Download Costing the Climate Change Bill: from System Models and Andy Kerr

Costing the Climate Change
Bill: from System Models and
Cost Curves to the Real World
Andy Kerr
What is required?
90
80
70
60
40
30
20
Traded sector - adjusted for ETS
Other non-traded
Other (before ETS)
Heat
Transport
Domestic and international aviation
Rural land use (excluding w oodland)
Woodland
Waste
Climate Change Bill targets
TOTAL - adjusted for ETS
2050
2020 - 42%
2020 - 34%
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
-20
1992
-10
1991
10
1990
MtCO2e
50
How do we get there?
• Scotland
– Delivery Plan published 17th June 2009
– CC Bill Third Reading on 24th June 2009
– Energy Action Plans in summer 2009
– Statutory costed policies/programmes by 2010
• UK
– Statutory policies and programmes in summer 2009
• International
– EU regulations / Copenhagen outcomes in Dec 2009
What will it cost?
1,300
£/tCO2e
650
2020
FAW
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Power
“In contrast, the costs of action – reducing
greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the
worst impacts of climate change – can be
limited to around 1% of global GDP each
year.” Stern 2006
600
550
450
400
350
300
150
100
50
27
0
-50 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
-100
-150
-200
Lighting - Domestic
Building envelopes
4%
Source: UK MAC model
MtCO2e
Wind onshore @ 0-10%
Nuclear growth
Coal-to-gas shift; merit order
Wind offshore @ 0-10%
4%
5%
16%
4%
Refinery efficiency - level 2
Motor systems
Powertrain & non engine techs - cars gasoline
3%
4%
5%
Motor systems - non-VSD
3%
Aims of Today
We know what is required…but
Morning session: How do we get there?
•
Aim to explore the implications of the UK Energy Research Centre’s
(UKERC) Energy 2050 project… and understand choices and tradeoffs available to us for our energy systems
Afternoon session: How much will it cost?
•
Aim to go beyond Stern…to develop the process of unpicking the
costs of radical emission reductions in Scotland/UK
•
Aim to understand strengths/weaknesses of current approaches to
estimating costs and how they are used in policy and in practice
•
Aim to take forward our understanding for future policy analysis