Download UCS NECIA Presentation

Climate Change in
the U.S. Northeast
Ned Raynolds and Erika Spanger-Siegfried
Union of Concerned Scientists
November 30, 2006
About the Northeast Climate
Impacts Assessment (NECIA)
A collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)
and > 40 independent experts to:
•
Develop and communicate a new assessment of climate
change and associated impacts on key climate-sensitive
sectors in the Northeast U.S.
•
Combine state-of-the-art analyses with effective outreach to
provide decision-makers with the best available science upon
which to base informed choices about climate change mitigation
and adaptation.
•
Oct 4, 2006: Release of NECIA climate change report
•
Early 2007: Release of NECIA assessment of impacts, options
for mitigation and adaptation.
Released August 2006
www.climatechoices.org
Core design features
• Analytic approach: Assess projected
changes in climate and potential impacts
through 2100 under lower and higher
scenarios of heat-trapping emissions.
• Geographic scope:
Nine Northeast states, from Maine to
Pennsylvania (nearly in sync w/RGGI)
NECIA Collaborators
Synthesis Team
Climate Team (ctd)
•
•
James Bradbury, University of Massachusetts,
Amherst MA
•
Art DeGaetano, Cornell University, Ithaca NY
•
Thomas Huntington, United States Geological
Service, Augusta ME
•
Xin-Zhong Liang, Illinois State Water Survey,
Champaign IL
•
Lifeng Luo, Princeton University, Princeton NJ
•
Edwin Maurer, Santa Clara University, Santa
Clara CA
•
Mark Schwartz, University of WisconsinMilwaukee, Milwaukee WI
•
Justin Sheffield, Princeton University,
Princeton NJ
•
David Wolfe, Cornell University, Ithaca NY
•
Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois, UrbanaChampaign, IL
•
Eric Wood, Princeton University, Princeton NJ
•
•
•
•
Peter Frumhoff (Chair)
Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge
MA
James McCarthy (Vice-Chair)
Harvard University, Cambridge MA
Jerry Melillo (Vice-Chair)
Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole
MA
Susanne Moser
National Ctr for Atmospheric Rsrch, Boulder
CO
Don Wuebbles
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL
Climate Team
•
Katharine Hayhoe, Co-lead, Texas Tech
University, Lubbock TX
•
Cameron Wake, Co-lead, University of New
Hampshire, Durham NH
•
Bruce Anderson, Boston University, Boston
MA
Climate across the Northeast is
already changing
• Annual temperatures (avg.) across NE
have warmed almost 2ºF since 1970
• Winters have been warming fastest, at
1.3ºF per decade since 1970
• Winter snowpack is decreasing
• Plants are flowering earlier in the spring
• Extreme heat in summer is becoming
more frequent
How will our emissions choices
affect future Northeast climate?
1. Start w/ scenarios of future
emissions from human activities
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/
How will our emissions choices
affect future Northeast climate?
1. Start with scenarios of future emissions from
human activities
How will our emissions choices
affect future Northeast climate?
1. Obtain scenarios of
future emissions from
human activities
2. Use scenarios as
input to global
climate models
How will our emissions choices
affect future Northeast climate?
1. Obtain scenarios of future emissions from human
activities
2. Use scenarios as input to global climate models
3. Downscale global-scale projections to the
regional level
How will our emissions choices
affect future Northeast climate?
•
Seasonal and annual temperatures
•
Summer heat index -- how hot a future summer will “feel”
•
Heatwaves and temperature extremes in cities
•
Precipitation and winter snow
•
Extreme precipitation and storms
•
Hydrology (soil moisture, drought, streamflow, water supply)
•
Timing of seasons
•
Ocean temperatures and sea-level rise
Rising Temperatures
12
o
temperature change ( F)
(annual average)
10
8
6
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
observations
higher emissions
lower emissions
Lower: 3.5-6.5oF
4
2
0
-2
-4
1900
2oF warming since
1970
1950
2000
2050
2100
Rising Temperatures
(region-wide summer averages)
Summer heat index
How hot will summers “feel” in
Rhode Island
Summer heat index
How hot will summers “feel” in
the Tri-State Region
credit: Associated Press
Heatwaves and Temperature
Extremes: Boston
Photo credit: Associated Press
Heatwaves and Temperature
Extremes: Hartford
Winter Precipitation Change (%)
Increasing winter precipitation
OBS
Higher emissions
Lower emissions
60%
40%
20%
0%
As
temperatures
rise, more
falling as rain,
less as snow
-20%
-40%
1900
1960s DROUGHT
1950
2000
2050
2100
The Changing Face of Winter
Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart
Extreme Precipitation
• Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent
across the Northeast
• Under both emissions scenarios
– rainfall is expected to become more intense
– periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more
frequent
Associated Press
Increasing Summer
Drought
Short-term drought (1-3 months)
(1961-1990)
(2070-2099)
Lower emissions
(2070-2099)
Higher emissions
• Over course of century, hotter
summers are likely to feature
increased evaporation rates and
reduced soil moisture
• By end-of-century
– short-term droughts as frequent as once
per year in parts of the Northeast, with
higher emissions.
– only slightly greater risk of drought under
the lower emissions scenario.
Photo credit: Linnea
Shifting Seasons
earlier spring,
longer summer, later fall
By 2070-2099:
Photo credit: PhilW
• Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2
weeks (lower emissions) or almost 3
weeks (higher emissions)
• The growing season is projected to
be extended by 4 weeks (lower) and
up to 6 weeks (higher)
• Typical summer temperatures are expected to extend by 3 to
3.5 weeks (lower) or by 6 weeks (higher) – i.e., nearly a month
into the current spring and fall seasons
Sea surface temperatures
relative to 1961-1990 average (oF)
Ocean Temperatures
10
Higher:+8oF
Higher emissions
8
6
Lower emissions
BOOTHBAY HARBOR
Lower: +5oF
4
2
0
-2
-4
1900
1oF warming since
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Sea-Level Rise
projected global mean sea level rise (cm))
100
uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion
80
uncertainty in SLR from ice melt
Associated Press
Higher emissions
60
Lower emissions
Higher: 8-33 inches
40
Lower: 4-21 inches
20
0
-20
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
These estimates do not
include the potential for
additional increases due
to more rapid melting of
major polar ice sheets.
Summary of Key Findings
• Climate is already changing across the Northeast
• Climate change is accelerating
– Changes expected over next few decades roughly
equivalent to change over entire 20th century
• Over the next few decades, changes similar under
both emissions scenarios (determined by past
emissions)
• By mid-century, most changes are greater under
the higher scenario
• By late-century, under the higher scenario:
– Many changes are almost twice those seen under lower
emissions, including…
– Winters warming by 8 -12F and summers by 6 -14F, with
dramatic increases in extreme heat in cities
NECIA impacts analyses under way
Slated for early 2007 release:
• Agriculture – dairy, crop productivity, pests & weeds
• Forests – ecosystem response, tree habitat change,
bird habitat change, insect pests
• Coasts – coastal flooding, shoreline change
• Marine – cod and lobster habitat
• Health – air quality, heat-related health, urban
vulnerability
• Winter recreation – skiing and snowmobiling
• Solutions – mitigation and adaptation
Key considerations
• Some changes are now unavoidable, but the extent of change
and the effect of these changes depend greatly on emissions
choices we make today.
• Greatest remaining uncertainty about timing and extent of
climate impacts is related to our choices over the next decade.
• Higher emissions scenario not a ceiling, lower scenario not a
floor.
• Reductions on the order of 80% below 2000 levels by 2050
(3% per year) can keep emissions below the lower scenario
described here.
RI, though small, is part of a
significant region
Industrial
13%
Commercial
8%
Electric Power
30%
Residential
14%
Transportation
35%
Pie chart source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), State Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (2001).
Our emissions choices affect
future NE climate
Industrial
13%
Commercial
8%
Electric Power
30%
Residential
14%
Transportation
35%
Pie chart source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), State Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (2001).
There is much that can be done!
Choices ….
For basic information on the NECIA visit:
http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org
For copies of the reports and more information visit:
http://www.climatechoices.org
To provide feedback and recommendations:
Erika Spanger-Siegfried, NECIA project manager
email: [email protected]
Extra Slides
East Coast Winter Storms
• Currently 10-11 storms strike East Coast each winter
– More of these reach Northeast states in Nov-Dec; fewer
reach in late winter (Jan, Feb, March)
• Later this century
– Northeast could experience one additional late winter storm
per year under higher emissions; requires additional
research
– Little change with lower emissions
Associated Press
Drought
• Increased evaporation rates and
reduce soil moisture in summer
• By end-of-century
• short-term droughts as frequent as once
per year in parts of the Northeast, with
higher emissions.
• only slightly greater risk of drought under
the lower emissions scenario.
Summer heat index
How hot will summers “feel” in
Massachusetts
credit: Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Summer heat index
How hot will summers “feel” in
New Hampshire
Photo by DirectoryNH.com /
Copyright by George C. Jobel
Summer heat index
How hot
will summers “feel” in
Maine
Photo source: http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/education/advanced.html
Heatwaves and Temperature
Extremes: Boston
Photo credit: Associated Press
Heatwaves and Temperature
Extremes: New York City
Photo credit: Associated Press
Heatwaves and Temperature
Extremes: Buffalo
Photo credit: Aarone Ogle
Photo credit: Michele Rodgers