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Climate Change in New York Findings of the UCS Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment and The Cornell Climate Impacts Initiative Art DeGaetano Professor, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University Director Northeast Regional Climate Center The Climate of New York is Already Changing • Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2º F since 1970 • Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970 • The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950 • There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970 Northeast Winter Temp Significant Change in Winter Climate! Boston 42.5 o 4.8 F 42 Latitude o(N) 41.5 41 New York o 40.5 4.8 Philadelphia 40 39.5 Washington, DC 39 38.5 30 31 32 33 34 35 o Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature ( F) 36 The Precipitation Climatology is also Changing • Average rainfall has increased by more than 3 inches since 1950 • There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year since 1950 • Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in some parts of the state since 1970 • In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term increase in snowfall New York Extreme Precipitation Events (>2 inches in 48 hrs) These Changes Affect Design Criteria for Flooding Central Park 2-yr 50-yr 100-yr 1940 - 1960 3.10 6.21 7.22 1970-2006 3.86 7.31 8.39 2.43 4.46 5.08 2.49 5.73 6.86 Ithaca 2-yr 50-yr 100-yr Lake Effect Snow Adirondacks Snow Cover What About Beyond 2007? Anthropogenic Forcing Clicker Question • What are the major sources of anthropogenic methane a) b) c) d) Landfills Fossil fuel combustion Agriculture Plastic manufacturing Emission Scenarios HIGHER A1FI LOWER B1 Source: IPCC 2001 Projecting Climate From Global to Local Scale 12 o temperature change ( F) Projections and Observations 10 8 6 Higher: 6.5-12.5oF observations higher emissions lower emissions Lower: 3.5-6.5oF 4 2 0 -2 -4 1900 2oF warming since 1970 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/) Timing of Seasons By 2070-2099: • Spring will be arriving earlier by 1-2 weeks (lower) or almost 3 weeks (higher) • The growing season is projected to be Lilacs: 4 days earlier extended by 4 weeks (lower) and up to 6 Apples: 9 days earlier Grapes: 6 days earlier weeks (higher) • Summer is expected to arrive earlier by 11.5 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher) and stay longer by 2 weeks (lower) or 3 weeks (higher) Increasing annual precipitation Extreme Precipitation • Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast • Under both emissions scenarios – rainfall is expected to become more intense. – periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent. Anticipating Impacts • Geographic scope: Nine Northeast states, • Sectoral scope: coastal, marine, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, health, solutions. • Analytic approach: Assess potential impacts of climate change through 2100 under lower and higher scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions Sea-Level Rise projected global mean sea level rise (cm)) 100 uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion 80 uncertainty in SLR from ice melt Higher emissions 60 Lower emissions 40 Associated Press Higher: 8-33 inches Lower: 4-21 inches 20 0 -20 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 These estimates do not include the potential for additional increases due to more rapid melting of major polar ice sheets. Clicker Question What causes more than 50% of this sea level rise? a) Melting of mountain glaciers b) Melting of Greenland c) Melting of Antarctica d) Thermal expansion of water NYC : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years under the Higher-Emissions Scenario Credit: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). •More Coastal Erosion •Wetland Inundation and Loss Lake Ontario Levels Impacts on Human Health •Extreme Heat •Air Quality •Pollen Allergens Heatwaves and Temperature Extremes: New York City Photo credit: Associated Press Increasing Risk of Poor Air Quality Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/) Changes in Suitable Climate Conditions For Different Forest Types by Late-Century spruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White; ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry. Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). Jerry and Marcy Monkman Impacts on Agriculture •Dairy •Crops •Pests and Weeds Percent Years Meeting 1000-hr Winter-Chill Requirement (dark orange- most years meet requirement) Days Below -4 F (dark orange- potential spread of Kudzu range) July Dairy Thermal Heat Index (THI > 72 (yellow-orange to red) reduces milk production) The Changing Face of Winter Intraresearch, d.b.a. MapMart Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/) Key Climate and Impacts Findings • Changes consistent with global warming are already evident across New York • Over next few decades, changes similar under both emissions scenarios • By mid-century, most changes are greater under the higher scenario • By late-century, under the higher scenario many changes almost twice those seen with lower emissions Meeting the Climate Challenge •Reducing Emissions •Adapting to unavoidable climate change Keys to Adaptation Reducing New York Emissions • Electric power • Renewable energy • Buildings Yahoo!/REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine • Transportation • Industry • Forest/agricultural land management • Methane recovery Harbec Plastics Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org Questions?