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Break out group 1- Greenhouse gas emission targets for 2030 (methodological aspects) Issues discussed: • Methodologies most suited for the EU for assessing dangerous anthropogenic climate change • Possible global long-term climate change targets for the EU (other targets than the 6EAP target of +2C global temperature increase?) • Global greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide concentration levels consistent with global climate change target(s) • Possible convergence of per capita emissions and by which year • Possible emission targets for industrialized countries and for EU25 for 2030 • Fulfilling the target through domestic action and through international emission trading 1 Break out group 1- Recommendations (1) • Need to compare countries perspectives (with measures 2010) with the top-down EEA scenarios for 2010 • The 6-EAP target of a maximum 2 degrees global temperature increase should not be exceeded in the Sustainable Emission Pathway scenario • The rate of temperature increase per decade, proposed by WBGU, of 0.2 °C/decade could be added as an additional target • No other climate change targets have been proposed • Base the EEA scenario methodology on peer-reviewed literature • The EEA methodology for deriving global efforts should be transparent on assumptions and compared with similar studies in order to present the broad range of options under discussion 2 Break out group 1- Recommendations (2) • EEA should focus the analyses on the commitment of Europe, and the action to be taken by Europe • The temperature targets mentioned are consistent with a concentration target of a maximum of 450 ppm CO2 (550 ppm CO2eq), assuming a low to average climate sensitivity • Assumptions on trading should reflect the most costeffective solutions for reaching the EU commitments inside and outside Europe in line with the current Kyoto mechanisms • Land-use change and forestry emissions and removals should be treated according to the Kyoto definitions • Long term projections should not be limited to a single scenario 3