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Transcript
Break out group 1- Greenhouse gas emission
targets for 2030 (methodological aspects)
Issues discussed:
• Methodologies most suited for the EU for assessing dangerous
anthropogenic climate change
• Possible global long-term climate change targets for the EU
(other targets than the 6EAP target of +2C global temperature
increase?)
• Global greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide concentration levels
consistent with global climate change target(s)
• Possible convergence of per capita emissions and by which year
• Possible emission targets for industrialized countries and for
EU25 for 2030
• Fulfilling the target through domestic action and through
international emission trading
1
Break out group 1- Recommendations (1)
• Need to compare countries perspectives (with measures
2010) with the top-down EEA scenarios for 2010
• The 6-EAP target of a maximum 2 degrees global
temperature increase should not be exceeded in the
Sustainable Emission Pathway scenario
• The rate of temperature increase per decade, proposed
by WBGU, of 0.2 °C/decade could be added as an
additional target
• No other climate change targets have been proposed
• Base the EEA scenario methodology on peer-reviewed
literature
• The EEA methodology for deriving global efforts should
be transparent on assumptions and compared with
similar studies in order to present the broad range of
options under discussion
2
Break out group 1- Recommendations (2)
• EEA should focus the analyses on the commitment of
Europe, and the action to be taken by Europe
• The temperature targets mentioned are consistent with a
concentration target of a maximum of 450 ppm CO2
(550 ppm CO2eq), assuming a low to average climate
sensitivity
• Assumptions on trading should reflect the most costeffective solutions for reaching the EU commitments
inside and outside Europe in line with the current Kyoto
mechanisms
• Land-use change and forestry emissions and removals
should be treated according to the Kyoto definitions
• Long term projections should not be limited to a single
scenario
3