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CLIMATE CHANGE
AND
THE DRIVE FOR
SUSTAINABILITY
John Orr
Environment Manager
Anglian Region
Is the climate changing?
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of
increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice, and rising global average sea level”
IPCC 4th Assessment Report
“…we have very little time left – indeed
less than 100 months – in which to alter
our behaviour drastically”. HRH The
Prince of Wales 2009
A PERFECT STORM
By 2030 the demand for
resources will create a
crisis with dire
consequences,
Prof John
Beddington said.
Temperature effects
GREENHOUSE EFFECT – NEWS?
The science behind the greenhouse effect has
been known since the late 1800s
It is what makes life on earth possible…
…and it’s the reason that the surface of Venus
is hotter than the surface of Mercury
BUT the bad news is that human activities
have exceeded the capacity of natural systems
to maintain a balance and GHG concentrations
in the atmosphere are rising
The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere
CO2 concentration
Correlations and coincidence
Global Scenarios
Tipping points
For a 30% chance of avoiding dangerous climate
change
Global figure of 450 ppmv CO2
This implies a UK carbon budget of 4.8 Gt C for 2000
– 2050
But 1.2 Gt C have already been emitted from 2000 –
2006
Carbon trajectories
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
~ 9% p.a.
reduction
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Education – the call to arms
Schools have a vital role to play in changing
behaviours – not just of tomorrow’s citizens but by
exporting messages to families and communities now
Ultimately we need a new value set and a new
economic paradigm to live by
Our best chance of achieving this is through our
young people
By building sustainable schools we can help build a
sustainable world
UKCP09 Key Findings - 2050’s
Summer temperatures
rise by up to around 1.4 degrees in 2020 and
2.5 degrees in 2050
Rainfall
Summer rainfall will decrease by 6% in 2020, 16% in 2050;
Winter rainfall will increase by 6% in 2020, 14% in 2050;
But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to
41%.
Explaining the trends
Strong global warming observed since 1980
Adaptation – the scale of the challenge in the
UK