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Transcript
The science of climate change Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government British Council/Warsaw University Centre for Environmental Studies 30 March 2005 The earth’s energy budget Source: NASA Carbon cycles Glacial cycles of past 800,000 years Source: Nature Vol 429 Carbon dioxide levels over the last 60,000 years 379ppm 2004 Source University of Berne and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Simulated global warming Temperature rise degrees C 1.0 Observed simulated by model 0.5 0.0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Hadley Centre Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C Annual European summer temperatures 4 3 Annual average Smoothed trend Model – natural factors only Summer 2003 value 2 1 0 1900 1950 2000 Source: Hadley Centre Possible flooding in the UK by 2080s Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project – key findings • Continuing with existing policies is not an option – risk becomes unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4 scenarios considered • The risks can be reduced to present day levels using a broad portfolio of responses • There are difficult decisions to be taken: – Invest more in sustainable approaches – Adapt to increased flooding Mitigation - creating a low carbon economy • UK White Paper published February 2003. Overall objectives are: – To put the UK on a path to cut CO2 emissions by some 60% by 2050, with real progress by 2020 – To maintain the reliability of energy supplies – To promote competitive markets in the UK and beyond – To tackle fuel poverty Improved energy efficiency… …and a diverse mix of renewables G8 and EU challenges • Climate Change is a UK priority for G8 and EU Presidencies in 2005 (African development is the other key priority) • Climate change is a global problem and requires a global response – Kyoto, European Emissions trading • Clear vision of energy futures required to enable global collaboration to move forward • Science, engineering and technology have key roles to play
