Review of Marine Science Vol. 1: 169-192 (Volume publication date January 2009) DOI: 10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834 11 10/31/2016 Predicted Temperature Changes from Doubling Atmospheric CO2 Levels Warming in the future is predicted to be most extensive during winter in the high latitudes! Sea Ice in the Arctic is Disappearing at an Alarming Rate! Arctic sea ice cover at record low updated 3:20 p.m. EDT, Tue September 11, 2007 CNN BOULDER, Colorado (CNN) -- Ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, long held to be an early warning of a changing climate, has shattered the all-time low record this summer, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder. It is possible that Arctic sea ice could decline even further this year before the onset of winter. Using satellite data and imagery, NSIDC now estimates the Arctic ice pack covers 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles) -- equal to just less than half the size of the United States. This figure is about 20 percent less than the previous all-time low record of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) set in September 2005. Most researchers had anticipated that the complete disappearance of the Arctic ice pack during summer months would happen after the year 2070, he said, but now, "losing summer sea ice cover by 2030 is not unreasonable." 12 10/31/2016 In Fact, Arctic Sea Ice is Melting Faster than the Global Warming Models Predict!!! This figure illustrates the extent to which Arctic sea ice is melting faster than projected by computer models. The dotted line represents the average rate of melting indicated by computer models, with the blue area indicating the spread among the different models (shown as plus/minus one standard deviation). The red line shows the actual rate of Arctic ice loss based on observations. The observations have been particularly accurate since 1979 because of new satellite technology. (Illustration by Steve Deyo, ©UCAR). In Addition to Sea Ice Melting, Some of the Polar Ice Caps Are Beginning to Show Signs of Melting Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet descending into a moulin. The moulin is a nearly vertical shaft worn in the glacier by surface water, which carries the water to the base of the ice sheet and then on to the ocean. (Photo courtesy of Roger Braithwaite and Jay Zwally.) 13 10/31/2016 Bottom Water Formation Occurs in Areas of Sea Ice Formation (such as the North Atlantic Ocean and the Antarctic Weddell Sea). Diminished Sea Ice Production (as a result of global warming) may change the heat transport pathways for the planet! As both sea ice and ice shelves diminish, less bottom water formation occurs, which may affect the global thermohaline circulation of the ocean. This conveyor belt brings warm surface water to Europe (in our Gulf Stream), so less bottom water formation may affect temperatures in Europe. Is There Any Evidence That Bottom Water Formation and Climate Change May Be Correlated? 13,000 years ago a massive ice sheet covering Canada melted as the climate warmed. This released lots of freshwater to the North Atlantic, which decreased bottom water formation (and the “conveyor belt”), which led to several thousand years (Younger Dryas) of cooling in Europe. 14 10/31/2016 Another Serious Ramification of Global Warming is Sea Level Rise! IPCC Report, 2012 Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate how much the sea level will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica. In early drafts, scientists predicted a sea level rise of no more than 58 centimeters (23 inches) by 2100, but that does not include the polar ice sheet melts, which recently show signs of melting. What Happens to Sea Level if Greenland and the Antarctic Ice Sheets Melt? Continental Ice Sheet Equivalent Sea Level Rise Greenland Ice Sheet 5 meters West Antarctic Ice Sheet 6 meters East Antarctic Ice Sheet 70 meters Result: Raleigh becomes ocean-front property!! Even if 1-3% of this ice melts, it will have a significant impact on sea level! 15 10/31/2016 How Sensitive Are We Here in North Carolina to Sea Level Rise? --Very High! Hurricane Dennis Other Evidence of Climate Change Here in the Carolinas! From the Raleigh News and Observer: January 31st, 2012 -- One day of warm or cold does not provide good evidence of a long-term trend, such as climate. However, decadal changes in agriculture (and temperature) are good integrators of the global warming process. 16 10/31/2016 In the Antarctic (90% of the World’s Ice), What Ice Sheet is the Most Vulnerable to Global Warming? The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (corresponding to 6 m of sea level rise) is surrounded by warming waters. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing some of the most rapid warming on the planet! The proverbial “Canary in the Coal Mine”! Recent Breakup of Antarctic Ice Shelves 17 10/31/2016 Why is the Breakup of Antarctic Ice Shelves Such a Big Concern? The big concern about Antarctic ice shelves melting is that they may be holding the continental ice sheets back from moving to the ocean, where they may experience warmer temperatures and increased melting (leading to higher rates of sea level rise). Dr. D’s Research 18 10/31/2016 Ice shelves, especially those on the Antarctic Peninsula, are exhibiting increased calving and melting. This figure shows the location of all of the ice shelves surrounding Antarctica. Note that the ones that are melting, as well as the biggest ones, are associated with the West Antarctic regime, which is experiencing rapid warming as a result of Climate Change. (Since 1992 Conv. Cl. Change) COP21/CMP11 (Kyoto 1997) The Paris Agreement For the USA, who was the only industrialized country in the world that didn’t ratify the Kyoto Protocol, THIS IS A BIG DEAL!!! Adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015 Signed 22 April 2016 (Earth Day) in New York City Status: Not in Effect Yet! 19 10/31/2016 The Paris Agreement is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020. The language of the agreement was negotiated by representatives of 195 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015. The Aims of the Paris Agreement are: 1) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; (2) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; (3) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. "Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible“. The Paris deal is the world’s first comprehensive climate agreement (sort of). The Paris Agreement: What People Want A Global Perspective 20 10/31/2016 The Paris Agreement: Limitations Nationally determined contributions and their limits The contribution that each individual country should make in order to achieve the worldwide goal are determined by all countries individually and called "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs). Article 3 requires them to be "ambitious", and should be reported every five years. Each further ambition should be more ambitious than the previous one, known as the principle of 'progression'. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions pledged during the 2015 Climate Change Conference as the initial Nationally determined contribution. However the 'contributions' themselves are not binding as a matter of international law, as they lack the specificity, normative character, or obligatory language necessary to create binding norms. Furthermore, there will be no mechanism to force a country to set a target in their NDC by a specific date and no enforcement if a set target in an NDC is not met. There will be only a "name and shame" system. 2015 Paris Agreement: Status Currently, there are 191 signatories to the Paris Agreement. Of these, 62 Parties to the Convention have also deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance or approval accounting in total for 52 % of the total global greenhouse gas emissions. Party or signatory Percentage of greenhouse gases for ratification Date of signature Brazil 2.48% 22 April 2016 China 20.09% 22 April 2016 India 4.10% 22 April 2016 United States 17.89% 22 April 2016 Marshall Islands 0.00% 22 April 2016 Total 98.20% 191 Date of deposit of instruments of Ratification or Accession 21 September 2016 3 September 2016 2 October 2016 3 September 2016 22 April 2016 62 (52% of global emissions) 21 10/31/2016 The emission pledges (INDCs) of the top-4 emitters Indirectly, the USA and the other 3 top emitters are asking the rest of the world to stop emitting CO2 by 2030 or let the world experience temperature changes of 2oC or more. The emission pledges from the US, EU, China, and India leave little room for other countries to emit in a 2°C emission budget (66% chance) Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015 What Can We Do To Counteract Global Warming and Ocean Acidification? • Stay informed about the scientific advances in global climate change and ocean acidification science (i.e., this course). • Don’t believe everything that you hear (e.g., D. Trump) or you read (e.g., Michael Crichton’s State of Fear). Critical Thinking! • Burning of all fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere (coal is the least efficient). • Ethanol in our gasoline is better than burning pure gasoline (but it still adds CO2 to the atmosphere). • Support non-carbon emitting forms of energy production such as photo-voltaic/solar, wind energy, or nuclear power. • Be conscious of your individual carbon foot print and try to keep it to a minimum (e.g., walk or bike more, eat local food). • Be careful of new fads in fossil fuel energy production (e.g., “fracking” and “clean coal” (there is lots of spin out there). 22 10/31/2016 These High-Latitude Ecosystems Are Quite Fragile – But They Accommodate Some of the Most Spectacular Fauna on the Planet. Go Wolfpack! 23 10/30/2016 Speaking of Climate Change: Social, Political, and Cultural Dimensions William Kinsella Department of Communication North Carolina State University [email protected] Our Changing Climate Osher Lifelong Learning Institute 12 October 2016 Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 1 [email protected] Slides and handout prepared for limited distribution in connection with NCSU-Osher Lifelong Learning Institute class, Fall 2016 1 10/30/2016 Clarification: No Crystal Ball • “What do the climate changes portend for future society, in the days of our children and grandchildren?” • “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” — attributed to Yogi Berra • “Path dependence” and “lock-in” Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] • • • • • • • • • 3 Overview A social science & humanities perspective A communication & rhetoric perspective Living in a risk society Anthropogenic climate change: the Anthropocene epoch? Climate change as a societal challenge Climate change as a political challenge Climate change as a communication challenge Closing thoughts Discussion Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 4 2 10/30/2016 A Social Science and Humanities Perspective • Natural sciences: law-governed world, prediction, control, positive knowledge • Social sciences: rule-governed world (at best), understanding, improvement, discursive/narrative knowledge • Humanities: poetic world, connection, empathy, emotive/aesthetic/narrative knowledge • Interdisciplinarity: collaboration across these boundaries Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 5 A Communication and Rhetoric Perspective • Models of communication: -- information transfer (a limited model) -- cooperation, negotiation, coordination -- dialog -- creates knowledge -- makes a social (and material!) world • Rhetoric, not “mere rhetoric” • Rhetoric as basis for action under conditions of uncertainty • All communication is political communication Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 6 3 10/30/2016 Rhetoric and Democracy “The good [citizen] speaking well” (Quintillian) The Raging Grannies, Step It Up climate action event Raleigh, NC, 14 April 2007 (image: W. J. Kinsella) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 7 Living in a Risk Society “Risk Society” and “Reflexive Modernity” (Beck) • Historical organizing principle for society: how to create and distribute resources (production, distribution, consumption) • New organizing principle: how to manage and distribute risks • Concept of “risk” is a modern invention, parallels rise of industrial society • Reflexive, self-produced risks require societal reflexivity • Climate change as “emancipatory catastrophe”? Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 8 4 10/30/2016 The Anthropocene Epoch? “Considering . . . [the] major and still growing impacts of human activities on earth and atmosphere…it seems to us more than appropriate to emphasize the central role of mankind in geology and ecology by proposing to use the term ‘anthropocene’ for the current geological epoch.” — Crutzen & Stoermer (2000) “The Anthropocene could be said to have started in the latter part of the eighteenth century, when [later] analyses of air trapped in polar ice showed the beginning of growing global concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. This date also happens to coincide with James Watt’s design of the steam engine in 1784.” — Crutzen (2002) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 9 The Anthropocene Epoch? “Official recognition of the concept would invite crossdisciplinary science. And it would encourage a mindset that will be important not only to fully understand the transformation now occurring but to take action to control it.…Humans may yet ensure that these early years of the Anthropocene are a geological glitch and not just a prelude to a far more severe disruption. But the first step is to recognize, as the term Anthropocene invites us to do, that we are in the driver’s seat.” (Nature, 2011, p. 254) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 10 5 10/30/2016 Path Dependence and “Lock-in” Past Wood Present Future Coal/Oil/Gas ? Energy Technologies Coal Transportation Technologies Horse Steam engine Agrarian Petroleum Social Organization Urban Suburban Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] ? ? 11 Path Dependence and “Lock-in” Past Present Anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic Future uncertainties Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 12 6 10/30/2016 Narratives of Climate Change Stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance (Kubler-Ross, 1969) • Individual vs. collective psychology • Individuals at different stages re: climate change • Seidel & Keyes (1983), Can we delay a greenhouse warming? Schneider (1989), Global warming Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 13 Narratives of Climate Change Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU) • Manufactured uncertainty (Oreskes & Conway) • Consensus vs. unanimity • Equal time journalism • Deploying contrarian scientists • Details vs. big picture • Cherry-picking examples • Weather vs. climate • Discrediting the messenger (e.g., “Climategate”) Supertramp, “Crisis? What crisis?” (1975) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 14 7 10/30/2016 Narratives of Climate Change Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU) from Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer. Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 15 Narratives of Climate Change Climate change denial & “business as usual” (BAU) from Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer. Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 16 8 10/30/2016 Narratives of Climate Change Anger at (fill in the blank) Capitalism? Mass consumption? Overpopulation? Industry? Technology? Government? Underregulation? Overregulation? Wealthy nations? Populous nations? Aspiring nations? Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 17 Total and Per Capita CO2 Emissions, 2013 Source: European Commission Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 18 9 10/30/2016 Climate Change as a Societal and Cultural Challenge • Global problem requires global collaboration • Cultural differences -- individualistic vs. communalistic cultures -- concepts of progress, democracy, capitalism, freedom, enterprise -- concepts of community -- concepts of human/nature relationship • Developmental differences -- population growth -- energy choices • Environmental and energy justice Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 19 Climate Change as Political Challenge: US National Level Energy choices (partial list) • Conservation and efficiency (green design, efficiency • • • • • standards, grid improvements, smart grid) Renewable sources: -- wind (onshore and offshore) -- solar (thermal and photovoltaic) -- hydro, tidal, wave, ocean thermal, geothermal Improved fossil fuels? (natural gas, carbon capture & storage) Biofuels (natural and synthetic; food/fuel tradeoffs) Nuclear (cost, safety, waste storage and disposal, proliferation) Role of integrated energy policy and planning Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 20 10 10/30/2016 Climate Wedges (Pacala & Socolow 2004) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 21 Climate Change as Political Challenge: US National Level Incentives (partial list): • • • • technology research & development subsidies construction subsidies loan guarantees production tax credits Mandates (partial list) • emissions trading (e.g., cap & trade) • carbon tax • renewable energy portfolios • EPA Clean Power Plan (implementation on hold pending judicial review as of February 2016) Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 22 11 10/30/2016 • • • • Climate Change as Political Challenge: US National Level Tensions with free-market philosophies Economic environment Politics of government scale and scope Anti-regulation discourse and forms of regulation • Polarization of political and public discourse • Politicization of climate science • Role of political leadership • National / state / local levels Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 23 Climate Change as Political Challenge: International Level • International research collaboration (e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, created 1988) • 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Conference of the Parties (COP) • Forging international consensus • Roles and expectations: Developed vs. developing nations, climate equity and justice Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 24 12 10/30/2016 Climate Change as Political Challenge: International Level Paris agreement (COP-21) • 195 party consensus December 2015 (of 193 UN states) • 191 signatures, 77 ratified, as of October 2016 • Effective 4 November 2016 • Limits temperature increase to 1.5-2o above pre-industrial levels • Balances climate response with food production • Encourages global finance measures • Seeks to pass global peak as soon as possible • “Nationally-determined contributions” • Allows international collaboration and pooling Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 25 Climate Change as Communication Challenge • Public opinion -- Yale/GMU Climate Project • Media framing and agenda setting • Communicating complexity • Science & technology communication • Risk communication • Fostering public deliberation and debate • Forums and venues for public debate • Fostering agreement and action (is consensus possible?) • Diverse cultural values and narratives Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 26 13 10/30/2016 Closing Thoughts • Climate change is urgent—requires action • Time has not (yet) run out • Some actions require broad agreement, others do not • Problem requires robust public conversation ↑ source: https://www.co2.earth/ • Actions needed at individual, community, national, and global levels • Global climate change interdependence and shared responsibility Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 27 References • Beck, U. (1992). Risk society: Towards a new modernity. London: Sage. • Carbon brief (2016). https://www.carbonbrief.org/anthropocene-journey-to-new-geologicalepoch • CO2earth. https://www.co2.earth/ • Crutzen, P. J. (2002). Geology of mankind,” Nature, Jan 3, p. 23. • Crutzen. P. J., & Stoermer, E. F. (2000). The Anthropocene. International GeosphereBiosphere Programme Newsletter, 41, p. 17. • European Commission Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ • Farmer, G.T., & Cook, J. (2013). Climate change science: A modern synthesis, Volume 1—The physical climate. Dordrecht: Springer. • Kubler-Ross, E. (1969). On death and dying. New York: Macmillan. • Nature (2011). The human epoch [editorial]. Nature, 473, p. 254. • Oreskes N., Conway E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt. New York: Bloomsbury. • Pacala, S., & Socolow, R. (2004). Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies. Science, 13 August, 968–972. • Schneider, S. H. (1989), Global Warming: Are We Entering the Greenhouse Century? Sierra Club Books. • Seidel, S., & Keyes, D. (1983). Can we delay a greenhouse warming? Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. • Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/ Kinsella / Social-Political-Cultural Dimensions of Climate Change / OLLI / 12 October 2016 / [email protected] 28 14 10/18/2016 OUTLINE Plan for Today’s Class 1. Key Points from Prior Classes Climate Change – Temperature & CO2 Russell Philbrick Historical Records – Beginning to Now Lonnie Leithold Sever Weather – Climate Impacts Anantha Aiyyer High Latitudes – Ocean & Ice Dave DeMaster Future Society – Necessary Changes Bill Kinsella 2. Radiative Processes and Temperature 3. Anthropogenic CO2 a primary cause 4. A Focus on the Models – Global Future Environment Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 5. Today, Future Action – What can we do? Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change Radiation Balance 2. Radiative Processes and Temperature 1 10/18/2016 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007 2 10/18/2016 3. Anthropogenic CO2 is primary cause We have crossed the 400 ppm threshold and must work to return to it in the future. September is normally ~3 ppm/yr the minimum and it was >400 ppm. ~2 ppm/yr ~1 ppm/yr The CO2 concentration will not go below 400 ppm again until after we get our act together. Data through 9 Oct 2016 The oscillation follows the summer/winter conversion of CO2. CO2 Chlorophyll O2 3 10/18/2016 4. A Focus on the Models ‐ Global Future Environment All of the modeling groups show similar features in results 4 10/18/2016 Temperature Change (1861‐1880 Average) Compared with CO2 (Gigaton) Emissions and Projections Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 515 PgC in 2011 790 PgC is limit to stay below 2 degree rise 5 10/18/2016 Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing (W/m2) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) GtC = Gigaton of Carbon = 1015 grams = 3.67 GtCO2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 1 EJ = 1 x 1018 J 1 J = 2.78 x 10‐7 kW‐hr 1 EJ = 2.78 1011 kW‐hr 6 10/18/2016 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs) 7 10/18/2016 1015 Btu = 1 quad = 1.005 EJ 1 EJ = 1 x 1018 J 1 J = 2.78 x 10‐7 kW‐hr 1 EJ = 2.78 1011 kW‐hr Units: G Giga 109 T Tara 1012 P Peta 1015 E Exa 1018 Pg = Gt 1015 grams = 109 tons Tara‐Watt‐ hours (TWh) 8 10/18/2016 PgC = GtC Normal Below Average Above Average Normal Standard 1951‐1980) Extreme Heat Compare with 2004‐2014 Northern Hemisphere Summer Maximum ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 Global Temperature Anomaly (Co) 9 10/18/2016 Global Water Cycle Change 2016 to 2035 Evaporation Evaporation ‐ Precipitation Runoff Soil Moisture Specific Humidity Relative Humidity NASA Drought Prediction https://youtu.be/8ADxIBm0QrA 10 10/18/2016 Have We Passed the Point of No Return on Climate Change? While we may not yet have reached the “point of no return”—when no amount of cutbacks on greenhouse gas emissions will save us from potentially catastrophic global warming—climate scientists warn we may be getting awfully close. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution a century ago, the average global temperature has risen some 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Most climatologists agree that, while the warming to date is already causing environmental problems, another 0.4 degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature, representing a global average atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) of 450 parts per million (ppm), could set in motion unprecedented changes in global climate and a significant increase in the severity of natural disasters—and as such could represent the dreaded point of no return. Greenhouse gas cuts must begin soon or it could be too late to halt global warming The new Paris Agreement (12 Dec 2015) declares a goal of holding the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius if possible, calls for greenhouse gas pollution to be balanced with greenhouse gas removals after 2050, implements a 5‐year cycle of reviews of national plans and actions starting soon as well as monitoring of those actions, and confirms at least $100 billion per year to help those countries most affected by climate changes. It also calls for scientists to weigh in on how exactly the world might aim for 1.5 degree C given that temperatures are already up 1 degree C in 2015—the hottest year on record. Global greenhouse gas pollution must peak "as soon as possible," the pact states. The first official global "stocktake" of efforts to meet all these ambitions of the Paris Pact will occur in 2023. Now, this Paris pact is a reality since 55 nations, representing >55 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution, accepted it (threshold 5 Oct 2016, in force 4 Nov 2016). 11 10/18/2016 Summary • “Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.” • Changes are projected throughout all climate components, in most cases exceeding natural variations by far. Changes in AR5 are similar to those in AR4 for similar scenarios. • Every ton of CO2 causes about the same amount of warming, no matter when and where it is emitted. • To limit warming to likely less than 2oC as in RCP2.6 requires total emissions since preindustrial to be limited to less than about 790 PgC (515 PgC were emitted by 2011). 5. Today, Future Action – What can we do? Philosophy for Confronting Climate Change What can you do, either as an individual or on a group, do to help reduce the threat and/or mitigate the consequence of climate change? We discussed several possible ideas at the end of the first class. Now is the chance for each of you to put forward your ideas and possible commitments. My list of ideas: 1. Write a letter to President Obama to encourage his support of and his pledge to work for reducing the threat of climate change after his term. 2. Work to educate students and friends about the importance of climate change. 3. Propose a couple of new ideas that I have for research to measure properties that could help explain the increase in severe storms and additional heating. 4. Try to convince deniers of the scientific facts of climate change. 5. Investigate ways to at ways to improve the education of K‐12 students on the subject of climate change. 12 RCPs ‐ Development Aims and Products There were five end‐products expected from development process: 1. Four Representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Four RCPs…produced from IAM scenarios available in the published literature: one high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches >8.5 W/m2 by 2100 and continues to rise for some amount of time; two intermediate “stabilization pathways” in which radiative forcing is stabilized at approximately 6 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2 after 2100; and one pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3 W/m2 before 2100 and then declines. These scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover… 2. RCP‐based climate model ensembles and pattern scaling. Ensembles of gridded, time dependent projections of climate change produced by multiple climate models including atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), Earth system models (ESMs), Earth system models of intermediate complexity, and regional climate models will be prepared for the four long‐term RCPs, and high‐resolution, near‐term projections to 2035 for the 4.5 W/m2 stabilization RCP only. 3. New IAM scenarios. New scenarios will be developed by the IAM research community in consultation with the IAV community exploring a wide range of dimensions associated with anthropogenic climate forcing…Anticipated outputs include alternative socioeconomic driving forces, alternative technology development regimes, alternative realizations of Earth system science research, alternative stabilization scenarios including traditional “not exceeding” scenarios, “overshoot” scenarios, and representations of regionally heterogeneous mitigation policies and measures, as well as local and regional socioeconomic trends and policies… 4. Global narrative storylines. These are detailed descriptions associated with the four RCPs produced in the preparatory phase and such pathways developed as part of Product 3 by the IAM and IAV communities. These global and large‐region storylines should be able to inform IAV and other researchers. 5. Integrated scenarios. RCP‐based climate model ensembles and pattern scaling (Product 2) will be associated with combinations of new IAM scenario pathways (Product 3) to create combinations of ensembles. These scenarios will be available for use in new IAV assessments. In addition, IAM research will begin to incorporate IAV results, models, and feedbacks to produce comprehensively synthesized reference. RCP Primary Characteristics RCP 8.5 was developed using the MESSAGE model and the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria. This RCP is characterized by increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration levels (Riahi et al. 2007). RCP6 was developed by the AIM modeling team at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in Japan. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshoot, by the application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Fujino et al. 2006; Hijioka et al. 2008). RCP 4.5 was developed by the GCAM modeling team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in the United States. It is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshooting the long‐run radiative forcing target level (Clarke et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al. 2009). RCP2.6 was developed by the IMAGE modeling team of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The emission pathway is representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. It is a “peak‐and‐decline” scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m2 by mid‐century, and returns to 2.6 W/m2 by 2100. In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions (and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced substantially, over time (Van Vuuren et al. 2007a)