Download Dr Graeme Pearman`s Presentation from the Sept 2010

Climate change:
Are we up to the challenge?
Graeme I Pearman
Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Monash University
Board, The Climate Institute, START International
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?
September 20, 2010
Aust. Inst. Physics/Roy. Aust. Chemical Inst.
Climate Change: Spreading the GOOD News
The climate change issue
Aspirations
Energy supply/demand
Efficiency
Energy
demand
GDP
Choice of
technology
Climate
system
Climate impacts
Climate
change
Emissions
Human
health
The climate change issue
Aspirations
Energy supply/demand
Efficiency
Energy
demand
GDP
Culture, education,
advertising, promotions
Climate impacts
Climate
change
Emissions
Choice of
technology
Perceptions, conscious
or unconscious of:
• Wellbeing
• Success
Climate
system
• Vested interests
• Natural resources
• Ignorance
• Market failure
Human
health
• Risk assessment
• Beliefs
• Ignorance
• Sectoral interests
What is possible?
What we know and don’t know is based on:
• Principles of physics and fluid dynamics
– Greenhouse gases impact global temperature known for 120 years
• Observed change - distant past
– We can not take climate stability for granted
• Observed change - recent past
– Warming has occurred with associated changes to biology, water
availability, etc.
• Anticipated future climate change
– Unless emissions are reduced, warming will continue
• Anticipated impacts
– On all sectors of the society, but unevenly spread
• Uncertainty
– Remains and this will always be so
Key questions to be addressed
• What is climate change?
– The change to the long-term weather due to
greenhouse gases
• Has the Earth’ climate changed in the past?
– Yes, “enormously” through geologic times
• Has the climate changed recently?
– Yes, the atmosphere and oceans have warned globally
and in Australia
• Are humans the cause?
– Our use of energy is increasing greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, and this is very likely the reason for
recent warming
Key questions to be addressed
• What will happen into the future?
– Depends on how much more we emit these gases
• What are the consequences?
– It will have significant impact on society and the
environment
• How do we deal with the uncertainties of
the science?
– We weigh the probability of the scientific projections
being correct against the impact if they are
– But this challenges many who wish perfect anticipation
of the future
Global surface temperature change
relative to 1951-1980 mean
Hanson et al. (2010)
Trend in sea surface temperature,
1970-2009 (oC/10 years)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi
Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements
Contributed 0.6
mm/year sea
level rise
Greenland Ice Sheet
Contributed 0.4
mm/year sea
level rise
Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.
Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements
Change in mean sea level (mm)
40
20
0
-20
http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.
It is the high pressure ridge that
dominates much of our climate
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
+ 1.0
+ 0.4
0.0
0.0
- 1.0
- 1.0
1920
1940
1960
1980
Timbal et al. (2009): South eastern
Australian Climate Initiative
Temperature (oC)
Pressure (hPa)
Long-term changes of the intensity (pressure ) of
the Autumn-Winter subtropical ridge and global
average temperature
Planetary biology is changing
E.g. For south-eastern Australia marine fish
• “dramatic” warming of the ocean observed
• 45 species of fish exhibit major geographic
shifts thought to be climate related
Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr.
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
•
What is the climate change issue?
• What is it about us that causes this issue?
Emissions are on the high side of projections
Dec. 02, 2009
Le Quéré et al. (2009).
National anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases
Mt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2009
Australia
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Indonesia
Japan
Russia
United Kingdom
United States
549
732
7219
550
977
566
594
1343
1960
665
6964
World Resources Institute (2009)
Emissions Per Person
Cost curve to reduce emissions by 249 Mt CO2e by 2020
Power
Industry
Transport
Cost to society
A$/tCO2e
200
Commercial retrofit energy waste reduction
Solar PV (centralised)
Reduced deforestation and regrowth clearing
Commercial retrofit HVAC
Cropland carbon sequestration
Coal CCS new build
Wind offshore
Residential appliances and electronics
Reforestation of marginal land
Degraded farmland restoration
with environmental forest
Mining energy efficiency
Solar thermal
Residential lighting
100
Gas CCS new build
Cement clinker substitution by slag
Other industry energy efficiency
Buildings
Forestry
Agriculture
Coal CCS new build with EOR
Residential new builds
Commercial retrofit lighting
Capital improvements to existing
gas plant thermal efficiency
Commercial elevators and appliances
Commercial new builds
Commercial retrofit insulation
0
Anti-methanogenic treatments
Pasture and grassland management
Onshore wind
(marginal locations)
Aluminium energy efficiency
Mining VAM oxidation
Reforestation of marginal land with timber
plantation
Biomass co-firing
Coal to gas shift (increased
gas utilisation)
Active livestock feeding
Operational improvements to existing coal
plant thermal efficiency
-100
Geothermal
Improved forest management
Reduced T&D losses
Petroleum and gas maintenance
Biomass/biogas
Cogeneration
Coal to gas shift (gas new build)
Commercial retrofit water heating
Onshore wind (best locations)
Petrol car and light commercial efficiency improvement
-200
Chemicals processes and fuel shift
Reduced cropland soil emissions
Strategic reforestation of non-marginal
land with environmental forest
Diesel car and light commercial efficiency improvement
Operational improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency
0
50
SOURCE: ClimateWorks, Monash
100
150
200
250
Emissions reduction potential Mt per year
E.g. The energy sector
• Particularly impacted by emissions
reduction efforts
– Taxes, trading schemes, energy efficiency,
alternative energy sources
• Weighed against expense to agriculture,
water sector, natural environment,
tourism, national or regional security, etc.
• Need for more holistic options whereby
interests of any one sector/nation do not:
– Dominate policy development or the
availability of information
Future motor vehicle fuel security
Threat of
conflict
1. Fuel
security
Increased global
demand-Falling
availability
Carbon
Pollution
Reduction
Scheme
Limited
suppliespeak oil
3. Carbon
dioxide
Oil Imports
2. Balance of
payments
Rapidly diminishing
national production
Emissions
4. Pollutants
Rising
costs
5. Rising
demand
Affluence
Motor vehicle
fuels and
technologies
Population
Biofuels
Energy
efficiency
targets
Renewable
energy targets
Human health
Food, water
Employment
Social coherence
Notional futures of oil for car transport
August 07,
2010
22, 2010
Jamison (2009)
Carbon dioxide emissions under notional
futures for Australian car transport
CO2 emissions, (TgCO2 or Mt CO2)
60
CO2 emissions with business
as usual
40
Intervention but brown coal
electricity generation
Intervention but black coal
electricity
20
With intervention
(renewable electricity)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Pearman et al. (2009) http://www.mynrma.com.au/cps/rde/xbcr/mynrma/Jamison-Group-Fuelling-Future-PassengerVehicle-Use-in-Australia-February2010.pdf?cpssessionid=SID-34E2763C-9A249675
Energy options, the rush is on:
Energy efficiency strategies
• Reducing the reliance on energy for production,
transportation and storage
• Resources use and recovery
• Mitigation is an urgent/essential response
but needs to:
– Consider many options: uncertainties surround all optionseconomics, technologies, rate of implementation, societal and
environmental issues: Deliver resilience
• “….the problem is driven not by
fundamental human needs, but by
manipulated wants that find expression
in consumerism”
McIntosh (2008): Hell and High Water: Climate
Change, Hope and the Human Condition
Affluenza
• “The bloated, sluggish unfulfilled feeling
that results from efforts to keep up with the
Joneses”
• “An epidemic of stress, overwork, waste
and indebtedness caused by dogged
pursuits of the Australian dream”
• “An unsustainable addiction to economic
growth”
• “a condition in which we are confused about
what it takes to live a worthwhile life”
Hamilton and Denniss (2005): Affluence:
When too much is never enough
Messages about sustainability
The climate change issue results from:
• Our expectations
– Culture, history, education, market economy,
advertising
• Technological innovations
• Our choices
• Natural resource inheritance
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?
• What is it about us that causes this issue?
• What is it about us that makes it hard to
respond?
Magnitude/sensitivity
to change
Probability
of change
Mitigate
SocioEconomic
capacity
Potential
Exposure
Risk
Spontaneous
Adaptive Capacity
Willingness
to adapt
Vulnerability
Managed
adaptation
Resilience
Strategy
How well do we assess risk?
• There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747
– How many could be removed or rendered
inoperable before you would decide not to fly?
• IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance
of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with
a warming of 1.5-2.5oC
– There has been virtually no media or public
attention to this risk
• What are the consequences of inoperable
ecosystems?
7
6
5
Coping Range
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
450
2050
2100
Equil
2100
Equil
2050
2050
2100
Equil
550
750
2100
22 C
2050
Natural Ecosystems
Food Security
Agriculture and Forestry
Tourism
Heat related deaths
Major Infrastructure
Energy Security
Coastal Communities
4
Water availability
oC
3
2
1
Ref
Based on IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report
• Science pursues “truth” and thus is
typically lagging, searching for certainty
• In contrast, risk management is pragmatic
and proactive stance (leading approach)
aimed at balancing the probabilities of an
event occurring against its potential impact
• This disparity often leads the general
community to underestimate the practical
risks implicated by scientific conclusions
Pearman and Härtel (2009)
Common reactions to learning about
severe environmental problems
Emotional
responses
Threat
Coping
mechanisms
Anxious
Minimising
Scared
Denying
Sad
Avoiding
Depressed
Scepticism
Numb
Desensitises
Helpless
Depend on others
Hopeless
Resigned
Frustrated
Cynical
Angry
Fed up
Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do.
http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/
Assumption about rationality
Common assumptions
• People are essentially
rational
• Rationality is conscious
(we choose)
• Denial is a kind of
irrationality
• Irrationality and denial
can be overcome by more
information
Alternative assumptions
• What is rational in one
context may be irrational in
another
• Most rationalities are
“stored” in the
unconscious
• Every rationality is guided
by emotion
De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global
warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC
Fien et al. (2008): personal communication
• Standard economics: Assumes
“…all human decisions are
rational and informed..”
• Behavioural economics:
“ …people are susceptible to
irrelevant influences
…emotions, short-sightedness”
Ariely (2009): Predictably Irrational
• Now Identity Economics
“Peoples identity defines who
they are..(and this) influences
their decisions..”
Akerlof and Kranton (2010): Identity economics
Leadership
• At all levels: Government Federal, State and
Local, UK, bi-lateral, you
• Industry:
– “Look beyond coal, big miner says”
– “a clear price on energy”
– “Failure to do so will place us at a competitive
disadvantage.
• BHP Billiton Marius Kloppers CEO
• The Age, September 16, 2010
• You, at home, work, in the community
September 16, 2010
Probis Club of Melbourne
Human dimensions of What is Possible?
• Capturing of advice
– Role of science, media, education
• Nature of scepticism
– Experiential versus observational/theoretical views
– Scepticism as a tool or a crutch
• Formulation of attitudes
– Perception of success
– Belief/value structures, religion, cultural, ethos of
sustainability
Based on Härtel and
• Basic belief structures
–
–
–
–
–
Pearman (2010)
Conservatisms, consumerism and competition
Vested interests
Managing risk
Perception of risk and probabilities, response to threat
Role of companies, governments and the individual
Change Management
Engineer/physical
scientist
Focus
Processes, systems
Psychologists/social
scientist
People
Business
practices
Starting
point
BPR, TQM, ISO9000, Human resources, OD
quality
Business issues or
Personal change,
opportunities
employee resistance
(or potential for it)
Measure of Metrics of business Job satisfaction,
success
performance,
turnover, productivity
financial/statistical
loss
Perspective “Shoot the
“Help individuals make
on change stragglers, carry the sense of what change
wounded”
means to them”
Based on Hiatt (http://www.change-management.com/tutorial-definition-history.htm
Human dimensions of What is Acceptable?
• Dealing with uncertainty and probability
– Weighing probabilities, reality and the non-reality world
– Acceptance of change versus protection of status quo
• Risk assessment
– Capturing opportunities, reluctance to act/change
– Concerns/perceived responsibilities for culture and environment
• Sharing responsibility
–
–
–
–
Government and/or personal or corporate responsibilities
Behavioural and/or institutional change
Technologies and/or behavioural change
Mitigation and/or adaptation
• Perceptions of danger
– Value of present and/or future
– Perceived values of biodiversity
Based on Härtel and
Pearman (2010)
• Personal responsibility and empowerment
– Given “rights”, cultural connections, loss of identity and place
– Strategic-ness versus conservativeness
Human dimensions of What is Equitable?
• Recognising personal/regional differences in:
– Exposure, capacity to adapt mitigate & fund responses
– Understanding/awareness of CC & available options
– Matching differential exposure to aspirational needs of
the wider community
• Responding with
–
–
–
–
–
Formal, workforce and public education
Improved/new management and energy practices
Balance across all sectors and jurisdictions
Changes to personal lifestyles and expectations
Protections in transition for exposed sectors/persons
Based on Härtel and
Pearman (2010)
Social evolution is opportunistic and
devoid of strategic direction
Social evolution
Success
Environment
Technological opportunities
Social institutions
Diversity
Biological evolution
Success
Time
Time/selection
No relation to where the
future might best be
Convergence
Dominant view of
society
Alternative view of
society
Productivity
Nourishment, shelter
Profit
Fulfilment
Power
Sustainability, maintenance
More (no limit)
Enough (limit)
Growth
Balance
Competition
Cooperation
Centralisation
Decentralisation
Non-renewable
resources
Wasted, exhausted
Limited, prioritised users
Renewable
resources
The Human
Condition
Degraded
Require balance
management
Stressed
Joyful
Detached
Integrated
Degenerating
Evolving
Goals
Objective
Means
Hill (2006 p8): What Are Rational Goals For Development?
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?
• What is it about us that causes this issue?
• What is it about us that makes it hard to respond?
• Conclusions
Messages about sustainability
Solutions to the climate change issue
depend on:
• Acceptance that we will not know all that
we would like to know before action is
necessary
– We have to manage the risk
• We need to challenge the largely
unconscious drivers of our behaviour,
institutions and society
– Commercialism
– Advertising
– Non-strategic social evolution
Things to do
• Understand your “energy” and “water” footprints
–How much you use
–From what activities
–With what flexibility
–It is empowering- you have personal options then
• Set targets of reduction
–Monitor power, gas and petroleum bills
–Assess $ and carbon savings
–Reward success
•Your kids
•Your employees
–Be educated/equipped to make better purchases
• Tell others
–Especially local and regional Governments
–Your teacher, parents, boss
• Above all, examine what it is that is really important
Climate change: A most challenging issue
• Diabolical because it is:
–
–
–
–
–
Uncertain in its format and extent
Insidious rather than (as yet) confrontational
Long-term rather than immediate
International as well as national
Dangerous in the absence of effective mitigation
• It results from the very way we are as individuals
and the way our societies have evolved
– Our aspirations and energy demands
– Concepts of what represents ‘success’ and ‘happiness’
– Institutional frameworks that influence conformity and
community-wide values
• Solutions depend on changes that potentially
threaten those aspirations, belief systems and
attitudes