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Transcript
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY John Orr Environment Manager Anglian Region Is the climate changing? “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level” IPCC 4th Assessment Report “…we have very little time left – indeed less than 100 months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009 A PERFECT STORM By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said. Temperature effects GREENHOUSE EFFECT – NEWS? The science behind the greenhouse effect has been known since the late 1800s It is what makes life on earth possible… …and it’s the reason that the surface of Venus is hotter than the surface of Mercury BUT the bad news is that human activities have exceeded the capacity of natural systems to maintain a balance and GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are rising The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere CO2 concentration Correlations and coincidence Global Scenarios Tipping points For a 30% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change Global figure of 450 ppmv CO2 This implies a UK carbon budget of 4.8 Gt C for 2000 – 2050 But 1.2 Gt C have already been emitted from 2000 – 2006 Carbon trajectories 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 ~ 9% p.a. reduction 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Education – the call to arms Schools have a vital role to play in changing behaviours – not just of tomorrow’s citizens but by exporting messages to families and communities now Ultimately we need a new value set and a new economic paradigm to live by Our best chance of achieving this is through our young people By building sustainable schools we can help build a sustainable world UKCP09 Key Findings - 2050’s Summer temperatures rise by up to around 1.4 degrees in 2020 and 2.5 degrees in 2050 Rainfall Summer rainfall will decrease by 6% in 2020, 16% in 2050; Winter rainfall will increase by 6% in 2020, 14% in 2050; But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to 41%. Explaining the trends Strong global warming observed since 1980 Adaptation – the scale of the challenge in the UK
