Download Climate Change Adaptation in the North East…

Climate Change Projections…
Select Committee (Environment, Housing
and Transport and Safer and Stronger
Communities)
Commission on Flooding
Adrian Hilton
Regional Climate Change Coordinator
The ‘Bottom Line’ - what we need to deliver
Enhanced resilience of our
infrastructure, communities and
business and natural environment to
climate change
Reductions in Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) emissions of 80% - by 2050
Opportunities for competitive
advantage and economic
diversification realised
What can we expect in the
North East?
Changing weather patterns
Warmer, wetter winters
Hotter, drier summers
Reduction in soil moisture in summer
Increase in ‘high intensity’ rainfall events
Polarisation of rainfall
Higher incidence and severity of storm events
Changes is biodiversity
Changing patterns of public usage – natural environment
Resolution…
Issues…
Does not consider:
• Altitude
• Topography
• Proximity to coast etc
Gives:
• Broad, generic data –
• Warmer, wetter winters
• Hotter, drier summers
Climate Change Adaptation in the North East…
3 Data Resolutions…….
3 Spatial Levels…
Regional
Sub-regional
District
Climate Change (2050s)…
Environment
Agency
Regional
Weather
Impact
Generator
Earwig modelling…
Does consider:
• Altitude
• Topography
• Proximity to coast etc
Gives: (caveat)
• High resolution
• Considerably more detailed
• Allows understanding of
impacts at a level that
enables ACTION
Why choose the 2050s?
Climate change is already happening
Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it
CC over next 30-50 yrs due to historic emissions
Within long-term planning horizons
UK CLIMATE
PROJECTIONS
2009
Summer average temperature
2020
+1.5ºC
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
2040
+2.2ºC
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
2080
+3.7ºC
Risk to Food Security
NE England
central estimate
Medium emissions
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than
5.8ºC
North East Study
2 – 2.3°C
13
For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases
2020
-5%
2040
-10%
2080
-17%
Reduced stream
flow and water
quality
Increased drought
Subsidence
Decreased crop
yields
Serious water stress
NE England
central estimate
Medium emissions
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher
than +1%
North East Study
mostly ~5% up to 10%
14
For rainfall we see significant winter increases
2020
+4%
2040
+9%
2080
+14%
NE England
central estimate
Medium Emissions
Increased winter
flooding
Increased subsidence
Risks to urban
drainage
Severe Transport
disruption
Risks of national
Infrastructure
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be
higher than +32%
North East Study
8 to 20%
15
Relative sea level rise
(medium emissions, 50th percentile)
2040
Alnmouth:
Saltburn:
14cm
16cm
2080
Alnmouth:
Saltburn:
North East Study
30cm
34cm
30cm
16
North East Outputs…
Extreme temperatures
•
Cold
1.1 to 1.7 ºC
(remains sub-zero)
•
Hot
2.6 to 3.1 ºC
A Few Key Messages……………..
Adrian Hilton
Regional Climate Change Coordinator
Observation and measurement confirms that the
worst case IPCC scenarios, or worse, are being
realised.
TAR
Reasons for
Concern 2001
Future
Past
TAR
Updated
reasons for
Concern
Smith et al 2009
EU 2C Guardrail
It would appear likely that there is less than a 50%
chance that we can restrict warming to less than 2
degrees.
More detailed understanding of natural processes
indicate that current projections of sea level rise are
inadequate and may be significantly underestimated
Sea level rise may well exceed one meter by 2100 if
emissions remain unabated
Long term sea level rise over several centuries is
likely to be several meters, consistent with
paleoclimate data
“There is no excuse for inaction”
We’re getting the data – we need to use it (wisely!)
"I was pleased to see the strength of the Climate Change Partnership in
the North East, particularly the quality of the North East Adaptation Study.
"The study tells us what we need to do to adapt in the face of dangerous
climate change. This work and the commitment from many groups and
sectors, including local government in the North, is very encouraging."
Rt Hon. Hilary Benn, Secretary of State for the Environment
“We are already seeing in the North East the thinking, action and sense
of purpose to deliver real progress on fighting climate change”.
Joan Ruddock, Department of Energy and Climate Change Minister, 2009