Download Title: Forest/Environment

Climate change and EU agriculture
Hilkka SUMMA
European Commission,
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
Outline
1) Climate change is happening –
observed effects
2) Impacts on agriculture
3) EU Climate policy – The CAP and
Climate change
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Climate change is
happening and
accelerating …
Climate change is not a
projection
► Many climate impacts are observed today, also in Europe
► Europe has warmed (+ 1°C) faster than global average (almost
0,8°C)
► Global mean temperatures continue to rise. Rates of surface
warming increased since mid-1970s
► The 1990-1999 decade has been the warmest of the century. The
10 hottest years on record have occurred since 1991
► Precipitations increased in northern latitudes over the period
1900-2005 and decreased in the tropics and subtropics since the
1970s
► Extreme weather events have become more frequent, severe, and
costly in all parts of the world
– Increased frequency of heavy precipitations
– More intense and longer droughts since 1970
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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30as Jornadas de productos fitosanitarios - Barcelona 21 October 2008
5
Trend in mean annual
rainfall during 19001998
Significant decrease of rainfall during the last century in the Mediterranean area
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Projected precipitation
changes
Changes in yearly and
seasonal precipitation
patterns  too much
too little
  winter rainfall
and  in summer
  variability of
rainfall in NorthWest EU, but little
change in overall
precipitation
  in yearly
average
precipitation in
Southern areas
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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EU agriculture will
also be affected…
Impacts on Agriculture
+
CO
Longer
growing
season
Carbon dioxide
fertilization
POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS
More
frequent
droughts
Pest
Increased
precipitation
Faster
growing
periods
Heat
stress
-
±
+
2
-
Increased
flooding and
salinization
-
From Tubiello, IIASA, 2007
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Biophysical CC impacts
on agriculture (1)
► Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change
► Some positive effects (north), but mostly adverse
impacts (south)
► The most vulnerable: Mediterranean, south-eastern
► The most critical trends:
 Future precipitation patterns (water stress)
 Incidence of extreme weather events
► In the medium term (2020-2030), significant impacts
from increased frequency and severity of extreme
weather events (droughts, heat waves, storms,
floods)
► Progressively negative impacts after 2050 as
temperature rises
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Biophysical CC impacts on
agriculture (2)
► Indirect effects through impacts on physical and
biological systems
– Soil conditions (organic matter, erosion risk)
– Warming will increase the risk of disease and
change pest patterns
► Environmental side effects: water quality
► Increased water stress:
 Increased irrigation water demand (not only in
current irrigated areas)
 Reduced water availability in many river basins
 Need to save water and adaptive actions
(irrigators)
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Socio-economic aspects
► The projected climatic changes will affect:
- crop yields (level, stability),  risk crop failures
- livestock management
- in the medium term, shifts in crop locations
► Diverse territorial impacts
- risks for farm income and higher income variability
- risks for food supply in some parts of Europe
- land abandonment risk
- increasing disparities between EU rural regions
► Vulnerability to climate change increased by:
 International competition, trade liberalisation
 Socio- economic challenges (ageing, urbanisation)
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Climate Change: crop yield
projections
A1-medium
B2-medium

30as Jornadas de productos fitosanitarios - Barcelona 21 October 2008
Source: JRC/IES EAGLE study
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Effects 2003 heat wave
and drought on wheat
yields
• Yields have increased in the last 40 years (technological progress)
• Yield (and output) are two of the main components of risk in agriculture and
often related to adverse weather conditions, plant diseases and pests
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EU Climate policy –
The CAP and Climate
change
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EU climate policy
► Emphasis on commitments on GHG reductions
- Kyoto commitments: 8% reduction by 2012 (EU-15)
- Communication: “Limiting global cc to 2°C” (2007)
- Council conclusions (March 2007): commitment to 20%
reduction by 2020 – 30% within an international agreement
- “Climate and energy package” january 2008:
- Review of the Emission Trading System (ETS)
- Effort Sharing in non-ETS sectors – proposal for decision
- Communication on post-Kyoto commitments in preparation
(“The Road to Copenhagen”)
► Adaptation as an emerging policy area
- Green Paper on adaptation (July 2007)
- White Paper – EU adaptation strategy (early 2009)
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Climate adaptation 
emerging policy field at
EU level
►July 2007- EU “Green Paper”- launches the debate
on adapting to climate change
– Concludes that adaptation efforts need to be stepped up at
all levels and in all sectors and need to be well-coordinated
– Early adaptation reduces costs
– Integrate adaptation in existing environmental and sectoral
EU policies and Community funding programmes, including
the CAP
– Expand knowledge on climate change impacts and
adaptation options
– Develop EU coordinated adaptation strategies.
►Early 2009: Communication (White Paper)
proposals for an EU adaptation Strategy
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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CAP and Climate change
► Double challenge:
- Reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture
- Adaptation to impacts of climate change
► Contribution to mitigation:
- Emissions from agriculture: 20% reduction 19902006 (all sectors 8%)
- A further 15% reduction projected by 2010
- Evolution of the CAP: less incentives for intensive
agriculture
- Environmental legislation:
 Water protection (WFD), emission ceilings (NEC)
 Cross-compliance – GAEC for soil protection
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Main drivers of the
declining emissions
trend in agriculture
105
100
95
N fertilisers
90
85
80
Cattle
75
70
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Fertiliser and manure use
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
Cattle numbers
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CAP and adaptation
► The recent wave of CAP reforms characterised by:
 a shift from market intervention to direct producer
support (decoupled from production)
 increased support for rural development
► Decoupling extended in recent reforms: sugar
(2006), fruits and vegetables (2007); Health Check
► This should facilitate the adaptation of the
agricultural sector and rural areas by:
 giving greater flexibility in the production
decisions – market and agronomic factors
 securing farm income
 facilitating the adjustment of farm sector –
structures and production methods
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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The adaptation
challenge
► Farmers have long proved their capacity to adapt to new
challenges
► In the medium term, adaptation may require planned changes
in:
 production methods – plant protection
 land use
 farm structures and strategies, with
 significant costs
► The challenge is to guarantee sustainability of European
agriculture and rural areas
 resilience to climate change; economic and social viability
 coherence with environmental protection
►
Adaptation strategies needed on EU, national and regional
levels
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Role of rural
development
Climate
change one of
the priorities
2007-2013
Mitigation and
adaptation
options in all
axes
Axis 1
 Farm modernization
 Restoring & prevention
 Farm advisory services
 Training
Axis 2
 Agri-environmental measures
 Conservation genetic resources
 Payments linked to WFD
 Afforestation
Axis 3
 Diversification into nonagricultural activities
Leader
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Conclusions
► Farming is very vulnerable to climate change, increased
by socio-economic pressures
► Global warming, but local impacts
► Adaptation has to deal not only with changing
temperature and rainfall, but also by increasing variability,
more extreme events
► Adaptation planning is challenging: uncertainties,
interaction climate / agronomic factors, long planning
horizon, + and  effects in the same area
► Future adjustments of the CAP will need to integrate
climate adaptation concerns and water management
► Provide positive incentives to farmers to adapt to new
environment
European Countryside Movement – Brussels 13.11.2008
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Thank you for your attention
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