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Transcript
“Limiting global climate
change to 2°C” - comments on
EU climate policy by Anders
Wijkman at the Ny-Ålesund
Symposium, august 2007
• Climate change mitigation has been a highprofile issue within the EU
• But more than 15 years after the Climate
Convention was agreed upon, emissions are
increasing rapidly in most Member States
• If it were not for the collapse of the economy
in Eastern Germany and the switch from coal
to gas in the UK, the EU would most probably
not be able to meet its Kyoto target
• But the decision by EU leaders in march 2007
was daring and does require ambitious policy
measures as a follow-up
Why 2 degrees Celsius?
“Millions at risk”
The chances to stay within a temperature
increase of 2 degrees C. is only about 50%
if GHG concentration can be limited to
450 ppm CO2eq!
Early action is very important. It is very
difficult to return to a lower GHG concentration
level once it has been surpassed
Action suggested by
developed countries
• Common but differentiated
responsibilities: take the lead
and make most of the effort
• Reduction efforts:
– 30% by 2020
– 60-80% by 2050
• Emissions trading, linking
domestic schemes and global
carbon market
• Binding and effective rules for
monitoring and enforcing
commitments
Developed countries GHG emissions
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1990
2005
2020
Baseline
2030
2040
Reduction Scenario
2050
Action in developing
countries
• Reduce growth of
emissions asap
• Absolute reductions after
2020
• Toolbox:
–Sustainable development
policies
–New approach to CDM
–Improved access to finance
–Sectoral approaches
–Some kind of Quantified
emission limits
–No commitments for least
developed countries
Developing countries GHG emissions
320%
280%
240%
200%
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
1990
2005
2020
Baseline
2030
2040
Reduction Scenario
2050
Further elements
• International research and technology cooperation
– Large-scale technology demonstration
– Quantification of regional and local impacts and adaptation
and mitigation strategies
• Action to halt deforestation within 2-3 decades and
reverse afterwards
– Large-scale pilot schemes
• Adaptation measures
– Integrate in public and private investment decisions
– Mainstream into development and poverty strategies
• International agreement on energy efficiency
standards
•
EU climate action up to
2020:
EU independent commitment: Reduce EU-27 GHG emissions
by at least 20% in 2020 compared to 1990
•
Energy/Climate Policies:
– Energy efficiency: 20% improvement by 2020
– Renewable energy: 20% mandatory objective by 2020
– Biofuels target of 10% by 2020 - need for certification!!!
– Sustainable power generation from fossil fuels: 12 large
scale CCS demonstration plants by 2015;zero emissions
from 2020!
– Strategic energy technology plan
– Internal market-options unbundling & regulatory powers:
• Important for functioning EU ETS
• Overcome hurdles for renewables
– ETS review
– Fuel Quality directive
– Fuel efficiency for vehicles - max 120 g CO2/KM in 2012
– Nuclear: member states’ choice
At least
-20 %
CO2
Critical issues:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
20 % or 30% GHG reductions for 2020
How to accomplish energy efficiency potential
ETS review - new sectors, auctioning etc
How to ensure technology push?
Transportation policy - where are the new
ideas and concepts?
Biofuels target - how to avoid a trap?
Centralised or decentalised energy?
How to link cc mitigation to ecosystem crisis?
Rethink economic policy framework;
complement GDP, give value to ecosystems,
internalise external costs, use low discounting
rate etc.
Critical issues c - d:
• Rethink ODA - assist low-income countries
not to repeat our mistakes
• Adaptation and Risk Reduction must be given
higher profile; WB estimates extra costs of
10-40 Billion US p a; Oxfam estimate = 50
Billion US p a - new financial resources
needed
• Technology cooperation a must! - emissions
in emerging economies increase rapidly Crash Programme on IPRs, Capacity
building, co-financing (CDM not enough!)
Critical issues - c-d
• How to reconcile Climate Concerns w/
WTO ?
• How to deal with and communicate the
risks for tipping points?
• How to involve the individual citizen
more fully?
Mitigation + Adaptation + Suffering
=
Constant
( as suggested by John Schellnhuber)
Conclusions
• Urgent progress on climate policy is an imperative for
all countries – inaction will be unmanageable
• Climate change is security issue
• Non-linearity of climate system real challenge
• The 2 degree C. target can still be achieved
• Build on the Kyoto Protocol – improve as necessary –
including deeper reductions by all developed countries
– the EU is ready to take the lead
• Mitigation and Adaptation must go hand in hand
• Offer a package deal to developing countries to
involve them pro-actively – Annex I countries can‘t go
it alone
• We need one negotiating forum to consider all
relevant elements within a common timeframe and as
part of a fair and effective post-2012 agreement