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Hon Barry Brill OBE JP LLM MComLaw OPM
COP21 will out-flunk
cop15
•
Paris COP21 Goal:
“A universal, legally binding and differentiated
agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so
as to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C above
current levels.
•
Some Descriptions of Copenhagen COP15:
“Political Disaster” (Heerdegard)
“Chinese Hypocrisy” (Sarkozy)
“Abject Failure”
(Friends of the Earth)
“A Crime Scene”
(Greenpeace)
TWO
PREDICTIO
NS
1. The outcome of COP21
will be an embarrassing
FAILURE
BUT…
2. The objective of COP21
will be a resounding
SUCCESS
Track record
20 COPs: Many Failures - No Successes
1. Rio 1992: UNFCC Goal - OECD emissions to reduce to 1990 levels by 2000
[they increased by 20%]
2. Kyoto 1997: Legally enforceable reduction of OECD emissions
- Highly euro-centric - NZ only other complier
- All except Europe refused a second commitment
- During 1990-2012, global emissions rose by 60%
3. Bali 2007: Road Map - voluntary emission targets to be adopted by developing
countries. [BASIC countries have simply refused].
4. Copenhagen 2009: legally binding treaty to reduce emissions by 25% by 2020
[fiasco]
5. Cancun 2010: a $100 billion pa “Green Climate Fund” agreed [never funded]
THE negotiating
climate
Non-climate arguments disappeared since 2009:
- Failure of “Peak Oil”
- Failure of “Green Growth”
- Failure of Carbon Markets
- Lapse in Popularity/Policy
- Global Financial Crisis
AND
“The Hiatus”:
- IPCC Influence
- Cost-Benefit Models
- Potential Collapse of Alarm
countries...that matter
Rank
Country
Emissions (per
million tonnes)
Percentage
Percentage Change 19922009
1
China
8,320
26.2
240
2
United States
5,610
17.7
10
3
EU
4,370
13.8
1
4
India
1,696
5.3
157
5
Russia
1,634
5.1
-19
6
Japan
1,164
3.7
8
71.8
7
South Korea
579
1.8
97
8
Iran
560
1.8
139
9
Canada
549
1.7
13
10
Saudi Arabia
478
1.5
103
11
South Africa
465
1.5
45
12
Brazil
454
1.4
91
13
Mexico
445
1.4
42
14
Australia
405
1.3
47
15
Indonesia
389
1.2
116
TOTAL
27,118
85.3
All other countries
4,662
14.7
Developed Country
Percentage
37.2
Leadership
Leaders:
- B.A.S.I.C.: Growth/Poverty Eradication (“Rio Principles)
- USA: Rhetoric, No Pain
- EU: Divided
- Fuel Exporters: Russia, Iran, Saudi, Indonesia
- Canada/Australia; Japan
Remainder:
- Group of 77: Money
- Small Island States: Justice (Money)
Projected Change...
in global mean surface air temperatures table spm 2 (AR5,
WG1):
2081-2100
RCP
2046-2065
2.6
0.4 to 1.6
0.3 to 1.7
4.5
0.9 to 2.0
1.1 to 2.6
6.0
0.8 to 1.8
1.4 to 3.1
(CMIP5 models)
Notes:
1. Only one RCP can be considered
2. Which end of range is probable?
3. With ECS < 2.0C, no prospect of warming >2.0C
PREDICTING THE
Pathway
Why Ignore RCP8.5?
1. Pathways include outliers
2. Requires six-fold increase in trajectory
3. Methane from permafrost - “extremely unlikely”
4. Ridley: “The one thing we can say about RCP8.5 is that it is very
implausible.”
Why Choose RCP2.6 as BAU?
1. Above current trajectory
2. RF forecasts are habitually over-stated
3. Shale gas: US leading decline?
4. Biosphere growth?
5. Efficiency. Oil price quadrupled 2004-2008.
- “Carbon Price” (MT of CO2e) increased from $7.36 (1999) to $43.30 today
- Barrel = 433kg. Equivalent to carbon tax of $36 - higher than anywhere
- Coal went $30 to 150 to 85. Tax higher than Stern.
6. Assumption RF is 100% anthropogenic
Net global BENEFIt
of
climate change
1.) Net economic impact of <2.2°C warming is positive, 2.) Marginal benefit declines after
1°C of additional warming. 3.) Tol’s graph averages all of the peer-reviewed studies published
to date
The (negative)
social cost of
carbon...
“The IPPC produced two reports last
year. One said that the cost of
climate change is likely to be less
than 2% of GDP by the end of this
century. The other said that the cost
of decarbonizing the world economy
with renewable energy is likely to be
4% of GDP. Why do something that
you know will do more harm than
good?”
- Matt Ridley, Financial Post, June 19 2014