Download The low carbon/Green Strategy for China`s Foreign Investment

The low carbon/Green Strategy for China’s Foreign Investment
1. Background
Even though China’s GDP growth rate was slowing down in 2013 and 2014, but
the newly increased GDP was still around 1trillion US$ per year, and nearly 60%
of that will be used for investment. China’s economy is under transition, the
traditional industries are losing their driving force to continue growth, and
investment for those industries are actually decreasing. The investment must go
somewhere. China’s new industry such as environment industry, renewable
energy, nuclear power etc. are growing faster. But their demand on investment is
not big enough. Some important sectors such as grid, high speed train, already
got high investment and do not need to increase their investment. Therefore,
increase much more for foreign investment is getting to be a fundamental
strategy here in China. In 2014, the foreign investment from China not including
banking and finance related investment, reached US$102.9billion, 14.1% increase
compared with that in 2013. Around 30% of the investment is infrastructure
development related. Such huge investment now, and much bigger in future, will
be a key driving force for carbon emission in other countries if there is not a good
guidance on low carbon development for the investment. But there is no any
principal right now to guide the investment from China, to make sure if China’s
investment goes outside, it should be low carbon and green. This is crucial for the
future low carbon in other developing countries, but also very important to
improve the situation for China’s investment going out.
2. Objectives
This study will analyze the future trend of China’s foreign investment, present the
pattern for the investment allocation, and analyze the effect for the energy and
carbon emission going together with the investment, and finally, look in detail the
strategy for the low carbon/green strategy for the investment, provide a guidance
for low carbon/green based strategy for the investment.
Possible audience: NDRC, MOFCOMM, Ministry of Finance, People’s Bank of
China, main commercial banks in China, other regional associations such
China-Africa Development Association etc.
3. Research Activities
Research activities mainly include:
1) Analyze the foreign investment pattern and trend, where it goes, how to use that,
what is problem they faced.
- Review on the investment in other countries in total size, and direction.
- Analyze the usage of the investment, and the output.
- Review on other countries/main multilateral Banks overseas investment, such
as US, EU, Japan, World Bank and ADB.
2) Analyze the future scenario for the investment
- Analyze the driving force for foreign investment
- Analyze the demand of investment, and possible pattern for the investment
by regions
- Present the future picture of foreign investment.
3) Analyze the impact on energy use and GHG emission related with the investment.
- Analyze the future usage of investment.
- Analyze the possible output by using the investment.
- Analyze the impact on energy and low carbon future.
4) Scenario analysis for energy and GHG emission related with the investment.
- Design the scenario for the investment in selected region, such as Africa,
including BaU and Low Carbon Investment Scenario.
- Using IPAC model to simulate the effects for energy use and CO2 emission
5) Policy/strategy analysis for the low carbon/green principal for the investment
6) Guidance for the low carbon/green principal for the investment.
7) Case study.