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Climate Science Context Brian Hoskins Director Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading The Earth’s energy budget Kiehl and Trenberth 1997 Green house gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone,… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861) The Earth’s energy budget Kiehl and Trenberth 1997 Extra GHGs: heat lost from higher levels where it is colder warming IPCC (2007) Changes in Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from Ice-Core and Modern Data Causes of the current imbalance in the energy budget IPCC 2007 Published estimates of of NH temperature in the past 1000 years IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment Report: “Global Warming is unequivocal” Since 1970, rise in: Global surface temperatures Tropospheric temperatures Global ocean temperatures Global sea level Water vapour Rainfall intensity Precipitation in extratropics Hurricane intensity Drought Extreme high temperatures Heat waves Decrease in: NH Snow extent Arctic sea ice Glaciers Cold temperatures 20th Century Continental Temperatures: Observed & Modelled with & without anthropogenic forcings IPCC 2007 IPCC (2007) Surface Temperature Projections 2020s & 2090s relative to 1980-99 Global mean 2020s 2090s Projected patterns at end of 21st century: Change (%) in precipitation for one scenario Dec-Feb June-Aug Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions This continues the observed patterns in recent trends IPCC 2007 Risk of large changes in ocean circulation and the release of methane cathrates Dangerous climate change? © Crown copyright Met Office Risk of significant loss of rainforest. Few ecosystems can adapt. +? °C +3 °C Melting of Greenland ice sheet may become irreversible +2 °C Some marine ecosystems suffer irreversible change. Ocean acidification is already a risk. +1 °C Possible targets for stabilisation levels Percentage likelihood of warming exceeding 2 and 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels Today Stern target CO2 equivalent stabilisation level For 2 ºC target For 3 ºC target 430 ppm 450 ppm 550 ppm 60 % 80 % 99 % 10 % 20 % 70 % © Crown copyright Met Office Possible CO2 Emissions for 450ppm Stabilisation 45 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 42 Gt CCS in industry CCS in power generation Nuclear Renewables Switching from coal to gas End Use electricity efficiency Reference Scenario 40 Gt of CO2 35 30 25 End Use fuel efficiency 27 Gt 450 Stabilisation Case 20 23 Gt 15 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 RCEP (2000): Energy in a changing climate © OECD/IEA 2007 Conclusion Urgent need to really start •Adaptation •Mitigation •Geo-engineering? It is difficult to conceive that any significant reduction in the level of “dangerous” climate change realised by the end of the century can be achieved without CCS being a major player. Greenland Ice Sheet Projections MetO Hadley Centre