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“Limiting global climate change to 2°C” - comments on EU climate policy by Anders Wijkman at the Ny-Ålesund Symposium, august 2007 • Climate change mitigation has been a highprofile issue within the EU • But more than 15 years after the Climate Convention was agreed upon, emissions are increasing rapidly in most Member States • If it were not for the collapse of the economy in Eastern Germany and the switch from coal to gas in the UK, the EU would most probably not be able to meet its Kyoto target • But the decision by EU leaders in march 2007 was daring and does require ambitious policy measures as a follow-up Why 2 degrees Celsius? “Millions at risk” The chances to stay within a temperature increase of 2 degrees C. is only about 50% if GHG concentration can be limited to 450 ppm CO2eq! Early action is very important. It is very difficult to return to a lower GHG concentration level once it has been surpassed Action suggested by developed countries • Common but differentiated responsibilities: take the lead and make most of the effort • Reduction efforts: – 30% by 2020 – 60-80% by 2050 • Emissions trading, linking domestic schemes and global carbon market • Binding and effective rules for monitoring and enforcing commitments Developed countries GHG emissions 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1990 2005 2020 Baseline 2030 2040 Reduction Scenario 2050 Action in developing countries • Reduce growth of emissions asap • Absolute reductions after 2020 • Toolbox: –Sustainable development policies –New approach to CDM –Improved access to finance –Sectoral approaches –Some kind of Quantified emission limits –No commitments for least developed countries Developing countries GHG emissions 320% 280% 240% 200% 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% 1990 2005 2020 Baseline 2030 2040 Reduction Scenario 2050 Further elements • International research and technology cooperation – Large-scale technology demonstration – Quantification of regional and local impacts and adaptation and mitigation strategies • Action to halt deforestation within 2-3 decades and reverse afterwards – Large-scale pilot schemes • Adaptation measures – Integrate in public and private investment decisions – Mainstream into development and poverty strategies • International agreement on energy efficiency standards • EU climate action up to 2020: EU independent commitment: Reduce EU-27 GHG emissions by at least 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 • Energy/Climate Policies: – Energy efficiency: 20% improvement by 2020 – Renewable energy: 20% mandatory objective by 2020 – Biofuels target of 10% by 2020 - need for certification!!! – Sustainable power generation from fossil fuels: 12 large scale CCS demonstration plants by 2015;zero emissions from 2020! – Strategic energy technology plan – Internal market-options unbundling & regulatory powers: • Important for functioning EU ETS • Overcome hurdles for renewables – ETS review – Fuel Quality directive – Fuel efficiency for vehicles - max 120 g CO2/KM in 2012 – Nuclear: member states’ choice At least -20 % CO2 Critical issues: • • • • • • • • • 20 % or 30% GHG reductions for 2020 How to accomplish energy efficiency potential ETS review - new sectors, auctioning etc How to ensure technology push? Transportation policy - where are the new ideas and concepts? Biofuels target - how to avoid a trap? Centralised or decentalised energy? How to link cc mitigation to ecosystem crisis? Rethink economic policy framework; complement GDP, give value to ecosystems, internalise external costs, use low discounting rate etc. Critical issues c - d: • Rethink ODA - assist low-income countries not to repeat our mistakes • Adaptation and Risk Reduction must be given higher profile; WB estimates extra costs of 10-40 Billion US p a; Oxfam estimate = 50 Billion US p a - new financial resources needed • Technology cooperation a must! - emissions in emerging economies increase rapidly Crash Programme on IPRs, Capacity building, co-financing (CDM not enough!) Critical issues - c-d • How to reconcile Climate Concerns w/ WTO ? • How to deal with and communicate the risks for tipping points? • How to involve the individual citizen more fully? Mitigation + Adaptation + Suffering = Constant ( as suggested by John Schellnhuber) Conclusions • Urgent progress on climate policy is an imperative for all countries – inaction will be unmanageable • Climate change is security issue • Non-linearity of climate system real challenge • The 2 degree C. target can still be achieved • Build on the Kyoto Protocol – improve as necessary – including deeper reductions by all developed countries – the EU is ready to take the lead • Mitigation and Adaptation must go hand in hand • Offer a package deal to developing countries to involve them pro-actively – Annex I countries can‘t go it alone • We need one negotiating forum to consider all relevant elements within a common timeframe and as part of a fair and effective post-2012 agreement