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Transcript
TECHNOLOGY, PATH DEPENDENCY AND
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
STEVE RAYNER
James Martin Professor of Science and Civilization
University of Oxford
Honorary Professor of Climate Change and Society
University of Copenhagen
Member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution
QWERTYUIOP
IPCC EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
THE REAL SCALE OF THE EMISSIONS
STABILIZATION CHALLENGE
TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE - RAISING
CARBON COSTS VERSUS LOWERING
TECHNOLOGY COSTS
cost
carbon
non-C
time
WORLD ENERGY MIX (2004)
NEXT STEPS IN THE POLICY PROCESS
• Bali marked a shift in policy epicentre from Atlantic to
Pacific
• Copenhagen will continue with trading but accept reality
that “heavy lifting” will require technological change
• USA will lead world in emissions reductions within 5-10
years
• Problem of getting “dirty” technologies out of the bottom
• Significant new investments in adaptation to climate (not
just change)
• Increasing acceptance of the need for “Plan B” –
Geoengineering
GEOENGINEERING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
ATMOSPHERIC
CARBON
REMOVAL
INCREASE
RADIATIVE
CAPACITY
ECOSYSTEMS
TINKERING
OCEAN IRON
FERTILIZATION
STRATOSPHERIC
AEROSOLS
MECHANICAL
ENGINEERING
AIR CAPTURE
(ARTIFICIAL
TREES)
SPACE
REFLECTORS