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Climate Change Elements for a discussion IFAD Rome, May 18-19, 2007 Alejandro Deeb % change in runoff by 2050 Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become significantly drier Globally there will be more precipitation Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, northern Brazil, west and south Africa) Some climate change issues Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry spells; less ground water recharge Projections for increased number of rainy days (left) and amount of rain per wet day (Right) for 2041-2060 period based on modeling (HadRM2) Fewer rainy days But heavier rain Europe: Changing flood frequency Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change Over much of Europe “one in a hundred year floods” will occur every couple of decades Mountain water systems South America: Yanamarey Glacier, Peru 1982 1997 1987 2005 Retreat in volume and area of the Chacaltaya glacier (Bolivia) since 1940 Source: Francou, 2004 Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Caribbean for August 2005 (0.5 Celsius isothermals above 1961-1990 average) Source: IRI, 2005 The Greenhouse Effect Met Office Hadley Centre Strong Global Warming Observed Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Based on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003) Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850: Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre) Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950 25 Gt CO2 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1875 Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), published in 2000 The A1 storyline and scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter and, in several variations of it, the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence between regions, capacity-building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. A1 is subdivided into A1FI (fossil-fuel intensive), A1T (high-technology), and A1B (balanced), with A1FI generating the most CO2 emissions and A1T the least (of the A1 storyline, and the second lowest emissions of all six marker scenarios). But even in the A1T world, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 still near a doubling of preindustrial levels by 2100. For a contrasting vision of the world’s social and technological future, SRES offers the B1 storyline, which is (marginally) the lowest-emissions case of all the IPCC’s scenarios. The storyline and scenario family is one of a converging world with the same global population as A1, peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter, but with more rapid change in economic structures towards service and information economies, which is assumed to cause a significant decrease in energy intensity. The B1 world finds efficient ways of increasing economic output with less material, cleaner resources, and more efficient technologies. Many scientists and policymakers have doubted whether a transition to a B1 world is realistic and whether it can be considered equally likely when compared to the scenarios in the A1 family. The IPCC did not discuss probabilities of each scenario, making a riskmanagement framework for climate policy problematic since risk is probability times consequences. Dangerous climate 0.6 C 0.6 C 0.7 C 1.0 C 1.6 C 2-3 C 4 C • Coral bleaching West Antarctic losing ice Kilimanjaro glacier gone Tropical Glacier in the Andes gone Onset of melting of Greenland Collapse of Amazon rainforest Collapse of THC current Source: Exeter Conference, 2005 Where is it coming from? Country USA EU-25 Germany Japan China India Mexico Brazil Total Total (BTA) 6.9 4.7 1.0 1.3 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.8 33.6 Source: WRI, 2006 Ton/GDP ton/$Mpp 720 450 470 400 1020 770 590 680 Ton/cap 24.6 10.5 12.3 10.4 3.9 1.9 5.2 5.0 To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries must be part of the solution Source IPPC SPACC MACC ACCC CPACC Building awareness and strengthening knowledge base Creating an enabling environment for adaptation Adaptation Implementation Public Awareness and Participation Implementation Institutions Policy Knowledge Base Public Awareness and Participation Implementation Institutions Policy • Policy framework for Public Awareness and Participation Institutions Knowledge Base Policy Knowledge Base • Building Awareness. • Building monitoring and analysis capability • Building planning capacity in institutions • Developing national policy framework for adaptation. • Mainstreaming climate change issues into key sector activities. • Preparation of pilot adaptation projects. • Further strengthening of awareness andparticipation. • Further strengthening of knowledge base adaptation in place • Projects being implemented. • Awareness and participation high. • Monitoring, analysis and planning integrated throughout all national and sectoral planning .