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Transcript
Climate Change - Science, Society & Us
Graeme I Pearman
April 02, 2012
Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd
Adjunct
Fellow, Monash University
Science Teachers
forResearch
Climate
Awareness
Board, The Climate Institute, START International
•
•
•
•
What is the climate-change issue about?
Observed global change
Risk, mitigation & adaptation
Human dimensions
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
The climate change issue
Energy
supply/demand
Aspirations
Efficiency
Energy
demand
GDP
Climate
change
Emissions
Choice of
technology
Perceptions, conscious
or unconscious of:
• Wellbeing
• Success
Culture,
education,
April 28,
July
02,2011
2012
advertising, promotions
Climate Climate
system impacts
• Vested interests
• Natural resources
• Ignorance
• Market failure
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Human
health
• Risk assessment
• Beliefs
• Ignorance
• Sectoral interests
Pearman (2012):
Aust.J.Environ.Managment
On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and
Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation,
Absorption, and Conduction by John Tyndall: Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Volume 151,
(1861), pp. 1-36
4
Oxygen concentration at Cape Grim, Tasmania
Decline due to combustion of fuels slightly modified
by net growth of global vegetation
0
O2/N2 ratio (per meg)
-100
-200
-300
1990
May 12, 2011
1995
The CEO Circle
Melbourne
2000
2005
Keeling et al. 2007
5
•
•
•
•
What is the climate-change issue about?
Observed global change
Risk, mitigation & adaptation
Human dimensions
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Global average temperature is rising
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Mean air temperature
Average of the past 10 years is in darker grey
Temperature difference (oC)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1910
1920
April 02, 2012
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
1980
1990
2000
2000
Mean sea surface temperature
Temperature difference (oC)
Average of the past 10 years is in darker grey
0.4
0.0
-0.4
1910
April 02, 2012
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
1980
1990
2000
2000
Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements
Change in mean sea level (mm)
40
20
0
-20
http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.
Relative Ice Mass (billion tonnes)
Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements
800
Contributed 0.6
mm/year sea
level rise
400
Contributed 0.4
mm/year sea
level rise
0
-400
-800
2003
2005
2007
2009
2003
Greenland Ice Sheet
2005
Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
2007
2009
It is the high pressure ridge that
dominates much of our climate
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
1900
April 02, 2012
1920
1940
1960
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
1980
2000
Timbal et al. (2009): South Eastern
Australian Climate Initiative
Sub tropical ridge pressure anomaly (hPa, ….)
Global mean temperature anomaly (oC, ▬)
Annual average global temperature & intensity of the
pressure of the subtropical ridge
The Centennial Drought
• 13-year drought in the region is unprecedented in:
– Extent
– Lower year-to-year rainfall variability
– Seasonal pattern of the rainfall decline
• 13% lower rainfall led to a 46% decline in river flow
– 65% of reduction due to the reduced annual rainfall, 7%
to increased temperature, 28% unexplained
• Low autumn and winter/spring rain linked to:
– Broadening Hadley Circulation & subtropical ridge
intensification
– Associated with global warming/greenhouse gases
– Natural variability and ozone depletion also likely
contributing factors
• Increasing rainfall from systems to the north
South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
Rainfall decline in SEA since 1997
20th century
Anomalies 97 - 11
1997-2011
Anomalies 97 - 09
Rainfall (mm/month)
60
40
20
0
-20
Jan
Feb
Hanh Nguyen, CAWCR – BOM
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Planetary biology is changing
E.g. For south-eastern Australian marine fish
• “dramatic” warming
of the oceans has
been observed
• 45 species exhibit
major geographic
shifts thought to be
climate related
April et
02, al.
2012(2010): Global Ecol.
Science
Teachers for Climate
Last
Bigeogr.
Awareness
2.0
5
4
1.5
3
1.0
2
0.5
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
1
Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person-1 y-1)
CO2 emissions (Gt C y-1)
Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
Emissions are on the high side of projections
Dec. 02, 2009
Le Quéré et al. (2009).
10
Global financial crisis
100
8
Asian financial crisis
Collapse of the FSU
6
150
US savings &
loans crisis
Oil crisis
200
4
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Peters et al. (2011): Nature Climate Change: (2011) DOI:doi:10.1038/nclimate1332
Carbon intensity of the economy (g C per $US)
Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Pg C yr-1)
Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009
global financial crisis
•
•
•
•
What is the climate-change issue about?
Observed global change
Risk, mitigation & adaptation
Human dimensions
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Complexity and confidence
(for illustrative purpose only)
Primary
climatechange
drivers
Carbon
dioxide
Temperature
Average
Extremes
Seasonality
Rainfall
Complex &
secondary
outcomes
affected by
magnitude &
frequency
Ecosystem
& human
system
impacts
Growth rates:
Plants and
animals
Drought
Seed quality
Run off
Vernalisation/
seed set
Soil Moisture
Average
Extremes
seasonality
Soil erosions
Humidity
Sea level
Salination
Winds
April 02, 2012
Species
competition
Coastal
inundation
Built
environment
Economic &
environmental outcomes
Crop, pasture &
agriculture
system
productivity
Ecosystem
integrity,
genetic
richness,
resilience
Ecosystem
services
Replacement of
built facilities
Societal risks
Environmental
aesthetics, and
function, Tourism
Key
Vulnerabilities
Natural systems
Water security
Cultural values,
indigenous rights
Human systems
management of
vulnerabilities
Food production,
fisheries, crops,
pastures, horticulture
Fire and drought
Coastal
communities
Bio-security
Human Health
Critical
infrastructure
and threats to
life
Security, wellbeing
National security
Intergenerational
legacy
Increasing complexity of systems
Decreasing confidence of regionality of change projections
Increasing opportunity of adaptive changes to nullify effects
Increasing opportunities for extraneous forcing to influence future
Science Teachers for Climate
Increasing identification
of nature/magnitude of impacts
Awareness
Decreasing confidence in probability of occurrence
Risk arises from multiple directions
(e.g. food sector)
• Change in productive capacity of the land
– Tradeoffs: water, food, fibre, bio-fuels, ecosystems
• Changes to available natural resources
– Ecosystem services, water
• Threats to infrastructure
– Storms, hail, inundation
• Changing impacts globally
– Competitors, suppliers, markets
• Revolutionary changes to energy
– Sources, utilisation and costs
Risk Assessment
Probability of
change
Magnitude/sensitivity
to change
Mitigate
Potential
Exposure
Risk
Spontaneous
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Strategy
Managed
adaptation
Resilience
Ri = f(Pi, Mi)
April 02, 2012
T = Σi=αRi
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
In this state of uncertainty
We have to do the best we can at this point
in time by:
• Managing the risk
• Retaining a portfolio of options
• Keeping options open
• Regular reviewing of policy/approaches in
light of new knowledge
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
2100
22 C
2050
2050
2100
Equil
2050
2100
Equil
2100
Equil
2050
Natural Ecosystems
Food Security
Tourism
Heat related deaths
Agriculture and Forestry
4
Major Infrastructure
5
Energy Security
6
Coastal Communities
7
Water availability
oC
3
2
1
450
Coping Range
Adaptive Capacity
550
750
Ref
Vulnerability
Pearman (2008):
http://www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/consultants_report/downloads/Risk_in_Australia_under_alternative_emissions_futures.pdft.
Sorting the options for holistic strategies
1. Cost
– What are the costs now & when mainstream?
– Of stranded assets?
– Delivery to market?
2. Technical and physical feasibility
– Is it proven or speculative?
3. Capacity to meet demands on time
– Can it deliver significant energy on time?
4. Capacity to deliver on time
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
26
Sorting the options for holistic strategies
5. Is it acceptable to the community?
– Impacts on:
•
•
•
•
•
•
National security of supply
Human health
Environmental/ biodiversity
Community versus vested or narrow interests
Jobs
Political will
6. Permanency of emissions reductions
– Sequestration versus efficiency?
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
27
•
•
•
•
What is the climate-change issue about?
Observed global change
Risk, mitigation & adaptation
Human dimensions
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Securing a clean energy future
http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/securing-a-clean-energy-future-summary.pdf
Securing a clean energy future
A carbon price alone is not enough!
This is more about a future energy strategy
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Bio-sequestration
• The Australian Government: Securing a
Clean Energy Future, includes:
–
–
–
–
Tax/carbon trading
Energy efficiency
Renewables
Farm carbon
• The Liberal Party’s policy of “Direct action
on the environment and climate change”
claims:
– Bio-sequestration to be “the single largest
opportunity for CO2 emissions reduction in
Australia”
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Annual energy amounts
Solar radiation intercepted by the Earth
(5.75 x 1024 J)
Energy stored in all fossil fuels
(3.0 x 1023 J)
Content of global atmospheric motions (2.28 x 1021 J)
Australian photosynthetic capture
(7.20 x 1019 J)
Australian use of fossil fuels (5.80 x 1018 J)
Australian use by cars (7.20 x 1017 J)
Australian wheat crop (3.20 x 1017 J)
500 MW power station (1.58 x 1016 J)
Fossil formation
(3.80 x 1014 J)
Hurricane Katrina
(1.20 x 1014 J)
Hiroshima (6.30 x 1013 J)
12
(terra)
15
(peta)
18
(exa)
Energy exchange (J yr-1)
21
(Zetta)
24
(yotta)
But this demands an holistic consideration
• Including assessment of:
– The bio-physical constraints
– Rate at which change can take place
– Potential for other environmental impacts (e.g. net carbon loss from land
clearing, nitrogen emissions, biodiversity impacts, improved agricultural
soils)
– Co-benefits such as human health, jobs, community coherence
– Potential impact of a changing climate
– Balance of payments
– Security of energy supply
– Education, training, community acceptance
– Likely economic costs
• Innovation based on a narrow focus may deliver
unanticipated, if not undesirable, outcomes
• Today’s decisions & diversion of public/private dollars
may create currently unidentified problems for the future
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Pearman (2012)
Climate change belief types in Australia
What best describes your thoughts about CC?
5.6%
3.8%
I think it is happening
and that humans are
largely causing it
50.4%
40.2%
I think it is happening, but it
is just a natural fluctuation
in Earth temperatures
I don’t think it is
happening
I have no idea whether it is
happening or not
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
After: Iain Walker CSIRO
It is not just handful of sceptics
Scientists identify threat to sustainability
Inform risk analysis
Inform wider community
Messages filtered by:
1. Behavioral responses, e.g.
•
•
•
•
•
Diverse views of what is rational
Constructivism
Diverse emotional reactions and coping mechanisms
Beliefs: ideologies, just world, conservatism, myths, attitudes etc.
Vested interests/targeted scepticism
2. Institutional structures, e.g.
•
•
Sectoralised society
Non strategic evolution of societal structures
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Development
of public & private
policies
Awareness
Public support
35
Assumptions about rationality
Common assumptions
• People are essentially
rational
• Rationality is conscious
(we choose)
• Denial is a kind of
irrationality
• Irrationality and denial
can be overcome by more
information
Alternative assumptions
• What is rational in one
context may be irrational in
another
• Most rationalities are
“stored” in the
unconscious
• Every rationality is guided
by emotion
De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global
warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC
Fien et al. (2008): personal communication
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
36
Common reactions to learning about
severe environmental problems
Based on Australian
Psychological Society (2008)
Climate Change: What You
Can Do.
http://www.psychology.org.a
u/publications/tip_sheets/cli
mate/
Threat
April 02, 2012
Emotional
responses
Coping
mechanisms
Anxious
Minimising
Scared
Denying
Sad
Avoiding
Depressed
Scepticism
Numb
Desensitises
Helpless
Depend on others
Hopeless
Resigned
Frustrated
Cynical
Angry
Fed up
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
37
Conflicting bases for policy development
Rational sectorally- defined
description of the real world
Rationalism
Ideas of the way the world is,
based on observation,
measurement & rational deduction
Rational holistically- defined
description of the real world
Evidence-based policy
development
Policy development
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Conflicting bases for policy development
Rational sectorally- defined
description of the real world
Rationalism
Ideas of the way the world is,
based on observation,
measurement & rational deduction
Rational holistically- defined
description of the real world
Evidence-based policy
development
Constructivism
Ideas of the way the world is, constructed from & heavily
influenced by, subjective perceptions, rules & beliefs
The “non-reality world”
Policy development
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the
lie - deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the
myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion
April 02, 2012 the discomfort
Science Teachers
for Climate
without
of
thought”
Awareness
John F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963)
Social evolution is opportunistic and
devoid of strategic direction
Success
Environment
Technological opportunities
Social institutions
Biological evolution
Diversity
Success
Time/selection
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
No relation to where the
future might best be
Social evolution
Convergence
41
Characteristics of promising responses
for addressing sustainability include (1):
1. Strategic thinking:
–
Not stuck with the notion that the way it has been is
the way of the future; grasping the opportunities this
creates
2. Leadership:
–
There will be risks and opportunities; risk has to be
managed; being an early starter has advantages
3. Flexibility:
–
Uncertainty is a normal state to be managed; manage
the risks through ongoing learning, diversity &
nimbleness
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Characteristics of promising responses
for addressing sustainability include (2):
3. Markets:
–
Use them but accept that there are externalities;
balance markets approaches with non-market tools
4. Reflection:
–
Consider how our expectations, culture, history,
education, market economy, advertising, etc. impact
on our behaviour/institutions. Much of this is
subconscious & changeable; by bringing motivations
to the surface we can challenge their validity
5. Holism:
–
Rarely are solutions without the potential for cobenefits or dis-benefits. Be wary of sectoralism &
maximise value by seeking the former
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Leunig, The Age, July 9, 2011
April 02, 2012
Science Teachers for Climate
Awareness
Where to get your facts
• Australian Academy of Science: The science of climate change:
Questions and answers: www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange2020.html
• Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO: State of the Climate 2012:
•
http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx
• Royal Society of London: Climate change: a summary of the science:
http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-of-science/
• The Climate Institute: Climate Change Making Up Your Mind:
http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/images/makingupyourmind_top10_web.pdf
• Bureau of Meteorology: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/
• NASA: Global Climate Change:
http://climate.nasa.gov/
• US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch
• UK Meteorology Office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/
• New Scientist: Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462
• Deutsche Bank: Primer on answers to CC sceptics:
http://www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf