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The Science and Politics of
Climate Change
Fresh from the Hague
Robert T. Watson
Chief Scientist & Director, ESSD
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
December 6, 2000 - MC 12 Floor Gallery - 1:00 p.m.
Annual Temperature Trends,
(°C / century) 1901-1999
Source: P. Jones, et. al. 2000.
Global Temperature Observations
Annual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999
1.0
Change in temperature (°C)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
–0.2
1860
1880
1900
1920
The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
1940
1960
1980
2000
Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH)
Temperature Reconstruction (blue) and Instrumental Data (red) from
AD 1000-1999
Source: Mann et al. 1999.
Precipitation Trends (%)
per Decade (1900-1994)
Green • = increasing
/ Brown
• = decreasing
Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane
Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times
Carbon dioxide: 33% rise
The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.
Methane: 100% rise
Comparison of Temperature Observations
and Model Simulations
Source: Tett, et.al., 1999 and Stott, et.al., 2000.
Percent of the Continental U.S. with A Much
Above Normal Proportion of Total Annual
Precipitation From 1-day Extreme Events
(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)
Source: Karl, et.al. 1996.
SRES Scenarios
Schematic Illustration of SRES Scenarios
Economic
A2
A1
Global
Regional
B1
B2
og
y
(La
Te c h n
ivin
ol
er g
nd
Dr
A
En
ulat i
on
y
ic ulture
gr
-use)
P
op
Eco nom
Environmental
y
e
c
r
o
g F
s
Scenarios
1990
2100
• Population (billion)
5.3
7.0 - 15.1
• World GDP (1012 1990US$/yr)
21
235 - 550
16.1
1.5 - 4.2
• Final energy intensity (106J/US$)a
16.7
1.4 - 5.9
• Primary energy (1018 J/US$)
351
514 - 2226
• Share of coal in primary energy (%)a
24
1 - 53
• Share of zero carbon in
primary energy (%)a
18
28 - 35
• Per capita income ratio:
developed countries to
developing countries
a
1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with
SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider noncommercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.
Global CO2 Emissions from
Energy & Industry
Total database range
8
A2
IS92 range
2
0
1900
Median
A1, B2
1990 range
(all scenarios)
B1
5%
Minimum in Database
1950
2000
2050
Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.
2100
Non-classified
4
Non-intervention
95%
Maximum in
Database
6
Intervention
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
SRES Scenarios and Database Range
(index, 1990=1)
10
250
200
Range of sulfur-control
scenarios in the database
Maximum in database
150
IS92
100
1990 range
A2
A1
B2
50
B1
Minimum in database
0
1930
1960
1990
2020
2050
Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.
2080
2100
Sulfur - control
Global Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
(MtS)
Total database range
Sulfur - non-control, and non-classified scenarios
Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS)
Projected Change in Global Mean
Surface Temperature from Models using
the SRES Emissions Scenarios
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
SAR
Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures
for the 2050s
The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the
climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1%
increase per year in CO2.
The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation
for the 2050s
The projected change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the
climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1%
increase per year in CO2.
The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
The 1997/98 El Niño
Strongest on Record*
El Niño years
La Niña years
*As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the
eastern tropical Pacific off Peru.
Northern Hemisphere Winter
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Annual Runoff
Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.
University of Southampton.
Crop Yield Change
Percentage change in average
crop yields for the climate
change scenario. Effects of
CO2 are taken into account.
Crops modeled are: wheat,
maize and rice.
Jackson Institute, University College
London / Goddard Institute for Space
Studies / International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis
97/1091 16
Climate Change and
Ecological Systems
•
•
Biological systems have already been affected by
changes in climate at the regional scale
The structure and functioning of ecological
systems will be altered and the biological diversity
will decrease
 forests, especially Boreal forests are vulnerable due


to changes in disturbance regimes (pests and fires)
coral reefs are threatened by increases in
temperature
the current terrestrial uptake of carbon will likely
diminish over time and forest systems may even
become a source of carbon
Vector (insect)-borne Diseases
Disease
Malaria
Schistosomiasis
Filariasis
Onchocerciasis
(river blindness)
African
trypanosomiasis
(sleeping sickness)
Dengue
Yellow fever
Likely
Very likely
Vector
Population
at risk
(millions)
Present distribution
Likelihood of
altered
distribution
with warming
mosquito
water snail
mosquito
black fly
2,100
600
900
90
(sub)tropics
(sub)tropics
(sub)tropics
Africa/Latin America




tsetse fly
50
tropical Africa

mosquito
mosquito
unavailable
unavailable
tropics
tropical South
America & Africa




Source: Modified WHO, as cited in Stone (1995).
People at Risk from
a 44 cm Sea-level Rise by the 2080s
Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection
Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts:
A Global Perspective.
Sea Level Rise Commitment
Thermal expansion and land ice melt
after an initial 1% increase in CO2 for 70 years
The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
Co-Benefits - Adaptation
• Many sectors (e.g., water resources and agriculture) are
vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods and
droughts associated with ENSO events
• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can
reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate
variability and can increase resilience to long-term
climate change
 incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events into
sector management decisions
 integrated multi-sector watershed management and
appropriate water pricing policies
 elimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies
 infrastructure design (e.g., buildings, bridges, roads)
Percentage Change in Emissions
from 1990 to 2010
130%
125%
120%
Parties' projections
115%
SRES A1F1
110%
SRES A1T
Evolution in %
Annex II
105%
SRES A1B
100%
SRES A2
Annex I
95%
SRES B1
SRES B2
90%
OECD
85%
IEA
EIT
US source LG
80%
US source REF
75%
US source HG
70%
EU source
65%
Average
60%
55%
50%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Energy Emission Pathways and
Stabilization Concentrations
Source: IPCC. 1995. Second Assessment Report. Working Group I. Cambridge.
Mitigation Options
• Supply Side
Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas)
Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%)
Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.)
Carbon dioxide sequestration
Nuclear power
• Demand Side
Transportation
Commercial and residential buildings
Industry
• Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation
Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management
Agroforestry
• Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions
Policy Instruments
• Policies, which may need regional or international
agreement, include:
Energy pricing strategies and taxes
Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions
Internalizing environmental extranalities
Tradable emissions permits--domestic and global
Voluntary programs
Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards
Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-up
Education and training such as product advisories and labels
• Accelerated development of technologies as well as
understanding the barriers to diffusion into the
marketplace requires intensified R&D by governments
and the private sector
Fuel For Thought:
Strategy for The Year 2000
Carbon
Trading
JI
More
Renewables
More
GEF
Clean
Technology
Economic
Instruments
Sector
Reform
Internalizing
Global Externalities
(supporting the postKyoto process)
Environmental
Standards
Energy
Efficiency
Local/Regional
Pollution
Abatement
(to be
Regional
Agreements strengthened)
Clean
Fuel
Rural
Energy
Win-Win
(in place)
Co-Benefits - Mitigation
• Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change
mitigation
• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can
simultaneously address local and regional
environmental issues and climate change
energy sector
• indoor and outdoor air quality
• regional acid deposition
transportation sector
• outdoor air pollution
• traffic congestion
agriculture and forestry
• soil fertility
• biodiversity and related ecological goods and services
Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)
Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient
Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992;
EPA, AIRS database.
Health Costs (TSP in China)
Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.
Energy Supply
Sustained Growth Scenario
exajoules
Surprise
1500
Geoth.
Solar
Biomass
1000
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
500
Gas
Oil & NGL
Coal
Trad Bio.
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
Source: Shell International Limited.
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Key Conclusions
•
The Earth’s climate is changing - temperatures and sea level
are increasing, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers are
retreating, Arctic sea ice is thinning
•
Human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases
•
The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human
activities, are at least in part, the cause of the observed
changes in climate
•
The Earth’s mean annual surface temperature is projected to
increase by about 1.5 to 6.0 degrees centigrade between 1990
and 2100, with land areas warming more than the oceans precipitation patterns will change - sea level projected to rise
about 50 cm (15-95 cm) by 2100
Key Conclusions
• Projected changes in climate will affect:
 water resources, especially in arid and semiarid lands
 agricultural productivity, especially in the
tropics and sub-tropics
 the structure and functioning, hence the goods
and services, of ecological systems
 human settlements due to sea level rise
 human health, e.g, vector-borne diseases
Key Conclusions
•
•
A change in the Earth’s climate is inevitable
•
Adaptation strategies can be adopted to reduce the
vulnerability of socio-economic systems,
ecological systems and human health to today’s
climate variability and long-term human-induced
climate change
The magnitude and rate of climate change will
depend upon the adoption of policies, practices
and technologies that influence greenhouse gas
emissions
Key Issues at COP-6
While there were significant differences between the
European Union and the Umbrella Group (US, Japan,
Canada, Australia) agreement was almost achieved in
the Hague. A number of issues of concern to
developing countries still need resolution.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Flexibility mechanisms
LULUCF
Financing
Technology transfer
Capacity-building
Compliance
Adaptation
Key Issues at COP-6
Flexibility Mechanisms (Art. 6, 12 and 17)
• capped or uncapped (EU and many developing countries want
a cap in contrast to the US: affecting the size of market)
• secondary markets (EU and many developing countries want to
eliminate secondary markets in the CDM - will decrease size of the
market and incentives for private sector involvement)
• liability if a seller fails to deliver, i.e., seller vs buyer beware
• open market or regional allocations (ability of Africa and
small countries to access the market)
• eligibility of LULUCF activities in CDM (next slide)
• adaptation fee - CDM or all three mechanisms (size of
adaptation fund: ability to mainstream climate change into relevant
sectors; ability to link near-and long-term issues)
Key Issues at COP-6
LULUCF
• Which, if any, LULUCF activities are eligible in the CDM
afforestation, reforestation, slowing deforestation,
forest/rangeland/cropland management, agroforestry
EU and some developing countries wanted to limit/eliminate
LULUCF activities in contrast to the US and other developing
countries (LAC): will affect eligible activities under the PCF
and access to CDM funds for clients
• How to address harvesting/regeneration and aggradation/
degradation (Art. 3.3 or 3.4)
• Whether to limit credits under Article 3.4 (EU and G77+China
want to limit credits in contrast to the US, Canada, Japan)
• Whether the Business-as-usual uptake can be credited (US want
discounted credits - EU and G77+China want no credit)
Key Issues at COP-6
Financing
• New window under the GEF for adaptation--key issue
is who manages the window and establishes priorities-the GEF Council/secretariat or the CDM Executive
Board, accountable to the COP/MOP
• New Convention window under the GEF for technology
transfer, capacity-building, national mitigation
programs, etc. -- key issues are (i) the sources of
funding, e.g., third GEF replenishment, voluntary
contributions, ODA, fee on Article 17, and (ii) guidance
by the COP
• Total annual resources for climate change funding,
including the adaptation and Convention window, of $1
billion
Key Issues at COP-6
Technology Transfer
• Different views between developed and developing
countries
 form an intergovernmental consultative group to
facilitate the sharing of information and assess
approaches to address the barriers to technology
transfer
• Funded under the Convention window of the GEF
Key Issues at COP-6
Capacity Building
• Parties will establish a framework to guide the
choice of activities that will assist Developing
countries implement the Convention and participate
in the Kyoto Protocol
• Funded under the Convention window of the GEF