Download DECC Presentation - University of Reading

The appliance of science – a policy
perspective
NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015
David Warrilow
Head of Science
DECC
Questions, science and policy
“The
important thing is not to stop questioning.
Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”
Albert Einstein
“There does not exist a category of science to which
one can give the name applied science. There are
science and the applications of science, bound
together as the fruit of the tree which bears it.”
Louis Pasteur
Policy challenge of rapid change
Total Population of the world by projection variant
UN 2011
Source:
Future Earth
Challenge of a changing climate
Is climate change
happening?
Are humans
responsible?
How will it change
in the future?
How will that
affect us?
IPCC WG1 5th Assessment Report 2013
Broad policy questions
What are the risks associated with climate and other environmental
changes?
What are the causes?
How will these risks change in the future?
What are the strategic options to reduce these risks?
Can we deal with the problem at source (mitigation)?
Can we reduce the effects (adaptation)?
Who needs to act?
What are the costs?
What specific options need to be developed?
Are there side effects?
Who are the winners and losers?
How do we convince others to accept the need for change?
Does climate change cause
extremes?
Is the extreme event we
experience due to climate
change?
Will extremes be worse in
the future?
How can we adapt to
reduce risks
Challenges of Adaptation
Prediction uncertainty UKCP09
UK Adaptation Programme (2013)
“A society which makes
timely, far-sighted and
well-informed decisions
to address the risks and
opportunities posed
by a changing climate”
Building the UK’s resilience to climate change is an
economic, social and environmental challenge that
cuts across every sector of society.
The Challenge of Mitigation.
Climate Change and Energy
11
UK Commitments to reduce
GHG emissions (CCC)
Long term aim: 80% reduction by 2050
Budget
Carbon budget
level
% reduction
below base year
1st Carbon
budget (2008-12)
3,018 MtCO2e
23%
2nd Carbon
budget (2013-17)
2,782 MtCO2e
29%
3rd Carbon
budget (2018-22)
2,544 MtCO2e
35% by 2020
4th Carbon
budget (2023-27)
1,950 MtCO2e
50% by 2025
Progress on budget
The carbon plan 2011
Sector options:
• Power generation,
• Industry
• Transport,
• Energy efficiency
• Waste
• Agriculture
Emissions Trading
2050 Calculator – analysing options
2050 Analysis
Product
My2050
Web Tool
Excel
Spreadsheet
Audience
Educational tool
and initial
engagement for
members of the
public
Technical expert
stakeholders
and well-informed
public
Technical expert
stakeholders
and policy-makers
Complexity
15
Innovation is essential
Need for a global agreement
“ Climate change is a fact. And when our
children’s children look us in the eye and
ask if we did all we could to leave them a
safer, more stable world, with new sources
of energy, I want us to be able to say yes,
we did.”
Barack Obama, US President, January
2014
“ Don’t get left behind. Don’t be on the
losing side of history… Let us take
advantage of the opportunities presented
by climate action and lay the foundations
for a more prosperous and secure future
for all.”
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, May
2014
Paris 2015 Securing our prosperity through a global climate change agreement
An alternative view…
Conclusions
Time of unprecedented change
Need to manage risks
Use opportunities to transform the way we do things
Complex interaction of policies and politics
Win the communications battle
Essential to innovate
International agreement is key
Time is short.