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Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast Ned Raynolds and Erika Spanger-Siegfried Union of Concerned Scientists November 30, 2006 About the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) A collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and > 40 independent experts to: • Develop and communicate a new assessment of climate change and associated impacts on key climate-sensitive sectors in the Northeast U.S. • Combine state-of-the-art analyses with effective outreach to provide decision-makers with the best available science upon which to base informed choices about climate change mitigation and adaptation. • Oct 4, 2006: Release of NECIA climate change report • Early 2007: Release of NECIA assessment of impacts, options for mitigation and adaptation. Released August 2006 www.climatechoices.org Core design features • Analytic approach: Assess projected changes in climate and potential impacts through 2100 under lower and higher scenarios of heat-trapping emissions. • Geographic scope: Nine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania (nearly in sync w/RGGI) NECIA Collaborators Synthesis Team Climate Team (ctd) • • James Bradbury, University of Massachusetts, Amherst MA • Art DeGaetano, Cornell University, Ithaca NY • Thomas Huntington, United States Geological Service, Augusta ME • Xin-Zhong Liang, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign IL • Lifeng Luo, Princeton University, Princeton NJ • Edwin Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara CA • Mark Schwartz, University of WisconsinMilwaukee, Milwaukee WI • Justin Sheffield, Princeton University, Princeton NJ • David Wolfe, Cornell University, Ithaca NY • Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois, UrbanaChampaign, IL • Eric Wood, Princeton University, Princeton NJ • • • • Peter Frumhoff (Chair) Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge MA James McCarthy (Vice-Chair) Harvard University, Cambridge MA Jerry Melillo (Vice-Chair) Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole MA Susanne Moser National Ctr for Atmospheric Rsrch, Boulder CO Don Wuebbles University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL Climate Team • Katharine Hayhoe, Co-lead, Texas Tech University, Lubbock TX • Cameron Wake, Co-lead, University of New Hampshire, Durham NH • Bruce Anderson, Boston University, Boston MA Climate across the Northeast is already changing • Annual temperatures (avg.) across NE have warmed almost 2ºF since 1970 • Winters have been warming fastest, at 1.3ºF per decade since 1970 • Winter snowpack is decreasing • Plants are flowering earlier in the spring • Extreme heat in summer is becoming more frequent How will our emissions choices affect future Northeast climate? 1. Start w/ scenarios of future emissions from human activities http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/ How will our emissions choices affect future Northeast climate? 1. Start with scenarios of future emissions from human activities How will our emissions choices affect future Northeast climate? 1. Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities 2. Use scenarios as input to global climate models How will our emissions choices affect future Northeast climate? 1. Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human activities 2. Use scenarios as input to global climate models 3. Downscale global-scale projections to the regional level How will our emissions choices affect future Northeast climate? • Seasonal and annual temperatures • Summer heat index -- how hot a future summer will “feel” • Heatwaves and temperature extremes in cities • Precipitation and winter snow • Extreme precipitation and storms • Hydrology (soil moisture, drought, streamflow, water supply) • Timing of seasons • Ocean temperatures and sea-level rise Rising Temperatures 12 o temperature change ( F) (annual average) 10 8 6 Higher: 6.5-12.5oF observations higher emissions lower emissions Lower: 3.5-6.5oF 4 2 0 -2 -4 1900 2oF warming since 1970 1950 2000 2050 2100 Rising Temperatures (region-wide summer averages) Summer heat index How hot will summers “feel” in Rhode Island Summer heat index How hot will summers “feel” in the Tri-State Region credit: Associated Press Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: Boston Photo credit: Associated Press Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: Hartford Winter Precipitation Change (%) Increasing winter precipitation OBS Higher emissions Lower emissions 60% 40% 20% 0% As temperatures rise, more falling as rain, less as snow -20% -40% 1900 1960s DROUGHT 1950 2000 2050 2100 The Changing Face of Winter Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart Extreme Precipitation • Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast • Under both emissions scenarios – rainfall is expected to become more intense – periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent Associated Press Increasing Summer Drought Short-term drought (1-3 months) (1961-1990) (2070-2099) Lower emissions (2070-2099) Higher emissions • Over course of century, hotter summers are likely to feature increased evaporation rates and reduced soil moisture • By end-of-century – short-term droughts as frequent as once per year in parts of the Northeast, with higher emissions. – only slightly greater risk of drought under the lower emissions scenario. Photo credit: Linnea Shifting Seasons earlier spring, longer summer, later fall By 2070-2099: Photo credit: PhilW • Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2 weeks (lower emissions) or almost 3 weeks (higher emissions) • The growing season is projected to be extended by 4 weeks (lower) and up to 6 weeks (higher) • Typical summer temperatures are expected to extend by 3 to 3.5 weeks (lower) or by 6 weeks (higher) – i.e., nearly a month into the current spring and fall seasons Sea surface temperatures relative to 1961-1990 average (oF) Ocean Temperatures 10 Higher:+8oF Higher emissions 8 6 Lower emissions BOOTHBAY HARBOR Lower: +5oF 4 2 0 -2 -4 1900 1oF warming since 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Sea-Level Rise projected global mean sea level rise (cm)) 100 uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion 80 uncertainty in SLR from ice melt Associated Press Higher emissions 60 Lower emissions Higher: 8-33 inches 40 Lower: 4-21 inches 20 0 -20 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 These estimates do not include the potential for additional increases due to more rapid melting of major polar ice sheets. Summary of Key Findings • Climate is already changing across the Northeast • Climate change is accelerating – Changes expected over next few decades roughly equivalent to change over entire 20th century • Over the next few decades, changes similar under both emissions scenarios (determined by past emissions) • By mid-century, most changes are greater under the higher scenario • By late-century, under the higher scenario: – Many changes are almost twice those seen under lower emissions, including… – Winters warming by 8 -12F and summers by 6 -14F, with dramatic increases in extreme heat in cities NECIA impacts analyses under way Slated for early 2007 release: • Agriculture – dairy, crop productivity, pests & weeds • Forests – ecosystem response, tree habitat change, bird habitat change, insect pests • Coasts – coastal flooding, shoreline change • Marine – cod and lobster habitat • Health – air quality, heat-related health, urban vulnerability • Winter recreation – skiing and snowmobiling • Solutions – mitigation and adaptation Key considerations • Some changes are now unavoidable, but the extent of change and the effect of these changes depend greatly on emissions choices we make today. • Greatest remaining uncertainty about timing and extent of climate impacts is related to our choices over the next decade. • Higher emissions scenario not a ceiling, lower scenario not a floor. • Reductions on the order of 80% below 2000 levels by 2050 (3% per year) can keep emissions below the lower scenario described here. RI, though small, is part of a significant region Industrial 13% Commercial 8% Electric Power 30% Residential 14% Transportation 35% Pie chart source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), State Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (2001). Our emissions choices affect future NE climate Industrial 13% Commercial 8% Electric Power 30% Residential 14% Transportation 35% Pie chart source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), State Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (2001). There is much that can be done! Choices …. For basic information on the NECIA visit: http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org For copies of the reports and more information visit: http://www.climatechoices.org To provide feedback and recommendations: Erika Spanger-Siegfried, NECIA project manager email: [email protected] Extra Slides East Coast Winter Storms • Currently 10-11 storms strike East Coast each winter – More of these reach Northeast states in Nov-Dec; fewer reach in late winter (Jan, Feb, March) • Later this century – Northeast could experience one additional late winter storm per year under higher emissions; requires additional research – Little change with lower emissions Associated Press Drought • Increased evaporation rates and reduce soil moisture in summer • By end-of-century • short-term droughts as frequent as once per year in parts of the Northeast, with higher emissions. • only slightly greater risk of drought under the lower emissions scenario. Summer heat index How hot will summers “feel” in Massachusetts credit: Jerry and Marcy Monkman Summer heat index How hot will summers “feel” in New Hampshire Photo by DirectoryNH.com / Copyright by George C. Jobel Summer heat index How hot will summers “feel” in Maine Photo source: http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/education/advanced.html Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: Boston Photo credit: Associated Press Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: New York City Photo credit: Associated Press Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: Buffalo Photo credit: Aarone Ogle Photo credit: Michele Rodgers